Tandem Diabetes Care - Earnings Call - Q3 2025

Executive Summary

• Record Q3 sales and margin expansion with reaffirmed FY25 outlook: revenue $249.3M (+2% YoY; +3.6% QoQ), GAAP gross margin 54% (+300 bps YoY; +200 bps QoQ), and positive adjusted EBITDA; full-year ~$1.0B sales, GM 53–54%, and -5% adj. EBITDA margin maintained.
• Clear beat vs Street on revenue and EPS; Revenue $249.3M vs $235.8M consensus; EPS -$0.31 vs -$0.34; SPGI “EBITDA” missed (SPGI actual -$18.4M vs +$5.6M consensus) while company adj. EBITDA was +$2.8M, highlighting definitional differences between SPGI EBITDA and company adjusted EBITDA (values from S&P Global)*.
• Pharmacy channel traction accelerating (Mobi coverage >40% of U.S. lives; pharmacy ~5% of U.S. sales in Q3) and t:slim supplies launched through pharmacy in September; Q4 gross margin expected to be an all-time high in the mid-to-high 50s, with a path to ~60% GM in Q4’26.
• 2026 catalysts: Android mobile control 510(k) filed; broader Libre 3 Plus integration rolling out; Mobi Tubeless prioritized with seven-day extended wear and 2026 launch target. Near-term stock drivers include pharmacy adoption, Q4 gross margin realization, and visibility on 2026 product cadence.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Record Q3 sales both U.S. and international; GM up to 54% on higher ASPs, channel mix, and Mobi cost scaling; adjusted EBITDA positive.
  • Pharmacy access and execution: Mobi pharmacy coverage >40% of U.S. lives; launched t:slim supplies in pharmacy in Sept; pharmacy ~5% of U.S. sales in Q3 with early uptake “encouraging”.
  • Strategic/product momentum: Libre 3 Plus integration launched in U.S.; Android control for Mobi 510(k) filed; seven-day Mobi Tubeless prioritized for 2026.

• What Went Wrong

  • U.S. pump revenue down 2% YoY as new pump starts remained pressured; renewals >50% of shipments, with competitor retention cited as a headwind for competitive conversions.
  • Operating loss persists (-$22.9M) despite margin gains; SPGI-standardized EBITDA missed consensus (SPGI actual -$18.4M vs +$5.6M), although company adj. EBITDA was +$2.8M (values from S&P Global)*.
  • Safety/recall overhang: Aug voluntary device correction (Malfunction 16) for select t:slim X2 pumps (700 confirmed adverse events; 59 injuries; no deaths), a potential reputational/operational risk.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Today, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Tandem Diabetes Care third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Susan Morrison, Executive Vice President and Chief Administrative Officer. Please go ahead.

Susan Morrison (EVP and Chief Administrative Officer)

Hello everyone, and welcome to Tandem's third quarter 2025 earnings call. Today's discussion will include forward-looking statements. These statements reflect management's expectations about future events, our product pipeline, development timelines, and financial performance and operating plans, and speak only as of today's date. There are risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated or projected in our forward-looking statements, which are described in our press release issued earlier today and under the risk factors portion of our most recent quarterly report on Form 10-Q. Today's discussion will also include references to both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings release issued earlier today and available on the Investor Center portion of our website for a reconciliation of these measures to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other information regarding our use of non-GAAP financial measures.

John Sheridan, Tandem's President and CEO, will be leading today's call, and he'll be joined by Leigh Vosseller, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Following their prepared remarks, the operator will open up the call for questions. Thanks in advance for limiting yourself to one question before getting back into the queue. I'll now turn the call over to John.

John Sheridan (President and CEO)

Thank you, Susan. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our call today. In the third quarter, we achieved significant strategic milestones and delivered record Q3 sales. This year has represented a period of transformation for Tandem, and we are doing the right thing to position our company for success. Our substantial progress is starting to become evident in our financial results and serves as a testament to our strategic vision, hard work, and the collective dedication of our entire team. There are three primary initiatives that we've been prioritizing to evolve our business, which will be the focus of my prepared remarks today. These include modernization of our commercial operations, driving innovation, and reshaping our business model. In the U.S., we are beginning to see measurable benefits from our commercial changes implemented throughout the year.

We have redefined end-to-end processes, begun deploying new technology platforms, and restructured the organization to deepen our capabilities and to improve efficiencies. As a result, we're beginning to see improved sales productivity and effectiveness and plan to build on this momentum in the coming quarter and years. Pump shipments for Q3 met our expectations with favorable underlying sales trends, and September was our strongest month of the quarter. About 2/3 of our new customers continued to adopt our technology from multiple daily injections. We also continue to see a healthy mix of both t:slim and Mobi adoption, highlighting the value of our portfolio approach in the highly segmented market. Outside of the U.S., our commercial transformation is focused on preparing for direct operations in Europe. We have executed well against our transition plans, and I've been impressed with the high caliber experienced people joining us.

Our direct sales initiatives will begin in the U.K., Switzerland, and Austria in early 2026, with additional countries to follow later in the year. In some locations, we've already started to hire our sales reps. Many of these individuals currently sell our technology through a distributor, which helps support a smooth transition. Establishing direct international operations is a critical step to strengthen our financial position by accelerating sales growth and driving margin expansion. It's also an opportunity to deepen our relationships with the European diabetes community and bring the benefits of Tandem's incredible technology to more people living with diabetes worldwide. Our second business initiative is focused on driving innovation. We have several recent and upcoming launches, which deliver on our portfolio promise of expanding choice. For example, the potential for Mobi is still not fully unlocked.

