TNL Q2 2025 Raises VPG Guidance on Strong Tour Flow
- Robust New Owner and Tour Flow Performance: Management highlighted accelerated tour flow in Q2 and expects the new owner mix to improve toward a 35% target, with close rates up roughly 11 percentage points from pre-COVID levels. This indicates strong organic growth and effective customer acquisition strategies in a resilient market.
- Operational Resilience with Strong Credit Quality: The company reported moderated delinquency trends—with elevated levels early in the year normalizing in Q2 and into early July—and maintained disciplined underwriting with new origination FICO scores above 740. This supports robust asset quality and stable margins despite macroeconomic challenges.
- Strategic Brand Expansion and Diversification: Exciting initiatives such as the upcoming Sports Illustrated resort projects in Nashville (opening in 2026) and Tuscaloosa (early 2027), along with new strategic partnerships like with Hornblower, position the company to diversify revenues and access incremental markets for sustained growth.
- Declining Travel & Membership Performance: The Travel and Membership segment saw revenues decline by 6% and adjusted EBITDA fall by 11% in Q2, indicating potential structural challenges in this business unit.
- Uncertainty in New Owner Acquisition: Although the overall owner base remains strong, fluctuations in new owner mix—currently at 30% versus a long‑term target of 35%—raise concerns that a continued imbalance could pressure overall growth and average transaction values.
- Delayed Project Deliveries: Key projects, such as the purpose‐built Tuscaloosa Sports Illustrated resort, are delayed until early 2027, which heightens execution risks and could negatively impact the growth pipeline.
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA | Q3 2025 | $245M to $255M | $250M to $260M | raised |
Vacation Ownership Gross VOI Sales | Q3 2025 | $620M to $640M | $650M to $680M | raised |
VPG (Volume Per Guest) | Q3 2025 | 3,050 to 3,150 | $3,200 to $3,250 | raised |
Adjusted EBITDA | FY 2025 | $955M to $985M | $955M to $985M | no change |
Gross VOI Sales | FY 2025 | no prior guidance [N/A] | $2.4B to $2.5B | no prior guidance |
VPG (Volume Per Guest) | FY 2025 | no prior guidance [N/A] | $3,200 to $3,250 | no prior guidance |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
---|---|---|---|
New Owner Acquisition | In Q1 2025, mix was around 31% with expectations to reach 35%. In Q4 2024, new owner transactions were around 35%–37% with a focus on partnerships. In Q3 2024 the mix was consistently above 35%, highlighting strong performance and higher lifetime value. | Q2 2025 reported a 30% new owner mix along with strong performance metrics (close rates, VPG, transaction sizes) and new partnerships supporting incremental growth. | Slightly lower mix in Q2 versus prior periods but with robust performance indicators and strategic initiatives to drive growth; a temporary fluctuation amid long‑term target focus. |
Tour Flow Performance | Q1 2025 showed a 1% decline with expectations of future acceleration. In Q4 2024, tour flow grew by about 2% with adjustments due to channel culling. In Q3 2024 overall tours increased by 4% though new owner channels, with noted challenges in Las Vegas affecting growth. | Q2 2025 recorded a 3% year‑over‑year increase with sequential acceleration and emphasis on new partnerships and in‑house channels to maintain momentum. | Consistent improvement in tour flow performance with evidence of sequential acceleration; challenges remain regionally but overall growth trajectory is positive. |
Credit Quality & Delinquency Trends & Loan Loss Provision Risks | In Q1 2025, elevated delinquencies led to a full‑year provision of 21% despite strong credit quality. Q4 2024 highlighted high average FICO scores (744) and a steady push to keep delinquencies in check with a guidance around 20% provision. Q3 2024 emphasized rising FICO standards and stable delinquency outcomes with a forecast of full‑year provisions around 20%, trending below 19% over time. | In Q2 2025, credit quality remained strong (originations above 740) with moderated delinquencies throughout the quarter and a maintained 21% loan loss provision, along with prospects for improvement over time. | Stable credit quality with disciplined underwriting and gradually moderating delinquencies; continued vigilance with provisions while aiming for efficiency improvements. |
