TI
ThredUp Inc. (TDUP)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Revenue grew 9.5% year over year to $67.3M on continuing operations, with record gross margin of 80.4% and Adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 7.4% as marketplace flow-through improved .
- The quarter materially exceeded prior Q4 guidance: revenue, gross margin, and Adjusted EBITDA all beat the ranges set in November; new buyer conversion rates hit all-time highs, aided by AI Image Search (+85% conversion vs standard search) and improved marketplace product features; Orders rose 2% YoY while Active Buyers declined 6% YoY .
- Strategic focus sharpened: ThredUp closed the Remix divestiture, restating all historicals to reflect Europe as discontinued operations; management emphasized U.S.-only execution, premium kits (now >10% of new listings), and scaling inbound processing capacity .
- 2025 outlook: Q1 revenue $67.5–$69.5M, GM 77–79%, Adj. EBITDA margin 2.5–3.5%; FY revenue $270–$280M (+6% YoY midpoint), GM 77–79%, Adj. EBITDA margin ~flat vs 2024 (3.3%); management targets positive full-year free cash flow and >40% reduction in stock-based comp .
- Potential stock reaction catalysts: sustained AI-driven conversion improvements, accelerating growth through higher marketing investment with sub-12-month paybacks, premium kit mix shift (higher ASPs), and explicit path to annual positive FCF; note near-term gross margin pressure from new buyer incentives .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
- What Went Well
- Record Q4 gross margin of 80.4% and Adjusted EBITDA margin of 7.4% as revenue reaccelerated, demonstrating strong incremental flow-through in the marketplace model .
- AI Image Search adoption and product innovations drove all-time-high new buyer conversion; “sessions with an image search have an 85% higher conversion rate,” noted the CEO, and 360° photos lifted 30-day sell-through up to 12% by category .
- Premium selling service scaled: premium kits are live to 100% of sellers, now >10% of new listings; average listing prices are ~50% higher vs traditional kits, supporting mix and margin quality .
- What Went Wrong
- Active Buyers declined 6% YoY to 1.274M despite strong Q4 acquisition; management expects an inflection to positive in Q1 but acknowledged the decline in trailing-12-month measure .
- 2025 gross margin guide implies slight decline vs 2024 as the mix tilts to first-time buyers needing higher incentives; once repeat, discount rates are >1000 bps lower, but near-term pressure is expected .
- Cash and investments fell by ~$4.2M QoQ in continuing ops in Q4 (working capital, capex, debt repayment, and $2M final funding for Remix), highlighting continued discipline but a tighter cash posture .
Financial Results
Segment revenue breakdown (continuing operations; restated to exclude Remix for all periods presented):
Key KPIs
Vs. prior guidance (U.S. Q4 2024): Previous guidance set at revenue $58.0–$60.0M, GM 78.5–79.5%, Adj. EBITDA margin 0.0–2.0% ; Actuals were revenue $67.3M, GM 80.4%, Adj. EBITDA margin 7.4% — a broad-based beat across metrics .
- Significant surprise: Bold outperformance vs guidance driven by stronger conversion, marketing effectiveness, and focus on core U.S. ops; preliminary release flagged beats on all elements ahead of official reporting .
Guidance Changes
Additional: Management reiterated a plan to reach positive free cash flow on an annual basis in 2025 and to reduce stock-based compensation by over 40% year over year .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We are proud to have closed out 2024 with a definitive return to growth, while also delivering strong bottom-line results.” — James Reinhart, CEO .
- “Since inception, 1.3 million image searches have been performed, and sessions with an image search have an 85% higher conversion rate.” — James Reinhart (prepared remarks) .
- “Adjusted EBITDA was $5 million or 7.4% of revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024… our marketplace model generates powerful margin flow-through on incremental revenue.” — Sean Sobers, CFO .
- “We are planning to reach positive free cash flow on an annual basis [in 2025]… we expect to reduce stock-based compensation by over 40%.” — Sean Sobers .
- “Premium kits now make up more than 10% of newly listed items… average listing prices for items from premium bags are 50% higher than traditional bags.” — James Reinhart .
Q&A Highlights
- Pacing across 2025: revenue growth expected to accelerate Q1→Q2→Q3, then remain positive in Q4; EBITDA rate similar in Q2 to Q1, peaks in Q3, dips in Q4 as they prepare for 2026 growth; gross margin broadly consistent by quarter .
- Marketing intensity and paybacks: ~19% of revenue on marketing; LTV/CAC trending to all-time highs; sub-1-year payback maintained; increased spend justified by improved product experience and AI-driven conversion .
- Capacity & CapEx: sufficient DC capacity; increasing turns and item selection quality; limited capex needs, with maintenance capex ~$8M in 2025 (CFO context) .
- Stock-based comp: strategic shift to more cash and fewer shares to reduce dilution; expected >40% reduction in 2025 SBC (~$14.5M guided) .
- Tariffs effect & pricing: potential CPC tailwind if ad rates decline; secondhand demand could benefit as new apparel prices rise; dynamic pricing engine adjusts to demand/supply and market pricing .
Estimates Context
- Wall Street consensus estimates from S&P Global (Capital IQ) were unavailable at time of query due to request limits; as a result, explicit comparisons to sell-side consensus for revenue/EPS/EBITDA cannot be provided at this time. If desired, we can refresh and add consensus comparisons once access is available [GetEstimates error].
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Q4 delivered a comprehensive beat vs prior guidance, with record gross margin and materially higher Adjusted EBITDA margin, validating marketplace leverage on incremental growth .
- AI product velocity is a differentiator: image search, 360° photos, and automated measurements are measurably improving conversion and sell-through, supporting higher marketing ROI and strong paybacks .
- Mix shift to premium kits (>10% of listings; ~50% higher ASPs) should sustain gross profit quality even as near-term gross margin is pressured by new buyer incentives; watch repeat buyer transition to normalize discounts (>1000 bps lower) .
- Strategic clarity: Europe divestiture complete; U.S.-only focus with restated comparables reduces complexity and highlights the core earnings power of the marketplace .
- 2025 setup: guided to +6% revenue growth with stable Adjusted EBITDA margins vs 2024 and positive annual free cash flow; monitor quarterly pacing (peak EBITDA in Q3) and marketing spend execution (~19% of revenue) .
- Liquidity discipline remains essential; Q4 continuing ops cash/investments declined ~$4.2M on working capital, capex, and debt repayment plus $2M Remix funding; FY maintenance capex ~$8M guided .
- Potential macro tailwinds: tariff-driven new apparel price increases could push consumers toward secondhand; CPC rate declines could further improve acquisition efficiency; pricing algorithms are dynamic and responsive .