We are awaiting FDA clearance for our Mobi Control app for Android, which is currently only available in iOS. Adding Android capability is an exciting opportunity as it significantly expands the worldwide addressable market. In addition, last week, we announced that t:slim X2 is now fully available with Abbott's FreeStyle Libre 3+ integration in the U.S., marking the first step in a broader global rollout. This integration has been in the early access phase of launch in the U.S. over the past several months, with positive user feedback. We're excited to offer integration with Abbott's latest generation sensor, as it provides even more CGM users access to the life-changing benefits of our Control-IQ+ algorithm. We are expanding the international rollout of our source cloud infrastructure, which supports both the expansion of Mobi outside the United States and enables iOS and Android mobile app applications for t:slim X2.

Our t:slim mobile app is now live in five countries, with another seven scheduled for deployment before the end of the year and the remaining to follow soon after. This is a milestone in bringing our data management solutions to users worldwide and a testament to the world-class capabilities we are building in this space. Lastly, we continue to receive positive feedback from people with Type 2 diabetes who experienced real-world results similar to those in our study in the New England Journal of Medicine earlier this year. Control-IQ+ offers immediate and sustained improvement, even without carb counting and regardless of bolus strategy, including when people don't bolus at all. Importantly, we're seeing that insulin-dependent people using GLP-1s get even better outcomes when used with Control-IQ+.

In line with our expectations, t:slim's screen display resonates strongly with the Type 2 users, along with a 300-unit reservoir, as it reduces the frequency of cartridge changes, helping reduce the daily burden of diabetes. Following this positive feedback, we expanded our Type 2 commercial efforts, moving from pilot to full promotion of Control-IQ+ for people with Type 2 diabetes. The market is highly underpenetrated and requires development. We're seeing evidence as the territories that participated in our pilot launch activities are now the most productive in bringing our technology to people with Type 2. Serving this population is a focus for us because it offers meaningful longer-term growth opportunity, doubling our addressable market in the U.S. The third initiative driving our business transformation is shaping our business model to drive growth and improve gross margin and profitability.

We have been identifying and implementing changes to increase efficiency through interoperations, greater automation, and the implementation of new processes and systems. A major focus of reshaping our business model has been our pursuit and advancement of a multi-channel reimbursement strategy. There are two key pharmacy-related accomplishments this quarter. First, we've successfully increased pharmacy benefit coverage for Tandem Mobi to more than 40% of U.S. lives, a milestone we plan to build on in 2026. The next highlight is that we started selling t:slim supplies to our large existing customer base through the pharmacy benefit in September. As you recall, we previously shared this is a goal for Q4, and it's now off to a great start. Early uptake has been encouraging, with customers citing affordability, convenience, and simplified refills as the top reasons for switching to their pharmacy benefit.

This supports our thesis that pharmacy access is not only more efficient for Tandem, but also more appealing to our customers. Operationalizing pharmacy access for new and existing customers required significant internal effort. We've assembled a skilled team of market access and pharmacy distribution leaders with experience across leading PBMs, pharma, and medtech organizations, enabling faster contracting and smooth implementation. Their expertise has accelerated this strategic shift, making our AID technology more affordable and accessible while establishing a scalable foundation for future growth. As you can see, we've meaningfully advanced our key initiatives in support of Tandem's mission and financial goals. I want to thank our employees, as taking on these initiatives simultaneously has been quite an undertaking. The team's efforts are making a positive impact and starting to yield tangible results, positioning Tandem as a continued global leader in diabetes care.

I'll now turn the call over to Leigh, who will expand on our third-quarter results and future expectations. Leigh.

Leigh Vosseller (EVP and CFO)

Thanks, John. As a reminder, unless otherwise noted, the financial metrics I will be discussing today are on a non-GAAP basis. Reconciliations from GAAP to non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings release, as well as on the Investor Center portion of our website. Please note that 2025 sales and margins in the U.S. are no longer impacted by the Tandem Choice Program, which ended in 2024. 2025 continues to be a strong year for Tandem. With revenue of $249 million, we once again set record third-quarter sales. Our top-line outperformance was primarily driven by ASP increases on both pumps and supplies in the U.S., as well as favorable foreign currency dynamics. Another highlight of the quarter was our profitability, as our gross margin increased 3 percentage points year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA returned to positive.

In the U.S., third-quarter sales were approximately $176 million, marking our highest third quarter to date and our second highest quarter ever. Pricing was the primary contributor, providing significant benefit from both the DME and pharmacy channels. Notably, pricing alone increasingly contributed to year-over-year revenue growth this year, driving 2% growth in Q1, 4% in Q2, and 5% in Q3. This is due in part to the scaling of our pharmacy business to 5% of U.S. sales this quarter. We are excited by the potential for future pharmacy contribution as we further expand into the channel. Pump shipments in the U.S. were over 20,000. Consistent with our expectations, this was slightly down from Q2, following the pharmacy stocking benefit that we recognized in Q2. We continue to see strong demand for our portfolio of products, led by renewals from our large and loyal customer base.

Renewals continue to track to our historical capture rate of more than 70% of eligible customers within 18 months after warranty expiration. Turning to our performance outside the United States, we achieved $74 million in sales, delivering another record third quarter. Total international sales primarily increased year-over-year due to favorable movements in foreign currency exchange rates. Pump shipments were just over 9,000 as we continue our preparations to go direct in select European countries next year. True market demand remained strong, with end-user pump placements growing double digits year-over-year. In addition to our strong worldwide sales performance, we also demonstrated significant margin improvement. Our Q3 gross margin of 54% increased approximately 3 percentage points year-over-year and increased approximately 2 percentage points compared to Q2. Like sales, this reflects meaningful benefit from higher ASPs.

