Turkcell - Earnings Call - Q4 2024
February 27, 2025
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I am Gail Lee, your conference operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Turkcell's conference call and live webcast to present and discuss the Turkcell fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results. All participants will be in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a question-and-answer session. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on your telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mrs. Özlem Yardim, Investor Relations and Corporate Finance Director. Mrs. Yardim, you may now proceed.
Özlem Yardim (Investor Relations and Corporate Finance Director)
Thank you, Gail Lee. Hello, everyone. Welcome to Turkcell's 2024 full year earnings call. Today, our CEO, Ali Taha Koç, and CFO, Kamil Kalyon, will be delivering a brief presentation covering operational and financial results, which will be followed by a Q&A session. Before we begin, I would like to kindly remind you to review our safe harbor statement available at the end of our presentation. Now, I'm handing the meeting over to Mr. Ali Taha Koç.
Ali Taha Koç (CEO)
Thank you, Özlem. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for being with us today. This year, in which we celebrated our 30th anniversary, has been a testament to our dedication and achievements. We delivered on our promises, honored our commitments, and strengthened our foundation for the future. For the full year, our top line reached TRY 166.7 billion, reflecting a 7.8% year-on-year rise, surpassing our guidance. With a strong focus on profitability, we achieved TRY 69.8 billion in EBITDA, maintaining a solid margin just below 42%. Throughout the year, we prioritized upselling and driving customers to postpaid plans, leading to a record-breaking 1.9 million net postpaid additions, the highest of the past 15 years. In addition, we delivered double-digit ARPU growth, supported by a disciplined pricing strategy and an expanding postpaid base. In total, we added a net of 0.6 million subscribers in 2024.
A key milestone of the year was the completion of our Ukraine assets sale in the third quarter. Along with this, we delivered a 30% increase in net income, exceeding TRY 23.5 billion. Next slide, please, Özlem. Let's take a look at our operational performance. On the mobile front, the aggressive pricing dynamics that began in May persisted into the second half of the year. There were no price adjustments across the market beyond July. With intensified competitor campaigns, particularly in December, the market remained highly competitive. While we strategically responded to these moves, we closed Q4 with 479,000 postpaid net adds. Over the past year, our postpaid base has grown by 1.9 million, raising the postpaid share to 76%, marking a 5-point increase year-on-year. We had 0.9 million quarterly net loss in the prepaid segment.
This is mainly due to broader adoption of alternative data solutions, the quarterly disconnection of inactive subscribers in line with our churn policy, and postpaid migrations. We achieved double-digit ARPU growth, driven by our rational pricing strategy, successful upselling to higher packages, an expanding postpaid base, and a slowdown in CPI. However, due to accelerated market aggressiveness and life cycle closures, the churn rate rose to 2.8%. We have retained our focus on profitability and leveraged our digital services to support ARPU growth. As a result, our standalone paid user base is at 4.8 million in Q4. Next, please. In Q4, the fixed broadband market remained relatively rational, other than the late price adjustments among small ISPs. We maintained our focus on fiber subscribers, strong demand for our high-speed end-to-end fiber service through 32,000 net additions in this quarter, bringing the full year net adds to 168,000.
Momentum in the demand for high-speed packages continued in this quarter. The share of packages of 100 megabits per second and above in our residential fiber portfolio rose by 12 percentage points year-on-year. Residential fiber ARPU grew by 18.8% year-on-year. This is mainly due to the rising 12-month contract share to 85%, higher usage of 100 megabits per second plus packages, and price adjustments. The slight rise in churn is mainly due to price increases and the transition to 12-month contracts. Meanwhile, our take-up rate rose by 1.7 points year-on-year, as we focus on adding fiber subscribers over expanding home pass coverage. Next, please. Digital business services generated TRY 4.4 billion in revenue this quarter, with recurring service revenues rising 19% year-on-year. Hardware revenues also provided support, showing a partial recovery this quarter. Notably, our system integration project backlog has reached TRY 4.8 billion.
