TI
TECOGEN INC. (TGEN)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 revenue was $7.18M, up 27.6% YoY, but down 1.5% QoQ; gross margin compressed to 30.4% (vs 44.1% YoY, 33.8% QoQ) as service costs rose and the company invested ~$700k in engine upgrades in NJ/Manhattan to extend service intervals .
- Revenue beat consensus by ~$0.50M (+7.6%), driven by strong chiller sales; EPS missed (actual -$0.07 vs -$0.05 consensus) as margins and OpEx weighed on results .
- Cash improved to $15.25M after the July follow-on offering; backlog was ~$4M (excludes data center LOIs), with cannabis projects of $2.5–$3.5M expected late Q4 .
- Strategic traction in data centers: LOI scope expanded (three sites), engagement with hyperscalers and AI chip makers, and momentum in Vertiv partnership—key near-term catalysts are converting LOIs to POs and scaling manufacturing capacity by year-end .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Revenue growth and mix: Q3 total revenue rose to $7.18M (+27.6% YoY), led by product revenue ($2.98M, +114.5% YoY) with strong chiller deliveries including hybrid-drive units .
- Strategic progress in data centers and Vertiv: “the potential data center customer we have an LOI from is now considering us for three sites… The Vertiv relationship has also taken a positive turn and is building momentum” — Abinand Rangesh, CEO .
- Balance sheet strengthened: cash and cash equivalents increased to $15.25M at quarter-end following the July offering, providing capital to expand factory output and marketing .
What Went Wrong
- Margin pressure: overall gross margin fell to 30.4% (from 44.1% YoY and 33.8% QoQ), with service margin down to 25% (from 44% YoY and 38% QoQ) due to higher material/labor and $700k engine upgrades; Adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $(1.77)M .
- EPS deterioration and OpEx: EPS was a loss of $(0.07) vs $(0.06) in Q2 and $(0.04) in Q3’24; OpEx increased 27.7% YoY to $4.28M on payroll, benefits, recruitment, and sales commissions .
- Energy Production softness: revenue declined to $0.26M (-34% YoY) on contract expirations and temporary site repairs .
Financial Results
Consolidated P&L Snapshot (Sequential and YoY)
Segment Breakdown
KPIs and Balance Sheet Highlights
Actuals vs Consensus (S&P Global)
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “the potential data center customer we have an LOI from is now considering us for three sites and for a much larger portion of the AI load… This may result in significantly more chiller sales than the original LOI.” — Abinand Rangesh, CEO .
- “We have also now attracted the interest of bigger, more established data center developers… power allocated to cooling is larger than we originally anticipated… The Vertiv relationship has also taken a positive turn and is building momentum.” — Abinand Rangesh, CEO .
- “We have also increased our R&D spend to push our technical edge in natural gas cooling and increase service intervals… To test our product improvements… we invested $700k in new engines this quarter. Although this impacts service margin substantially in the short term, it will more than pay for itself in longer term benefits.” — Abinand Rangesh, CEO .
Q&A Highlights
- The company scheduled its Q3 earnings call for Nov 13, 2025 (9:30am ET) and provided webcast/recording details; full transcript was not available in the current document set .
- Management indicated they would “shed more light on next steps to convert our LOI… to a PO, next steps with some of the larger developers, and recent developments in the Vertiv relationship,” framing expected Q&A focus areas .
Estimates Context
- Revenue beat: $7.18M actual vs $6.68M consensus* (+$0.50M, +7.5%), driven by chiller shipments and product revenue strength, including hybrid-drive chiller deliveries .
- EPS miss: -$0.07 actual vs -$0.05 consensus*, reflecting gross margin compression (services) and higher OpEx (payroll/benefits/recruitment/commissions) .
- Limited consensus history available for other Qs; where not available, we anchor comparisons to reported actuals.
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Revenue strength and data center traction provide upside optionality; the near-term stock catalyst is LOI conversion to PO and additional hyperscaler/AI chip maker wins .
- Margin inflection depends on service cost normalization and scaling product volumes; watch Q4 for service margin recovery post engine upgrades and hybrid chiller volume effects .
- Balance sheet is positioned to fund capacity expansion and growth initiatives post raise; monitor execution on factory layout changes and contract manufacturing ramp by YE .
- Vertiv partnership momentum could accelerate market access and supply chain scaling; any formalized programs or joint marketing would be positive .
- Energy Production remains a drag due to expirations/repairs; incremental focus should be on product/services mix and margin quality .
- Dilution from the follow-on is evident in share count; longer-term valuation will hinge on converting pipeline into orders and achieving >40% gross margin target sustainably .
- Trade tactically around catalysts (PO announcements, major developer wins) while underwriting medium-term thesis on natural gas cooling’s value proposition in AI data centers (freeing electrical power for compute and improving resiliency) .