TI
ThredUp Inc. (TDUP)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- ThredUp delivered record Q3 revenue of $82.2M (+34% YoY) with gross margin of 79.4% and Adjusted EBITDA margin of 4.6%, driven by record new buyer acquisition (+54% YoY) and strong order growth (+37% YoY) .
- Results were above Wall Street consensus: revenue $82.2M vs $77.6M* and EPS -$0.03 vs -$0.043*; management raised Q4 and full-year revenue outlooks while maintaining margin targets .
- Management cited earlier-quarter marketing and inbound processing investment, low CACs, improved conversion from AI-driven features, and a richer “premium” supply mix lifting ASPs as key drivers; Q4 guide embeds seasonal holiday headwinds and marketing pullback .
- Strategic updates included a full brand re-launch, new personalization (Daily Edit/Trend Report), the beta launch of direct peer-to-peer (P2P) selling, and a new RaaS partnership with Cotopaxi—broadening supply and engagement vectors into 2026 .
- Near-term catalysts: sustained buyer growth, raised FY revenue (+$9M at midpoint), P2P rollout, and RaaS wins; risks include holiday wallet share shift to new gifts and continued macro uncertainty .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record revenue and accelerating growth: Q3 revenue $82.2M (+34% YoY), 4th straight quarter of acceleration; Adjusted EBITDA $3.8M (4.6% margin) vs $0.3M (0.5%) LY .
- Customer acquisition and engagement: New buyer growth +54% YoY (best in company history), Active Buyers +26% YoY to ~1.57M, Orders +37% YoY; October was the best month ever for new customers (+81% YoY), tied to historically low CACs .
- Strategic product advances: Rebrand plus AI-powered “Daily Edit” (100-item personalized feed) and “Trend Report” improved conversion; launch of direct P2P selling (closed beta) and new RaaS win with Cotopaxi expand supply and partner channels .
Selected management quotes:
- “We acquired more new customers in the third quarter than at any other time in our history…new buyer acquisition up 54% YoY.”
- “This was a major technical advancement in our personalization capabilities, powered by AI models we trained in house.”
- “We are launching direct selling on ThredUP…we believe [it] will be a strong long-term EBITDA driver.”
What Went Wrong
- GAAP profitability still negative: Loss from continuing operations of $(4.2)M (−5.2% of revenue), albeit improved vs $(10.4)M (−16.8%) LY .
- Seasonal step-down ahead: Q4 revenue guided to $76–78M (~+14% YoY midpoint), reflecting typical holiday slowdown for resale and planned marketing pullback amid higher ad costs .
- Macro caution: Management remains wary of holiday wallet share shifts to new gifts and overall consumer softness despite potential tariff-related tailwinds for resale value positioning .
Financial Results
P&L Snapshot (GAAP unless noted)
Notes: Adjusted EBITDA excludes SBC, D&A, interest, taxes, severance/other and gains; see reconciliations .
KPIs
Additional highlights: New buyers +54% YoY; Active Buyers +26% YoY; Orders +37% YoY .
Consensus vs Actuals and Forward Benchmarks
*Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Guidance Changes
CFO noted the Q4 revenue raise is ~$3M above prior outlook; guide embeds seasonal holiday slowdown and ad-market CAC pressure .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- Strategy and drivers: “Revenue growth accelerated to 34% year over year…driven by exceptional customer growth and orders…we acquired more new customers in the third quarter than at any other time in our history” .
- Product & AI: “Daily Edit…100 items refreshed daily…powered by AI models…real time user and item embeddings…Trend Report…AI to combine macro and social trends…generate imagery and style feeds” .
- Direct selling (P2P): Focus on casual sellers with vetting; no listing fees; buyer returns enabled via ThredUp’s infrastructure; monetize via buyer fees/returns “insurance” and seller tools; expected to be a long-term EBITDA driver .
- Profitability approach: “Maintain our gross margin efficiency, gradually expand the bottom line, but largely reinvest incremental dollars…into product improvements, marketing spend and long term innovation” .
- Long-term ambition: “Path to be a Rule of 40 company…long-term EBITDA model 20–25% implies growth in high teens to 20%” .
Q&A Highlights
- 2026 framing: Initial planning for low double-digit revenue growth with slightly better EBITDA expansion than 2025 (~+90 bps in 2025); more detail in March .
- Q4 cadence: October strong; guide embeds holiday shift to new gifts and higher CACs; sequential step-down typical for resale .
- RaaS pipeline: Contract renewal cycles drive timing; renewed momentum with brands; Cotopaxi announced; more expected over next months .
- P2P unit economics: Lower top-line per transaction but superior margins on a variable basis; vetting and returns capability differentiate experience; monetize via buyer fees and optional returns .
- Marketing: Historically low CACs; improved conversion from AI; plan to continue investing with disciplined LTV:CAC .
Estimates Context
- Q3 2025: Revenue $82.2M vs $77.6M*; EPS $(0.03) vs $(0.043)*—both above consensus .
- Q4 2025: Company revenue guide $76–$78M bracketing consensus of ~$77.2M*; no EPS guidance .
- Note on EBITDA: Company focuses on Adjusted EBITDA (+$3.8M; 4.6% margin) while S&P’s “EBITDA” estimate/actual may not be comparable to management’s non-GAAP measure .
*Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Growth flywheel intact: Record new buyer acquisition, improving conversion, and premium supply mix drove record revenue and margin expansion; management plans to keep leaning into marketing/product to sustain momentum .
- Beat-and-raise quarter: Revenue and EPS exceeded consensus; FY revenue and gross margin outlook raised, signaling confidence despite holiday seasonality .
- Product differentiation via AI: New personalization features (Daily Edit/Trend Report) and improved imagery/merchandising are lowering CACs and lifting conversion—a durable competitive edge .
- New growth vectors for 2026: Direct P2P selling (beta) and RaaS wins (e.g., Cotopaxi) expand supply and monetization pathways, with management planning cautious, quality-focused rollouts .
- Profitability path: GAAP losses narrowing; free cash flow positive $2.38M in Q3 and $3.37M YTD; FY Adjusted EBITDA margin guided ~4.2% with modest expansion planned in 2026 .
- Watch holiday dynamics: Q4 guide acknowledges seasonal and macro headwinds; monitor marketing efficiency and buyer retention into Q1'26 .
- Stock catalysts: Continued buyer/order growth, execution on P2P rollout, additional RaaS partnerships, and sustained conversion/CAC efficiency could support multiple and estimate revisions .