Executive Summary

Q1 2025 delivered $22.5M total investment and other income and $10.7M net investment income (NII), equating to $0.27 per share; net assets increased $12.7M ($0.32/share) on realized gains, but both revenue and EPS were below Street consensus, primarily due to a smaller average debt portfolio and lower base rates reducing yields .
Weighted average portfolio yield on debt investments was 14.4% (vs 15.8% in Q4’24 and 15.4% in Q1’24); originations carried a 13.3% yield. Liquidity ended at $336.7M, gross leverage at 1.10x, and NAV per share at $8.62; DBRS reaffirmed BBB (low) with a stable outlook .
Management reiterated H1 fundings guidance of $25–$50M per quarter and expects limited-to-no incentive fee expense in 2025; regular dividend of $0.30/share declared for Q2, supported by $42.5M spillover income .
Near-term stock narrative catalysts: estimate miss and yield compression vs prior quarters, offset by increased term sheets/commitments in AI and enterprise software, reaffirmed IG rating, and visible funding momentum into Q2 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Signed $315.4M of term sheets (second consecutive $300M+ quarter), $76.5M of new debt commitments, and $27.7M funded at a 13.3% origination yield; management highlighted multi-year highs and strong demand in AI and enterprise software .
Realized $2.3M gains from the secondary sale in Revolut; remaining warrants/equity fair value $34.4M, with Revolut reporting strong 2024 financials per call remarks .
Credit quality stable-to-improving: weighted investment ranking improved to 2.12; no new watchlist additions; one upgrade (Outfittery to Category 2) tied to merger and loan extension .

What Went Wrong

Investment income and EPS missed consensus; total investment and other income fell YoY on a smaller average portfolio and lower Prime-rate-driven yields; portfolio yield declined to 14.4% from 15.8% in Q4 .
NII/share declined to $0.27 vs $0.41 in Q1’24, reflecting lower portfolio yields and less prepayment income; operating expenses $11.7M vs $13.8M in Q1’24 (lower, but not offsetting revenue decline) .
Analyst concerns on capital allocation: multiple Q&A pressed buybacks vs portfolio growth given discount to NAV and high dividend yield; management prioritized deployment, diversification, and leverage toward target range over repurchases .

Financial Results

Income Statement and Yield (prior year and sequential comparison)

Metric	Q1 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Total Investment & Other Income ($USD)	$29.273M	$26.515M	$25.754M	$22.454M
Net Investment Income ($USD)	$15.523M	$13.785M	$12.636M	$10.738M
NII per Share ($)	$0.41	$0.35	$0.32	$0.27
Net Increase in Net Assets per Share ($)	$0.21	$0.57	$(0.18)	$0.32
Operating Expenses ($USD)	$13.750M	$12.730M	$13.118M	$11.716M
Weighted Avg Portfolio Yield on Debt (%)	15.4%	15.7%	15.8%	14.4%

KPIs and Balance Sheet (sequential comparison)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
New Debt Commitments ($)	$41.0M	$72.0M	$76.5M
Funded Debt Investments ($)	$33.0M	$49.9M	$27.7M
Origination Yield (%)	13.4%	13.5%	13.3%
Principal Prepayments & Early Repayments ($)	$35.739M	$61.289M	$17.782M
Scheduled Principal Amortization ($)	$4.618M	$15.687M	$9.881M
Weighted Avg Portfolio Yield (%)	15.7%	15.8%	14.4%
Liquidity ($)	$338.6M	$373.7M	$336.7M
Unfunded Commitments ($)	$74.0M	$104.5M	$116.8M
Gross Leverage (x)	1.11x	1.16x	1.10x
NAV per Share ($)	$9.10	$8.61	$8.62
Weighted Investment Ranking	2.17	2.17	2.12

Consensus vs Actuals (Q1 2025)

Metric	Actual	Consensus	Surprise
EPS ($)	$0.27	$0.3051*	$(0.0351)*
Revenue ($USD)	$22.454M	$24.896M*	$(2.442M)*
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global (SPGI) via analyst consensus.

Drivers of miss: lower average principal outstanding and lower yields due to Prime rate reductions and less accelerated prepayment income in the quarter .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Quarterly Fundings	H1 2025	$25–$50M per quarter (Q4 call)	Unchanged; Q2 expected to make up Q1 shortfall	Maintained
Prepayments	2025	1–2 per quarter (Q4 call)	1–2 per quarter; mainly older vintages; minimal NII impact	Maintained
Incentive Fee Expense	2025	Waiver framework if needed to cover dividend (Q3 call)	Limited-to-no incentive fee expense expected	Clarified lower expense
Leverage Target	Ongoing	1.3x–1.4x	1.3x–1.4x; prefer portfolio growth over buybacks	Maintained
Dividend	Q2 2025	$0.30/share in Q1 2025	$0.30/share payable June 30, 2025	Maintained

