Tilly’s - Earnings Call - Q4 2025

Executive Summary

• Q4 FY2024 (ended Feb 1, 2025) was weak: net sales $147.3M (-14.9% YoY; comps -11.2% on a comparable 13-week basis) and diluted EPS of -$0.45; product margins improved by 190 bps but were outweighed by deleverage and inventory valuation reserves.
• Management made merchandising leadership changes and is targeting a reset by mid-year; early Q1 (fiscal February) comps were -5.7% with positive store comps for four days during a warm spell, underpinning cautious optimism for Spring assortments.
• Q1 FY2025 guidance implies continued losses: net sales $105–$111M, comps -8% to -3%, SG&A $42–$43M, EPS -$0.68 to -$0.58, near-zero tax rate; expects 238 stores and $25–$30M cash/marketable securities at quarter-end, no ABL usage.
• Street estimates: S&P Global consensus data were unavailable at the time of this analysis due to an API rate limit; thus beat/miss vs consensus cannot be assessed. If consensus previously anticipated better Q1 sales/losses, models likely need to come down (see Guidance) [GetEstimates error: Daily Request Limit Exceeded].

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Product margins expanded by 190 bps YoY in Q4, driven by improved initial markups despite higher inventory reserves.
  • Expense control plans are underway for FY2025: targeted payroll discipline despite minimum wage increases, renegotiated contracts, and lease decision rigor; management expects SG&A dollars to be down YoY if sales turn up.
  • Cash/liquidity preserved: $46.7M cash and marketable securities and $48.0M undrawn ABL at FY-end; company believes it can operate without drawing ABL in FY2025 at current comp trend.

• What Went Wrong

  • Top-line deterioration: total comps -11.2% for Q4; e-com net sales -17.8% (-14.8% comps) and store comps -9.8%; November was notably weak (-21% comps), with December/January -6% to -7%.
  • Deleverage: buying, distribution and occupancy costs deleveraged 290 bps despite being $1.5M lower YoY due to lower sales; SG&A mix remained elevated at 35.6% of sales.
  • Continued losses: operating margin -9.6% (vs -4.9% LY); net loss -$13.7M (vs -$20.6M LY, which included a tax valuation allowance impact); FY net loss widened to -$46.2M.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good day, and Welcome to the Tillys' fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on a touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star and then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Gar Jackson, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Gar Jackson (Founder and President)

Good afternoon, and Welcome to the Tillys' fiscal 2024 fourth quarter earnings call. Michael Henry, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, will discuss the company's business and operating results. Then he and Hezy Shaked, Co-Founder, Executive Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, will host a Q&A session. For a copy of Tillys' earnings press release, please visit the Investor Relations section of the company's website, at tillys.com. From the same section, shortly after the conclusion of the call, you will also be able to find a recorded replay of this call for the next 30 days. Certain forward-looking statements will be made during this call that reflect Tillys' judgment and analysis only as of today, March 12, 2025, and actual results may differ materially from current expectations based on various factors affecting Tillys' business. Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements.

For a more thorough discussion of the risks and uncertainties associated with any forward-looking statements, please see the disclaimer regarding forward-looking statements that is included in our fiscal 2024 fourth quarter earnings release, which is furnished to the SEC today on Form 8-K, as well as our other filings with the SEC referenced in that disclaimer. Today's call will be limited to one hour and will include a Q&A session after our prepared remarks. I will now turn the call over to Mike.

Michael Henry (EVP and CFO)

Thank you, Gar, and to everyone on the call for joining us today. The fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 was disappointing, particularly following what was our best comp sales performance since 2021 during the third quarter. We made several organizational changes in our merchandising team during the fourth quarter with the goal of beginning to stabilize and then turning our sales trajectory around. We believe in our merchandising team's abilities. Merchandising has not been easy when many of our best traditional brand partners have been facing their own significant operating challenges. We are adapting our brand and assortment mixes to attempt to improve sales, and changes will continue as we progress through fiscal 2025. We believe our spring assortment is on trend based on the brief period of positive comps we saw in stores when weather turned warmer.

