TORM - Q1 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the TORM First Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star followed by one. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I will now hand today's call over to Mikael Larsen. Please go ahead.

Mikael Larsen (Head of Investor Relations)

Thank you for joining us today, and welcome to the TORM First Quarter of 2024 Earnings Conference Call. On the call with me today are, as usual, Jacob Meldgaard, our CEO and Executive Director, and Kim Balle, our CFO. This morning we released our company announcement for our result for the first quarter of the year. The information discussed in this call is based on information as of today and may include forward-looking statements that involve risk and uncertainty. Thus, as always, I would like to draw your attention to the Safe Harbor statement on slide two. Today's call will be recorded and available for replay later at our website, TORM.com. As usual, we will start with a short presentation followed by a Q&A session where we will be happy to answer any questions that you may have for us.

Now I'd like to introduce our CEO, Jacob Meldgaard, who will kick off on slide 4.

Jacob Meldgaard (CEO and Executive Director)

Well, thank you, Mikael. And of course, thank you everybody for joining us on our call today. I am pleased to report that, again, this quarter, TORM achieved a strong financial performance with TCE of $331 million and an EBITDA of $266 million. The fundamentals that have been supporting the positive rate environment for some time now does remain intact, and thus we continue to see increased global demand for transportation of refined oil products and, similarly, only limited fleet growth. In addition, attacks in the Red Sea have led to rerouting of vessels and thereby added further to the tonne-mile demand. Over the course of the previous quarters, we have both acquired additional second-hand vessels and divested some of our oldest vessels, and thereby both renewing and adding to our total fleet capacity.

In the first quarter, we have divested one of our older MR vessels, and after delivering this to the new owners, we will have a fleet size of 89 vessels. Thus, we have increased the size of our fleet compared to the same quarter last year, and on top of this, we have increased our exposure to the long-haul segment. Further, on a separate note, I would like to draw your attention to the strength of the current market. Here in April, we have obtained a 3-year time charter at $30,000 for a 2012-built MR, and we have divested a 2006-built MR for $22 million, both transactions underlying that there is a strong demand in the market. Ultimately, we believe this will put us in a strong position for further adding to our value creation over the coming years.

Not forgetting our shareholders, based on the profit and the very strong cash generation from our business, we have today declared a dividend for the quarter of $1.50 per share, thus adding to the positive dividend flow seen over the recent quarters. Again, I believe that we have found the right balance between investing in growth and rewarding our shareholders. Here, kindly turn to slide 5. In the past two years, the product tanker market has seen great volatility, mainly driven by geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East. On top of supporting fundamental market drivers, these geopolitical factors have increased product tanker rates to new higher average levels. Please turn to slide 6.

In essence, the geopolitical tensions that we have seen in the past two years, first in Europe and lately in the Middle East, have reshaped product tanker trade flows towards longer distances, all while overall trade volumes have risen, supported by increasing oil demand and changes in refinery landscape. The sanctions against Russia that were officially introduced in early 2023 led to a trade rerouting towards longer-haul trade for both European imports but also for Russian exports. Lately, we have witnessed an increased willingness in the EU to up the game on sanctions on Russia, including on Russian oil and potentially gas exports. This year, the product tanker market has been strongly affected by the Houthi attacks against commercial vessels at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The attacks have similarly led to trade being redirected towards longer trading distances.

Recent geopolitical events have shown that the disruptions in the product tanker market can be longer-lived than initially thought, and it may take longer time before the Red Sea is deemed safe for transit. While the Red Sea situation is very dynamic, the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel suggests that the timeline for disruption continues to be drawn out. Now, please turn to slide 7 for a closer look at the market developments here in the first quarter of 2024. In the first quarter of this year, trade volumes with refined oil products have increased by 4% compared to the same quarter last year, supported by strong market fundamentals. On top of generally higher trade volumes, also trading distances have become longer.

The share of global clean petroleum product trade transiting the Suez Canal has declined from 12% to only 4%, meaning 8% of the global trade has been redirected, with the majority of this going a longer route around Cape of Good Hope instead. This has led to an overall increase in tonne-mile demand for product tankers. So far here in the second quarter of the year, trade volumes have followed a seasonally weaker trend, yet volumes continue to travel longer. For the rest of this year, TORM expects both seasonality and volatility with continued market disruptions keeping trade distances longer. And now here, I'll kindly ask you to turn to the next slide, to slide 8, please. Let me also touch upon the more fundamental market drivers. In recent years, new refining capacity has been added in net exporting regions such as the Middle East.

On the other hand, a number of refineries have been closed in net importing regions. This has led to higher trade volumes and higher demand for product tankers. Some of this effect is yet to come. A good example here is new refineries in the Middle East, where full impact on the region's refinery runs is first expected in the second half of this year. This will boost the region's export, with a portion of this likely to travel around Cape of Good Hope, supporting further tonne-mile development. An exception to this positive refinery dislocation story is the Dangote refinery in Nigeria, which will potentially replace the country's gasoline import with domestic supply. After some delays, the refinery has started initial runs.

To the contrary of expectations, we have seen in this ramp-up phase emerging exports of naphtha and gas oil from the refinery going to Europe, Far East, and Brazil. We nevertheless expect some time before the refinery reaches full capacity. Its future gasoline production is set to stay in the domestic market, while a fair share of its distillate supply may cater for the shortages in the wider West African region. If we look further into the future, we believe that the refinery dislocation story might not be over yet. The risk of refinery closures in some of the main importing regions is still quite high. Already mentioned, Dangote Refinery, for example, is likely to put further pressure on the European refinery sector, as West Africa is today one of the main markets for European gasoline.

Any potential capacity rationalization in Europe could, in turn, increase the need for diesel imports. Please turn to slide 9 for an update on the supply drivers. Here, after years of subdued newbuilding activity, product tanker ordering at LRs has picked up, and currently the order book stands at 15% of the fleet. This is up 3 percentage points since last quarter. However, what is important to mention here is that the current order book is spread across 4 years, translating into a 3%-4% growth rate on an annualized basis. Despite increased ordering, our long-term view on tonnage supply remains unchanged. If we look at the share of fleet at above 20 years old, which are the candidates for scrapping within the next 5 years, we see that the fleet growth will be relatively balanced.

The aging product tanker fleet means that the net fleet growth could even turn negative in the second half of this decade. Should a strong freight market result in less-than-expected scrapping activity, we still expect older vessels to leave the mainstream market and go into sanctioned or into cabotage trades. As we have pointed to earlier, newbuilding activity has largely concentrated around the LR2 segment. But given the versatility of the LR2 fleet, which can trade both clean and dirty products, the LR2 order book should be seen in connection with the dirty Aframax order book. The combined order book is currently at 14%, which compares with 16% of the combined fleet being candidates for recycling. And now, please turn to the next slide. Please turn to slide 10.

To conclude these remarks on the product tanker mile, we expect the main demand and supply drivers on the product tanker mile to continue to be supported. The global product tanker demand in terms of tonne-mile increased last year by 8%, mainly driven by trade recalibration due to sanctions against Russia. We estimate that the Red Sea disruption can add a further 5% to tonne-mile, with an additional upside from potentially longer ballast patterns via the Cape route. On the other hand, net fleet growth is much more limited. Last year, we saw a large number of LR2 vessels moving into the dirty market. So far this year, we've seen an increased number of LR2s cleaning up.

But even in case of a potential large-scale net migration back to the clean trade, our calculations show that the product tanker demand-supply balance will remain at a much firmer footing than before the geopolitical tensions started. Now, with these comments, I'll now conclude my part of the presentation. I'll hand it over to my colleague, Kim, who will walk us through the financials.

