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TI

ThredUp Inc. (TDUP)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • ThredUp delivered record Q3 revenue of $82.2M (+34% YoY) with gross margin of 79.4% and Adjusted EBITDA margin of 4.6%, driven by record new buyer acquisition (+54% YoY) and strong order growth (+37% YoY) .
  • Results were above Wall Street consensus: revenue $82.2M vs $77.6M* and EPS -$0.03 vs -$0.043*; management raised Q4 and full-year revenue outlooks while maintaining margin targets .
  • Management cited earlier-quarter marketing and inbound processing investment, low CACs, improved conversion from AI-driven features, and a richer “premium” supply mix lifting ASPs as key drivers; Q4 guide embeds seasonal holiday headwinds and marketing pullback .
  • Strategic updates included a full brand re-launch, new personalization (Daily Edit/Trend Report), the beta launch of direct peer-to-peer (P2P) selling, and a new RaaS partnership with Cotopaxi—broadening supply and engagement vectors into 2026 .
  • Near-term catalysts: sustained buyer growth, raised FY revenue (+$9M at midpoint), P2P rollout, and RaaS wins; risks include holiday wallet share shift to new gifts and continued macro uncertainty .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record revenue and accelerating growth: Q3 revenue $82.2M (+34% YoY), 4th straight quarter of acceleration; Adjusted EBITDA $3.8M (4.6% margin) vs $0.3M (0.5%) LY .
  • Customer acquisition and engagement: New buyer growth +54% YoY (best in company history), Active Buyers +26% YoY to ~1.57M, Orders +37% YoY; October was the best month ever for new customers (+81% YoY), tied to historically low CACs .
  • Strategic product advances: Rebrand plus AI-powered “Daily Edit” (100-item personalized feed) and “Trend Report” improved conversion; launch of direct P2P selling (closed beta) and new RaaS win with Cotopaxi expand supply and partner channels .

Selected management quotes:

  • “We acquired more new customers in the third quarter than at any other time in our history…new buyer acquisition up 54% YoY.”
  • “This was a major technical advancement in our personalization capabilities, powered by AI models we trained in house.”
  • “We are launching direct selling on ThredUP…we believe [it] will be a strong long-term EBITDA driver.”

What Went Wrong

  • GAAP profitability still negative: Loss from continuing operations of $(4.2)M (−5.2% of revenue), albeit improved vs $(10.4)M (−16.8%) LY .
  • Seasonal step-down ahead: Q4 revenue guided to $76–78M (~+14% YoY midpoint), reflecting typical holiday slowdown for resale and planned marketing pullback amid higher ad costs .
  • Macro caution: Management remains wary of holiday wallet share shifts to new gifts and overall consumer softness despite potential tariff-related tailwinds for resale value positioning .

Financial Results

P&L Snapshot (GAAP unless noted)

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($M)$61.5 $77.7 $82.2
Gross Margin (%)79.3% 79.5% 79.4%
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$0.31 $3.02 $3.77
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)0.5% 3.9% 4.6%
Loss per Share – Continuing Ops ($)$(0.09) $(0.04) $(0.03)

Notes: Adjusted EBITDA excludes SBC, D&A, interest, taxes, severance/other and gains; see reconciliations .

KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Active Buyers (000s)1,370 1,465 1,568
Orders (000s)1,371 1,535 1,608

Additional highlights: New buyers +54% YoY; Active Buyers +26% YoY; Orders +37% YoY .

Consensus vs Actuals and Forward Benchmarks

MetricQ3 2025 ActualQ3 2025 Consensus*Q4 2025 Company GuideQ4 2025 Consensus*
Revenue ($M)$82.2 $77.6*$76.0–$78.0 $77.2*
EPS (Primary) ($)$(0.03) $(0.043)*NA$(0.04)*

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($M)Q4 2025$73–$75 $76–$78 Raised
Revenue ($M)FY 2025$298–$302 $307–$309 Raised
Gross Margin (%)FY 202578.0–79.0 79.0–79.2 Raised
Adj. EBITDA Margin (%)Q4 2025~3.0 ~3.0 Maintained
Adj. EBITDA Margin (%)FY 2025~4.2 ~4.2 Maintained
D&A ($M)Q4 2025~3.2 ~3.2 Maintained
Stock-Based Comp ($M)Q4 2025~3.6 ~3.8 Raised
Weighted Avg Shares (MM)Q4 2025~129 ~126 Lowered