Travel & Membership Segment Performance | Q1 2025 saw a 7% revenue decline and 9% drop in adjusted EBITDA due to weaker exchange transactions. In Q4 2024, revenues were nearly flat with modest adjusted EBITDA growth, aided by cost management and improved Travel Club transactions. In Q3 2024, the segment was in transformation with flat EBITDA and pricing pressure from industry consolidation. | Q2 2025 reported a 6% revenue decline and 11% drop in adjusted EBITDA, attributed to industry consolidation headwinds and M&A disruptions, while initiatives like a 7% rise in TravelClub transactions offer some mitigation. | Ongoing structural headwinds with consistent underperformance in exchange channels; gradual shift towards improving Travel Club business, though challenges persist across periods. |
Capital Allocation, Cash Flow & Shareholder Returns | Q1 2025 emphasized share repurchases, dividend increases, and consistent capital allocation with strong operating cash flow. Q4 2024 reported robust returns with $377 million total capital returned and notable efficiency metrics. Q3 2024 highlighted steady capital return through buybacks and dividends with disciplined M&A and strong free cash flow generation. | Q2 2025 focused on reinvesting in high‑return growth, reported $123 million adjusted free cash flow in H1, returned $107 million to shareholders, and maintained over $800 million in liquidity. | Maintaining disciplined capital allocation and strong cash flow generation with consistent shareholder returns; liquidity remains robust and strategy is steady across periods. |
Strategic Brand Expansion & Diversification (Sports Illustrated) | Q1 2025 focused on initiating Sports Illustrated sales and finalizing a SI Trust conversion. Q4 2024 detailed a robust SI pipeline with a focus on conversion properties and learning from initial operations. Q3 2024 communicated long‑term vision of scaling SI to a $300–$400 million business with incremental growth starting at $25–$30 million. | Q2 2025 introduced a new Sports Illustrated resort in Nashville (185 units) with sales starting in Q4 2025, and noted a delayed Tuscaloosa project due to permitting, with further SI projects to be announced. | A clear evolution toward aggressive brand expansion, with expanded project announcements and refined timelines; strategic diversification to drive long‑term revenue growth is increasingly emphasized. |
Accor Vacation Club Integration | Q4 2024 showcased a seamless integration with Accor delivering $6 million in adjusted EBITDA and enabling organic growth through a replacement mode. Q3 2024 reported integration ahead of schedule with four reopened sales sites and early revenue synergies, contributing over $3 million in EBITDA. Q1 2025 did not mention the integration. | Q2 2025 highlighted strong support from Accor's Asia‑Pacific teams, leading to the announcement of a new Novotel Nusadua resort in Indonesia, underscoring Accor’s role as a supplementary growth avenue. | Integration remains a key growth driver with increasing focus on leveraging international brands; performance and synergy targets continue to be met, reinforcing its role in organic growth. |
Technology & Digital Engagement Initiatives | Q1 2025 reported significant adoption of the Club Wyndham app (nearly 100,000 downloads) with high conversion rates and deployed texting enhancing on-site satisfaction. Q4 2024 noted the launch of the Club Wyndham app with 40,000 downloads and a planned revamp of the WorldMark website, indicating early positive feedback. Q3 2024 mentioned forthcoming technology enhancements. | In Q2 2025, investments in AI on web and app channels were highlighted; the Club Wyndham app reached 162,000 downloads (accounting for 19% of bookings) and a WorldMark app is scheduled for a Q4 launch. | Continuous digital evolution with accelerating adoption and higher conversion; from early rollout stages to advanced AI investments, technology initiatives are deepening customer engagement. |
Project Delivery Timelines & Execution Risks | Q1 2025 briefly mentioned progress on a Sports Illustrated Trust project with quick sales conversion plans. Q4 2024 had no specific discussion, while Q3 2024 emphasized strong sales force execution and integration synergies without detailed project timelines. | Q2 2025 provided detailed updates on Sports Illustrated projects (Nashville conversion on‑time; Tuscaloosa delayed by one quarter due to permitting) and stressed balancing tour flow with VPG, highlighting execution risks in permitting and inventory alignment. | Emerging focus on execution risk management in project delivery, with Q2 2025 providing more granular details on timeline adjustments and associated regulatory risks compared to prior minimal coverage. |
