TPL Q1 2025: forecasts 10-year water volume surge as cuts hit 10:1
- Robust Produced Water Growth: TPL is positioned to benefit from rising produced water volumes as operators shift to deeper, more water-wet formations—with water cuts as high as 10:1 on some pads—driving increased demand for enhanced water handling and beneficial reuse solutions.
- Pipeline and Fee Revenue Upside: The progression of key pipeline projects (e.g., Western Pathfinder) is expected to generate direct payment on existing and new barrels, reinforcing TPL’s revenue streams and offsetting potential production challenges.
- Attractive M&A Climate: A friendly M&A environment with ample opportunities, despite potential commodity price pressures, could foster accretive transactions and enhance TPL’s mineral and surface asset portfolio, supporting long-term shareholder value.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
---|---|---|
Total Revenue | Up 12.5% (from $174.1M to $196.0M) | Higher overall revenues in Q1 2025 were driven by significant improvements in key revenue drivers—especially oil and gas royalties and produced water royalties—compared to Q1 2024, which built on past increases in production volumes and improved pricing mixes. |
Land and Resource Management Revenue | Up 13.5% (from $111.5M to $126.6M) | Increased performance in this segment is mainly from the enhanced oil and gas royalty revenues, reflecting higher production volumes relative to the previous period, which built on strong trends from earlier quarters. |
Oil and Gas Royalties | Up 20.7% (from $92.1M to $111.2M) | A substantial increase is observed due to a marked rise in production volumes and improved realized prices for natural gas and NGLs, which more than offset declines in oil prices compared to Q1 2024. |
Produced Water Royalties | Up 20.4% (from $23.0M to $27.7M) | Higher produced water volumes in Q1 2025 contributed to a significant revenue boost, reinforcing the gains seen in previous periods where increased water volumes were a primary driver. |
Water Services and Operations Revenue | Up 10.7% (from $62.7M to $69.4M) | Improvements in water sales and related services, such as increased temporary permits and higher water sales volumes, drove this moderate growth relative to Q1 2024, building on consistent volume gains from prior periods. |
Operating Income | Up 10.5% (from $136.04M to $150.07M) | Operating income increased due to robust revenue growth—primarily from oil and gas royalties—and relatively controlled operating expenses, a trend that continued from the previous period's performance. |
Net Income | Up 5.4% (from $114.42M to $120.65M) | Net income growth was more modest compared to revenue and operating income increases, reflecting that while revenues improved from key segments, higher operating and non-operating expenses tempered overall profitability increases relative to Q1 2024. |
Basic EPS | Up 5.1% (from $4.97 to $5.25) | A rise in Basic EPS was driven by the increase in net income combined with a slight reduction in the weighted average shares outstanding, continuing the improved profitability trends seen in previous periods. |
Operating Cash Flow | Up nearly 47% (from $106.55M to $156.73M) | A significant surge in operating cash flow was achieved through higher operating income and favorable working capital adjustments, demonstrating more efficient cash conversion in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend | FY 2025 | $1.60 per share, 37% YoY increase | No guidance provided | no current guidance |
Capital Expenditures (CapEx) | FY 2025 | $65 million to $75 million | No guidance provided | no current guidance |
Oil and Gas Royalties | FY 2025 | 14 to 15 net wells to be turned in line during FY 2025 | No guidance provided | no current guidance |
Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend | Q1 2025 | $1.60 per share | $1.60 per share | Met |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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Produced Water Growth and Commercialization | Consistently discussed in Q2–Q4 2024 with emphasis on increased produced water royalty volumes, testing of a 10,000 barrel-per-day desalination facility (Phase IIb), and multiple beneficial reuse initiatives | Emphasized in Q1 2025 with additional focus on rapid growth driven by high water cuts (up to 10:1) from deeper, water‐wet formations, strategic pipeline projects, and the progressing Phase IIb desalination unit | Consistent focus with a new layer on formation characteristics driving growth. |