The combination of price, channel benefit, and scaling reductions in Mobi costs underpin both our near and long-term gross margin goals. Turning to our operating cost structure, we continue to prioritize spending towards resources that will drive top-line growth, generate efficiency, and strengthen our competitive position. Operating expenses increased 4% year-over-year, primarily attributed to SG&A investments. The SG&A increase reflects commercial investments in sales infrastructure, including U.S. Salesforce expansion, costs to support direct operations in Europe, and initiatives aimed at streamlining our operations. R&D costs declined year-over-year, a result of our commitment to investing in the development of highly innovative products for our customers while maintaining disciplined resource allocation and strategic portfolio management. We remain committed to enhancing efficiencies throughout the organization to strengthen our operating margin leverage. To further this initiative, we completed an organizational restructuring in the third quarter.

Our Q3 operating expenses include approximately $3 million in costs associated with this restructuring, which are expected to deliver financial benefits in the coming quarters. In addition, in recent years, we updated our incentive stock grant practices to more closely align with benchmarks, culminating in a $5 million reduction in non-cash stock-based compensation and costs compared to the prior year. As a result of our top-line growth and cost optimization efforts, Q3 marked a return to positive adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, and we ended the quarter with $319 million in total cash and investments. Looking at 2025 overall, we are on track to achieve double-digit growth at a milestone of $1 billion in worldwide sales. This includes U.S. sales of approximately $700 million, assuming a seasonal pump shipment curve that is consistent with our 2024 experience, where nearly 30% of shipments occurred in the fourth quarter.

It also reflects greater strength from pricing as we capitalize on the launch of t:slim supplies with a pharmacy benefit. Outside the U.S., we anticipate sales of approximately $300 million. This represents 12% growth year-over-year, even with approximately $10 million in headwinds assumed for distributor inventory destocking and inventory buybacks in advance of taking certain markets direct in early 2026. We are reaffirming our 2025 gross margin expectation in the range of 53%-54% of sales, with Q4 expected to be an all-time gross margin record in the mid to high 50s. We are also reaffirming our adjusted EBITDA expectations of -5% of sales. As a reminder, our expectation was 3% prior to a change in treatment of an in-process research and development charge in the first quarter, which impacted adjusted EBITDA by 8 percentage points.

We are focused on carrying our momentum from 2025 forward to the year ahead. We have a number of exciting opportunities across the P&L going into 2026, and while we are not providing guidance today, I would like to frame up some of the key baseline assumptions to think about for next year. In the U.S., we anticipate returning to new pump growth driven by MDI conversions from new product introductions and increased pharmacy access. Renewal opportunities from pumps sold in 2022 will be flat year-over-year at $80,000, but we still expect low double-digit sales growth based on the tail of customers who have not yet renewed from years past. Overall, more than 70% of our U.S. sales are expected to be generated by recurring and predictable revenue streams of renewals and supplies from our install base of more than 300,000 customers.

Additionally, the improved pricing we achieved this year foreshadows the value we can unlock with a multi-channel market access strategy. We have contracts with all the major PBMs and are positioned well for increasing pharmacy channel access. We are also focused on optimizing our operations for volumes at a larger scale. Our fourth quarter progress will provide valuable information to guide the level of benefit to come from channel mix assumptions in 2026, and we look forward to providing you with a more detailed update on our year-end earnings call. Turning to our international expectations, we anticipate driving further market expansion and increasing contribution from renewals, as well as growth from our direct operations that will scale across the year. We anticipate that nearly 15% of our international sales will be generated from direct market sales, up from less than 5% in 2025.

The primary benefit of going direct will initially be from ASP uplift, which may be variable in each market. Generally, though, over the four-year life of a patient, ASPs are anticipated to be at least 30% higher in a direct market versus our current distributor pricing. 2026 is also positioned to be an exciting year for both gross and operating margin leverage. We anticipate another step function improvement in gross margins from the combined benefit of lower product cost as Mobi scales and pricing contribution. Our goal is to deliver gross margin of at least 60% in Q4 2026. We are also focused on driving continued adjusted EBITDA improvement compared to the initial 3% operational target we set for 2025, as well as positive free cash flow. In summary, as we continue to execute our strategy, I remain confident in achieving our financial objectives.

I'll turn the call back to you, John.

John Sheridan (President and CEO)

Thanks, Leigh. To wrap up our prepared remarks, I have a few additional updates on our initiative to drive innovation throughout our product pipeline, which remains the most exciting in insulin therapy management. In the recent quarters, we have been refining our roadmap to best leverage our deep technology portfolio that we have developed through organic investments and key acquisitions. Starting with Mobi Tubeless, which transforms Mobi into the world's first extended-wear patch pump with a novel new cartridge and infusion site, Mobi becomes a solution for people who want to go 100% Tubeless, people who prefer to use traditional infusion sets, and people who want a choice in interchanging wear options. Our market research shows that offering a Tubeless wear mode for Mobi significantly increases user preference. When implemented with extended wear, user preferences increase even higher.