We have planned meaningfully reduced inventory commitments throughout fiscal 2025 compared to fiscal 2024 to target faster turns and further improvement in product margins. We have reassessed inventory needs by product category and set targets that aim to move us back toward historical norms that this company has been able to produce repeatedly in its past. Beyond merchandising adjustments, we've targeted significant expense reductions during fiscal 2025 from the combination of continued diligent scrutiny of every store lease decision, strict management of store distribution and corporate payroll, and negotiated reductions in contractual commitments across operational departments with the support of many of our business partners. At the same time, we plan to continue investing in our business in terms of expanded marketing efforts, carefully selected new store opportunities, and pursuit of operating efficiencies, all with the goal of improving our performance.

Now I will turn to the specifics of our fiscal 2024 fourth quarter operating performance compared to fiscal 2023's fourth quarter before sharing our fiscal 2025 first quarter outlook. Total net sales of $147.3 million decreased by 14.9% compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023. Last year's fourth quarter contained an extra week, which accounted for $5.7 million in total net sales. Total comparable net sales, including both physical stores and e-commerce, for the comparable 13-week period ended February 1, 2025, decreased by 11.2%. Total net sales from physical stores decreased by 13.7% and represented 73.5% of our total net sales compared to 72.6% of our total net sales last year. On a comparable 13-week basis, net sales from physical stores decreased by 9.8%. E-commerce net sales decreased by 17.8% and represented 26.5% of total net sales compared to 27.4% of total net sales last year.

We ended the fiscal year with 240 total stores and a net decrease of eight stores compared to the end of fiscal 2023 after having closed 10 stores during the fourth quarter. Gross margin, including buying, distribution, and occupancy expenses, was 26% of net sales compared to 27% of net sales last year. Despite our sales miss and significantly increased inventory valuation reserves, product margin still improved by 190 basis points compared to last year, primarily due to higher initial markups. Buying, distribution, and occupancy costs deleveraged by 290 basis points collectively, despite being $1.5 million below last year due to carrying these costs against lower net sales. Total SG&A expenses were $52.4 million, or 35.6% of net sales, compared to $55.2 million, or 31.9% of net sales last year.

The decrease in SG&A was primarily due to the extra week in last year's fourth quarter, which added an estimated $2.6 million to last year's SG&A. Pre-tax loss was $13.4 million, or 9.1% of net sales, compared to $6.9 million, or 4% of net sales last year, as a result of the combination of factors just noted. Income tax expense was $0.2 million, despite our pre-tax loss position, due to the continuing impact of a full non-cash deferred tax asset valuation allowance. Last year's fourth quarter included the original non-cash deferred tax asset valuation allowance charge of $15.4 million, resulting in income tax expense of $13.6 million, despite our pre-tax loss position. Net loss was $13.7 million, or 45 cents per share, compared to $20.6 million, or 69 cents per share during last year's fourth quarter, which included the previously mentioned valuation allowance charge.

Turning to our balance sheet, we ended the fiscal year with total cash and marketable securities of $47 million and available undrawn borrowing capacity of $48 million under our asset-backed credit facility. Total inventories were 9.5% higher than at the end of fiscal 2023. However, as of March 1, 2025, total inventories were 6.1% below last year's level as of the comparable date due to specific actions taken to address this issue. Total capital expenditures in fiscal 2024 were $8.2 million, compared to $14 million in fiscal 2023. Turning to the first quarter of fiscal 2025, the trend of our business has improved from our fourth quarter performance, with total comparable net sales for fiscal February ended March 1, 2025, decreasing by 5.7% relative to the comparable period of last year and with stronger performance when the weather has turned warmer.

As a result, and based on current historical trends, we currently estimate that our total net sales for the first quarter will be in the range of approximately $105 million-$111 million, translating to a comparable store net sales decrease in the range of approximately 8%-3%, respectively, compared to last year. We expect our SG&A expenses to be approximately $42 million-$43 million in the absence of any non-cash asset impairment charges which may arise, and our pre-tax loss to be in the range of $20 million-$17 million, respectively. Our estimated loss per share is expected to be in the range of $0.68-$0.58 for the first quarter, with a near-zero income tax rate due to the continuing impact of the previously noted valuation allowance on deferred tax assets.

We currently expect to have 238 total stores operating at the end of the first quarter, compared to 246 at the end of last year's first quarter. As our cash naturally ebbs and flows with the cadence of the fiscal year, we expect to end the first quarter with total cash and marketable securities of approximately $25 million-$30 million before it moves back higher at the end of the second quarter amid the early stages of the back-to-school season. At our fiscal February comparable net sales trend, we believe we can operate without accessing our credit facility at any time during fiscal 2025. We expect to operate with lower unit inventories than last year throughout fiscal 2025, as I noted earlier. Additionally, we expect to finalize an extension of our asset-backed credit facility with Wells Fargo Bank through July 2028 before the end of the first quarter.

In closing, our goals for fiscal 2025 are to deliver improved sales and inventory efficiency with reduced expenses. It may prove difficult to achieve amid current economic concerns, but we believe we have the plans and teams in place that can deliver results. We look forward to sharing our progress with you as we go through the year. Operator, we'll now go to our Q&A session.

Operator (participant)

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touch-tone phone. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star and then two. Our first question comes from Jeff Van Sinderen with B. Riley Securities. Please go ahead.

Jeff Van Sinderen (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Thanks for taking my question. I guess the first one I had was just around tariff impact or potential tariff impact. Maybe you can just lay out for us. I know you do have some private label product, but I do not think there is a tariff impact on that. Can you just refresh our memories around potential tariff impact?

Michael Henry (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, Jeff.

Hezy Shaked (Co-Founder, Executive Chairman, President, and CEO)

Let me take it.

Michael Henry (EVP and CFO)

Go ahead, Hezy.

Hezy Shaked (Co-Founder, Executive Chairman, President, and CEO)

Let me take it. This is Hezy. We looked into it, by the way, Monday, and it will be a minor effect. Very few of the vendors we're using for private label, actually, it's only one at this stage, indicated that they might have to split the increased cost with us. It's not significant with this particular vendor, but this is the information we have as of right now. I expect it will have some effect. It's hard to quantify at this stage.

Jeff Van Sinderen (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. As you're sort of thinking about the macro backdrop that we're in and the potential impact to the consumer overall, the recession word is sort of being talked about, I guess, how are you thinking about that? Do you feel like the changes you're making to the merchandise assortment can offset that? I guess just any thoughts around that.

Hezy Shaked (Co-Founder, Executive Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yeah. Yeah. That is the hope, right? I mean, the headwinds we're going to have, like everybody else does, will be there. The hope is that by the time we get our merchandising, everything in line, we should be able to mitigate that, but there's no guarantee.

Jeff Van Sinderen (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah. Okay. I just kind of have a more strategic or structural question for you. I'm just kind of looking at your cash balance and CapEx. How are you thinking about store openings this year? Are you planning to open any, or are we in more of closure mode at this point? What should we anticipate for CapEx this year? I also wanted to ask you, and this is something that has been done a little bit more, but I apologize for the multi-part question here, on e-commerce, I just wonder if it might make sense for you to fulfill e-commerce out of your stores and not have a separate e-commerce fulfillment center.

Hezy Shaked (Co-Founder, Executive Chairman, President, and CEO)

Sure. I will start from the last one. We do do a hybrid. We fill from the stores as well as we do from e-com. In the event that we do not have it at the e-com building, it comes from the closest store to the customer. At this stage, it is not something we are considering doing complete shipping from the stores. On your first question on the CapEx, we are still opportunists. Any situation that we believe the ROI is going to be short, we will capitalize on that. We did open two stores recently, and they are both very profitable. I think we will see great results from those two. We do have a kind of a place marker for additional stores in case we find the right location that makes sense.

Overall, I think my goal will be to probably close more unprofitable stores than open new ones.

