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TE

T1 Energy Inc. (TE)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 revenue was $132.77M and diluted EPS was -$0.21; both missed Wall Street consensus of $139.90M revenue and -$0.13 EPS. Bold miss: revenue (-$7.13M) and EPS (-$0.08). Values retrieved from S&P Global* .
  • 2025 EBITDA guidance maintained at $25–$50M with risks skewed toward or below the low end given a higher mix of merchant sales and policy/tariff uncertainties; production guidance maintained at 2.6–3.0 GW and the company is sold out at the low end for 2025 .
  • Commercial momentum: signed a 473 MW module sales agreement with a major U.S. utility; announced an expanded U.S. wafer and polysilicon supply agreement with Corning to support FEOC compliance and domestic content goals .
  • Potential stock reaction catalyst: strengthening domestic supply chain narrative (Corning agreement), sold-out 2025 low end production, and expectation to begin monetizing Section 45X PTCs in Q3 2025 . Some coverage noted a pre-market surge tied to the Corning announcement .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Signed 473 MW H2 2025 sales agreement with a major U.S. utility; sold out for 2025 at the low end of the 2.6 GW production plan at G1_Dallas .
  • Expanded supply agreement with Corning to source hyper-pure polysilicon and U.S.-made wafers, advancing FEOC compliance and domestic content leadership, with anticipated benefits including supply surety and traceability .
  • “Interest in domestic solar is accelerating… demand from hyperscale AI projects is phenomenal,” said CEO Daniel Barcelo, reinforcing the AI-driven demand thesis and domestic supply chain buildout (“It is clear the time to build a domestic solar supply chain is right now”) .

What Went Wrong

  • Bold miss on Q2 vs consensus: revenue ($132.77M vs $139.90M) and EPS (-$0.21 vs -$0.13). Values retrieved from S&P Global* .
  • Shipment timing later than anticipated in Q2 and a higher mix of merchant sales expected in H2, with AD/CVD and reciprocal tariff uncertainties impacting costs and contract economics .
  • Liquidity reflected timing of payments/receipts and elevated inventory investment; cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash ended Q2 at $46.66M, down from Q1 ($51.09M) and Q4 ($76.65M) .

Financial Results

Summary Financials vs Prior Periods and Estimates

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q2 2025 ConsensusNotes
Revenue ($USD Millions)$2.94 $64.65 $132.77 $139.90*Miss by $7.13M (bold)
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$1.23 $28.98 $32.76 N/A
Gross Margin (%)41.8% (1.23/2.94) 44.8% (28.98/64.65) 24.7% (32.76/132.77) N/AComputed from reported figures
SG&A ($USD Millions)$31.38 $52.59 $61.97 N/A
Net Loss Attributable to Common ($USD Millions)$(367.23) $(17.13) $(32.80) N/A
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(2.59) $(0.11) $(0.21) $(0.13)*Miss by $0.08 (bold)

Note: Consensus values marked with * are Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Revenue Mix (Q2 2025)

ComponentQ2 2025 ($USD Millions)
Net sales (non-related party)$66.47
Net sales – related party$66.30
Total net sales$132.77

KPIs

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Cash, cash equivalents & restricted cash ($USD Millions)$76.65 $51.09 $46.66
Inventory ($USD Millions)$274.55 $333.03 $326.22
Deferred Revenue – Current ($USD Millions)$48.16 $61.53 $90.94
Production (YTD)N/A688.3 MW through May 11 1,222 MW through Aug 11
2025 Production Guidance (GW)3.4 2.6–3.0 2.6–3.0

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
EBITDA ($USD Millions)FY 2025$75–$125 (Q4 2024) $25–$50 (Q1 reduced, Q2 maintained; H2 risks skewed) Lowered in Q1; Maintained in Q2
Module Production (GW)FY 20253.4 (Q4 2024) 2.6–3.0 (Q1 reduced, Q2 maintained) Lowered in Q1; Maintained in Q2
Integrated Run-Rate EBITDA ($USD Millions)G1+G2 steady state$650–$700 (Q4) $650–$700 (Q1/Q2 maintained) Maintained
G2_Austin Start of Construction2025Q2–Q3 target (Q4) Q3/Q4 2025 on track Timing refined
G2_Austin Start of ProductionQ4 2026Q4 2026 (Q4) Q4 2026 (unchanged) Maintained
Section 45X PTC Monetization2025Q2/Q3 expected (Q1) Expect to begin in Q3 2025 Timing clarified

