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TG

Tingo Group, Inc. (TIO)·Q4 2022 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2022 marked a structural inflection as Tingo Group consolidated one month of Tingo Mobile (Dec-22), driving a sharp sequential step-up in quarterly revenue (derived) and gross profit, while full-year pro forma revenue reached $1.152B and pro forma EBITDA $954.5M .
  • Pro forma growth was broad-based: Nwassa Agri-Fintech revenue rose 168% YoY to $532.2M; handset leasing rose 50.3% YoY to $476.3M; cash balance closed at $500.3M, positioning the company for strategic initiatives .
  • Q4 catalysts: AFAN partnership launch (20M incremental farmers), Ghana/Ashanti trade deal (2–4M target enrollments), DMCC commodity export platform, and TingoPay Visa rollout accelerated scale and dollarization prospects .
  • No formal numerical guidance was issued; management highlighted considering special dividends/buybacks to address perceived share price disconnect and underscored audited balance sheet strength (Deloitte) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Material pro forma scale and profitability: FY22 pro forma revenue $1.152B (+25% YoY; +85.5% YoY ex 2021 handset sale), pro forma EBITDA $954.5M, and pro forma operating income $554.6M .
  • Platform expansion and partnerships: AFAN launch and Ghana/Ashanti deal accelerated customer growth to 11.4M by Dec-31 and >$1B transactions in December, validating marketplace engagement .
  • Strategic ecosystem build-out: DMCC export business and TingoPay Visa set the foundation to dollarize revenues, monetize commodity flows, and broaden B2C/B2B monetization vectors .
    • Quote: “We have signed trade partnerships that are expected to triple Tingo Mobile’s customers by the end of 2023… launching two new businesses… puts us into a very strong position for 2023 and beyond.” — Darren Mercer .

What Went Wrong

  • GAAP consolidated FY22 still reported a net loss of $47.1M, largely due to tax expense tied to the acquisition and consolidation, and non-recurring items; G&A was elevated at $58.2M with $9.6M transaction costs and $6.6M share-based payments .
  • Limited quarterly disclosure granularity: Q4 KPIs were highlighted qualitatively, but formal numerical guidance was not provided, complicating consensus comparison .
  • FX convertibility constraints: majority of cash held in Nigeria, where FX restrictions limit conversion; management emphasized dollarization via DMCC, Visa/TingoPay, and expansion into freer currency markets (Ghana, Dubai) .

Financial Results

Quarterly Comparison (MICT/Tingo Group transition; Q4 includes Dec-22 consolidation of Tingo Mobile)

MetricQ2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022 (derived)
Revenue ($USD Millions)$11.958 $13.757 $110.757 (FY $146.035 − 9M $35.278)
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$2.073 $3.194 $58.260 (FY $64.792 − 9M $6.532)
Gross Margin (%)17.4% 23.0% ~52.6% (derived: $58.260/$110.757)
Net Income - (IS) ($USD Millions)$(14.337) $(7.671) $(16.375) (FY $(47.069) − 9M $(30.694))
Diluted EPS - Continuing Operations ($)$(0.11) $(0.06) N/A (no quarterly shares disclosed)

Notes: Q4 figures are derived by difference from reported FY and 9M data due to disclosure format change post-acquisition .

Pro Forma Segment Revenue (FY 2022 vs FY 2021)

Segment ($USD Millions)FY 2021FY 2022YoY
Mobile handset sales (non-recurring)$301.0 $24.1 N/M
Mobile handset leasing$316.9 $476.3 +50.3%
Mobile call and data$49.3 $61.5 +12.2%
Nwassa – Airtime$10.1 $14.7 +45.5%
Nwassa – Brokerage on loans$2.3 $26.3 +1,043.4%
Nwassa – Insurance$14.4 $25.7 +78.5%
Nwassa – Trading of agricultural produce$80.7 $273.9 +239.4%
Nwassa – Utility bill payment$91.1 $191.6 +110.3%
Nwassa subtotal$198.6 $532.2 +168.0%
MICT Insurance & Financial Services$55.7 $57.5 +3.2%
Total Pro Forma Revenue$921.5 $1,151.6 +24.9%

Pro Forma P&L Summary (FY)

