Executive Summary

Q4 2023 capped a transition-heavy year: upstream revenue was $40.0M with upstream Adjusted EBITDA of $21.7M, down sequentially vs Q3’s $43.2M natural gas revenue and $18.3M Adjusted EBITDA, reflecting lower realized prices and mix effects while production remained substantial .
Tellurian emphasized Driftwood LNG progress: >14,000 piles driven, critical concrete foundations underway, and a FERC extension to construct all five plants (27.6 mtpa) that, combined with DOE’s pause not affecting Driftwood’s non-FTA authorization, strengthened its commercial discussions .
Liquidity actions: amended senior secured and convertible notes to permit PIK interest, temporarily reduce minimum liquidity to $25–$40M, and enable a sale process for Haynesville upstream assets to delever; management expects this to enhance near-term liquidity and engagement with financing counterparties .
Guidance narrative shifted: prior “first LNG in 2027” (Q3) moved to “first LNG in 2028” with Phase 1 NTP targeted for 2H24; management cites regulatory positioning (FERC extension, DOE pause) and commercial focus as supportive of the plan .
Wall Street consensus for Q4 2023 (S&P Global) was unavailable via our data connection, so no beat/miss analysis could be confirmed.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Regulatory and site progress: FERC extension for all five plants (27.6 mtpa) and >14,000 piles driven with foundations underway, de‑risking construction and supporting commercial momentum .
- Strengthened liquidity runway: debt amendments permit PIK interest, reduce minimum cash, and align with selling upstream assets to delever; management called this “pivotal” to establish a sustainable capital structure and accelerate Driftwood .
- Management tone on commercialization: Executive Chairman noted DOE’s pause increases Driftwood’s relative advantage and that discussions with a wider set of customers/partners have “increased intensity” .
What Went Wrong
- Timing push: “First LNG” target moved from 2027 (Q3 message) to 2028 in the March 2024 corporate presentation, implying a schedule slip versus prior commentary .
- Upstream softness vs prior year: Q4 upstream revenue declined YoY to $40.0M (from $102.5M in Q4 2022) amid lower realized gas prices; upstream operating swung to a $(11.3)M loss vs $47.5M profit .
- Leadership transition creates interim uncertainty: CEO transitioning to advisory role and retiring in June 2024; roles reallocated and Executive Chairman installed, adding governance change to the strategic pivot .

Financial Results

Consolidated/Upstream Snapshot (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q2 2023	Q3 2023	Q4 2023
Natural gas revenue ($USD Millions)	$32.0	$43.2	$40.0 (Upstream segment)
Net loss ($USD Millions)	$(59.6)	$(65.4)	NA (not disclosed in 8-K)
Diluted EPS ($)	$(0.11)	$(0.12)	NA (not disclosed in 8-K)
Upstream Operating (Loss)/Profit ($USD Millions)	$(28.7)	$(12.6)	$(11.3)
Upstream Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$8.1	$18.3	$21.7

Notes: Q4 press release furnished upstream segment results and full-year GAAP results; consolidated Q4 EPS/revenue were not separately disclosed in the 8‑K. Management attributed 2023 revenue declines to lower realized natural gas prices partially offset by higher volumes .

Balance Sheet (period-end)

Metric	6/30/2023	9/30/2023	12/31/2023
Total assets ($USD Billions)	~$1.3	~$1.3	~$1.3
Cash and cash equivalents ($USD Millions)	~$106.7	~$59.3	~$75.8

Segment and Operations

Upstream KPI	Q2 2023	Q3 2023	Q4 2023
Net production (Bcf)	17.2	19.5	16.4
Net acres	31,117	31,149	30,034
Producing wells (interests)	157	159	161

Estimates comparison: S&P Global consensus for Q4 2023 was unavailable via our connection; beat/miss vs Street cannot be determined.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance/Target	Current Guidance/Target	Change
First LNG timing (Driftwood)	Project	2027 (messaging in Q3’23 PR)	2028 (corporate presentation)	Lowered (delayed)
Phase 1 NTP (Plants 1–2)	Project	Not specified in prior PRs	Issue full NTP in 2H 2024	New specificity
FERC construction authorization	Project	Extension pending (requested Oct’23 per deck notes)	Extension granted for all five plants (27.6 mtpa)	Positive regulatory outcome
Liquidity covenant (min cash)	2024	$40M minimum historically	Reduced to $25–$40M by schedule in 2024	Eased covenant (liquidity flexibility)
Upstream portfolio strategy	Corporate	Operated E&P retained	Exploring sale of Haynesville upstream assets	Strategic pivot (divestiture path)

No formal revenue, margin, OpEx, OI&E, tax rate, or dividend guidance was provided in the Q4 2023 earnings materials.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

No Q4 2023 earnings call transcript was available in our document set; thematic tracking is based on Q2/Q3 earnings releases, the Q4 earnings 8‑K, the March shareholder letter, and the March corporate presentation.

