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    TKO Group Holdings Inc (TKO)

    Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Apr 14, 2025
    Pre-Earnings Price$145.47Last close (Mar 18, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$150.40Last close (Mar 20, 2025)
    Price Change
    $4.93(+3.39%)
    • Robust live event momentum: Executives highlighted record-breaking UFC and WWE events with strong ticket sales, rising site fees, and multi-event packages like the Kansas City TKO Takeover, indicating a resilient and growing live event revenue stream.
    • High-value media rights and distribution deals: The Q&A emphasized strategic partnerships with platforms like Netflix—which boost WWE Raw’s viewership—and an exclusive negotiation window with Disney/ESPN for UFC, signaling enhanced global exposure and strong media rights revenue potential.
    • Strategic acquisitions and diversified growth: The upcoming integration of IMG, On Location, and PBR, along with ongoing domestic and international expansion plans, positions TKO for long-term growth and a diversified revenue stream.
    • Timing-related revenue volatility: The earnings call highlighted short-term timing issues—such as the domestic rights deal for Raw and the Saudi event shift, which negatively impacted revenue and margins, potentially leading to continued uncertainty in future quarterly results.
    • Margin compression from event mix shifts: The strategic move toward hosting more international events, which carry a lower margin profile compared to high-margin Apex events, could pressure overall adjusted EBITDA margins despite revenue growth.
    • Integration and nonrecurring cost risks: The upcoming integration of acquisitions (IMG, On Location, and PBR) and associated nonrecurring expenses (including UFC antitrust settlement payments and refinancing costs) create execution risks that might impact free cash flow and overall financial performance.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    Down 5.9% (from $681.2M to $642.2M)

    The overall drop in Total Revenue is driven by a combination of a significant 31% decline in Media Rights and Content revenue and an 8.6% decrease in WWE revenue, which were only partly offset by an 82% surge in Live Events revenue. This mixed performance across segments underscores the shifts in revenue composition from Q3 to Q4.

    UFC Revenue

    Down ~3.1% (from $354.9M to $343.9M)

    The modest decline in UFC Revenue likely reflects slight adjustments in event scheduling or contractual factors affecting event-driven income, indicating that while UFC maintained strong performance overall, minor operational changes led to a drop compared to the previous quarter.

    Media Rights and Content Revenue

    Down 31% (from $227.4M to $156.3M)

    This dramatic decrease in Media Rights and Content Revenue suggests lower media rights fees and potential timing issues in content delivery or contractual escalations compared to Q3. The steep drop highlights how revenue opportunities from rights agreements can be volatile and sensitive to event and programming schedules.

    Live Events Revenue

    Up 82% (from $51.1M to $93.1M)

    The 82% increase in Live Events revenue is driven by a strategic focus on boosting ticket sales through premium events and enhanced site fees, capitalizing on strong market demand despite any other segment declines. This performance indicates a robust recovery or repositioning in the live events segment.

    WWE Revenue

    Down 8.6% (from $326.3M to $298.3M)

    The 8.6% drop in WWE revenue is attributable to timing impacts and weaker performance in key revenue streams such as media rights and live events, reflecting the challenges WWE faced post-merger in sustaining its previously higher revenue levels.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Revenue

    FY 2025

    $2.67B to $2.745B

    $2.93B to $3.0B

    raised

    Adjusted EBITDA

    FY 2025

    $1.22B to $1.24B

    $1.35B to $1.39B

    raised

    Free Cash Flow Conversion

    FY 2025

    in excess of 40%

    in excess of 60%

    raised

    Sponsorship Revenue

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $375M

    no prior guidance

    Incremental Margins

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    150 to 200 basis points

    no prior guidance

    Site Fees

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Anticipated meaningful growth

    no prior guidance

    Event Mix

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Fewer Apex events and higher number of international events

    no prior guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Consistent Live Events Performance

    In Q1–Q3 calls, strong record‐setting events were emphasized – from WrestleMania 40 and UFC 300 in Q1 to record attendance figures and breakthrough events in Q2–Q3 (e.g. UFC 306 at Sphere).

    Q4 reiterated record‐breaking ticket sales, attendance, and revenue highs for both UFC and WWE, though it also mentioned emerging timing risks affecting revenue recognition.

    Consistent positive performance continues but is now paired with increased focus on timing risks.

    Emerging Scheduling and Event Timing Risks

    Q2 and Q3 discussed fewer events and timing differences—in Q3 a reduction in total UFC events led to lower media rights revenue, and Q1 mentioned quarterly fluctuations.

    Q4 explicitly highlighted timing uncertainties, such as shifting Saudi Arabia events (leading to roughly a $55M revenue impact) and fewer profitable Apex events.

    Increased emphasis in Q4 on timing issues that now significantly affect revenue volatility.

    Evolving Media Rights and Distribution Partnerships

    Across Q1–Q3, discussions focused on media rights renewals, short‐term deals (e.g., USA Network for Raw), and the emerging potential of the Netflix partnership and UFC/ESPN negotiations.