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024, Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
AI/technology initiativesFramed solar + storage as key to rapid capacity additions; positioning as U.S. advanced manufacturing leader “Time to Build” narrative; AI-driven U.S. electricity demand super-cycle; T1 aims to power AI infrastructure Expanding emphasis on AI demand tailwinds
Supply chain/domestic contentAnnounced G2_Austin, domestic content road map; access to Hemlock polysilicon Expanded Corning wafer/polysilicon agreement; FEOC compliance roadmap; target 50%+ non-FEOC by YE25 Concrete progress and partnerships
Tariffs/macro (AD/CVD, Section 232)Tariff/policy uncertainties; merchant sales subdued pending clarity Supports Solar IV AD/CVD and Section 232; acknowledges near-term cost/contract risks in H2 Policy tailwinds medium term, near-term headwinds
Product performance (TOPCon vs PERC)Converting lines from PERC to TOPCon; cost and LCOE benefits One of three conversions complete; producing PERC per customer request on remaining lines Transition in progress; customer-driven mix
Regulatory/legal (CFIUS)CFIUS review ongoing CFIUS notified no jurisdiction over proposed Trina transaction Resolved in Q2
Financing/G2 executionProject financing initiated; multiple capital formation paths Advancing traditional, mezzanine, preferred tranche, customer deposits Execution progressing

Management Commentary

  • “Interest in domestic solar is accelerating on several fronts since early July… demand from hyperscale AI projects is phenomenal… It is clear the time to build a domestic solar supply chain is right now. That’s what we’re delivering.” — CEO Daniel Barcelo .
  • “Maintaining 2025 EBITDA guidance of $25–$50 million; H2 risks skewed to or below the low end… higher mix of merchant sales agreements, AD/CVD and reciprocal tariff uncertainties.” — Guidance slide .
  • Call highlights emphasized “Time to Build” and positioning T1 to power AI infrastructure, with reaffirmed 2027 integrated run-rate EBITDA of $650–$700M .

Q&A Highlights

  • H2 outlook: management reiterated guidance with caution on merchant mix and policy impacts; clarification that deliveries and safe-harboring with customers are in focus to mitigate uncertainties .
  • Domestic content and FEOC compliance: expanded Corning agreement intended to provide competitive advantage vs foreign polysilicon sourcing; plan to exceed FEOC thresholds by YE25 .
  • G2_Austin timeline and financing: construction targeted Q3/Q4 2025; multiple financing processes advancing in parallel (project, mezzanine, preferred, deposits) .
  • Section 45X monetization: expectation to begin monetizing PTCs in Q3 2025, supporting liquidity .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 EPS: actual -$0.21 vs consensus -$0.13 — bold miss of $0.08. Values retrieved from S&P Global* .
  • Q2 2025 Revenue: actual $132.77M vs consensus $139.90M — bold miss of $7.13M. Values retrieved from S&P Global* .
  • Coverage remains thin with 1 estimate for EPS and revenue. Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
MetricQ2 2025 ActualQ2 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($USD Millions)$132.77 $139.90*
Primary EPS ($USD)-$0.21 -$0.13*
Primary EPS – # of EstimatesN/A1*
Revenue – # of EstimatesN/A1*

Note: Consensus values marked with * are Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Execution vs narrative: commercial traction (sold-out 2025 low end and 473 MW deal) and Corning supply agreement strengthen the domestic content story, but near-term P&L remains pressured by shipment timing and policy-driven cost uncertainty .
  • Watch the monetization of Section 45X PTCs in Q3: timing and magnitude are direct liquidity catalysts in H2 2025 .
  • H2 mix shift and tariff clarity: merchant sales exposure and AD/CVD/Section 232 outcomes will drive realized pricing/margins; clarity could re-open merchant bidding and improve visibility .
  • G2_Austin milestones: construction start (Q3/Q4 2025) and financing progress are critical to the 2027 run-rate EBITDA target of $650–$700M .
  • FEOC compliance is the linchpin: achieving 50%+ non-FEOC BOM by YE25 underpins access to 45X and long-term offtake agreements; Corning wafer/polysilicon is a differentiator .
  • Inventory and deferred revenue setup: elevated inventory and rising deferred revenue reflect preparation for deliveries; monitor working capital discipline and cash conversion .
  • Thin consensus coverage (1 estimate) suggests rapid estimate resets post-print; EPS and revenue both missed, so expect cautious revisions pending tariff/IRA clarity. Values retrieved from S&P Global* .