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    Travel & Leisure (TNL)

    Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Feb 24, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$45.44Last close (Oct 22, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$47.25Open (Oct 23, 2024)
    Price Change
    $1.81(+3.98%)
    • Strong Financial Performance and Resilience: The company delivered adjusted EBITDA of $242 million with a 24.4% adjusted EBITDA margin, reflecting the resiliency of the business to overcome headwinds and produce consistent margins in the mid-20s. VPG performance remains strong and above expectations. ,
    • Growth from New Initiatives: The integration of Accor Vacation Club is ahead of schedule, with 4 sales galleries reopened and plans to open more. Accor has delivered more than $3 million in adjusted EBITDA year-to-date, and growth is expected to accelerate next year. Additionally, the new Sports Illustrated brand is anticipated to become a $300 million to $400 million business over the longer term. ,
    • Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns: The company returned $105 million to shareholders in the quarter through dividends and share buybacks, including $70 million of repurchases, buying back 2.25% of the outstanding shares, consistent with their average annual rate of about 10%. ,
    • Gross VOI sales came in below guidance, primarily due to weakness in key markets like Las Vegas, which may indicate underlying demand issues in important markets.
    • Potential increase in future cost of sales due to higher inventory costs as the mix of newly developed inventory becomes larger, which could pressure margins in the long term.
    • The company is considering higher down payment requirements, especially for customers with lower FICO scores, suggesting concerns about consumer credit quality and potentially impacting sales volumes.
    1. Credit Quality and FICO Scores
      Q: Will you lower FICO scores to boost volume?
      A: We are focused on maintaining higher FICO scores and are pleased with the credit quality we're generating. The portfolio is performing as expected, and we don't plan to lower FICO scores in the near term.

    2. Impact of Hurricanes on Financials
      Q: How did hurricanes affect your business?
      A: The hurricanes caused about $5 million in lost volume due to resort closures and affected tour impacts, but the financial impact was limited and didn't require a call-out. Our resorts sustained minimal damage, and the diversity of our locations helped mitigate the impact.

    3. Tour Volumes and Las Vegas Softness
      Q: What caused the softness in tour volumes?
      A: We experienced weaker new owner tour flow in Las Vegas, our second-largest market, due to a softer gaming market. However, we expect a reacceleration of tour growth in Q4, and overall consumer demand remains strong.

    4. Inventory Levels and Cost of VOIs
      Q: Will inventory costs increase over time?
      A: We have enough inventory for the next four years, and expect recapture levels to remain consistent. While cost of VOIs may increase slightly in the future, we anticipate offsetting this impact and maintaining margins through careful management of all aspects of the business.

    5. M&A Activity and Capital Return
      Q: What's your outlook on M&A and capital return?
      A: We continue to evaluate M&A opportunities but remain focused on returning capital to shareholders. In the absence of significant M&A, we've returned about $70 million in share buybacks and $30 million in dividends this quarter, totaling around $100 million in capital returned to shareholders.

    6. Accor Acquisition Progress
      Q: How is the Accor integration progressing?
      A: The integration of Accor is going well. We've reopened four sales galleries and achieved our modest targets ahead of schedule. We're pleased with the revenue synergies and plan to grow internationally by leveraging the brand, with opportunities for future development including conversions and new builds.

    7. Sales Force Execution
      Q: What's driving your sales force's strong execution?
      A: Our success is due to strong leadership and a talented sales force that adapts quickly to market changes. They focus on delivering value and satisfaction to our customers, resulting in higher close rates and customer retention. Our team sells without relying on price discounts and maintains a positive sales environment.

    8. Sports Illustrated Growth Plans
      Q: What's the long-term plan for Sports Illustrated?
      A: We aim to grow the Sports Illustrated brand into a $300 million to $400 million business over time, starting with annual growth of $25 million to $30 million. We expect it to contribute meaningfully in the future as we expand and build on our success with other brands.

    9. Close Rates and Consumer Demand
      Q: How are close rates and consumer demand trending?
      A: Close rates have remained steady and above pre-COVID levels. Consumer demand for our product remains strong, driven by the value, flexibility, and affordability we offer. Our retention rates are high, with 98% retention among owners who have fully paid off their timeshare loan.

    10. Weather Events Impact and Planning
      Q: How do weather events affect your business?
      A: Regular weather events like hurricanes impact us, but the financial effects are limited due to the diversity of our resort locations. Our properties sustained minimal damage, and we continue to mitigate risks through strong insurance programs and by accommodating guests at alternative locations when necessary.

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