We expect Mobi Tubeless to be our first commercial offering featuring extended wear technology. We have prioritized its launch ahead of SteadiSet, our extended wear infusion set, based on the high level of market enthusiasm for extended wear patch pump. We are entering the final stages of Mobi Tubeless testing to support a 510(k) submission. Manufacturing scale-up activities are happening in parallel to reduce the time between clearance and the commercial launch in 2026. Rounding out our platform update, we have also been refining the design of our Sigi Patch Pump, which we acquired from AMF Medical. Bringing Sigi development to San Diego earlier this year produced a great outcome. The team identified opportunities to combine the best of our Mobi and Sigi platforms together, creating development synergies, enabling further miniaturization, and enhancing competitive differentiation.

We are excited about what this means for the Sigi technology as part of our Tubeless roadmap. From a commercial perspective, we anticipate marketing this pump as our next-generation Mobi, building on the growing brand recognition of this new product family. Finally, I want to acknowledge the work of our team and our partners at the University of Virginia's Center for Diabetes Technology for their progress in developing fully closed-loop technology for Tandem pump platforms. Our vision for fully closed-loop is to give people the ability to interact with their pump as much or as little as they like. We remain committed to advancing these R&D efforts quickly, and our goal is to start a pivotal study for our new fully closed-loop algorithm next year.

In conclusion, we began this year focused on business transformation, and I am proud of the progress we are making that positions Tandem for future success. As we approach year-end, we have an energized commercial organization, growing product momentum, and a sharpened focus on our forward-looking roadmap. Tandem's achievements this year reflect our strategic vision and deep commitment to innovation in diabetes care. We have made measurable progress in modernizing our commercial operations, driving innovation, and evolving our business model. Looking ahead, our focus remains on delivering meaningful solutions for people living with diabetes, fostering operational excellence, and positioning Tandem for continued leadership and success in the global market. We appreciate your ongoing support and look forward to sharing further progress in the future quarters. Thank you again for joining us today.

Operator (participant)

As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. In the interest of time, we ask that you please limit yourself to one question. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Matt Miksic with Barclays. Your line is open.

Matt Miksic (Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, thanks so much for taking the questions, and congrats on a really strong quarter. Wanted to get a sense of, as we head into next year, maybe just kind of a broad question in terms of cadence. I know you're not going to, may not give much color today on 2026 outlook, although I'm sure you'll get a lot of questions on it. I'll ask mine around the idea of cadence. Some of the new products, the continued progression into pharmacy, some of the geographic initiatives that you've undertaken. Taking all those into account, can you maybe give us a sense of acceleration, catalysts, and sort of progressive growth throughout the year if you were to map it out today, steering clear of what the headline number will be.

As I said, I'm sure you're going to get more questions on that, but that color would be great. Thanks.

John Sheridan (President and CEO)

Hey there, Matt. A lot to unpack there. Yeah, I think what I'll do is I'll kind of give you a sense of what the pipeline is going to look like, and then I'll let Leigh talk more about the pharmacy channel and some of the other initiatives that we've got going on. I think that you can tell from the call here that we are really trying to increase our focus on what really matters for the business. Certainly, we are very excited about Mobi, and we think it really will be the workhorse for the company in the not-too-distant future. As we just explained in the call, we're waiting to get the Mobi Android approval here before the end of the year. I think as you move into 2026, we're going to be moving Mobi to OUS countries.

We intend to implement FreeStyle Libre 3, and we also intend to implement the Tubeless version of Mobi. I think when you think about that and when you include that with Control-IQ, I mean, that's a powerful product, and I think it's going to really significantly change the competitive dynamic that we face in the marketplace today. We're certainly very excited about it, and I would say we feel very confident we're going to make these things happen in 2026, and I think it's going to have a market effect on the business. Leigh, you want to talk a bit about the pharmacy work that we're doing?

Leigh Vosseller (EVP and CFO)

Sure. I think to sum it up, just based on John's comments, the way you can think about it is these are building across the year in 2026. A lot of them just began at full commercial rollout. A lot of things are in flight. We're very excited with our pharmacy progress. There's more to build on there. Our business transformation in the U.S. that we've been investing in, we're starting to see the green shoots from a productivity perspective coming out of our commercial team. A lot of these things are going to be coming to fruition and building across the year in 2026. That's how you can think about the cadence.

It also is not just the top line, but it flows down through the bottom line as well, because we will also begin to show more leverage across the year from these investments that we have made as we are generating the return on the top line. You can also expect seasonality, but the building of the margin expectations and the EBITDA expectations as the revenue grows.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Larry Beagleton with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Larry Beagleton (Medical Device Analyst)

Excuse me. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. Leigh, I wanted to focus my question on price and the uplift you can get from the supplies going through the pharmacy. On price, the 5% benefit in Q3, where do you see that going in 2026? You're launching the t:slim supplies in the pharmacy this quarter. Any incremental color on what the pricing uplift is and how long the transition will take? How do we think about your current supply revenue per user at about $1,000 going forward? Thanks for taking the question.

Leigh Vosseller (EVP and CFO)

Sure. Thanks, Larry. It's a good question. We obviously haven't given a lot of color yet on how to think about it. One thing I'll point out is that as we've seen price increases across this year and it's been increasingly a contributor to our revenue growth, the balance of it was really from DME in the first half of the year, and in the third quarter, it flipped around and the balance of it's coming from the pharmacy operations. As we go into Q4, I think you can back in pretty easily into what we're expecting from a pricing benefit on supplies. That's probably a good way between Q3 and Q4, what you're seeing to think about as a baseline as we step into 2026.

As we accumulate more data and trends and information from our progress in the fourth quarter, the level of coverage that we expect to have as we step into the beginning of the year, when we give our guidance assumptions at the year-end earnings call, we can give a lot more color on how to think about that build. I would say what you're seeing now is a solid baseline.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Chris Pasquale with Nephron Research. Your line is open.