Volume Per Guest & Consumer Demand Consistency | Q1 2025 reported a VPG of $3,212 with resilient consumer demand and only modest changes in booking windows despite macro uncertainty. Q4 2024 recorded a VPG of $3,284 and noted consistency in consumer behavior despite mix adjustments; forward guidance for 2025 was provided. Q3 2024 highlighted VPG remaining above $3,000 (nearly 30% higher than 2019) and steady consumer demand, bolstered by improved credit standards. | Q2 2025 achieved a VPG of $3,251, a 7% increase year‑over‑year, and raised full‑year guidance to $3,200–$3,250, supported by strong consumer demand with consistent booking windows (109 days) and resilient owner engagement despite broader challenges. | VPG remains robust and consistently above key thresholds across all periods; consumer demand is stable and resilient, with incremental improvement in value metrics reinforcing confidence in the underlying business model. |
Market‑Specific Sales & Marketing Challenges | Q3 2024 noted weakness in Las Vegas leading to lower new owner tour growth and impacting gross VOI sales; Q4 2024 also highlighted softness in Las Vegas and adjustments via culling low‑performing channels. Q1 2025 did not mention any market‑specific issues. | Q2 2025 did not mention any specific market‑specific challenges such as those in Las Vegas, suggesting either resolution or de‑emphasis this period. | While past calls flagged challenges in key markets like Las Vegas, these issues are not highlighted in Q2 2025, indicating a possible temporary improvement or a shift in focus away from regional difficulties. |
-
Travel Membership
Q: Is membership visibility declining?
A: Management acknowledged some decline in the travel membership segment—in part due to M&A impacts and industry consolidation—but they are addressing these challenges with strategic initiatives and steady operational execution. -
VPG Guidance
Q: Is tour growth affecting gross VOI?
A: They raised VPG guidance reflecting strong tour flow and resilient consumer behavior, indicating that healthy VOI performance is expected despite softer gross VOI sales figures. -
Credit Trends
Q: How are delinquencies performing?
A: Delinquencies have moderated from earlier elevations and are stable through July, with a full-year provision of 21% underscoring disciplined underwriting and improving credit quality. -
International TAM
Q: What is the international growth potential?
A: Management pointed to significant international opportunities—bolstered by partnerships with brands like Accor—while reaffirming that over 90% of revenue remains U.S.-based. -
Transaction Size
Q: Does larger transaction size alter financing?
A: They explained that bigger transactions result from measured price increases and strong customer engagement, with no change in financing behavior compared to historical trends. -
New Owner Mix
Q: Can new owner mix reach 35%?
A: While the current new owner mix is around 30%, management is confident that, with improved close rates and sustained performance, it will gradually move toward the long-term target of 35%. -
SI & New Projects Timing
Q: When do SI and related sales begin?
A: SI sales are set to start at the end of 2025 with the first resort opening in 2026, aligning with broader multi-year projects including new brand initiatives. -
Owner Demographics
Q: Do income disparities affect owner behavior?
A: Management noted that owners with higher incomes tend to perform better with lower delinquency rates, although they may prepay more quickly, confirming overall quality and balance in the customer base. -
New Owner Initiatives
Q: What is driving new owner conversion?
A: The focus is on leveraging partnerships and launching new brands across regions to enhance new owner conversion naturally, without forcing target percentages. -
Repeat vs. New Sales
Q: Was there a shift toward repeat sales?
A: Management made clear they did not tactically push for more repeat sales; the mix reflects the natural cadence of the business with consistent new owner acquisition efforts. -
SI Brand Financing
Q: What are the SI timing and financing details?
A: The Nashville SI resort is structured as a conversion property to match revenue timing, with Tuscaloosa now slated for 2027 and further project announcements forthcoming.
Research analysts covering Travel & Leisure.