In our high-potential data center and cloud segment, revenues rose 39%, driven by high demand and strong pricing. Guided by our principle of keeping Türkiye's data in Türkiye, we remain committed to expanding our data center investments, reinforcing our long-standing market leadership. We are Türkiye's first company to receive triple Tier III certification from the Uptime Institute for design, facility, and operations. Our data centers are built to the highest standards, ensuring redundancy, reliability, and near-zero downtime. This makes us the number one choice for top enterprises, securing our long-term growth potential. To meet growing demand, we expanded our data center capacity by 27% to 41.4 MW in 2024. In 2025, we plan to build two more new modules, increasing our capacity by 8.4 MW by year-end. Next, please. Our Techfin segment, Paycell and Financell, comprises 5% of our group revenues, strengthening our top-line growth.
Paycell, our mobile payment platform, achieved 33% growth in Q4. While all verticals contributed, the biggest drivers were higher commissions and transaction volumes from Pay Later and POS solutions. Notably, Pay Later transaction volumes surged by 87%, fueled by broader adoption in app stores and expanded QR payment eligibility. Meanwhile, Paycell's EBITDA grew by 51.8%, with a 4% touchpoint increase in EBITDA margin, reinforcing our commitment to profitable growth. Financell's revenue rose by 13.6%, supported by higher average interest rates and an expanded loan portfolio. Thanks to the personalized pricing strategy we adopted in 2024, we are now able to address a wider customer segment. This strategy has contributed to our portfolio growth. The rising interest in our loan book is offsetting higher funding costs, driving the net interest margin up to 4.6%.
Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, Financell remains the market leader in loan volume within the financing sector, a proof of our strength and resilience. Next, please. This year, I'm proud to say that we stayed true to our commitment to sustainability, reaching key milestones along the way. We successfully issued a $1 billion Eurobond, with half of it marking our inaugural sustainable bond issues, a clear reflection of our ESG efforts. Our CFO will share the details shortly. On the renewable energy front, we added 8.2 MW of active solar capacity in 2024, on track to reach 54 MW by mid-2025. Additionally, we integrated solar panels to 1,000 base stations, further strengthening our commitment to renewable energy in our telco operations. Our social and digital inclusion projects have impacted 377,000 lives.
We also conducted a sustainability assessment for our key suppliers to reinforce our ESG commitment in the supply chain. In governance, transparency, and accountability remain our guiding principles. As part of our bond issuance, we published our first Sustainable Finance Framework and secured an independent third-party opinion to help investors assess our ESG commitments. These milestones underscore our dedication to sustainability, and we remain committed to building a more responsible and inclusive future. I want to take a moment to lay out our strategy, our roadmap for driving Turkcell into the future. At the heart of our plan lies a commitment to robust infrastructure and cutting-edge technology. We are making comprehensive investments to pave the way forward. Our leadership in mobile services will continue as we advance in 5G, coupled with an expanding fiber network not only to power mobile infrastructure but also to enhance residential access.
When it comes to 5G, we are committed to leading the way in connectivity. Just last week, we successfully tested 5G in a packed football stadium with around 50,000 supporters, delivering impressive download speeds of one gigabit per second and above. As data and cloud services surge, we are building next-generation data centers. While to meet growing energy demand, we remain committed to renewable energy investments. Our strategy is about more than infrastructure alone. It is about transforming lives. We are dedicated to delivering superior technologies. We are embedding AI into our operations, ensuring operational excellence. With continued investments in data centers, we are driving growth in the cloud business through strategic partnerships. And as a pioneering innovator, we are actively exploring disruptive technologies such as 6G, satellite systems, and quantum technologies in collaboration with global industrial leaders.
Our mission is clear: to keep our service simple, functional, and unique, ensuring we remain the first choice of our customers. No matter the sector, no matter the challenge, our people-centric approach remains our guiding principle. Finally, sustainability and business continuity form the backbone of our strategic vision. With this strategy, we are unlocking the full potential of our world-class infrastructure and technology expertise, delivering lasting value to our stakeholders and shaping the future of connectivity. To conclude my presentation, I share our guidance for 2025. For 2025, we expect 7%-9% top-line revenue growth, 32%-34% data center and cloud revenue growth. We have an EBITDA margin guidance of 41%-42%, and we expect a CapEx intensity of around 24%. I will now leave the floor to our CFO, Mr. Kamil Kalyon.
