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TM

TODOS MEDICAL LTD. (TOMDF)·Q1 2022 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • No standalone Q1 2022 earnings release or call transcript was found; the company furnished an Item 2.02 8‑K on April 1, 2022 with fourth-quarter and full-year 2021 results, showing Q4 revenue of $4.46M, net loss of $(18.77)M and diluted EPS of $(0.12) .
  • Operational momentum into year-end: PCR testing revenues accelerated at Provista; revenue per test averaged ~$80 with peak $250 in Q4, and management expects “revenues to continue to grow significantly in 2022” as the test menu expands .
  • Catalysts: acquisition of NLC Pharma’s 3CL protease assets (forming 3CL Pharma), positive Tollovir Phase 2a data with superiority vs SOC, and planned EUA submission in Greece .
  • Balance sheet constraints remain significant: cash was $0.189M at 12/31/21 with shareholder deficit of $(24.21)M and $25.41M of convertible bridge loans .
  • Wall Street consensus estimates via S&P Global for Q1 2022 were unavailable; comparisons to estimates cannot be made (S&P Global data unavailable).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Positive Tollovir Phase 2a endpoints in hospitalized COVID-19: “showing superiority to the current standard of care of Remdesivir + dexamethasone,” positioning for Phase 2b/3 and an initial EUA submission in Greece .
  • Provista PCR business scaled with improving economics: “Revenue per test was up to $250 with average of approximately $80 per test,” and management expects revenues to grow significantly in 2022 as the menu expands to respiratory, STIs, UTI, GI, cancer genetics and pharmacogenomics .
  • Strategic consolidation: “completed the acquisition of the 3CL protease assets of NLC Pharma that positions us as the majority owner of 3CL Pharma Ltd.” to advance antivirals, supplements, and diagnostics (Tollovir, Tollovid, Tollovid Daily, TolloTest) .

What Went Wrong

  • Losses widened materially in Q4: net loss was $(18.77)M vs $(4.52)M prior-year, driven largely by financing-related derivative liability (non-cash), with operating loss increasing to $(3.59)M vs $(1.11)M prior-year; unpaid accounts receivable contributed to operating loss and are “being pursued legally” .
  • Liquidity highly constrained at year-end: cash $0.189M, with shareholder deficit of $(24.21)M and sizable convertible bridge loans and bifurcated convertible features on the balance sheet .
  • Revenue mix volatility persists: Q3 2021 revenues fell to $1.01M due to a shift away from equipment to reagents in distribution; recovery relies on Provista testing ramp and menu expansion .

Financial Results

Note: The company did not furnish a separate Q1 2022 results release or 6‑K; the most recent item 2.02 filing (April 1, 2022) reported Q4 2021 and FY 2021. Prior two quarters are presented for trend.

MetricQ3 2021Q4 2021
Revenue ($USD Millions)$1.01 $4.46
Operating Loss ($USD Millions)$(2.50) $(3.59)
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(10.38) $(18.77)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.02) $(0.12)

Segment breakdown: Not disclosed. Management highlighted two primary commercial channels—Corona Diagnostics (distribution) vs. Provista (lab services)—with commentary that future growth will be driven by Provista’s testing services menu expansion .

KPIs

KPIQ3 2021Q4 2021
Provista lab daily capacity20,000+ PCR; 5,000 variant; 2,500+ RPP; 1,500+ cPass
Revenue per test (avg; max)Avg ~$80; up to $250
Cash and equivalents ($USD Millions)$0.166 $0.189

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
COVID-19 testing revenuesFY 2022“expects revenues to continue to grow significantly in 2022” New
Videssa breast cancer test launchEarly 2023“launch of our Videssa breast cancer blood test in early 2023” New
Tollovir regulatoryNear-term (Greece)“initial focus on an EUA submission in Greece” New
Capital marketsQ2 2022“expects to file initial public offering documents… in the 2nd quarter of 2022” New