Michael Henry (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, Jeff, I'll add some details to that. One store opened already about just last week, actually. There's a second one that's planned to open in August currently. We know of seven store closures that will take place as of now, three in the first quarter and four in the second quarter. That's what we know as of this moment. As Hezy referenced, the placeholder that we have in our budget is just five stores. It's a limited number. As he noted, we'll be very opportunistic about that. It doesn't mean we're going to open five. We only have two as we have right now. We have seven closures. There could be more closures as we go through the year and work through all of our lease decisions, but that's the latest information we have as of today.

Jeff Van Sinderen (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Sorry, Mike, on that, how many lease decisions do you have this year?

Michael Henry (EVP and CFO)

Just like every other recent year, we've been renegotiating leases for several years. As we do these things, they tend to go one to two to three years at a time. Every year, there's roughly about 80 lease decisions to make, it seems. That's right in the neighborhood of how many we'll have to deal with this year.

Jeff Van Sinderen (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Fair enough. Thanks for taking my questions. I'll let someone else jump in.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Matt Koranda with ROTH Capital. Please go ahead.

Matt Koranda (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Hey, guys. Just backing up to the fourth quarter results and the comp, just wanted to see sort of if you could maybe just give a little commentary on the down 11% comp for the fourth quarter. It's a little below the range you gave, and just wanted to see kind of what might have fallen short kind of later in the quarter.

Hezy Shaked (Co-Founder, Executive Chairman, President, and CEO)

Go ahead.

Michael Henry (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, we started off really.

Go ahead, Hezy.

Hezy Shaked (Co-Founder, Executive Chairman, President, and CEO)

No, no, you can take that.

Michael Henry (EVP and CFO)

Okay. Obviously, when we released Q3 earnings and gave our outlook, we acknowledged what our comps were through the early stage of the quarter. November was the weakest month of the quarter by far. We were down 21% in fiscal November, and then we were down 6%-7% in each of December and January, just to give you the cadence of the quarter.

Matt Koranda (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. All right. Gotcha. Just in terms of the trends quarter to date, I know the release says sort of -6% roughly in terms of comp in February. We're expecting -8%-3%. Maybe just can you talk about the sensitivities in the range in terms of what brings us to the bottom and the top end of that range? Just any way you can unpack sort of any of the trends at all that you saw in February. I know a lot have been kind of calling out some softness in the month of February progressively as we went through the month, just wanted to see if you could note any kind of changes that you were seeing in your business.

Michael Henry (EVP and CFO)

Sure. In fiscal February, week three was the softest of the month, and in week four is when we got a nice little heat wave, especially here in California. I noted in our prepared remarks that we did see positive comps in our stores. That was a four-day period when we had really nice seasonal weather and saw a pretty significant change in the trajectory of our business, with a lot of parts of our spring assortment really popping during that period. In the aggregate, fiscal February finished at -5.7%, and that was inclusive of that short window of time where we saw positive comps in our stores.

Gives us some cautious optimism that as we get into better, more warmer weather, as we get deeper into the quarter, that our assortment seems to be on trend and we should see some response from it as we get into more spring seasonal weather. We do have a later Easter this year, so it is going to get a little worse before it gets better because of the shift out of Easter. Easter was March 31 last year versus April 20 this year. Our outlook range kind of encapsulates right where we are. The cautious optimism I mentioned of seeing some warmer weather and better performance can lead us towards the upper end. Nothing really got better than what we're anticipating.

Knowing that things are going to get tougher in March because of the later Easter, the typical Easter shift that happens every year one way or the other, that could lead us towards the bottom end. 2022 was the last fiscal year where Easter is in the precise location that it is this year. That is what we are using to model kind of how the cadence of the quarter goes.

Matt Koranda (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. All right. Very helpful, Mike. Thanks. Maybe just for Hezy, can you just talk higher level about sort of what ending we are in in terms of the merchandising and assortment change? When will the new team sort of fully have their fingerprints on all products that are in the stores? Maybe just level set everybody on sort of when we should expect that productivity to come into play.

