Q2 2024 Earnings Summary
- T-Mobile achieved 777,000 postpaid phone net additions in Q2 2024, marking the highest Q2 ever in the company's history, with growth across both rural and urban markets.
- The company continues to lead in network performance, sweeping every category for overall network performance in the latest Opensignal and Ookla tests, contributing to high customer satisfaction and low churn rates.
- T-Mobile is executing significant capital returns, with almost 150 million shares already repurchased and plans to deliver up to $8.7 billion in shareholder returns, including dividends, for the year, demonstrating strong financial performance and commitment to shareholder value.
- Limited Fiber Investment and Convergence Strategy: T-Mobile's cautious approach to fiber deployment and its limited appetite for further fiber transactions may hinder its competitiveness in the long term, especially as competitors expand their fiber footprints and leverage convergence to gain market share.
- Negative Financial Impact from ACP Roll-Off: The anticipated impact of the Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP) roll-off is expected to negatively affect T-Mobile's financial performance by $350 million to $450 million, with the majority occurring in the second half of 2024, particularly in Q4. This could lead to lower service revenues and EBITDA.
- Uncertainty in Predicting Industry Trends: T-Mobile acknowledges difficulty in predicting industry trends, including upgrade cycles and switching activity, which introduces uncertainty in their financial guidance and may impact their ability to meet growth and profitability targets.
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Fiber Strategy
Q: Will T-Mobile pursue more fiber deals like Lumos and Metronet?
A: We have limited appetite for further transactions in this space. While we are open-minded to the right opportunities, we're not currently working on another deal like this. The acquisitions of Lumos, which will pass 3.5 million homes by 2028 , and Metronet, which will pass 6.5 million homes by 2030 , give us a significant footprint. Our focus is on pure-play fiber with best-in-class assets, and we believe these deals are smart and positive for our shareholders. -
Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns
Q: Is T-Mobile still aiming for up to $60 billion in shareholder returns by 2026?
A: Yes, our multiyear capital allocation plan remains on track. We've already repurchased almost 150 million shares and will issue our fourth dividend by the end of this year. While exact timing is hard to predict, we anticipate reaching our up to $60 billion shareholder return target by mid-2026. We're balancing investments in the core business and value-accretive opportunities like spectrum purchases and acquisitions, all while maintaining our shareholder return commitments. -
Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP) Impact
Q: How will the wind-down of the ACP affect T-Mobile's financials?
A: The ACP wind-down will have a $350 million to $450 million impact , with the majority occurring in the second half of the year, especially in Q4. This primarily affects our wholesale and other service revenues. We didn't participate in ACP through our postpaid brand and had only a small number of customers through Metro; most ACP customers were served through our Assurance brand and wholesale partners. -
Postpaid Phone Net Additions
Q: What's driving the strength in postpaid phone net adds, and where are they coming from?
A: We achieved 777,000 postpaid phone net additions in Q2, our highest Q2 ever. Growth is strong across both smaller markets and rural areas—which represent 40% of the U.S. population —and top 100 markets. In rural areas, we experienced the highest switching ever this quarter due to network and distribution expansion. We're attracting prime customers seeking a better network experience, leveraging our best-in-class 5G network and Ultra Capacity capabilities. -
Enterprise and Business Growth
Q: How has recent success in enterprise contributed to T-Mobile's growth?
A: We outpaced our benchmark competitor in overall phone net additions and churn in the business segment. In SMB, we had our best quarter ever in postpaid phone net adds, up almost 20% year-over-year. Our enterprise win share continues to exceed our overall share. Customers choose us for our best-in-class network and competitive pricing. For instance, the largest oil and gas company in the U.S. selected us for Advanced Network Solutions and mobile services for their workforce. -
Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) Penetration
Q: What's the penetration of mobile wireless subscribers within your FWA broadband base?
A: We've reached 5.6 million homes with our broadband product. The majority of these customers are existing T-Mobile mobile subscribers. The rest represent a "land-and-expand" strategy, where customers start with our broadband and then have the opportunity to add mobile services. Our FWA product has industry-leading satisfaction rates, outperforming even fiber and being 3× higher than cable, with the satisfaction gap widening. -
Pricing Strategy and Sustainability
Q: How sustainable is your current pricing strategy, and will you consider additional pricing actions?
A: Our longstanding strategy focuses on being the value leader, and we have no interest in changing that. We provide a value proposition that customers trust, leading to industry-leading service revenue growth. While we've made changes this year for the first time in a decade to keep up with the times, we remain committed to offering the best value in the marketplace. Our average revenue per account grew at well over 2% , reflecting healthy growth. -
Convergence and Fiber Strategy
Q: Do you need a broader converged offer or coverage beyond current fiber deals?
A: We believe our mobile business stands strong on its own, and convergence is not necessary to compete effectively. While some customers prefer bundles and we offer them, we have zero evidence that a converged offer is required to succeed in mobile. We're open-minded over the long haul but will make decisions carefully. Our current fiber transactions provide a significant footprint, and we aim to execute them well before considering further expansion. -
Impact of iPhone Cycle and AI
Q: How will the upcoming iPhone cycle, especially with AI features, affect your business?
A: We're excited about the potential of new iPhones with AI capabilities. While we've benefited from low upgrade rates recently, an increase due to a compelling new device would be a share-taking opportunity for us. Our business plan is designed to be responsive to market dynamics, and whether upgrade rates remain low or surge, we are well-positioned to benefit. -
Continued Fiber Investment
Q: Is there a reason to believe you need larger capital-light fiber transactions?
A: Our appetite for further fiber transactions is limited. We're satisfied with the material footprint from our current deals with Lumos and Metronet and are not working on additional deals like these currently. While we're open to the right opportunities, any further investment would have to align perfectly with our strategy and objectives. We value our pure-play model and aim to maintain our focus on execution without significantly changing our company's complexion.
Research analysts covering T-Mobile US.