Metric ($USD Millions)FY 2021FY 2022
Revenue$921.5 $1,151.6
Gross Profit$343.7 $674.6
Operating Income/(Loss)$(47.0) $554.6
EBITDA (non-GAAP)$275.6 $954.5
Net Income/(Loss) Before Tax$(47.7) $555.5
Net Income/(Loss)$(128.9) $338.3
Cash (Dec-31)$223.3 $500.3

KPIs

KPIQ4 2022Notes
Nwassa customers11.4M Up from 9.3M at Sep-30
December transaction volume>$1.0B Single month throughput
AFAN partnership20M minimum new customers commitment Launched Nov-16, 2022
Ghana/Ashanti partnership2–4M target enrollments Launched Nov-10, 2022
DMCC export platformLaunched Dec-12, 2022 First ~$65M export contract

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue/EPS/MarginsFY/Q4 2022Not providedNot providedMaintained (no formal guidance)
Capital return2023 (forward-looking)N/AConsidering special dividend and buyback programNew consideration
Strategic focus2023 (forward-looking)N/ADollarization/globalization via DMCC, Visa/TingoPay; ecosystem build-outStrategic acceleration

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2022 (MICT)Q3 2022 (MICT)Q4 2022 (Tingo Group)Trend
Insurance margin/China recoveryMargin improved to 17.4%; path to profitability Gross margin reached 23% Business pivot to complement Tingo ecosystem; focus shifts to agri/fintech Improving, then de-emphasized post-merger
Partnerships & expansionS-4 filed; preparing Tingo rollout AFAN/AIT deals highlighted; acquisition closing targeted Nov-30 AFAN launch, Ghana/Ashanti, Malawi, DMCC, TingoPay Visa Strong acceleration
Dollarization/FXN/AAnticipated USD revenue via exports DMCC export platform to dollarize; Visa/TingoPay pan-Africa Strengthening
ESG/missionN/AN/AEmphasis on food security, farmer upliftment, ESG framework Elevated
Audit/controlsN/AAdvisors engaged (Deloitte, MZ, Haitong) Deloitte audited YE 2022 balance sheet; SOX review via Grant Thornton Improved governance

Management Commentary

  • “Highlights in the pro forma income statement include the 200% growth in gross profit in 2022 to $675 million, and a move from a Net Income Before Tax loss of $47 million in 2021 to a Net Income Before Tax surplus of more than $550 million in 2022.” — Darren Mercer .
  • “We signed trade partnerships that are expected to triple Tingo Mobile’s customers by the end of 2023… launching two new businesses, namely Tingo DMCC and TingoPay.” — Darren Mercer .
  • “We are particularly excited about the completion of the virtuous circle of our agri-fintech eco-system… deliver on our mission and our ESG goals… meaningfully improve global food security and financial inclusion.” — Dozy Mmobuosi .

Q&A Highlights

  • On restructuring legacy MICT businesses: “One of the great assets… is the number of regulated licenses… We can now combine that with a very large user and customer base… numerous opportunities we can leverage, all of which can add material profitability to the group.” — Darren Mercer (Q&A) .
  • On addressing share price disconnect: With Deloitte audit completed and strong cash, the Board is evaluating options, including capital return mechanisms .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2022 EPS and revenue was unavailable due to missing CIQ mapping for TIO at the time; comparisons to estimates cannot be made. Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable due to mapping constraints.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q4 (with Dec-22 consolidation) showcased the step-change in scale: derived Q4 revenue ~$110.8M and gross margin ~52.6% underscore the impact of Tingo Mobile and the higher-margin Nwassa and leasing businesses .
  • Pro forma FY22 metrics point to a materially profitable platform with diversified revenue streams and strong cash reserves ($500.3M), enabling strategic flexibility .
  • Execution catalysts: AFAN and Ghana/Ashanti partnerships, DMCC export monetization, and TingoPay Visa rollout support customer acquisition, dollarization, and margin durability .
  • Near-term trading lens: Watch for confirmations of capital return actions and incremental export contract flow-through to reported GAAP numbers; FX conversion constraints highlight importance of DMCC/visa-driven USD revenues .
  • Medium-term thesis: Ecosystem synergy (seed-to-sale: Nwassa → Tingo Foods → DMCC) and regulated licenses from legacy MICT can widen monetization, but disclosure clarity and continued audit rigor remain key to sustaining investor confidence .
  • Data caveat: Quarterly consensus estimates were not accessible via S&P Global for Q4 2022; focus on reported pro forma/GAAP trends until mapping resolves.