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TG

Track Group, Inc. (TRCK)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 FY25 revenue was $8.67M, down 3.3% year over year; operating income improved to $0.13M on lower monitoring center costs, but a $1.50M FX loss drove GAAP net loss to ($2.01M) and EPS ($0.17) .
  • Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA was $1.25M (14.4% margin), up vs Q1 FY24 ($1.06M), but down sequentially vs Q4 FY24 ($1.97M; 20.2% margin) as FX and interest expense weighed on profitability .
  • Guidance maintained: FY25 revenue $35–$36M and Adjusted EBITDA margin 14–15%; management cites pipeline and cost discipline after the Chile divestiture .
  • Narrative catalysts: domestic gross margin strength (51%), Chile sale completed, FX volatility and rising facility interest rate (5% in FY25) could drive estimate revisions and sentiment near-term .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Gross margin expanded to ~51% on lower monitoring center costs; operating income swung to $0.13M from a loss YoY .
    • Management completed sale of Chile subsidiary; cash ended at $3.74M, with improved working capital QoQ; CEO: “poised for continued success in fiscal year 2025” .
    • Adjusted EBITDA up YoY to $1.25M (14.4% margin) on higher gross profit and lower OpEx vs prior year .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Revenue declined 3.3% YoY to $8.67M, with lower monitored offender counts at Michigan and Virginia and Chile impact .
    • FX swung to a $1.50M loss vs prior year gain, and interest expense rose on the escalator in the Conrent facility, pressuring GAAP earnings .
    • Product sales fell 22% YoY to $0.23M on weaker international sales (Brazil), partly offset by Chile device sales post-divestiture .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 FY24Q4 FY24Q1 FY25
Revenue ($USD Millions)$9.19 n/a$8.67
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$4.27 n/a$4.42
Gross Profit Margin %46% n/a51%
Operating Income ($USD Millions)($0.52) n/a$0.13
Net Income ($USD Millions)($0.87) n/a($2.01)
Diluted EPS ($USD)($0.07) n/a($0.17)

Non-GAAP KPIs

MetricQ3 FY24Q4 FY24Q1 FY25
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$1.58 $1.97 $1.25
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %17.1% 20.2% 14.4%
Non-GAAP EPS ($USD)$0.13 $0.17 $0.11

Segment/Revenue Mix

Revenue MixQ1 FY25 ($USD)Q1 FY24 ($USD)
Monitoring & Related Services$8,441,307 $8,674,485
Product Sales & Other$227,021 $292,487
Total Revenue$8,668,328 $8,966,972

Geography (Q1 FY25)

RegionRevenue ($USD)% of Total
United States$6,473,657 75%
Latin America$1,973,054 23%
Other (Canada)$221,617 2%

Balance Sheet KPIs (Quarter-End)

MetricSep 30, 2024Dec 31, 2024
Cash$3.57M $3.74M
Accounts Receivable (net)$4.43M $5.32M
Inventory (net)$0.58M $0.81M
Long-Term Debt (net)$42.64M $42.66M

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY 2025$35M – $36M $35M – $36M Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA MarginFY 202514% – 15% 14% – 15% Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: No Q1 FY25 earnings call transcript was available; themes reflect 10‑Q and press releases.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 FY24 and Q4 FY24)Current Period (Q1 FY25)Trend
Chile program/assetSettlement and performance bond return; impairment at FY24; preparing divestiture Chile subsidiary sold; $66k loss on sale; Latin America revenue mix reflects transition De-risking, partner-led model
Foreign exchange (FX)Large FX loss Q3 FY24 vs prior; currency exposure highlighted FX loss of ($1.50M) vs prior-year gain; cited as main driver of GAAP loss Adverse volatility
Cost efficiencyGross profit up; lower monitoring center/comm costs Q3 FY24 Lower monitoring center costs drove gross margin to ~51% Improving
Debt/interestConrent facility extended to 2027; escalator rates disclosed Interest owed $1.10M; rate stepped to 5% in FY25; interest expense up Rising burden
Supply chainImproving lead times noted Lead times improved to industry norms Improving
Technology/R&DSteady investment R&D $0.67M; continued PaaS roadmap and apps Steady
Legal/regulatoryPuerto Rico case stayed; Barnes case ongoing Legal matters unchanged; no accruals Stable

Management Commentary

  • “The quarter ending December 31, 2024 showed increases in gross profit, operating income and Adjusted EBITDA… poised for continued success in fiscal year 2025.” — CEO Derek Cassell .
  • Business outlook reiterated: FY25 revenue $35–36M; Adjusted EBITDA margin 14–15% .
  • Revenue declines tied to fewer monitored individuals in Michigan and Virginia and Chile divestiture; offsets from Illinois, Puerto Rico and Bahamas .

Q&A Highlights

No Q1 FY25 earnings call transcript was available to extract Q&A themes (company filed press release and 10‑Q only) .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus EPS and revenue estimates for Q1 FY25 were unavailable at time of analysis due to data access limits; therefore, comparison to Street was not possible. Default source for estimates would be S&P Global (Capital IQ), but values could not be retrieved.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Gross margin resilience (51%) and OpEx discipline turned operating income positive despite top-line decline; watch sustainability as FX and interest costs persist .
  • Guidance maintained (revenue $35–$36M; EBITDA margin 14–15%), signaling confidence in pipeline and legacy program utilization post-Chile sale .
  • FX sensitivity is the primary GAAP earnings swing factor; a normalization could materially improve reported EPS without operational changes .
  • Facility interest step-up (5% in FY25, rising thereafter) raises carry costs; deleveraging or refinancing optionality would be a key medium-term catalyst .
  • Geographic mix tilted to U.S. (75% of revenue); Latin America share should evolve under partner-led Chile model; monitor Michigan/Virginia volumes vs Illinois/Puerto Rico/Bahamas offsets .
  • Non-GAAP EBITDA remains healthy YoY, but sequential margin compression vs Q4 underscores FX/interest headwinds; focus on cash conversion and working capital (AR build QoQ) .
  • With no Street comparison available, near-term reactions hinge on margin trajectory, FX prints, and any updates on debt strategy or new contract awards .
Notes:
- All data are from company filings and press releases cited inline. Non-GAAP metrics (Adjusted EBITDA, Non-GAAP EPS) are presented as reported and reconciled in company materials **[1045942_0001437749-25-003117_ex_775316.htm:4]** **[1045942_516b252ad826430692d2c28977df7782_5]** **[1045942_93559552d5cf4109ad19b94b66da318b_5]**.