Hezy Shaked (Co-Founder, Executive Chairman, President, and CEO)

Sure. Absolutely. Yeah, absolutely. Let me take you back a little bit. By the way, as you know, we missed the merchandise for Christmas, fourth quarter. That was the reason I changed the top merchant. We realigned the merchant team. We have a lot of good talent there, but the direction was wrong. I think by July, we should see the results of the merchant team effort. I also got to remind you what happened here is we had to mark down a lot of the merchandise because it was just the wrong direction. Due to that, that affects everything, including your comps, because you're comping dollars. We are going to dismerchandise. We're clearing it. As you can see, our inventory is down, and we expect to clear all that by the same time. We should see some results in July.

Matt Koranda (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. That makes sense. Appreciate that, Hezy. Maybe just last one for Mike. Could you just comment on what's embedded in the cash balance guide at the end of the quarter in terms of inventory? Are we assuming that the inventory balance is down year-over-year at the end of the quarter? Maybe just talk about sort of where you see inventory normalizing. I guess the other kind of higher-level question on the balance sheet is just like, what would cause you to tap the credit facility? At what point would we see you drawing on that, if and when?

Michael Henry (EVP and CFO)

Sure. As I noted in our prepared remarks, we're planning to operate with lower unit inventories all year long. We took a really hard look at our inventory needs by product category, being a lot more strict about how we're viewing that. We've simply been buying too much in recent years. I worked real hard with the teams to realign our inventory plans kind of from a bottoms-up perspective by product category and feel confident that we have a good plan in place to have inventory very well managed as we go throughout the year. We should be below last year's levels all year long at the end of each quarter. That has been planned into our merch plan budget for the year.

As long as we don't have something approaching about a -10% comp consistently all year long, we should not have to access our credit facility. As I mentioned, based on our February comp run rate of -5.7%, we could run that all year long, and we would not have to touch our credit facility at all. We have a borrowing-free balance sheet. As long as we don't have a deterioration in our comp trend from where we are and closer to about that -10% level, we shouldn't have to access our credit facility at any point in time.

Matt Koranda (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. Super clear. Appreciate it, guys. I'll leave it there.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Jeff Van Sinderen with B. Riley Securities. Please go ahead.

Jeff Van Sinderen (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Just wanted to sort of follow up around the thinking on the credit line and the cash balance and just wondering if there are other areas you feel you can reduce SG&A given kind of the run rate of the business.

Michael Henry (EVP and CFO)

We have. That was in our prepared remarks as well. We have renegotiated a lot of contractual commitments with the assistance of several of our business partners. We had to absorb another year of minimum wage increases that for the first quarter, with all things being equal, cost us about $400,000. With another swing at trying to be super tight on our payroll metrics, we actually expect our payroll dollars to be down in the first quarter despite that minimum wage increase. Hezy and I ran every single department head over the coals with their departmental budgets. We have looked at literally everything. We expect to see some favorability as we go through our lease decisions.

We expect to see some favorability out of payroll in all facets, as I mentioned, whether it's store payroll, distribution, or corporate office because of the changes we've made and plans we have in place. We have looked at every major contractual commitment that we have, looking for anywhere that we can squeeze expense and those things are factored in and also have an impact on our ability to manage our way through the year without accessing our credit facility because of it.

Jeff Van Sinderen (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Would it be fair to say, Mike, that if your business starts to turn up, which you sound cautiously optimistic that it can, and hopefully around the summertime, it will, and let's just if we assume for a second that you are comping positive in third quarter, let's say, or second quarter, would it be fair to think that with the reductions you've made so far that the SG&A dollars can be down year-over-year? I just want to kind of clarify the thinking on that.

Michael Henry (EVP and CFO)

That would be our expectation, yes, that we could manage through this year with a lower total dollar value of SG&A than what we had in 2024.

Jeff Van Sinderen (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Great to hear. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mike Henry for any closing remarks.

Michael Henry (EVP and CFO)

Thank you all for joining us on the call today, and we look forward to sharing our results with you as we go through the year. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.