No explicit revenue, margin, OpEx, OI&E, or tax-rate guidance was issued in Q1 2025 materials .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
AI/Technology Initiatives	Focus on AI, verticalized software, aerospace/defense; strong warrant/equity marks (Revolut)	Sector rotation toward AI and enterprise software; new borrowers (TetraScience, ThoughtSpot); AI demand seen as multi-year mega trend	Increasing emphasis and deployment
Supply Chain/Tariffs	Not a major theme in Q3/Q4	Monitoring potential tariff exposure in a small handful of consumer/e-commerce names; no material impact seen to-date; mitigation via sourcing/pricing	Newly introduced risk; currently contained
Macro/Capital Markets	Recovery uneven; building liquidity for eventual improvement	IPO/M&A viewed closed near-term; demand for venture lending rising; expect portfolio growth in 2025	Improving demand despite macro volatility
Credit Quality	Watchlist stable; nonaccruals reduced; upgrades in Q3	No new watchlist additions; one upgrade; weighted investment ranking improved to 2.12	Gradual improvement
Portfolio Growth & Leverage	Managed down leverage in 2024; positioned to grow	Prioritizing deployment to reach target leverage range over buybacks; substantial liquidity and borrowing base	Growth-first stance
Dividend Coverage/Incentives	Adviser 2025 incentive fee waiver announced in Q3	Expect limited-to-no incentive fee expense; sizable spillover income maintained	Coverage support maintained
Prepayments	Elevated in Q3/Q4; guidance of ~1/quarter	1–2 per quarter expected; older vintages; low NII impact	Normalizing lower impact
Equity/Warrants	Revolut secondary and valuation uplift in Q3/Q4	$2.3M realized gain; $34.4M remaining fair value in Revolut; highlights potential upside	Active monetization with remaining optionality

Management Commentary

“We continue to capitalize on attractive lending opportunities… we are seeing strong demand from companies in the sectors that we are focused on, such as AI and enterprise software, and are pleased that signed term sheet sheets at TPC and closed debt commitments at TPVG remain at multi-year highs.” — CEO Jim Labe .
“Our outlook for the first half of the year is $25–$50 million a quarter… we think we’ll make up the shortfall for Q1 here in Q2.” — President & CIO Sajal Srivastava .
“Given the pipeline and the line of sight… we can increase our leverage organically through deployment and it’s going to help achieve our objectives of portfolio diversification… and growing NII.” — President & CIO Sajal Srivastava on buybacks vs deployment .
“Total investment income was $22.5 million with a portfolio yield of 14.4%… the lower portfolio yield reflected the impact of prime rate reduction and less accelerated prepayment income in the quarter.” — CFO Mike Wilhelms .

Q&A Highlights

Fundings outlook: Management reaffirmed $25–$50M per quarter for H1; Q2 fundings already >$50M early in the quarter .
Capital allocation: Multiple analysts pressed on buybacks; management prefers portfolio growth via debt capital to reach target leverage and diversify obligors/sector exposure .
Prepayments: Expect 1–2 per quarter, mainly older vintages; limited NII impact .
Revolut: Participated in controlled secondary; ~$2.3M realized gain; marks generally in line; remaining exposure at $34.4M fair value .
Rate floors: ~62% floating; ~35% at floors, mitigating yield declines from rate cuts .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025 EPS: $0.27 vs $0.3051 consensus (8 estimates) — miss of $(0.0351); Revenue: $22.454M vs $24.896M consensus (7 estimates) — miss of $(2.442M). Primary drivers: smaller average debt portfolio, lower Prime-rate-driven yields, and reduced prepayment income vs prior periods .
Post-quarter narrative likely shifts Street models toward slightly lower portfolio yield assumptions and cautious NII trajectory until scale increases; management’s visible fundings and leverage plan may offset with higher asset growth into H2’25 .
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global (SPGI).

Key Takeaways for Investors

Near-term: The quarter was softer vs consensus on revenue/EPS; expect model adjustments to lower yields/fees and emphasize deployment pace; watch Q2 fundings follow-through and any prepayment volatility .
Medium-term: Increased term sheets/commitments in AI and enterprise software plus reaffirmed IG rating support portfolio growth, diversification, and improved earning power through 2025 .
Dividend: $0.30/share maintained with sizable spillover ($1.06/share); incentive fees expected limited-to-none, aiding coverage as scale rebuilds .
Credit: Stable-to-improving metrics (2.12 weighted ranking, no new watchlist names); monitor consumer/e-commerce tariff exposure, though currently immaterial .
Capital allocation: Management prioritizes organic leverage via deployment over buybacks; strong liquidity ($336.7M) and borrowing base ($124M available) enable growth without immediate equity issuance .
Equity optionality: Revolut and other warrant/equity positions continue to provide potential upside as secondary/exit markets reopen; realized gains already contributing .

Additional materials read:

Q1 2025 press release and financial statements .
Q1 2025 earnings call transcripts – – –.
DBRS rating reaffirmation press release .
Prior quarter press releases and calls: Q4 2024 – – –; Q3 2024 – –.

TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. (TPVG)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary