Terex - Q3 2023
October 27, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Greetings, and welcome to the Terex third quarter 2023 results conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Paretosh Misra, Head of Investor Relations.
Paretosh Misra (Head of Investor Relations)
Good morning, and welcome to the Terex third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. A copy of the press release and presentation slides are posted on our investor relations website at investors.terex.com. In addition, the replay and slide presentation will be available on our website. We are joined by John Garrison, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Julie Beck, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Their prepared remarks will be followed by Q&A. Please turn to slide two of the presentation, which reflects our safe harbor statement. Today's conference call contains forward-looking statements which are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied. In addition, we will be discussing Non-GAAP information we believe is useful in evaluating the company's operating performance. Reconciliations for these Non-GAAP measures can be found in the conference call materials.
Please turn to slide three, and I'll turn it over to John Garrison.
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you, Paretosh, and good morning. I'd like to welcome everyone to our earnings call and appreciate your interest in Terex. I'd like to begin by thanking all Terex team members around the globe for their exceptional efforts in this challenging global macroeconomic environment and for their continued commitment to our Zero Harm safety culture and Terex Way values. Safety remains the top priority of the company, driven by Think Safe, Work Safe, Home Safe. I'm proud of the Terex team members' resilience as they continue to work tirelessly to improve our performance for our customers, dealers, and shareholders, while maintaining a safe working environment. Please turn to slide four to review our strong third quarter financial results. This quarter, the team delivered sales of $1.3 billion, up 15% from last year.
Operating margins of 12.7%, an expansion of 190 basis points from the prior year, and earnings per share of $1.75, up 46% on a year-over-year basis. As a result of solid execution by our team members throughout the year and a robust backlog, we are increasing our full year earnings outlook to approximately $7.05 per share. Please turn to slide five. Terex products have leading positions in diverse and attractive end markets. The global focus on sustainability is driving increasing investments in infrastructure, digitization, waste recycling, and electrification. These megatrends provide additional growth opportunities for all of our businesses. Our MP aggregate business, led by Powerscreen and Finlay, have leading positions in global mobile crushing and screening markets that will benefit from growth in the demand for construction materials.
Mobile aggregate equipment has the benefit of reducing unnecessary material handling and the ability to recycle material at the point of use. MP brands, including Ecotec, CBI, and Terex Washing Systems, are at the forefront of developing innovative solutions to meet rising demand for recycling technologies. Our utilities business offers a wide portfolio of products to support strengthening demand from electrification investments. Genie booms, scissors, verticals, and telehandlers are essential components of any infrastructure or onshoring project. Let's turn to slide six. We remain encouraged by the favorable trends in our key markets, especially in North America. The U.S. is investing in infrastructure with the three federal stimulus programs that were passed in 2021 and 2022. These investments provide a source of resilient demand visibility over the next several years.
More than 35,000 projects, representing an excess of $120 billion in funding, have been announced or awarded. U.S. non-residential construction spending is up 16% year-over-year, while manufacturing spending is up 63% in the last 12-month period, driven by multibillion-dollar and multi-year investments related to semiconductor manufacturing, clean energy, and EV battery projects. In addition, the biggest growth areas in construction will be publicly financed or built by manufacturers who are onshoring to reduce geopolitical risk, and these investments are less sensitive to interest rates. Our end market diversification is a strength, and we are excited about the opportunities to grow our business. Please turn to slide seven to review our backlog. Our Q3 backlog of $3.3 billion remains significantly above historical levels and is the second highest in recent history, providing healthy momentum going into 2024.
Although backlog has declined sequentially from Q2 levels, this is a function of improved manufacturing production volumes and customer deliveries. Consolidated Q3 bookings remain solid at approximately $900 million and reflects a return to more normal ordering patterns for our dealers and customers. Importantly, we are seeing minimal customer and dealer pushouts and cancellations. The higher interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainties have had an impact on Europe, and we are seeing softening in that market, but it's important to emphasize, demand in North America is very strong. For more than two years, our backlog levels have increased as we've been constrained in our production ability due to supply chain challenges. As we and the industry improve deliveries and lead times, our backlog will eventually return to normalized levels, which is a good thing for our customers.
In addition, the elevated customer fleet ages and low dealer inventory levels continue to provide encouraging signs for the demand environment. In our Genie business, the industry replacement cycle and significant global investments in infrastructure, onshoring, and electrification creates a clear opportunity for future growth. In our MP segment, in addition to these favorable trends, dealer inventory levels remain low in several businesses. Overall, our customer feedback, bookings, significant backlog, and leading indicators give us confidence going into 2024. Please turn to slide eight. The global demand for waste recycling solutions is increasing, driven by evolving regulations and consumer preferences. The MP segment is well-positioned to capitalize on these opportunities. Our EvoQuip brand recently added a shredder capable of handling multiple applications, including construction and demolition waste. Our Ecotec metal separator can efficiently extract valuable metals from a variety of waste sources.
Our CBI business continues to find new market applications for our equipment, such as recycling of windmill blades. This eliminates the need for landfill disposal when blades are decommissioned and replaced. I am confident the MP business will continue to provide innovative solutions to support the increasing demand for recycling technologies. Please turn to slide nine. Our sustainability practice deliver stakeholder value. During each quarterly investor call, we feature one of the pillars of our ESG strategy. This quarter, we are highlighting environmental stewardship. Our 2023 sustainability report, published earlier this week, highlights products and solutions that enable our customers to operate in sustainable ways. Approximately 70% of our MP and Genie products are now offered with electric or hybrid options, while 10 of our sites are operating using 100% renewable energy.
We reached our 2024 greenhouse gas targets 2 years early and reduced our emissions intensity by 15% from our 2019 levels. We are proud of our team members' accomplishments in helping build a more sustainable economy. Turning to Slide 10 for an update on our strategic operational priorities. We continue to make great progress on our execute, innovate, and grow strategic initiatives. Our operations teams executed well during the third quarter, maintaining their focus on improving deliveries for our customers and continuing with cost reduction and productivity improvement initiatives. On a year-to-date basis, our sales are up 23% and operating margins are up 400 basis points, demonstrating the strength of our operating model and the improvements we've made over the last several years. Supply chain performance has improved throughout the year, but we continue to experience disruptions in the system.
In the third quarter, our Monterrey, Mexico, team members were focused on increasing production, startup of our in-house paint systems, and process improvements. I want to congratulate our Genie Monterrey team members for earning the prestigious LEED Gold Certification, demonstrating our commitment to sustainable practices in design, construction, and operations. Our investments in new products and technologies will enable us to take advantage of the sustainability trends such as recycling, electrification, and decarbonization. We remain confident in our ability to execute our strategy to deliver long-term shareholder value. With that, let me turn it over to Julie.
Julie Beck (SVP and CFO)
Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. Let's take a look at our third quarter financial performance found on Slide 11. Sales of $1.3 billion were up 15% year-over-year on higher volume and improved price realization necessary to mitigate rising costs. Sales in constant currency were up 13% as foreign currency translation positively impacted sales by $25 million or approximately 2%. Gross margins increased by 150 basis points in the quarter as volume, pricing, improved manufacturing efficiency, cost out initiatives, and strict expense discipline helped to offset cost inflation. SG&A increased over the prior year due to inflation, incremental spend on new acquisitions, and increased marketing, engineering, and technology expenses. SG&A was 10% of sales, a decrease of 40 basis points from the prior year, with business investment offset by continued strict expense management throughout the company....
Compared to last year, income from operations of $163 million increased 35%. Operating margin of 12.7% was up 190 basis points, and our incremental margin was 25%. Interest and other expense of $14 million increased $1 million from the prior year, as higher interest rates were partially offset by favorable mark-to-market adjustments. The third quarter global effective tax rate was 20%. Third quarter earnings per share of $1.75 increased 46%, representing a $0.55 improvement over last year. This strong performance was driven by increased volume, disciplined pricing, and continued cost management. Free cash flow for the quarter was $106 million, representing a $53 million improvement over the prior year, primarily driven by increased operating profit.
Hospital inventory at the end of the third quarter was $20 million, a decrease of $3 million from the second quarter and a 68% improvement from the prior year. Free cash flow conversion was 89% in the quarter. On a year-to-date basis, our sales are up 23% over the prior year. Operating margins have expanded 400 basis points at an incremental margin of 30%. Earnings per share are up 90%, and free cash flow has increased by over $200 million. Let's take a look at our segment results, starting with our materials processing segment found on Slide 12. MP had another excellent quarter with consistently strong operational execution. Sales of $541 million increased 18% compared to the third quarter of 2022, driven by strong demand for our aggregates, environmental, and concrete products.
On a foreign exchange neutral basis, sales were up 16%. MP operating profit increased 37% over the prior year, driven by higher sales volumes, favorable product and geographic mix, improved manufacturing efficiencies, and disciplined cost management, with strong operating margins of 16.9%, up 230 basis points. MP's incremental margin was 29%. MP ended the quarter with backlog of approximately $900 million. The backlog remains robust and is approximately 2 times historical norms. Bookings were slightly higher than historical averages for the third quarter. On Slide 13, see our aerial work platforms segment financial results. AWP had a solid quarter with sales of $751 million, up 13% compared to the prior year on higher demand, improved supply chain, and disciplined pricing actions to offset cost pressures.
On a foreign exchange neutral basis, sales were up 11%. AWP operating profit increased 47% over the prior year, and the team delivered operating margins of 12.5% in the quarter, up 290 basis points from last year, with an incremental margin of 34%. The improvement was the result of higher sales volumes, favorable geographic mix, and cost reduction initiatives, offsetting increasing costs and Monterrey startup inefficiencies. Genie had a strong quarter, but our utilities business was negatively impacted by manufacturing inefficiencies due to supply chain issues and related unfavorable product mix. Bookings of $536 million were up 4% sequentially and at levels typical of historical Q3 bookings, with a solid backlog of $2.5 billion, which is 3x the historical norm.
Negotiations with the national accounts continue, and we expect to return to seasonally higher bookings in Q4. Please see Slide 14 for an overview of our disciplined capital allocation strategy. Our strong balance sheet provides us with financial flexibility to invest in our future growth. Year-to-date, free cash flow has increased $205 million over the prior year. We continue to invest in our business with Q3 capital expenditures of $34 million, primarily related to our Monterrey facility. We increased our dividend 31% since the beginning of the year, which reflects our continued confidence in the company's strong financial position and future prospects. Year-to-date, we have returned $66 million to our shareholders and are currently purchasing shares as we believe our shares are an attractive investment.
We have no debt maturities until 2026, and 85% of our debt is at a fixed rate of 5% until the end of the decade. In addition, we have paid down $118 million of debt over the last 12 months. Our net leverage remains low at 0.5x, which is well below our 2.5x target through the cycle. We have ample liquidity of $846 million, and we reported a return on invested capital over 29%, well above our cost of capital. The company is in an excellent position to execute our plan and grow the business. Now turning to Slide 15 and our updated full-year outlook. It is important to realize we are operating in a challenging macro environment with many variables and geopolitical uncertainties, so results could change negatively or positively.
With that said, this updated outlook represents our best estimate as of today. Thanks to the strong performance of our team members and robust backlog, we are raising our 2020 outlook to approximately $7.05 per share and over 60% improvement from 2022. Our increased sales outlook of approximately $5.15 billion represents a 17% increase from the prior year and incorporates the latest dialogue with our customers and our suppliers. Our sales in the fourth quarter of the year are expected to be sequentially lower due to normal production seasonality and supply chain challenges, but consistent with prior year. We are maintaining our operating margin outlook of approximately 13%, a 350 basis point improvement from the last year.
We reaffirm our free cash flow outlook of $375 million for the full year, approximately $225 million higher than the prior year. Let's take a look at our updated segment outlook. Based upon MP's continued strong execution, we are increasing our sales outlook to over $2.2 billion at an operating margin of approximately 16.1%. We expect MP's fourth quarter sales to be up slightly in Q3 and margins to be sequentially lower due to a less favorable geographic and product mix. This outlook represents a 15% increase in sales and an 80 basis point improvement in operating margin from the prior year. The Genie team has executed well, and as a result, we are increasing our AWP sales outlook to over $2.9 billion.
We expect a sequential decline in AWP's fourth quarter sales due to fewer production days. We are updating our full year operating margin outlook to approximately 13.3% due to material supply chain issues impacting our utilities business. AWP's outlook reflects a 540 basis point improvement from the prior year and an incremental margin over 40%. On behalf of my fellow Terex team members, I want to thank John for his significant contribution, leadership, and dedicated years of service to Terex, and wish he and his family a happy retirement. John has been instrumental in transforming our company into the Terex of today, which comprises a very strong portfolio of market-leading businesses worldwide. Under his leadership, Terex has experienced remarkable success and remains well positioned for continued growth. With that said, I will turn it back to you, John.
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Julie. Turning to Slide 16 to conclude my prepared remarks. Terex is well positioned for growth to deliver long-term value for our stakeholders because we have a strong portfolio of diverse, market-leading businesses that operate in attractive growth markets and are well positioned for long-term profitable growth. This growth is going to be bolstered by attractive global megatrends. We deployed our operating systems across the businesses, improving our execution, allowing us to generate consistent profitability and superior return on our invested capital. We have a strong balance sheet and cash flow to support our growth plan, and we have a global, experienced, and resilient leadership team that has clearly demonstrated the ability to create value. It has been an honor to help the company position for sustainable, profitable growth and to make progress towards becoming a workplace where all team members feel included with a voice in the enterprise.
Leading Terex has been the highlight of my career. Without a doubt, our success and achievements have been driven by our dedicated, engaged team members who live our Terex way values and Zero Harm safety culture each and every day. Terex is in a strong position, and now is the right time to begin the transition to the next leader. I've had the privilege of working closely with Simon for a number of years. He has proven to be a global, strategic thinker with a natural ability to lead teams and drive results. I have great confidence that he is the right leader for Terex as the company focuses on delivering long-term value for our stakeholders. With that, let me turn it back to Paretosh.
Paretosh Misra (Head of Investor Relations)
Thanks, John. As a reminder, during the question and answer session, we ask you to limit your questions to one and a follow-up to ensure we answer as many questions as possible this morning. With that, I would like to open it up for questions. Operator?
Operator (participant)
Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star one again. Our first question comes from Stanley Elliott from Stifel. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Stanley Elliott (Managing Director)
Hey, good morning, everyone.
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Good morning.
Stanley Elliott (Managing Director)
John, for starters, thank you so much, and congratulations on the transformation. It's been impressive to watch.
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Stan.
Stanley Elliott (Managing Director)
First question here on the backlog, still incredibly healthy. Can you all talk about the visibility that you have? I mean, I'm assuming you guys are close to fully booked for 2024. Maybe what sort of visibility would does that give you into 2025? And then maybe any commentary on, on pricing or mix in those numbers?
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
... Yeah, thanks, Dan. If we look at our overall backlog of $3.3 billion, you know, it's 3x our historical norms. Total bookings of about $900 million in the quarter were solid and actually slightly higher than our historical averages that we've experienced. Our Book-to-Bill, I think, has been consistent with improving supply chain and customer deliveries. And really, the theme will be beginning to return to a more normal seasonal pattern, you know, both for our customers and for our deliveries. As we mentioned, we continue to see minimal order cancellations and pushouts, which I think expresses the strength that we have in that backlog. And the coverage is right.
We've got more than, you know, approximately $2 billion booked for 2024, and we believe that does drive momentum into 2024 across the, you know, the enterprise. If I look at the respective segments, if you look at MP, they've got a backlog of about $900 million, and that remains high. It's twice our historical norms. Historically, you know, our MP business is much more of a book-to-bill, and usually only has about one quarter of visibility. We have substantially more than that, as we go forward. Again, their bookings were, you know, slightly higher than our historical averages. So, you know, looking into 2024, the order book varies by business. For example, our aggregate order book, you know, for Q2 2024, really didn't open in Q3. It opened here in Q4.
You know, that, that's, you know, again, as things return to more normal seasonality, we'll see that, that flow going forward. You know, we think dealer inventories, especially in certain brands, are, are relatively low and need to be replenished, as well as some of their rental fleets. We think that provides some tailwind for us as we go forward as well. In our opening comments and, you know, just the investments, especially in North America, on infrastructure spending and onshoring, you know, is gonna help that business, not just in 2024, but as we go forward. If you look at our AWP segment, we've got about $2.5 billion booked there, which is 3xour historical levels.
And again, Book-to-Bill there is consistent with improving supply chains and the beginning of return to seasonality. Bookings, again, are slightly above our historical averages. And, you know, we're right in the middle. Q3 is usually a lull period, if you will, for, you know, for the Genie business. And as we get into Q4, we're right in the middle of our negotiations and conversations with the national accounts. So that's ongoing, and we'd expect that to conclude here in Q4. And again, demand remains quite strong. If you listen to the, you know, the, the rental companies, they're seeing, you know, really good utilization. Their fleets have aged. They need to be refreshed. You know, the significant megatrends infrastructure projects. So again, North America, quite strong.
And then there, the replacement cycle has been, you know, delayed, if you will. And so the replacement of the fleet has to continue, given the age of the fleet. So we think that provides, you know, a significant, you know, tailwind for us as we go forward. So overall, if we look at our bookings and our backlog, and customer feedback is strong, our bookings are strong. You know, the backlog is significantly higher and leading indicators. So that gives us, you know, confidence and some momentum as we go into 2024.
Stanley Elliott (Managing Director)
Perfect. And then kind of sticking on the MP business, you know, when would you guess, like, dealer inventories might actually normalize, given the infrastructure spending on the horizon? And then also, you know, any commentary on some of the newer products and on the recycling products, that you guys have been working on or, or tracking with customers?
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah. So in terms of normalizing inventory, it will, it will vary by, by business. And I think our aggregates businesses would say kind of, you know, as things continue on this pace, middle of next year, probably. Our Fuchs business, we can talk about that. They do have higher levels of inventory that have been impacted by, you know, scrap metal prices. So it, it does vary by business, but over the course of time, we would expect those to normalize as we move through 2024, Stan.
Stanley Elliott (Managing Director)
Perfect. Thanks so much, and best wishes to you, John.
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Dan.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Steve Volkmann from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Stephen Volkmann (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Good morning. Thank you, and congrats, John.
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Sure.
Stephen Volkmann (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
My question is, about margins in AWP, and it sounds like there were a couple of kind of temporary headwinds in the quarter. I think, we mentioned Monterrey startup, utility business, kind of below normal. Is there any way to kind of ballpark the, impact of that on the AWP margin in the third quarter?
Julie Beck (SVP and CFO)
Sure. Thanks for the question, Steve. You know, AWP had operating margins of 12.5% in the third quarter, and it was up 290 basis points from last year. The improvement was really strong execution by the Genie team. You know, we had higher sales volumes. The supply chain is improving and disciplined pricing and that offset some of the cost increases. Strong execution and successful cost out management. We continue to see the hard work by the Genie team showing up in our financials and cost out initiatives as well. But these positives were partially offset by the expected inefficiencies due to the Monterrey ramp-up.
So that was, you know, included in our outlook, and we've talked about that on previous calls. But additionally, this quarter, we were disappointed in supplier performance to the Utilities business, which caused unfavorable manufacturing inefficiencies and related unfavorable product mix. We were able to get sales up, but less favorable margin sales in the quarter in the Utilities business, and that had an unfavorable impact and probably about $0.12 a share in the quarter. Overall, our Q3 incremental margin, you know, was 34%, and AWP increased their profit by almost 50%, and margins improved by 290 points because of Genie's strong execution in the quarter.
Stephen Volkmann (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Great. So the $0.12 would just be the utility business?
Julie Beck (SVP and CFO)
Right. And that would be offset. You know, we had favorable performance in the quarter by the MP business, of course, with us by about $0.10, and the Genie business was up about $0.07 as well from the, from as compared to the outlook.
Stephen Volkmann (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Okay, that's helpful. And then just the sort of follow on there, I guess, is it feels like utility's been a bit of a focus, shall we say, for a few quarters now. What's the outlook for kind of getting that where it needs to be?
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, thanks. So, you know, the team, we have to be straightforward. We're disappointed in our performance in the quarter, you know, supplier related. The team— On the good news side, the supply chain is improvement on the specific issues that we had in the third quarter, created significant inefficiencies for us, but that's continued to improve. So the operational execution improvement, you know, needs to occur, will occur. We're anticipating an improvement, in Q4. You know, the good thing, you know, Steve, is that, you know, the backdrop for that business is incredibly strong. And, you know, they're booked out through 2025, for the most part, in most product categories. I'm sorry, through 2024. Let me rephrase that, through 2024. And so the market demand for that business is quite strong.
We just need to improve our operational execution and deliveries, which we will, as we go forward.
Julie Beck (SVP and CFO)
That business-
Stephen Volkmann (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Great, thank-
Julie Beck (SVP and CFO)
has been particularly hampered by supply chain issues.
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah.
Julie Beck (SVP and CFO)
Yeah.
Stephen Volkmann (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Right. Good. Got it. Thank you, guys.
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Seth Weber from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Seth Weber (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, everybody. Good morning, and John, I echo the congrats and enjoyed working with you. So,
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Likewise
Seth Weber (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
... happy trails. Yeah. I wanted to get a better understanding for the implied fourth quarter MP margin, which is down, you know, year-over-year, and it's down sequentially a bunch, even though revenue looks like it's gonna be up a little bit. I'm just wondering if you could give us some more details on what's going on there, whether it's a mix issue, a product, you know, region issue or what? Just any more color there on the MP margin.
Julie Beck (SVP and CFO)
Thanks, Seth. You know, MP had, you know, operating margins of 16.9% in the third quarter, up 230 basis points from last year. I mean, they just continued to perform extremely well. They continued to invest in the business, as well, and we made prudent investments to grow the business. But the margins benefited in the quarter from favorable regional and product mix and improved manufacturing efficiencies. And also, they had, in the quarter, we received about $3 million of R&D credits. We get this annually. It came in Q3, and so that was a favorable, you know, amount received in Q3. Going forward, we expect strong MP full year sales, you know, over $2.2 billion.
We expect Q4 sales to be up slightly from the third quarter. We did increase our outlook to 16.1% as the team continues to have their excellent performance. And the margins of the 15% in the Q4 will be strong, but sequentially lower due to a less favorable geographic and product mix, as well as some higher sequential engineering expense, because the R&D credit that we received in Q3 won't repeat itself. But overall, MP continues to deliver consistent and strong operating performance.
Seth Weber (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
That's helpful. Thanks. And then just, maybe just the, the commentary around Europe. Can you just expand on the softness that you're seeing there? Is that across both MP and AWP? And is that the source of the cancellations that you've been seeing?
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Seth. In terms of cancellations, again, we've had minimal cancellations and pushouts, but we have seen, and we did call out some softness in the European market. You know, we've actually been pleasantly surprised how well it's held up. But if we look at Europe, in our MP business, on the aggregate side, you know, our sales were up and backlogs are quite high there. But customer sentiment in Europe, you know, is not nearly as strong as the customer sentiment in North America. Our Fuchs business, you know, was... We saw some softness in the Fuchs business, again, associated with falling scrap metal prices. Now, the good news for that business, the team's worked hard over the years to diversify.
We're seeing some of the sales into our environmental business, with the Fuchs machine, brand of Ecotec. So again, a mix there, but clearly, Fuchs saw some softness, and I would say, in general, softness in Germany, where Fuchs is headquartered and has a long, a strong market. We called out last quarter, our tower crane sales softness in, and we saw continued softness in the tower crane business in Europe. On the Genie side, you know, sales are-- and, and bookings were holding, but again, it's that customer sentiment is not quite as strong. We're just-- we're highlighting that, that the European market, especially the U.K. and Germany, we're seeing some softness there.
Again, we believe it's gonna be offset by the strength we're seeing in North America, but Europe is in a different place due to the geopolitical risk, the inflation than North America right now. Those are the, you know, the businesses that we're seeing, you know, softness. We're watching closely the bookings, you know, in those respective markets... business segments. Again, it's really about the customer sentiment being very different in Europe right now, especially in the U.K. and in Germany, especially as compared to North America, where customer sentiment is quite strong.
Seth Weber (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
It makes sense. Thanks, thanks, everybody, and talk to you soon.
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks.
Julie Beck (SVP and CFO)
Thanks, Seth.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Steven Fisher from UBS. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Steven Fisher (Executive Director and Analyst at UBS)
Thanks. Good morning, John. Best wishes. It's been a pleasure. Just to confirm the utilities impact, and you reduced the AWP segment margin guidance by 50 basis points for the year. I think the $0.12 you called out would translate directly to that $0.50. So just to confirm, you haven't assumed any impact on negative utilities supply chain for Q4?
Julie Beck (SVP and CFO)
Yeah, well, we're expecting it to improve in Q4 from Q3, but we're not expecting it to return to pre-pandemic levels. We're, you know, expecting it to return to more of our normal patterns in the first and second quarter.
Steven Fisher (Executive Director and Analyst at UBS)
Okay, great. That's helpful. And then, at this point, I know it's early, but I'm curious about the signals that you look at. I know you talked a lot about backlog and visibility for next year, but I guess, you know, overall, did the signals suggest that you could have a year of growth in your two businesses? Are there any subsegments that you can say with sort of most confidence that demand should be growing in 2024?
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Steven. As you know, in Q3, we will provide a... You know, the team will provide a detailed outlook on our Q4 earnings call. As you know, our customers and us right now are in the middle of our planning cycle. With the strong backlogs we have, with the $2 billion booked, we do believe that that drives momentum into 2024. You know, we did just discuss the, you know, some of the offset, if you will, with some softness in Europe, but in the U.S. market, it's quite strong. In my opening comments, you heard me talk about, you know, the tailwinds that's occurring because of these three legislative acts, the significant increase in non-residential construction spending.
If you listen to, especially in the Genie business, if you listen to the rental customers, you know, they're sitting—you know, they're buoyant. They're seeing growth in their business because of these incredible amount of physical stimulus that's occurring, the mega projects, the size of the projects, the duration of the projects. So that provides a very nice tailwind, and we believe that provides a nice tailwind across our businesses, in North America as we go into 2024. So I would say customer feedback, especially in North America, is strong. Our bookings are, you know, at or near our kind of historical levels, so that's a good signal. Backlog significantly higher than historical levels, and then just leading indicators around construction and construction spending and the type of construction spending, i.e., public finance.
And then these onshoring projects are going to occur irrespective of what interest rates are. As I said in my opening comments, that's to reduce geopolitical risk, to control the supply chain going forward. And so that's going to continue. So it does give us confidence, you know, and some momentum going into 2024. But again, with $2 billion of backlog, that's good for us. Historically, it provides that momentum into 2024, and for all... You know, the team will provide a 2024 outlook on our Q4 earnings call.
Steven Fisher (Executive Director and Analyst at UBS)
Perfect. Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from David Raso from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
David Raso (Senior Managing Director and Partner)
Hi. Thank you very much, John. Best of luck. Enjoy family-
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, David.
David Raso (Senior Managing Director and Partner)
Obviously, congratulations to Simon. The spirit of the question is just trying to frame the potential incremental margins in AWP for next year. You know, just thinking about trying to leverage that backlog. The numbers I'm running for the impact on utilities on the segment for 3Q and 4Q, it feels like, excluding the utility impact, you wouldn't really have changed much to the AWP guidance, right? A little up on the revenue, but the margins still feel like they would have been about the 13.8. And I know that was your guidance, but, you know, I think people are looking for a little more leverage, some upside and the profitability. Can you take us through just your thoughts around what's different in 2024 versus 2023?
What could impact the margins? I'm thinking about Monterrey. I'm thinking about the mix, the price cost. I think people are just trying to figure out, as you know, one of your competitors had decent leverage yesterday in that segment. Just trying to get a sense of how we should think about the puts and takes on incrementals 2024 versus 2023. Thank you.
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah. So I'll jump in, and then Julie can jump in. So, you know, at the highest level, you know, from a price cost standpoint, again, our pricing strategy, you know, is not going to change. We priced to offset material freight and labor cost increases. You know, we are seeing continued inflationary pressures. Our team's working hard to offset that, David, but we do, you know, believe that there is pricing, and there's pricing in our backlog for 2024. So, you know, price cost neutral is what we've been driving for. Our job is to control costs, push costs, get the price that we need in the marketplace to offset that. So, you know, that's how I'd comment on price costs.
No significant difference as we transition from 2023, you know, in, in, into 2024. We've spoken about Monterrey. You know, Monterrey, you know, we're as we ramp up over the course of the next 18 months and through 2024, that does create some inefficiencies with the product line moves. And again, our Q3, you know, forecast, the Monterrey team delivered what we expected. They were, they were right on. You know, we, we expected that in our outlook. We would expect that continuing, David, through 2024, and as we enter into 2025, that's that 200 basis point overall kind of margin improvement for the Genie business as we go forward.
Within that AWP segment, we do need to see, and that's on us, we do need to see improved performance on our utility segment because that we did not get leverage. Actually, it was quite negative leverage in the quarter, and so we need to get that business to that 25% incremental, you know, margin target that we set. So we would expect our utilities business to improve performance from 2023 to 2024, so that should give us, you know, some leverage. And then in our MP business, I mean, they are, you know, rock solid, consistent, and we're going to continue to invest on that. Sometimes our incremental margins above, David, are 25% target. Some quarters, it's below, based on where we are from, you know, an investment profile, but they deliver consistent, you know, strong operating margin performance.
So, you know, that's how I'd answer the question is, you know, David, we're, we're in the middle of the planning process. We'll be pushing the team, obviously, for our cost out, cost out initiatives. We'll be pushing the team to drive manufacturing efficiency improvements as, as the supply chain. And again, I think it's a reasonable assumption to assume the supply chain continues to improve. We're not all the way back yet, but we have seen improvement in 2023. So I think it's a reasonable assumption to say we should see some manufacturing efficiency improvements as supply chain improves and disruptions decline into 2024. So, you know, just macro, high level from a CEO's standpoint, I think that's how I'd answer the question, David.
David Raso (Senior Managing Director and Partner)
I appreciate that, and I don't mean to push on your, maybe your last call here, but maybe if you're the CFO hat, Julie-
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
It's your nature, David.
Julie Beck (SVP and CFO)
Yeah.
David Raso (Senior Managing Director and Partner)
Well, you won't, you won't be listening to the call the next time I ask the question.
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Oh, yes, I will.
David Raso (Senior Managing Director and Partner)
But, Julie, just so we can frame it, obviously, Utilities is hurting right now.
Julie Beck (SVP and CFO)
Yeah.
David Raso (Senior Managing Director and Partner)
But when I think of the size of that business, you know, call it $550 million-$575 million of revs, can we see a swing back in that business worth, you know, 400 basis points or 500 basis points in that segment year-over-year? Just, I know it wasn't quite that big a hit for them right now-
Julie Beck (SVP and CFO)
Well, I-
David Raso (Senior Managing Director and Partner)
But for the full year.
Julie Beck (SVP and CFO)
I would say that we would expect improvement in the utilities business, which will impact the segment. So let's talk about. And so, you know, they were—you know, when you think about the margins, you know, we talked about the impact of 12 cents a share in the quarter, and you think about that, that's—they were significantly below their run rate in Q1 and Q2. So in Q4, we're expecting that to come back, and they still have opportunity. We still want to return this business to, you know, low double-digit margins, and we do think that that's within sight, and so we'll continue to strive for that.
David Raso (Senior Managing Director and Partner)
AWP and Monterrey, then the impact, just to think about the path to the 200 basis points, what would you expect 2024 versus 2023, that framework? What's the AWP 2024 versus 2023?
Julie Beck (SVP and CFO)
So I would expect that we will see, you know, we'll see disruption. Remember, it's, it's—when you think about it, you think about it, there's disruption for the, the, the, the receiving location in Monterrey as well as the sending. But, you know, I think that, that, you know, we'll, we'll see that, but, but the benefit of that is the 200 basis points when we come out of 2025. So the Monterrey team was right on target, and we'll continue to, to, work hard, to eliminate, you know, that, that, you know, to do better than what we've guided to. And we've talked about that it could be somewhere between a 10 million dollar and 15 million dollar impact in 2023, and we would expect some of that to continue into 2024.
David Raso (Senior Managing Director and Partner)
And lastly, for me, any broad thoughts with Simon to think about where the balance sheet is? I mean, you know, I would argue, right, Terex's balance sheet's about as strong as-
Julie Beck (SVP and CFO)
Mm
David Raso (Senior Managing Director and Partner)
... you know, we've ever seen it. So just trying to think about any capital allocation commentary that you or Simon or the transition might provide, investors, how to think about the use of the balance sheet. Thank you.
Julie Beck (SVP and CFO)
Yeah, I think from our-- so yes, we do have a strong balance sheet. You know, we have ample liquidity. We have $846 million, and net leverage is at 0.5x. And as we discussed, you know, the first thing we like to do is organic growth, and we're investing in our facilities, in particular, Monterrey right now. And those investments are paying off with a 29% return on invested capital. Of course, we've talked about, even in my prepared remarks, the increase of the dividend, and we've increased it 31% since the start of the year. And so we'll do that, and then we'll look at what we do. It-- we'll generate, you know, significant cash, and we'll look at whether we do inorganic or share repurchases.