CFO noted the Q4 revenue raise is ~$3M above prior outlook; guide embeds seasonal holiday slowdown and ad-market CAC pressure .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
AI/Personalization & Conversion18+ months into AI-led journey; features like visual/image search and social commerce improved signup-to-purchase conversion (+18%) .Launch of “Daily Edit” and “Trend Report” powered by in-house AI embeddings; continued conversion gains; AI-generated content at scale .Strengthening
Marketing Efficiency/LTV:CACLower CACs driven by conversion improvements; aggressive but disciplined spend (high teens–20% of revenue) .Historically low CACs; October best-ever new customer month (+81% YoY) .Improving
Premium Supply/ASPPremium mix drove higher ASPs; gross margin +70 bps YoY in Q2 .Premium kits >20% of supply; supports higher ASPs and margins .Positive mix shift
RaaS (Resale-as-a-Service)Open-source RaaS model; re-engaged >60 brands; longer enterprise cycles .Cotopaxi launch (shop + clean-out) announced; pipeline aided by contract renewals into 2026 .Momentum building
Direct P2P SellingNot launched.Closed beta; focus on casual sellers, vetting, buyer returns/“insurance”, and tool monetization; goal to be long-term EBITDA driver .New growth vector
Macro/TariffsDe minimis closure and tariffs seen as potential tailwinds for resale value vs fast fashion .Tariffs remain tailwind for acquisition; cautious on holiday wallet share shift to new gifts .Mixed: tailwind vs holiday headwind

Management Commentary

  • Strategy and drivers: “Revenue growth accelerated to 34% year over year…driven by exceptional customer growth and orders…we acquired more new customers in the third quarter than at any other time in our history” .
  • Product & AI: “Daily Edit…100 items refreshed daily…powered by AI models…real time user and item embeddings…Trend Report…AI to combine macro and social trends…generate imagery and style feeds” .
  • Direct selling (P2P): Focus on casual sellers with vetting; no listing fees; buyer returns enabled via ThredUp’s infrastructure; monetize via buyer fees/returns “insurance” and seller tools; expected to be a long-term EBITDA driver .
  • Profitability approach: “Maintain our gross margin efficiency, gradually expand the bottom line, but largely reinvest incremental dollars…into product improvements, marketing spend and long term innovation” .
  • Long-term ambition: “Path to be a Rule of 40 company…long-term EBITDA model 20–25% implies growth in high teens to 20%” .

Q&A Highlights

  • 2026 framing: Initial planning for low double-digit revenue growth with slightly better EBITDA expansion than 2025 (~+90 bps in 2025); more detail in March .
  • Q4 cadence: October strong; guide embeds holiday shift to new gifts and higher CACs; sequential step-down typical for resale .
  • RaaS pipeline: Contract renewal cycles drive timing; renewed momentum with brands; Cotopaxi announced; more expected over next months .
  • P2P unit economics: Lower top-line per transaction but superior margins on a variable basis; vetting and returns capability differentiate experience; monetize via buyer fees and optional returns .
  • Marketing: Historically low CACs; improved conversion from AI; plan to continue investing with disciplined LTV:CAC .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025: Revenue $82.2M vs $77.6M*; EPS $(0.03) vs $(0.043)*—both above consensus .
  • Q4 2025: Company revenue guide $76–$78M bracketing consensus of ~$77.2M*; no EPS guidance .
  • Note on EBITDA: Company focuses on Adjusted EBITDA (+$3.8M; 4.6% margin) while S&P’s “EBITDA” estimate/actual may not be comparable to management’s non-GAAP measure .

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Growth flywheel intact: Record new buyer acquisition, improving conversion, and premium supply mix drove record revenue and margin expansion; management plans to keep leaning into marketing/product to sustain momentum .
  • Beat-and-raise quarter: Revenue and EPS exceeded consensus; FY revenue and gross margin outlook raised, signaling confidence despite holiday seasonality .
  • Product differentiation via AI: New personalization features (Daily Edit/Trend Report) and improved imagery/merchandising are lowering CACs and lifting conversion—a durable competitive edge .
  • New growth vectors for 2026: Direct P2P selling (beta) and RaaS wins (e.g., Cotopaxi) expand supply and monetization pathways, with management planning cautious, quality-focused rollouts .
  • Profitability path: GAAP losses narrowing; free cash flow positive $2.38M in Q3 and $3.37M YTD; FY Adjusted EBITDA margin guided ~4.2% with modest expansion planned in 2026 .
  • Watch holiday dynamics: Q4 guide acknowledges seasonal and macro headwinds; monitor marketing efficiency and buyer retention into Q1'26 .
  • Stock catalysts: Continued buyer/order growth, execution on P2P rollout, additional RaaS partnerships, and sustained conversion/CAC efficiency could support multiple and estimate revisions .