Chris Pasquale (Senior Analyst)

Thanks. Leigh, I wanted to follow up on the guidance and the comment around seasonality. A year ago, 4Q did not come together quite the way you guys expected, resulted in sales coming in below guidance. Can you just expand on what exactly you are assuming happens this time around? Is it similar to last year or a return to sort of what would have been normal in previous years?

Leigh Vosseller (EVP and CFO)

Yes, thanks for the question, Chris. When we built the seasonal curve expectations for 2025, we absolutely factored in our experience in 2024, which, to your point, was a bit more muted at the end of the year than what we had seen in years past. What is underpinning, I guess I would say, the fourth-quarter shipments? Last year, we saw about 30% of the full-year shipments landing in the fourth quarter. That is probably a good place to start for this year. Just the breakdown between new and renewal, you can still think about it as renewal being a little more than half. A lot of that step-up from Q3 to Q4 is really underpinned by the new renewal opportunities coming to market in the fourth quarter. I think that is a great starting point.

Just to sum it all up, I would say very similar to what we saw in 2024.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Danielle Antalffy with UBS. Your line is open.

Danielle Antalffy (Analyst)

Hey, good afternoon, guys. Thanks so much for taking the question. Leigh, thanks for the color on the renewal pumps. I guess just curious, I'm not sure if you guys can give any insights or clarity on what percentage renewals make pump shifts, given that shifts, excuse me, given that this was, I think you said, a historically high quarter. I don't know if it's easier to ask the question like percent that's new patients to pump or new patients to Tandem pump versus renewals or what. I guess just trying to get a sense of what number of new patients have come on to Tandem in the last quarter. And that's it for me.

Leigh Vosseller (EVP and CFO)

Sure. Thanks for the question, Danielle. Happy to take it. I would say the trends have remained consistent across each of the quarters this year where renewals have been a little bit more than half of the shipments. In the new start population, MDI conversions have been about 2/3 of the shipments. We did see continued pressure in the third quarter, and we expect again in the fourth quarter for new starts. That was factored into our updated guidance expectations we talked about last quarter where we said there would be a slight decline year-over-year. I will point back to all the opportunities that John laid out earlier from our initiatives between new product introductions, between pharmacy access, and just our commercial transformation really taking hold and taking root.

We really expect to see a turnaround in that new start number and expect to return to growth in 2026.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from David Roman with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Hey, thanks for taking the question. You've got Jamie on for David today. Appreciated some of the building blocks you gave for 2026. I wanted to focus on the comments around returning to new pump growth driven by MDI conversions and just getting a sense of what you're seeing in the market today, both in Type 1 and Type 2, and how you're expecting that to evolve both in terms of just market growth and competitive dynamics to get to that assumption that you've provided for 2026.

John Sheridan (President and CEO)

Thanks for the question. I would say that if you look at the basis of competition today, it's changed dramatically over the last couple of years. I would say that form factors are a very important element of that, and so is market access. If you look at these transformational objectives that we've got going on right now, we're certainly focused on increasing our presence in the pharmacy channel. We certainly think that by doing that, you reduce the out-of-pocket for patients, and it's easier for the physician to prescribe it. I think that getting to the pharmacy channel is something that we think will definitely positively affect our MDI uptake. At the same time, if you look at the innovation that we've got going on, we have things that are in the works. These things are on deck and are going to happen.

I mean, as of right now, as I mentioned, we just got the FreeStyle Libre 3 approval. That's gone out broadly in the U.S. We expect to get Mobi Android approved here shortly. We have a number of other product-related feature enhancements that are going to really improve, I think, the competitive basis of Mobi in the marketplace. I think the combination of both of those really will affect MDI growth and get us to return to the point where we absolutely see growth in MDIs, and the company will go back to double-digit growth like we've seen consistently in the past.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mike Kratky with Leerink Partners. Your line is open.

Mike Kratky (Senior Research Analyst)

Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking our questions, and congrats on the great quarter. I appreciate all the recent progress on gaining pharmacy traction. I think you mentioned over 40% of pharmacy coverage for Mobi. Can you just clarify how much of that 40% coverage you can actually get paid for in the pharmacy today, and what are the main milestones that can help bridge that gap, if any?

Leigh Vosseller (EVP and CFO)

Sure. Thanks for the question, Mike. The way to think about our pharmacy coverage is starting with we have contracts with all the major PBMs. The 40% we provide is really the payer lines that are attached to those contracts today. As you can expect, in any payer environment, some access is better than others. That is what we've been working on across this year, is improving our access both within the plans that we have and expanding that access through pull-through. As we think about pharmacy, it's been a measured approach this year. There's a lot to be ready for an organization of our size to be able to scale efficiently. There is a lot of operational aspects with how we take an order, how we fulfill an order, how we communicate with patients and physicians on the way this will work in the future.

That's what we've been doing in 2025, is shoring up access, preparing for us to step into 2026, and really push pharmacy at a much larger scale next year.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Matthew O'Brien with Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

Hi there. This is Anna on for Matt. Thanks for taking the question. I guess I just wanted to ask specifically on the gross margin guide. I mean, there was some solid improvement in Q3, so that was good to see. You're still guiding to 53%-54% for the full year. You said mid to high 60s percent in the fourth quarter, which is a pretty meaningful step up. Just wondering sort of what's baked into the assumptions there and what gets you to the full-year target. Thanks.