Topic	Q2 2023 (Aug)	Q3 2023 (Nov)	Q4 2023 (Feb/Mar)	Trend
Driftwood timing	Bechtel progressing >9,000 piles; focus on financing; CFO hire to bolster financing	“On target” for first LNG in 2027; invested >$1B; active equity/offtake talks	First LNG 2028; plan to issue full NTP in 2H24; >14,000 piles and foundations progressing	Timing slipped; execution narrative sharpened
Regulatory posture	—	—	FERC extension for all five plants; DOE pause does not affect Driftwood non‑FTA	Improved relative positioning
Commercial/offtake	—	“Number of discussions” on equity and LNG offtake	“Widened commercial aperture” with intensified discussions	Broader engagement
Capital structure/liquidity	—	—	Debt amendments: PIK interest, reduced minimum cash, pledge of Driftwood equity interests; upstream sale to repay notes	Near‑term flexibility improved
Upstream strategy	Operate Haynesville assets, 17.2 Bcf qtr production	19.5 Bcf qtr production; upstream supports operations	Upstream “no longer core”; exploring sale to reduce debt and focus on Driftwood	Pivot to divest
Leadership	—	—	Executive Chairman role elevated; CEO transitioning to advisory then retirement; roles reallocated	Governance transition

Management Commentary

“Driftwood’s recent FERC order extension to construct all five plants, with a capacity of ~27.6 mtpa…have intensified our commercial discussions…we have made significant progress in executing our plans to alleviate substantial doubt.” — CEO Octávio Simões, Q4 release .
“These changes benefit Tellurian as we are now one of a few facilities with uncontracted capacity for LNG deliveries in 2028…we are working as fast as possible.” — Executive Chairman Martin Houston, shareholder letter .
“This amendment to our debt agreement is pivotal towards establishing a sustainable capital structure and accelerating our strategic priority, Driftwood LNG.” — CEO Octávio Simões, debt amendment PR .

Key strategic messages:

Emphasis on regulatory de‑risking (FERC extension, DOE pause advantage) and site progress to support commercialization .
Balance sheet actions (PIK interest, lower liquidity minimums) and potential upstream sale to reduce debt and enhance Driftwood financing optionality .
Commercial outreach broadened with willingness to meet current market terms for SPAs (Henry Hub index + fee) .

Q&A Highlights

No Q4 2023 earnings call transcript was available in our source set; no Q&A themes to report. Narrative clarifications instead came via the shareholder letter and corporate presentation, including updated timing (NTP 2H24, first LNG 2028) and commercial posture .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus estimates (S&P Global) for Q4 2023 were unavailable via our data connection (ticker mapping missing); therefore, we cannot assess beats/misses versus consensus. Management did not provide formal financial guidance metrics for revenue, margins, or EPS in the Q4 materials .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Regulatory and site execution improved project credibility: FERC extension and visible construction progress underpin ongoing offtake and financing dialogues .
Timeline reset to first LNG in 2028 with an NTP target in 2H24: watch for NTP issuance, SPA signings, and financing milestones as primary stock catalysts .
Liquidity runway extended via debt amendments; upstream sale is the next lever to delever and simplify the story toward a pure-play LNG developer .
Upstream performance remains sensitive to gas prices; Q4 upstream revenue was $40.0M with Adjusted EBITDA of $21.7M, down YoY but up sequentially on EBITDA, highlighting cost allocation and DD&A dynamics .
Leadership transition concentrates accountability around commercialization and execution; governance changes could influence investor perception of delivery risk .
With Street estimates unavailable, trading will focus on discrete project milestones (SPA traction, NTP/financing close, upstream sale) and macro LNG pricing/regulatory developments rather than quarterly P&L variances.

References:

Q4/FY2023 results 8‑K and press release
Shareholder letter and corporate presentation (Mar 4, 2024)
Debt amendment 8‑K and PR (Feb 22, 2024)
Upstream sale exploration 8‑K and PR (Feb 6, 2024)
Prior quarters: Q3 2023 8‑K ; Q2 2023 8‑K
Leadership changes 8‑Ks (Dec 8 & 11, 2023; Mar 18, 2024)

TELLURIAN INC. /DE/ (TELL)·Q4 2023 Earnings Summary