Kamil Kalyon (CFO)
Thank you very much, Ali Koç. Despite inflationary headwinds, we delivered solid financial results in 2024. Our group top-line grew by 8% year-over-year, exceeding TRY 166 billion. Turkcell Türkiye accounted for 92% of this growth, contributing an additional 11 billion TRY. This performance was driven by a delicate balance between an expanding subscriber base, double-digit ARPU growth, and upsell efforts. The Techfin segment more than offset the decline in the other segments, contributing 2 billion TRY to top-line growth. This was primarily driven by Paycell's 25% and Financell's 33% growth levels. On a quarterly basis, an incremental revenue of 5.3 billion TRY was generated, reflecting strong 14% growth. In the quarter, a limited recovery in hardware sales positively impacted other segment revenue. Next slide, please. In 2024, EBITDA surged by 10.2% to 70 billion TRY, driven by a strong top-line performance. Accordingly, the EBITDA margin expanded by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year.
Higher personal expenses due to semi-annual wage increases and rising funding costs reduced the EBITDA margin by 3.4 points. These impacts were offset by lower cost of goods sold, energy expenses, and interconnection expenses. Lower growth in the cost of goods sold due to the decreasing demand for consumer electronics and corporate projects and a decline in MTR have positively contributed to the margin. Additionally, energy expenses were lower than expected throughout the year, also supporting the margin. Next slide, please. The operational CapEx-to-sales ratio for 2024 was 22.8%. Given the seasonality of telecommunication investments and the completion of data center and renewable energy investments at the year-end, we see higher CapEx intensity in the fourth quarter. 63% of our investments were allocated to mobile and fixed infrastructure, with an equal focus on both.
Around 5% of CapEx intensity came from investments in strategic initiatives, namely the data centers and renewable energy projects. As our CEO has underlined, we remain committed to four key investment areas to reinforce our strategy: advancing our state-of-the-art infrastructure, enhancing 4.5G capabilities, and strengthening our position for 5G. To enable a full-fledged 5G experience, we aim to increase base station fiberization to 48%, growing data center capacity by adding 8.4 MW of active capacity with the construction of two new modules in Europe and Ankara data centers, and finally continuing to expand solar renewable energy investments. As a result, we anticipate around 24% CapEx intensity in 2025. Next slide, please. Now let's turn our attention to the balance sheet. In 2024, our cash position stood at 70 billion TL. In the fourth quarter, we distributed 6.3 billion TL in dividends from 2023.
Additionally, to make efficient use of our cash, we invested in financial assets. Our gross debt was 104 billion TRY, and we ended the quarter with a net debt position of 10 billion TRY. Thanks to strong cash generation and proceeds from the sale of our Ukrainian assets, our net leverage declined to 0.14 times. We have adequate cash to meet our debt service for the coming three years. A significant portion of our cash is held in hard currencies. Excluding FX swaps, 51% of our cash is in US dollars and 22% in euros. Next slide, please. This January, we reached a major milestone for both our company and our country by issuing a $1 billion Eurobond, the largest international bond in Turkcell's history. This transaction marked only the second time in the last decade that a Turkish corporate has priced a dual-tranche offering.
The strong outcome once again confirmed global investor confidence in Turkcell. The issuance attracted higher oversubscription levels than any other Turkish corporate issuer in the second half of 2024. Moreover, in the past year, Turkcell had the lowest spread over the Turkish Treasury Eurobond compared to other Turkish corporate issuers. The issuance also reinforced our commitment to ESG as one of the tranches in inaugural sustainable bonds. It further helped us broaden our investor base by attracting funds focused on ESG investments. With this issuance, we aim to refinance our existing Eurobond maturing in October 2025 and support future growth initiatives, including 5G and data center investments, as well as securing green and social projects. Next slide, please. Lastly, let's look into the management of foreign currency risk for 2024.
At the end of 2024, our balance sheet had around $2.4 billion US dollar equivalent in FX financial liabilities. In addition to $2 billion US dollar equivalent of FX denominated financial assets, we have a $0.3 billion US dollar effective hedging portfolio. Overall, we ended up with a short FX position of $124 million, which is within our neutral FX position definition of plus and minus $200 million. This concludes our presentation, and we can now open the line for questions.
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by one on their telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, then you may press star and two. Please use your handset when asking your question for better quality. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. One moment for the first question, please. The first question is from the line of Ece Mandacı with Ünlü & Co. Please go ahead.