Leigh Vosseller (EVP and CFO)

Sure. I appreciate the question. And so, just to confirm, the fourth quarter is expecting to be our all-time high, which is in the mid to high 50s percent. And that's the launching point as we go into next year, where we usually see a modest step down. But by the end of next year, we expect to be at 60% in the fourth quarter. And so, what drives that step up this year? When you look at the drivers of our business that impact gross margin, the single biggest contributor has always been pumps, and it's pumps in the U.S. And so, pumps come first. International has a little bit of pressure because of the pricing dynamics using distributors there. And then supplies have been the smallest contributor to gross margin. So, as pump sales become a bigger percent of our business, you usually see margin scale.

What I'll add to that is, I would say the newer information is as we continue to penetrate pharmacy with our launch of t:slim supplies in the pharmacy channel. Think about the large install base that we have and being able to get that price appreciation. That's also factored into contributing to our gross margin step-up in the fourth quarter of this year. We are really excited about what pharmacy can deliver for us as a business because I think you're seeing measurable benefit already with just the small volumes that we've had. You can only imagine where this could go in the long-term as we continue to broaden our access.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Richard Newitter with Truist Securities. Your line is open.

Hi, it's Felipe on for Rich. Thanks for taking the question. Just on the pharmacy channel, you and a few of your competitors are entering the channel pretty quickly. I'm just trying to understand, or can you help us understand why we should or shouldn't see more competitive rebetting strategies in the channel as more players enter? What are overall expectations for pricing in the channel over the long-term? Thanks for taking the question.

Leigh Vosseller (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, thanks, Felipe. When we think about this, this is something as we've looked at over the years. There was a time when durable pumps were not even accepted in the channel. There was also always the concern that when you get into the pharmacy channel in any category, there will be price erosion over time. When we looked at our opportunity in the near-term, for us, there is a significant step-up opportunity when you compare to DME to our base business today. It makes sense for us to enter into that category, especially with the access we think we can offer to patients with a lower out-of-pocket cost. In the long-term, it could mean pricing pressure. For us, what we are doing is we are getting in, we are building a stable business off of it.

We're preparing for that possibility if we're going to take full advantage of it in the near-term as we enter that channel. I think with all of us in the channel together, we all hope to get that pricing premium to continue to support our margins in the long-term. It is a risk, but it's something that we think we can mitigate, and it's worth going into despite that.

John Sheridan (President and CEO)

I'd also just say that when you look at the two pump competitors that are out there today, their volume in the pharmacy channel is very low and probably will be for a while. I think ultimately, I think it's going to be Tandem and one of the large entities that have meaningful volume in the market. I think we'll have to see how that dynamic plays out.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Joanne Wuensch with Citibank. Your line is open.

Joanne Wuensch (Managing Director and Head of U.S. Healthcare Research)

Thank you so much for taking the question. I want to go back to something that you said about Sigi. And if I heard you correctly, you were calling it a next-generation Mobi. Maybe I just misunderstood that. But could you please sort of clarify how you think about launching that product into the market? And thank you.

John Sheridan (President and CEO)

Sure. I would start off by saying that Mobi Tubeless is going to be the first extended wear pump on the market. It is going to be a patch pump. We have done quite a bit of research on Mobi Tubeless, and it scored very well. I mean, availability of Tubeless wear and Control-IQ provided meaningful uptake and user preference. With the implementation of extended wear capabilities, we also saw further increases in preference. I think that we are seeing this great enthusiasm for Mobi. As an extended wear product, it really gives us confidence that it is going to do very well in the marketplace. As we begin to see the design come together and based on this high level of enthusiasm, we believe that we only need one Tubeless product on the market at a time.

We absolutely plan to continue to invest in Sigi's development. On a forward-going basis, it's best to think about it as the next-generation Mobi product and part of the growing brand and product for that family. We want to give Mobi room to run. I think it's going to do very, very well.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Suraj Kalia with Oppenheimer & Co. Your line is open.

Suraj Kalia (Managing Director)

Hi Leigh. Hi John. Hopefully, you can hear me all right.

John Sheridan (President and CEO)

We can hear you fine.

Leigh Vosseller (EVP and CFO)

We can.

Suraj Kalia (Managing Director)

Perfect. John, one question for you and one for Leigh, and I'll pose them up front. John, you mentioned the fully closed-loop system. Obviously, it needs an input signal. I was curious if you could indicate which CGM or which camp are you leaning towards for the autonomous fully closed-loop system. Leigh, for you, I just wanted to follow up on Danielle's question, right? Please correct me if my math is wrong. U.S. pump revs down 2% year-over-year, price 5% benefit. Am I right in thinking units were down 7%? I guess my real question then would be, if I look at patients that are switching or starting new from MDI versus repeat patients, how should we think about relative softness in these two buckets? Hopefully, my math is right, but please correct me if I'm not.

Thank you for taking my questions.

John Sheridan (President and CEO)

I can tell you that when it comes to the fully closed-loop system, that it's going to work with all of the CGMs that are currently integrated with our product. The CGMs are interoperable, and it's really the fully closed-loop algorithm that matters. Our team is doing a great job, and we've got a great collaboration going on with UVA right now in the Center for Diabetes Technology. I would say that the partnership with UVA has been something that's been ongoing. If you look back to 2016, it largely resulted in Control-IQ. We chose to work with UVA back then because they had the most amount of clinical data for an AID system at that point in time. The FDA was very, very familiar with the product as well. Today, we find ourselves in a very similar position.

We're working with UVA again, and we're working with them to implement their fully closed-loop algorithm. Once again, their algorithm has the most amount of clinical data that's out there, and it's very familiar to the FDA. We're working expeditiously to get the system ready for trial. As I said in the preparatory remarks, our plans are to implement the fully closed-loop pivotal study next year.

Leigh Vosseller (EVP and CFO)

To your question on new pump starts. The way to think about it in the third quarter is, first of all, remind you that in the second quarter, we had a small stocking dynamic. If you normalize for that between Q2 and Q3, you would see pump shipments roughly flat, which is a normal seasonal trend. When you break it down between renewal and new pumps, we did see strong growth in renewal pumps as we have been demonstrating. As we expected, new pumps continue to be slightly pressured. When you further break down new pumps and focus on MDI conversions versus competitive conversions, the competitive conversions have been a large reason why we've seen some headwinds in new pump starts this year. One of the primary competitors that has been a big contributor, I would say, to our competitive conversions.

Has started to retain more of their own customers and have less to share, I guess I would say. At the end of the day, we are very focused on the MDI conversion part of the population. And we've already, I think you've heard many of the opportunities we've listed out that can really help drive and stimulate growth in MDI conversions as we look ahead.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jayson Bedford with Raymond James & Associates. Your line is open.

Hi, this is Elaine on for Jayson. Thanks for taking the question. You had a nice beat outside the U.S., especially in supplies. Can you talk about what drove this strength there? Did you see any impact from stocking or preparing to go direct? Also, you talked about a $10 million headwind. Is that more weighted towards third quarter or the fourth quarter? Thank you.

Leigh Vosseller (EVP and CFO)

Sure. On our OUS performance this quarter, I would say underlying trends were pretty much in line with our expectations. The outperformance is mostly attributed to a few million dollars benefit from foreign currency dynamics that worked in our favor this quarter. To those underlying trends, what you're seeing are the effect of what the distributors are ordering from us. When you see what happens in the end market, we actually showed low double-digit growth in our placements in the market. What's being shipped out the door is being impacted somewhat, as you mentioned, by the transition to going direct. What we've seen across this year is some destocking from some of the distributors as they're working down their inventory levels. That's a part of the $10 million headwind we've factored into our expectations.

We expect to see a bit stronger impact from that in the fourth quarter as we near the actual launch in those markets and potentially have to enter into an inventory buyback situation. The underlying market dynamics are really strong outside the U.S. We look forward to taking some of these markets direct ourselves and being able to even further accelerate that growth looking ahead.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from William Plovanicwith Canaccord Genuity. Your line is open.

Bill Plovanic (Managing Director and Equity Research Medical Technology Analyst)

Great. Thanks. Good evening, and thanks for taking my question. I really wanted to dive into Type 2 here. You're one of two on the label with it. It's been a big driver for one of your competitors. I know you're just going to full launch. Is this something that you're really waiting for Mobi Tubeless before you kind of go full out and see a bigger impact? Is this waiting for pharmacy, or is it you just got past the pilot phase and it's only because you just got past the pilot phase?

John Sheridan (President and CEO)

Okay, Bill. Thanks. I would say that we're leveling.

Bill Plovanic (Managing Director and Equity Research Medical Technology Analyst)

If I could also, what percentage of new patient starts were Type 2 this quarter? I don't know if you shared that. Thanks. Sorry for interrupting.

John Sheridan (President and CEO)

Okay. Yeah, sure. No problem. I would say that we're certainly leveraging the lessons from the pilot. And there's a lot of great information that comes back on our marketing training and the sales execution. But as you say, you're right. We've kind of evaluated the performance of the pilots, and now we're moving to full commercial launch. The pilot territories were very productive. I think that we're getting very positive feedback from physicians and patients that they're seeing the same experiences that we saw in our Type 2 trial: immediate sustained results, the simplification of the bolus process, and their soon achievable with GLP-1 use. The preference so far, it's leaning towards the screen displays and 300-unit reservoirs. T:slim is, interestingly enough, the preference for most people. That's fine. I think that that's where we're going to go.

Market development is needed, and certainly we're going to do that. I think having additional competitors out there doing market development at the same time is a positive thing for us. Pharmacy channel and Tubeless are only going to improve the uptake. I think we're going to start full blast here. It's actually started. We started in the third quarter. We're continuing to move aggressively with the products that we've got on the marketplace. As we do access more of the pharmacy channel, we do get Mobi Tubeless. We think that's going to also significantly improve our performance in that market. It doubles the size of the addressable market for us. We're going to do everything we can to take advantage of that. I will say we haven't said specifically what the number of starts that we have.

I'm not sure we're going to talk about that specifically in the future either. Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Polark with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Michael Polark (Senior Research Analyst)

Hey, good afternoon. I want to just make sure I fully understand the updated comments on Tubeless Mobi. I heard 510(k) submission entering final stages. I also heard commercial launch in 2026. If I were to assume you have 510(k) in by the end of the year, count six months, it's kind of mid-year approval, 2H 2026 launch. Is that a reasonable way to think about it? Two other pieces of this, I continue to hear the emphasis on extended wear. Is the best assumption that when this product comes to market, it will have the seven-day set exclusively? On manufacturing, ramping in parallel, the expectation is you will be ready for kind of big bang introduction when these other boxes get checked or still would be a process post-approval to ramp supply. Thank you.