So inorganic, you know, we, we've made some smaller investments, and we've discussed them earlier. We have an active pipeline. We'll continue to look at those. We'll be, you know, disciplined in that process, and we'll also look at share repurchases. And so, you know, we have repurchased $34 million worth of shares year to date. At the end of the quarter, we had $159 million remaining on that authorization. Our goal, you know, we always state that we want to offset dilution from incentive comp and also make opportunistic prices. And at these prices, we believe our shares are an attractive investment, and we're out purchasing shares. So our strong balance sheet, you know, allows us flexibility and allows us to invest for future growth. And-
David Raso (Senior Managing Director and Partner)
All right. I appreciate the answer, and again, congratulations. Thank you so much.
Julie Beck (SVP and CFO)
Thanks, David.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Tami Zakaria from JP Morgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Tami Zakaria (Equity Research Analyst)
Hi, good morning. Thank you so much for taking my questions. So on your slide, you noted about over 35,000 projects, approved or awarded in infrastructure, probably more to come, and one of your competitors is increasing capacity in assets equipment. How are you thinking about growing market share if demand accelerates because of these tailwinds?
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, a great question. So, you know, from a footprint standpoint, specifically with our Genie business, you know, our Monterrey facility really helps us to be globally cost competitive. We'll have incremental capacity as we begin to ramp that facility as we go forward. And so we believe we're in a good position from a capacity standpoint. We're still producing significantly less in unit volumes, you know, than we did in the 2018 type time frame. So from a capacity standpoint, we believe we'll have adequate capacity to take advantage of market growth. From a market share standpoint, our market share has held relatively consistent this year.
The team's focused on new product development, and as we look at new product development, we do believe that new product development will help us as we go forward. We've launched the new products that we've launched, we've seen a respective increase in them, in the market position of those products that we launched. I can assure you the team has a very active new product development program as we go forward. So we'll have leading-edge, you know, products that deliver the best total cost of ownership in the industry, and we believe that will position us well going forward in the Genie business.
Tami Zakaria (Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. That's very helpful. Quick follow-up: Are you able to quantify the incremental capacity you expect from Monterrey? Is it like a 5-10, 10, 15? Any numbers?
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
I'd quantify it this way and just say today, we're still at, you know, call it 15% ±, maybe even 20% less than we were in 2018, 2019 timeframe, so on a unit volume basis.
Tami Zakaria (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay, great. Thank you so much.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Nicole, Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Nicole DeBlase (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Yeah, thanks. Good morning, guys. John, congratulations on a very well-deserved retirement.
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Nicole.
Nicole DeBlase (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Maybe just first on the backlog within AWP, can you just talk a little bit about the mix of NRC versus IRC customers, and also anything interesting that you've seen from a product perspective?
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Nicole, I would say the mix is relatively consistent with what we've had historically. So it ebbs and flows quarter to quarter, you know, with the larger customers, you know, in Q4, when you sign their, you know, their annual agreements, you'll see that quarter bump up. But if you just look at the backlog, I'd say it's relatively consistent with historical norms, but it does ebb and flow quarter to quarter, especially when you book some of the larger national account orders.
Nicole DeBlase (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. Thank you. And then just thinking about Free Cash Flow into 4Q and then into 2024, I guess it, you know, it seems like you guys still have quite a bit of opportunity from a working capital perspective. How do you think about that opportunity, particularly on the inventory side? Like, can you get back to historical levels of inventory? Can you just walk through that? Thank you.
Julie Beck (SVP and CFO)
Sure. Yeah, thanks for the question, Nicole. Yes, the management team is focused on net working capital as a percentage of sales, and it's actually part of our incentive comp program, so we're very focused on it. And we talk about inventory in particular, you know, a lot in our management meetings. We continue to have higher inventory, you know, today, but we've reduced that by 68% from last year, and so it's at about $20 million. So certainly, that's an opportunity to reduce inventory, as we continue to extract inventory, and we will continue to do that until the supply chain disruptions abate.
But we're very focused on working capital, and we'll continue to be focused on it, and generate cash.
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, Nicole, you probably heard me say in the past, you know, just in time turned out to be just late. In the channels, we're asking our suppliers will carry a little bit more inventory, again, to eliminate the disruptions that we've been seeing. But as Julie said, it is, it's part of our incentive comp system. You know, return on invested capital is important to the company and in improving return on capital of our working capital, you know, we're incentivized to drive improvement in that metric as well. And the only caveat I'll say is a little bit is keeping a little bit more inventory until we, you know, we see more steady state supply from the suppliers. But we're focused on it.
Nicole DeBlase (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thanks. I'll pass it on.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Jerry Revich (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Yes. Hi, good morning. John, let me add my congratulations as well. You know, when you took over in 2015, Terex was at a pretty high point in the cycle, and the company was earning sub $2 per share and, you know, over $7 today. So, congratulations on the strong transformation here.
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you, Jerry. It was a team effort.
Jerry Revich (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Can I ask in terms of the outlook for normalizing production rates now that logistics for the industry are catching up, you know, as we think about what the production cadence looks like in 2024, it feels like we should be looking for a heavier 2Q and 3Q as a mix of total, compared to what we've seen over the past couple of years, as, you know, we've given deliveries to customers at, you know, first quarter, fourth quarter, that have been heavier. Is that right? Can we talk about that? Obviously, for Aerials, you're guiding to sales that are flattish year-over-year in fourth quarter based on CapEx cadence.
It sounds like first quarter is going to be down, year-over-year, potentially to your customers and bigger shipments in 2Q and 3Q. I just want to run that by you and see if that's consistent with how you're thinking about normalization.