Ece Mandaci (Director)
Hello. Thank you very much for the presentation. I have a couple of questions about the prospective 5G tender, and you had also some comments in your interview before regarding the tender. So what's your view regarding the timeline of the standard and potential license size? The frequency, sorry, the spectrum were already announced, but what's your view regarding the potential investment size of this or license fees of this standard? I mean, the scope of the standard. And could there be regarding with the standard, could there be any change in the mechanism, in the pricing mechanism of the contracts, mobile contracts? Could there be a change in there? Because you had also mentioned the dynamic pricing model you proposed that in your interview, I just read about it, and could there be any possibility of more premium pricing with the deployment of 5G in Türkiye? Could that be possible, and could that contribute to your overall average ARPU performance going forward? And additionally, you set a target of 24% operational CapEx over sales, and you stated that this does not include any license fee, but there will be still the costs regarding the fiberization of these base stations, linking the base stations, so these efforts are linked to, of course, the 5G deployment, so should we expect that this CapEx over sales to remain around this level in 2025 and 2026 at around 24% operational CapEx over sales, so the final question is about infrastructure sharing models: could it be possible, or is this an idea?
Because there were some comments from the ministry about that there could be another tender about the fiber infrastructure. I just want to hear about your views overall about the things I have mentioned. Thank you very much.
Ali Taha Koç (CEO)
Thank you, Ali. Let me tell you that there is no official timeline for 5G announced by the regulator yet. But we know that 2025, there's going to be a tender, and 2026, there's going to be a live 5G network. But the official timeline is not well announced yet. However, recent statements indicate that the tender definitely will be going to be this year. So as Turkcell, we are determined to establish our 5G infrastructure with local and national technologies as much as possible, and we will continue our ongoing efforts to support the development of these technologies. We are committed to leading the way in connectivity.
Just as I explained in my talk last week, we managed to show the speed of 5G to all the sports fans, football fans in both Vodafone Park Stadium and the Trabzon Stadium. So with a full pack of 50,000 people, people are experiencing the 5G. And it's a good starting point for Türkiye so that everybody is going to get a better experience of 5G. Because before that, there is only one place that you can experience the 5G, which is the airport. So this stadium approach is going to help us out that we are going to show the people how good the 5G is and how Turkcell 5G is going to be. Simultaneously, we are continuing our investment to upgrade our mobile and fixed backhaul network for 5G.
We are committing to building the best 5G Advanced, the latest version of the 5G network to support next-generation application, and as well as the digitization process of both government as well as the industry. We will continue to invest in fixed wireless access solutions, especially FWA. Fixed wireless access is a key feature of 5G to increase the broadband connectivity in Türkiye, where we can provide fiber-like speeds where there is no fiberization. So fixed wireless access is a good possible alternative for the fibers. Alongside our network preparation, we continue to intensify our efforts with our business partners for R&D perspective. And especially 5G is going to be for the things, focusing on the Internet of Things. And so we are looking for the additional revenues from this kind of deals, especially as well as non-terrestrial networks and satellite networks.
For the other question about the tender, with respect to the 2026 tender about the fiber infrastructure, the announcement of our minister, we have gladly welcomed the minister's statements. Actually, there is significant demand for fiber infrastructure, both from corporate side and individual side in Turkey. There is still a considerable need for further investment to expand fiber infrastructure across our country. We are ready to take on this national responsibility as Turkcell, delivering the same world-class services in fiber broadband that we provide up to now in mobile communication. We are ready for it. As I have always emphasized, at the end of this process, Turkey will be the winner, benefiting from enhanced quality and cost efficiency. As Turkcell, we continue our investments, strengthening our fiber infrastructure and bringing innovative technologies to our nation.
Kamil Kalyon (CFO)
Ece, thank you very much for the question. I will try to respond to the second one. As you mentioned, we do not include our license fee to operational CapEx to sales ratio. Therefore, our guidance would not include the license fee. For 2025, we will be focusing on our core business, mobile and the fixed site more for the preparation of the 5G site. Besides that, we will continue to make the investments for the data centers and the solar energy site. Our expectation, we do expect to stand in 24% CapEx intensity ratio in 2025. Most probably in 2026, we will not exceed such kind of CapEx intensity rates.