John Sheridan (President and CEO)

Yeah. I mean, I think we understand the importance of Mobi Tubeless in the marketplace. We think that product is going to really help us return to a very competitive position. As a result of that, I indicated in the prepared remarks, we are going to prioritize Mobi Tubeless over SteadiSet. We are going to introduce Mobi Tubeless first with the extended wear. It will have seven days when it does come to market. We will have SteadiSet. I mean, we're not deprioritizing SteadiSet, but I think that you know that there's a great deal of enthusiasm for Mobi Tubeless. It's certainly going to drive business opportunity for us. I think if we work on one product versus two, we can get it to market faster. We know Mobi Tubeless is going to sell a lot of pumps. I think that.

We think this is a really important initiative. We have not said specifically on the timing. We have said 2026, but I can guarantee you we are doing everything we can, as I just indicated, prioritizing it over other products to make sure we bring it to market as fast as possible. We think it is going to be a great product and really, again, differentiate Tandem in the marketplace again.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jeff Johnson with Baird. Your line is open.

Jeff Johnson (Senior Research Analyst)

Thank you. Good afternoon, guys. I think most of my questions have been answered. Maybe just back on the U.S. pharmacy comments. There were 5% of revenues this quarter. Can you just remind us what the breakdown is, supplies versus pumps in that? I know you have the 40% lives under coverage for Mobi. Are you getting many pumps there? And Leigh, I think you and I have talked in the past on the pharmacy side that some of your pharmacy contracts, even on the Mobi side, may not be straight pay-as-you-go models where you kind of take that four-year total price and just divide it by 48 months, that you might actually get more Mobi revenue upfront and more supplies over those 48 months. Just kind of maybe refresh us on what structure of some of those pharmacy contracts might look like with Mobi as well. Thank you.

Leigh Vosseller (EVP and CFO)

Yep. Thanks for the questions, Jeff. Just to your comment about the 5% and where's the balance, I would say that it's all been Mobi so far, except we did introduce t:slim supplies in the channel in September. It was a balance between pump and supplies before. It will start to lean more towards supplies as we look ahead into Q4 because there's such a large opportunity with t:slim with the large install base that we have. It'll start to lean in the other direction on the supply side. In terms of the reimbursement model, you have a good memory there. Our contracts today are pretty much all structured like a traditional DME reimbursement model. Not the price point necessarily, but how the breakdown is between pumps and supplies with reimbursement upfront for the pump and then ongoing reimbursement for the supplies.

This hasn't been a headwind for patient adoption because we have such a great ability to influence the out-of-pocket for the patients with copay assistance programs. We still get the same benefit with patients, and it's keeping the same structure in place that we've been accustomed to with DME. As we look ahead, in order to get the maximum or the most optimal access on pharmacy, we are looking at other reimbursement models. We would consider anything from the DME-like model we have today all the way to a more pay-as-you-go model and anything in between, if you will. It's something that we'll share more in the future as we get more coverage and we talk about the expansion of our pharmacy program. For now, they are all that DME-like structure.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone. Again, that is star one one to ask a question. Our next question comes from Travis Steed with Bank of America Securities. Your line is open.

Stephanie Piazzola (VP of Equity Research)

Hi, this is Stephanie Piazzola on for Travis. Thanks for taking the question. I just wanted to follow up on a comment that John made about getting back to the double-digit growth you've seen in the past and just wanted to clarify if that was referring to expectations for MDI patient growth next year specifically or over time and if that was U.S. or worldwide comment. Thank you.

Leigh Vosseller (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, thanks for the question, Stephanie. I'll answer for John on that one. We have often said that our goal long-term is to have sustained double-digit growth with a dual focus on profitability. That is what John was referring to, not to any particular piece or part or period, but that is just what our financial goal is. We look forward with all these opportunities to demonstrate and execute on that looking ahead.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from John Block with Stifel. Your line is open.

John Block (Analyst)

Thanks and good afternoon. Leigh, I have revenues up $25 million Q over Q for the fourth quarter and a similar amount for EBITDA. We'll call it like roughly 100% drop through on the incremental revenue to get to the EBITDA margin guidance of -5%. On the fly math is always dangerous. That is where I'm sort of spitting out for the model to get to the $1 billion and the -5% margin. It is a high drop through. I'm calculating the current drop through in the most recent quarter at impressive, 50%, 60%, but not 100%. Maybe if you could just bridge us. Obviously, you have the gross margin, but then what are some of the other things that we should think about? I'm guessing it is some of the restructuring that you alluded to on the call. Any color would be great. Thanks.

Leigh Vosseller (EVP and CFO)

Sure. Happy to take that. When you look at Q3 to Q4, the implied revenue step up, it's mostly coming from the U.S. business. As I mentioned earlier, there are the pump shipments stepping up in line with what we've typically seen seasonally. When you have more pump shipments, we generally see a higher gross margin. We have a particular assumption for price improvement on supplies in the fourth quarter as we've introduced t:slim into the pharmacy channel. That really benefits the gross margin, which is piece one. You already acknowledged that's a nice step up. Dropping through to the bottom line, the incremental benefit is coming from that leverage we expect to see in our spending. As you mentioned, we did initiate a restructuring in the third quarter, which will yield benefit, but also just our entire commercial transformation that's underway.

Part of it was changing the shape of how we go to market and make ourselves more competitive. Part of that is how to streamline and automate and improve our processes internally for how we engage with patients and the pump orders and the supply orders and so on. We are beginning, we are expecting to start to see the benefit of that as we exit this year and going into 2026, we'll build on that even further. Again, we're very excited about what the future holds for us here, where we look forward to demonstrating this profitability improvement that everyone's been waiting so eagerly for and continuing to drive the business in a positive way with all the new innovations, business model changes, and the transformation that we have going on right now.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. This concludes today's question-and-answer session and conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.