    Q4 detailed the successful launch of WWE Raw on Netflix, continuing negotiations with Disney/ESPN for UFC, and explained transitional timing impacts on media rights revenue.

    A continued expansion in digital and international media partnerships, with transitional impacts now explicitly acknowledged.

    Strategic Acquisitions and Integration Synergies versus Execution Challenges

    Q1 noted a MotoGP acquisition attempt and projected cost/revenue synergies; Q2 and Q3 emphasized disciplined M&A and the achievement of cost savings and integration synergies from UFC and WWE.

    Q4 outlined the imminent closures of key acquisitions (IMG, On Location, PBR) and reinforced integration synergies while also highlighting execution challenges—such as timing‐related revenue impacts and margin trade-offs from international events.

    Ongoing integration efforts with M&A activity remain central, though Q4 underscores increasing complexity and execution challenges.

    Operational Efficiency, Free Cash Flow Generation, and Margin Dynamics

    In Q1, strong free cash flow conversion, improved adjusted EBITDA margins, and integration-related cost synergies were noted. Q2–Q3 added details on cost reductions and pressures from higher production costs (e.g. for UFC events).

    Q4 reported robust free cash flow generation and margin improvements overall, while also noting pressures from higher production costs and lower-margin profiles in international events.

    Solid operational efficiency and cash flow persist, but Q4 reveals accentuated margin pressures due to evolving production complexities.

    Global Expansion and Diversified Revenue Streams

    Q1–Q3 highlighted international growth through events in markets such as Mexico City, Perth, and notable digital initiatives with NFT/Netflix engagements, along with increased site fee and sponsorship revenue.

    Q4 deepened this narrative with plans for additional international events (e.g. “Road to WrestleMania” in Western Europe, Royal Rumble in Riyadh) and reinforced transformative digital deals like the Netflix launch to widen global reach.

    A sustained and even accelerated drive for global expansion and revenue diversification via international events and digital platforms.

    Event Scheduling and Timing Uncertainties Impacting Revenue Volatility

    Q1 minimally touched on quarterly timing fluctuations, while Q2 and Q3 delved into reduced event counts affecting media rights and live event revenues.

    Q4 provided detailed insights on how specific scheduling shifts (such as altered Saudi Arabia event counts and fewer Apex events) are causing notable revenue volatility.

    There is an increased transparency and focus in Q4 on how precise event scheduling directly drives revenue fluctuations.

    Legal Settlements and Financial Leverage Risks with Potential Long‐Term Effects

    Q1 detailed the UFC antitrust settlement (totaling $335M paid in installments) alongside discussions of debt levels and free cash flow adjustments. Q2 and Q3 further discussed litigation settlement charges and refinancing activities as part of managing leverage.

    Q4 detailed the impact of settlement payments (including the first installment for the UFC case) and the results of a significant refinancing that reduced interest expenses but introduced transaction costs, reinforcing existing high leverage levels.

    Legal settlements and leverage concerns remain a consistent focus, with Q4 offering more granularity on refinancing benefits and the ongoing cash flow impact.

    1. UFC Deals
      Q: Status of Disney/ESPN negotiations?
      A: Management is in an exclusive 90‑day window with Disney/ESPN, emphasizing premium content value and expecting favorable, flexible terms for long‑term monetization.

    2. Margin Outlook
      Q: How are 2025 margins evolving?
      A: Management anticipates incremental margin accretion of 150–200 basis points after normalizing for the Saudi timing shift, with no undue expense pressures, ensuring robust margins.

    3. Live Event Growth
      Q: What drives live event revenue growth?
      A: Despite timing shifts like the Saudi event, revenue is expected to grow meaningfully, driven by increasing site fee contributions and marquee events such as WrestleMania and Summer Slam.

    4. Sponsorship Revenue
      Q: What is the sponsorship revenue outlook?
      A: The team is targeting $375 million in sponsorships, buoyed by strong new partnerships and renewals, which underlines robust momentum across their portfolio.

    5. Boxing Expansion
      Q: Impact of Ali Act repeal on boxing?
      A: While not actively lobbying, management sees significant boxing opportunities, including a deal with the Saudis offering a $10 million fee and potential earn‑in equity, making it an attractive, value‑accretive play.

    6. International Events
      Q: Are international UFC events EBITDA accretive?
      A: Management confirmed that although international events have lower margins than Apex, they are EBITDA accretive on an absolute dollar basis, supporting long‑term global growth.

    7. Takeover Economics
      Q: How do multi‑event takeovers add value?
      A: The Kansas City TKO Takeover, with layered site fees and significant sponsorship elements, demonstrates a scalable model that enhances overall economic impact and market presence.

    8. Media Rights Timing
      Q: How is timing affecting media revenues?
      A: Timing-related headwinds in WWE and UFC media rights are viewed as temporary, with contract deliveries and Netflix deals expected to normalize revenue recognition over the coming quarters.