Ece Mandaci (Director)
Thank you very much. From your comment, I understand that there could be a possibility of premium pricing with 5G deployment with higher usage of the additional services you have mentioned. And do you have any perspective regarding the potential size of the license fee? Because since 2016, things have changed. Maybe the 5G deployment will not be necessary all over Turkey. Maybe it will be regional. So could there be a possibility of lower license fees overall than in 2016? I suppose I remember it was EUR 4 billion for the sector, including the VAT. So could there be a possibility of lower license fee for the sector?
Ali Taha Koç (CEO)
So for the pricing perspective, we don't know. Actually, your question answered your question also includes the answer. Because we don't know the actual licensing fees. So we couldn't manage or we couldn't decide on the pricing strategy. But to say the truth, in Turkcell, we are always following the inflationary pricing. So we are not yet done about the pricing strategy because of all the cost infrastructure, the needs.
Because depending on the tender requirements and also the amount of the tender and licensing fee, everything is going to change, so up to now, our Turkcell strategy is the following of the inflationary pricing in all technology that it provides to the customers.
Kamil Kalyon (CFO)
And regarding the license fee, unfortunately, we do not have any, how can I say, information provided by the governmental bodies regarding the 5G tender yet, but I think it would not be same as in 4.5G tender because there was a significant and important technology transformation while you are forming 3G to 4.5G is a little bit different, significantly different. Most probably, our expectation is not high as in the 4.5G tender, but still, we do not have any idea regarding how the governmental bodies will design this tender.
For example, we do not have any idea whether they will, for example, request a, how can I say, fixed fee or the fee, for example, as a revenue share model. There might be some possibilities. It's not clear yet. We will wait and see.
Ali Taha Koç (CEO)
Everything's on the table, and to say it to your question, EUR 4 billion is for all three operators. Turkcell paid EUR 1.6 billion for the 4.5G tender. So in order to correct that, it is total amount that the government collects from the three operators is around EUR 4 billion in 2015 and 2016.
Ece Mandaci (Director)
Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from the line of Cemal Demirtaş with Ata Invest. Please go ahead.
Cemal Demirtaş (Deputy General Manager)
Thank you for the presentation. My first question is related to your growth prospects. As far as I remember, you were more just passionate about the growth side. Again, this year after 8% and others 9%, your expertise, do you think we are going to see momentum in the growth prospects in the following years? Because I remember that you are very passionate about doubling this company going forward. What should we expect for the following years? Or could you further elaborate the assumptions behind your similar growth prospects in 2025 compared to 2024? That's my first question. And the other one is the financial side, the bottom line. We see that your net debt level is coming down going forward. Are we going to see improvement at the bottom line in the second quarter, or does it depend on the interest rates? Thank you.
Kamil Kalyon (CFO)
Thank you very much, Cemal. As you know, that 8%, our growth rate is around 8%. This is a real growth after the inflationary accounting. Therefore, this is a very significant growth rate from our perspective because we are the market leader and we are keeping going on to make the growth rate. As you know, there is an inflationary accounting perspective, and it's really hard to estimate how the 2025 will realize regarding this inflationary accounting perspective. Because as you might be aware, the January inflation rate is declared over the expectations. Therefore, such kind of measures are really significantly affecting our estimations for the growth side. 7%-9% growth rate is a good target from our perspective. We will look at the developments in the competition in 2025, and the inflation developments will really affect our growth rate. But I can easily say that 7%-9% real growth is still very good from our perspective.
I think the second one is related to net debt to related to your financial expenses side. Regarding the financial expenses side, we had a very successful balance sheet management in 2024. Our liquidity position is very good, and when we look at our credit portfolio, we have a basket approach, and we are diversifying the financial instruments very well. Therefore, we are keeping this finance income and expense very well. The other perspective, the other important issue is regarding the FX losses. You know that there is a stability in the FX side in 2024. Therefore, we keep our short position very long time in 2024, and it really positively affects our income statements below the EBITDA level. Therefore, we keep going on. In 2025, we will be looking at the macroeconomic and geopolitical and the political developments in Turkey.
If we need to change our hedging strategy, we will be looking and chasing the developments in the market level. Most probably, we do not wait and expect any problem about this issue because when you look at our balance sheet situation, we are very rich about the cash side. Therefore, we do not have any liquidity pressure, and I think it will help us to manage our financial income and expense very well.