M&A and Asset Consolidation Strategies | Highlighted in Q2–Q4 2024 through strategic acquisitions that boosted production, enhanced asset quality and well inventory, and showcased a favorable environment for consolidating Permian assets | Remains a core focus in Q1 2025 with optimism about abundant deal opportunities (backlog) tempered by caution over potential bid‐ask spread widening if oil prices decline | Ongoing bullish sentiment with minor caution in a softer commodity backdrop. |
Stable Production Pipeline and Royalty Revenue Development | Detailed in Q2–Q4 2024 with record well inventories, consistent royalty production increases, and robust line‐of‐sight reserves across various operational metrics | In Q1 2025, reinforced by record near-term well inventories and resilient royalty output despite commodity volatility | Steady operational strength maintained across periods. |
Pipeline Fee Revenue Upside | Not mentioned in Q2–Q4 2024 discussions. | Introduced in Q1 2025 as a significant new revenue front through key projects (e.g., Western Pathfinder) that will generate fee income on both existing and new barrels | New topic emerging with potential high future impact on revenue streams. |
Deep, Water-Wet Formations (High Water Cuts) | No prior mention regarding production from deep, water‐wet formations driving high water cuts. | Q1 2025 introduces this focus as operators shift to second and third-tier formations, resulting in water-to-oil ratios as high as 10:1, which is expected to boost produced water volumes over the next decade | New focus likely to reshape produced water management and drive future growth. |
Non-Oil Diversification Initiatives | Actively pursued in Q3 and Q4 2024 with robust developments in solar, battery projects, data centers, and Bitcoin mining, highlighting the company’s efforts to capitalize on the Permian’s non-hydrocarbon opportunities | Q1 2025 reaffirms commitment to these initiatives, including progress in power and data center opportunities tied to grid infrastructure and desalination synergies | Consistent cross-period commitment with no reduction in emphasis. |
Produced Water Disposal and Desalination Risks | In Q3 and Q4 2024, detailed discussion of regulatory uncertainties, high cost challenges (e.g. expensive deeper disposal in Mexico), and execution complexities related to desalination projects. Q2 2024 also mentioned progress with permits and testing | In Q1 2025, while the company outlines ongoing investments (e.g., Phase IIb unit) to address disposal and treatment needs, explicit high-impact risk language is less prominent, suggesting either matured processes or a more optimistic outlook | Previously prominent challenges now less emphasized, indicating improved processes or a matured project outlook. |
Commodity and Oil Price Volatility Risks | Across Q2–Q4 2024, volatility was acknowledged through discussions of weak natural gas prices, lower realized oil and gas prices affecting overall results, and the inherent exposure of commodity-sensitive revenue streams | Q1 2025 continues to recognize commodity and oil price volatility risks, but highlights operator resilience (supermajors and large independents), a strong cash position, and diversified revenue streams that help mitigate these risks | Persistent risk factor with robust mitigation strategies reaffirmed in the current period. |
Strategic Asset Acquisitions and Favorable M&A Climate | Emphasized in Q3 and Q4 2024 with strategic acquisitions delivering unit uplift in production and a clear market advantage from consolidating high-quality assets, reinforcing long-term value creation | In Q1 2025, the focus persists on the long-term benefits of asset acquisitions with optimism about further deals, though with an eye on the potential impact of declining commodity prices on transaction spreads | Long-term positive outlook remains steady, supporting overall growth despite minor near-term caution. |
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Water Growth
Q: What are produced water trends observed?
A: Management noted that operators are experiencing higher water cuts—at times up to 10:1—as they move into deeper, water-wet formations, and they expect produced water volumes to grow significantly over the next 10 years. -
Pipeline Impact
Q: How do pipeline projects benefit TPL?
A: Management explained that major pipeline projects, such as the Western Pathfinder, will benefit TPL by providing payments on both existing and new barrels, enhancing their revenue streams. -
M&A Landscape
Q: What is the current deal environment in the basin?
A: Management observed that while a decrease in commodity prices might widen bid-ask spreads, the overall M&A environment remains friendly with ample opportunities in their backlog.
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