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
... Yeah, Jerry, I think that's a reasonable assumption. As we indicated, I think the business is all the supply chain continues to improve. We're gonna return to more seasonal patterns. The underlying customer demand seasonal patterns didn't change. What changed was the industry's ability to meet those patterns. So as supply chains improved, I think as we transition into 2024, we're gonna see a return to more normal seasonal patterns on bookings, backlogs, deliveries, customer order patterns, when customers would like to take equipment. So I think that's a reasonable assumption as we head into 2024, Jerry.
Jerry Revich (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Super. And, John, in Europe, AWP, you know, there's been ebbs and flows based on product availability. So recently, you folks have been able to ramp up deliveries from Asia that have driven the strong growth. This year, you had mentioned demand might be a touch softer. Can you just talk about how you view as normalized levels of demand in Europe AWP, considering, you know, before this year, there's been more supply constraints, if, for that part of your footprint?
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Right. So this year, supply constraints really were started to alleviate in Europe, actually ahead of North America. Jerry, our sales and bookings in Europe are holding, you know, pretty constant in Q3. But again, just going back to that customer sentiment, you know, the customer sentiment is not nearly as buoyant. And so we're watching that. We'll see. We're obviously, there's some not as many large national accounts in Europe, but we're engaged in those conversations as there are in North America. So, you know, more to come, but we thought it was worth calling out. The sentiment in Europe is definitely not nearly as strong as it is in North America.
Jerry Revich (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Yeah. I appreciate the transparency and the discussion. Thanks.
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah. And, Jerry, let me just say on that. As we look, it goes to our telematics data as well, U.K. and Germany. Other markets are holding up, but U.K. and Germany, we're seeing, you know, we're seeing that sentiment.
Jerry Revich (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thanks, John.
Operator (participant)
Our last question will come from Mig Dobre from Baird. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Mig Dobre (Senior Research Analyst, Machinery & Diversified Industrial)
Hey, you squeezed me in. Thank you. Appreciate it. And, John, all the best. Congrats. I guess I have a-
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Mig.
Mig Dobre (Senior Research Analyst, Machinery & Diversified Industrial)
Yeah, I have a general question and a specific follow-up. Yeah, the general one is, as you sort of look back at your tenure here, you've obviously done great things for this company. Is there anything that you sort of feel, not to say that you left undone, but you wish you could have gotten to, but you just couldn't, that Simon and the team you think need to follow up on?
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Mig. You know, we were talking about this as a team, and the reality is, when you sit where we sit and you've got a value of continuous improvement, you look at all the things, man, we made a lot of progress, and it's hard not to acknowledge the progress, the portfolio of the businesses, the improvements in the operating side. But when one of your values is continuous improvement, you're never satisfied. And so, you know, continuing to drive that improvement area. I will say our safety performance, we were on a good curve. That's flattened out, and so that's one thing I'll be encouraging the team to drive an improvement on. And clearly, with the balance sheet, the M&A activity has been slow here.
You know, this year we've been on a couple of things that didn't work out. And so, you know, would like to return to inorganic growth on the M&A side, and you know, hope not be in a plan that we'll see that as we go forward. But again, we'll be disciplined, and that would be an area that, you know, I think there will be opportunity. I think there is opportunity for the future, and we've got the balance sheet and the cash flow to support that and/or share repurchase if you know, taking advantage, as Julie said it. You know, at these valuations, at this share price, it's a pretty, pretty high IRR return to our shareholders to be buying shares.
Mig Dobre (Senior Research Analyst, Machinery & Diversified Industrial)
Understood. Now, my follow-up is on MP, and I'm struggling a little bit to make sense of kind of what's going on from a demand standpoint, because, you know, look, if we're looking at your orders in a quarter, probably the lowest level of order intake that we've seen in several years here. And when I listen to what your European competitors, like Sandvik or Epiroc, were kind of saying about the processing side of their businesses, they're kind of seeing softer orders and demand in infrastructure as well. So I guess maybe an update for you as to what's going on there, and do you expect demand to actually rebound in 2024, or should we sort of prepare for this continued gradual order and backlog erosion?
Thank you.
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Again, backlog, I think, will trend to more normal levels as production levels increase. I think book-to-bill is going to return to more normal levels as our lead times, because the other thing, our lead times are so extended in certain product categories. You know, again, our aggregates business is strong. I mentioned the sentiment in Europe. Concrete is strong in the U.S. I called out Fuchs. That's an area of potential softness. Environmental business, though, is strong, and it's offset that. In our lifting business, we mentioned lifting softness and tower cranes, but real strength in our Franna business down in Australia. They're booked out for the year. So, you know, overall, you know, we're obviously very cognizant of what's going on.
Global business, global diversification, the diversification within MP. I think there's gonna be some puts and takes as we head into 2024, and I would say probably the North American market, you know, remains strong, given the customer sentiment on this side of the pond, which is, you know, which is much stronger than Europe right now, especially in the U.K. and Germany.
Mig Dobre (Senior Research Analyst, Machinery & Diversified Industrial)
All right. Thank you. Good luck.
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Mig.
Operator (participant)
We have no further questions. I'd like to turn the call back over to John Garrison for closing remarks.
John Garrison (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you, operator. It has been a pleasure, and I appreciate all of the kind comments that the analysts had to interact with all of you in the investor community. You know, I look forward to speaking with you over the coming months and introducing Simon as we transition responsibility over the coming months. If you have any additional questions, please don't hesitate to follow up with Julie, John, or Paretosh. And again, as always, thank you for your interest in Terex. Operator, you can disconnect the call.
Operator (participant)
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.