Cemal Demirtaş (Deputy General Manager)
Thank you. And maybe in the business lines, you mentioned the growth in the cloud and the data center side. What about the other side? Do you expect a similar trend in the other side, lower growth prospect there? And in the Turkcell Turkey side, do you see the pricing environment supportive, or you are still seeing the increase in competition compared to maybe the last quarter?
Kamil Kalyon (CFO)
Yeah. Normally, while we are making our estimations for the growth side, yes, Turkcell Turkey will be the most important, how can I say, strategic point for the growth side. But when you look at, for example, our financials in fintech side, we, for example, our growth rates are in real terms around 20% or 30% levels. Therefore, I think this TechFin will also be a denominator in the 2025 side. As you mentioned, we are making an investment in the data center side, and we are taking the fruits of these investments starting from a three-year period. Most probably, after adding the new modules to our portfolio, our income or revenue coming from the data center will increase. That's why we are giving an importance to this data center and cloud issues. That's why we put this as a guidance item this year.
And when you look at our guidance, it's around 33%, for example, the real growth rate. This is very important, real, after the inflation. Therefore, these amounts or these rates are very significant, and these are the main motivators of the growth in 2025. But I would like to say something about the irrational and illogical competition, unfortunately, started from the second half of 2024. It currently continues. As a market leader, we would like to stabilize or rationalize the market, but some of our competitors are making very aggressive campaigns. They are continuing to make this in January and February. We are looking, we are chasing the developments, and we are taking the necessary actions. But don't worry that we will keep on being the market leader in the midterm and the long term in Turkey.
Cemal Demirtaş (Deputy General Manager)
Thank you. And very last question related to the monetary position side. When we look into the details, we see that your financials after inflation accounting, when we look at your figures, and when we look at your pre-inflationary figures, just based on the footnotes related to net monetary gain, I see that if inflation accounting was not applied, your profit would have been around 12 billion lower when I look at the details. Is that a fair statement? Or in a simple way, if the inflation accounting didn't apply, your profit would be lower. Is it a fair statement?
Kamil Kalyon (CFO)
No, it's not fair. Pre-inflation figures, I don't know what kind of calculation did you make, but you should take into consideration, especially regarding the depreciation side. Below EBITDA level, you are right, there are some positive or negative effects. But if you would like to, for example, how can I say, would like to find the non-inflationary figures, you should also eliminate the effects in the inflation side, depreciation side. Because depreciation is affected negatively from the inflationary accounting.
Cemal Demirtaş (Deputy General Manager)
My number is derived from your financial statements. You have the distribution of your net monetary gain. Maybe it's like in the market statements.
Kamil Kalyon (CFO)
In that, how can I say, account, we are not following the, for example, the effects of the depreciation in that account. The depreciation effect is mentioned in the depreciation accounts. Therefore, if you would like to, for example, find the non-inflationary side, you should also eliminate the inflation accounting effects in the depreciation side. If you want, maybe we can provide the detailed information about it.
Ali Taha Koç (CEO)
After the talk.
Cemal Demirtaş (Deputy General Manager)
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Because, yeah, after the meeting, we can. Thank you. Thank you for detailed answers.
Kamil Kalyon (CFO)
You're welcome.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from the line of Evgenia Bystrova with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Evgeniya Bystrova (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Yes, thank you very much. Thank you for the presentation. I have just two quick questions. So my first question is, could you please elaborate on what is your inflation assumption for 2025 that you are using in your guidance? And my second question is, given that basically your net leverage ratio is very low with all the balance sheet management things that you've done in 2024, and given that you're expecting more Capex and potentially some license fee payment, where are you seeing your net leverage at the end of this year? Thank you.
Kamil Kalyon (CFO)
Thank you very much for the question. Our year-end inflation assumption is around 31%. The average inflation rate would be around 33%. And regarding the net leverage, as you know, with the help of the proceeds from the sale of Ukraine assets, we completed the year with a leverage of 0.14 times levels. But our target is to keep leverage below the industry average. Most probably, it will be less than one times at the end of 2025. It depends on how this 5G tender and the other issues will realize. But most probably, it would be less than one times at the end of 2025.
Evgeniya Bystrova (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you very much.
Kamil Kalyon (CFO)
You're welcome.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from the line of Campos Gustavo with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Gustavo Campos (Emerging Markets Corporate Credit Analyst)
Hello. Congratulations on the results. Just a few questions from my side. Firstly, you were expecting some top-line growth while your margins will be sort of very similar to 2024. However, there are concerns of declining purchasing power for the Turkish consumer amidst this inflationary environment, as well as some potential pressure from competition. How do you expect to maintain EBITDA margins in this environment, and what will be your drivers for that? That is my first question. Thank you.
Kamil Kalyon (CFO)
Starting from the establishment state, Turkcell is doing these two issues very well. One of them is the growth side, and the other one is we are not only focusing on the growth side, but we are also very good at the cost management side. Therefore, while we are taking into consideration the growth rates, we are not giving any concession from our cost management side. Therefore, in 2024, we increased our EBITDA margin by 1% when you compare it to 2023. This is a really good success from our perspective.
The inflationary environment is not new for Türkiye, as you might be aware. We faced this crisis more than 20 years ago, and this was very sticky and a hyper-inflationary environment. Therefore, as I said, from the establishment date, we are doing this inflationary pricing very well as Turkcell, but we are also very sensitive about the cost management side. I think the results of this year and the previous years are the most important evidence of this discipline.
Ali Taha Koç (CEO)
And also, we have a very diversified revenue generation model. We have our telco business, as well as we have a tech segment, as well as we have right now our new guidance is the data center and cloud business. So with our diversified revenue generation model and portfolio, I think we can achieve these targets.
Gustavo Campos (Emerging Markets Corporate Credit Analyst)
Understood. Yes, that's crystal clear. Thank you. Thank you very much. I was also wondering about your CapEx breakdown. You mentioned you have a 48% target on fiber infrastructure, and then I am assuming that the other 50% of this CapEx will be directed to 5G tender, to expanding renewable capacities, etc. Is that a correct assessment of your expectations for CapEx in 2025?
Kamil Kalyon (CFO)
No, no. I would like to correct the, for example, our breakdown. For example, we are targeting to spend 32% for the mobile side in 2025, and 33% of our CapEx investments will go to fixed side. And when we look at this fixed side, the fiberization is included in the fixed side. Therefore, when you look at the total, 65% of our CapEx investments will go to our main focus areas, mobile and fixed side.
Gustavo Campos (Emerging Markets Corporate Credit Analyst)
Yep, understood. And that also will include any potential 5G tender and investments for this year, correct?
Kamil Kalyon (CFO)
This is 32% mobile investments, also including the 5G requirements or 5G investments that will be made in 2025, but license fee is not included into CapEx-to-sales ratio.
Ali Taha Koç (CEO)
These are just the base stations, network equipment, and then all this CapEx for the related to 5G. But it doesn't include the tender fee, licensing fee.
Gustavo Campos (Emerging Markets Corporate Credit Analyst)
Okay. Thank you very much. That's very helpful. Lastly, from my side, I was wondering what are your plans or your expectations for the 2025-year bond maturing in October. Is your plan to refinance it or just pay it in cash? Yeah, that's my last question.
Kamil Kalyon (CFO)
In January, we issued a Eurobond at the amount of $1 billion. Therefore, this Eurobond issuance is also for the preparation of the redemption of the Eurobond repayment that would be realized in October 2025. And the remaining portion of this 1 billion issue will be used for the 5G investments, data center investments, and the solar renewable energy investments.
Gustavo Campos (Emerging Markets Corporate Credit Analyst)
Perfect. Thank you very much. I appreciate it. I appreciate the details.
Kamil Kalyon (CFO)
Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question is from the line of Madvendra Singh with HSBC. Please go ahead.
Madhvendra Singh (Head of EEMEA Equity Research and Senior Analyst)
Yes, hi. Thanks for taking my question. The first question is on your mobile segment. It seems like the churn rate actually has gone higher. So wondering what is driving that higher churn. Is it because of the continuous price hikes, if at all? So if you could talk about the drivers there. Then the second question is about pricing outlook. Recently, the inflation expectations were raised, I think, in Türkiye.
So if you could remind us, can you still continue to pass on the inflation to the consumers? Is there any, let's say, issues from competition or regulation or anything which we need to know of? And then finally, I'm not sure whether I missed, but have you announced the dividends? And if not, when will that be done? And just remind us, what should we expect? Thank you.
Ali Taha Koç (CEO)
First question. Starting from 2024, the price adjustments that we implemented are also followed by the competition. And the motivation to change operators due to pricing is limited at the beginning of the year. But accordingly, we have not seen a deterioration on the retention front due to price adjustments.
However, we observed that aggressive campaigns started the second half of the year, and these aggressive campaigns started at the May timeframe and continued throughout the year, and then it still kind of kept going on. So due to the aggressive market environment, we experienced a slight increase in the mobile churn rate into Q4 2024 compared to the same quarter last year. Particularly on the prepaid side, we have started to observe the impact of the absence of a minimum wage increase in the second half of 2024, coupled with effects of intense competition, such as customers switching to lower tariffs and more competitive offers. Despite this, we managed to keep our mobile churn rate at around 2%, which is a good value, which we define as a healthy level thanks to our effective churn management action supported by our analytical models. And the second question is.
Kamil Kalyon (CFO)
Regarding the inflation expectations. Yes, as you mentioned, in January, the rate is a little bit over the expectations. But as we mentioned previously in the previous questions, as Turkcell, we estimated the inflation rate around 33% average for 2025, which is higher than the expectation of the central bank. Therefore, we do not foresee any risk about this issue. We are taking the necessary actions regarding, as Ali Taha mentioned, that regarding the pricing side, we are continuously chasing the market developments and competition developments, and we are making a smart pricing model. We have a smart pricing model. I think we do overcome this issue in 2025 also. Regarding the dividends, our dividend policy is the same as the management of the company. We are proposing our policy says that 50% of the net income can be distributable for the relevant year.
But since our AGM date is not clear yet, therefore we do not have any idea when the AGM meeting will be realized. Most probably, it would be in May or something like that. Therefore, our policy is the same, and AGM will decide how much the dividend distribution will be done in 2025.
Madhvendra Singh (Head of EEMEA Equity Research and Senior Analyst)
And thank you. If I can ask one more question on the salary hikes, if you could remind, because the inflation again has been going up, what is the plan around the salary hikes? I mean, how many rounds of salary hike we should expect this year and what magnitude?
Kamil Kalyon (CFO)
Normally, we made price increases in January in the mobile side. In the fixed side, we did not make any price adjustments because, unfortunately, the incumbent has not made price increases right now. As I said, we are keeping following them. But in January, we made price increases in the mobile side. We will be looking at the coming periods regarding the price hikes.
Ali Taha Koç (CEO)
Salary increase always per yearly, normally in Turkcell.
Madhvendra Singh (Head of EEMEA Equity Research and Senior Analyst)
Of which month do you do that? Sorry.
Ali Taha Koç (CEO)
Salary. You're talking about the salaries, right?
Madhvendra Singh (Head of EEMEA Equity Research and Senior Analyst)
Yes. Yes. Yes.
Ali Taha Koç (CEO)
Salary of the employees, right?
Madhvendra Singh (Head of EEMEA Equity Research and Senior Analyst)
Yes. Yes.
Ali Taha Koç (CEO)
This is just normally yearly per year, we have a salary increase.
Madhvendra Singh (Head of EEMEA Equity Research and Senior Analyst)
In which month do you implement that?
Ali Taha Koç (CEO)
Last year, because of the inflation, we did twice. First in January and first another one in June. But this year, in 2025, we're expecting yearly salary changes or increases yearly. One salary increase in 2025.
Madhvendra Singh (Head of EEMEA Equity Research and Senior Analyst)
In June, should we expect that?
Ali Taha Koç (CEO)
We are just following closely the inflation, and then currently, according to our plans, we didn't plan it, but we will definitely even last year, we didn't expect to do it, but we always follow up the competitive environment of the human resources. So we will find the best way to find the correct balance with the increase. But currently, for 2025, in our plans, we don't have any salary rise into June.
Madhvendra Singh (Head of EEMEA Equity Research and Senior Analyst)
Thank you. Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to Turkcell Management for any closing comments. Thank you.
Kamil Kalyon (CFO)
Thank you very much. Hope to see you in the next meeting.
Ali Taha Koç (CEO)
Thank you very much. Hope to see you.
Özlem Yardim (Investor Relations and Corporate Finance Director)
Hope to see you in first quarter. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone.Thank you for calling, and have a pleasant evening.