No quantitative ranges were provided for revenue, margins, OpEx, tax rate, or dividends in the period reviewed .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

No Q1 2022 earnings call transcript was identified. Themes are drawn from Q3 2021 and the April 1, 2022 item 2.02 press release.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2021)Previous Mentions (Q4 2021)Current Period (Q1 2022)Trend
COVID testing scale & pricingAutomation complete; capacity outlined; shift from distribution to higher-margin lab testing Strong Q4 testing growth; avg ~$80/test; up to $250/test Expect significant revenue growth in 2022 as menu expands Strengthening
Tollovir clinical/regulatoryOngoing randomized Phase 2; interim readout expected Positive Phase 2a endpoints; superiority vs SOC Planning Phase 2b/3; initial EUA in Greece Advancing
Supplements (Tollovid)Amazon/Alibaba authorization for Tollovid/Tollovid Daily Paused Tollovid Daily sales to minimize confusion; market research ongoing; brand ambassador named Pursuing OTC drug strategy for acute/Long COVID/pediatrics Strategic repositioning
Oncology diagnostics (Videssa)Preparing analytical/clinical performance studies; US relaunch plans Targeting 2022 study; 2023 commercialization Launch targeted early 2023 On track
Neuro diagnostics (LymPro)Second stage clinical trial; H1 2022 readout Readout expected H1 2022 Pending catalyst
Capital markets/uplistingPlanned uplisting strategy Positioning for national exchange; IPO docs in Q2 2022 Intends to file IPO docs Q2 2022 Ongoing

Management Commentary

  • “2021 was a strong year for Todos Medical and we believe sets the stage for an even stronger year of growth in 2022.” – Gerald E. Commissiong, President & CEO .
  • “We had positive results from the Tollovir Phase 2a clinical trial in hospitalized COVID-19 patients, showing superiority to the current standard of care of Remdesivir + dexamethasone…” – Gerald E. Commissiong .
  • “We expect a surge… with the automation at Provista complete, we expect to capture a greater percentage of our future business from our own testing lab rather than through distribution.” – Daniel Hirsch, CFO (Q3 2021) .
  • “The fourth quarter of 2021 saw strong growth in the Provista COVID testing business and the Company expects revenues to continue to grow significantly in 2022…” .

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q1 2022 earnings call transcript was available; therefore, no analyst Q&A or guidance clarifications were identified for the period [SearchDocuments returned none in Q1 2022 for TOMDF].

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus estimates via S&P Global for Q1 2022 were unavailable for TOMDF; as a result, we cannot assess beats/misses versus consensus for the quarter (S&P Global data unavailable).

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue trajectory into 2022 is tied to continued COVID testing demand and rapid menu expansion at Provista; Q4 revenue stepped up to $4.46M with improved economics per test (avg ~$80; up to $250) .
  • Clinical/regulatory catalysts are central to the equity story: Tollovir’s positive Phase 2a signal and planned EUA in Greece, alongside Phase 2b/3 preparations, could be stock-moving events .
  • Product pipeline breadth (Tollovid OTC strategy for acute/Long COVID; Videssa early 2023 launch; LymPro H1 2022 readout) provides multiple shots on goal beyond COVID testing .
  • Balance sheet and financing structure are risk factors: minimal cash ($0.189M), material convertible debt and shareholder deficit underscore funding needs and potential dilution risk ahead of the intended IPO/uplisting .
  • With no Q1 2022 estimates available and no call transcript, near-term trading is likely to be driven by regulatory announcements, lab contract wins, and menu expansion updates rather than consensus beats/misses (S&P Global data unavailable).
  • Focus diligence on receivables collection (noted legal pursuit) and gross margin progression as the mix shifts to lab services; these will influence sustainability of revenue scale and path to operating breakeven .
  • Monitor execution milestones: filing of IPO documents in Q2 2022, Tollovir EUA, and Videssa study initiation; timely delivery on these items would support the medium-term thesis .