Kim Balle (CFO)

Thank you, Jacob. Please turn to slide 11 for the financial highlights. In the first quarter of the year, our TCE increased to $331 million, and based on this, we generated $266 million EBITDA and $209 million in net profit. Subtracting profit from sale of vessels of $17 million, we arrived at a satisfactory adjusted net profit of $192 million, i.e., up 25% relative to last year driven by both the strong rate environment and our increased fleet that have added to our earning days. TORM achieved TCE rates of more than $43,000 per day, with LR2s above $54,000 a day, LR1s above $48,000 a day, and MRs around $39,000 a day, driven by a very high level of rates in the first part of the quarter, followed by some retracting towards the end of the quarter.

Our fleet had a total of 7,698 earning days, i.e., markedly higher than the 6,732 days we had in the same quarter last year as we took delivery of more vessels. We believe these are strong numbers, and added together, they reflect a very strong performance, enabling us to increase TCE rates per day by $1,400 compared to Q1 2023 while maintaining operating expenses unchanged just below $7,300 per day. Also, our continuous focus on capital management and balance sheet structure is reflected in a stable loan-to-value ratio in the range of 25%-30%. As seen in previous quarters, we have achieved this stable level while increasing our operational level as we are using our shares as part of the consideration in connection with acquisition of vessels, and at the same time, allowing us to return a significant part of our earnings to our shareholders.

Please turn to slide 12. The chart in the upper left illustrates how vessel values have developed over the previous quarters, leading to a total value of $3.5 billion at the end of Q1 2024, and with net asset values showing a similar progression. On the chart in the lower left, we have adjusted the net interest-bearing debt for the dividend for Q4 2023, i.e., the dividend distributed in this April, and thus getting to $885 million. In total, we have like-for-like increased the net interest-bearing debt by $238 million over the course of the year while vessel values have increased around $600 million. This gets us to the net loan-to-value ratio of 25.6%. Now, please turn to slide 13. I have already touched upon our strong return to shareholders, so this slide is just to sum it up.

Our net profit for the quarter amounted to $209 million, whereas $17 million stems from the profit from sale of vessels, i.e., adjusted profit for the quarter amounts to $192 million. Based on our distribution policy that states our intention to pay out excess liquidity above a threshold cash level, the board of directors have declared a dividend for Q1 2024 of $1.5 per share, i.e., adding to the string of attractive cash distributions we have made in the previous quarters. This adds up to just around $141 million, corresponding to 73% of our adjusted profit. And as such, it reflects the transparent cash flow from operations, less installments on debt. And now, please turn to slide 15 for the outlook.

Based on the very satisfactory results we have published today and our coverage we have for the second quarter of 2024, updated our guidance range to TCE earnings in the range of $1.1-$1.35 billion, and EBITDA in the range of $800 million to $1.5 billion. Thus, we have increased the lower end of our range by $100 million and thereby narrowed the guidance range compared to two months ago, thus adding further comfort to our full-year guidance. As you might expect, we have planned for standard maintenance to be done over the summer months, thus dry dockings, and therefore the number of off-hire days will be a little higher in Q2 and Q3 compared to Q1. Thus, in the second quarter of 2024, we expect to have 7,763 earning days, and for the full year, we would expect to have 31,225 earning days.

Mikael Larsen (Head of Investor Relations)

Based on our rates and our coverage, as of 6 May 2024, we have fixed a total of 42% of our earning days at $43,189 per day for the full year across the fleet. This concludes my part of the presentation, so I will now hand it back to the operator, who will chair the Q&A session. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. At this time, if you would like to ask a question, press star one on your telephone keypad. If your question has been answered and you would like to remove yourself from the queue, press star one again. Your first question is from the line of Jonathan Chappell with Evercore ISI.

Jonathan Chappell (Senior Managing Director)

Thank you. Good afternoon. I just want to ask two questions as it relates to strategy and basically just quarterly updates on things we've spoken about in the past. First, as it relates to the fleet, obviously, you've absorbed a fair amount of secondhand vessels over the last 12-18 months, and asset values keep pushing higher. You've also been divesting some of your older vessels. Where do you kind of see yourself on additions versus subtractions going forward in the current, not just rate backdrop, but asset value backdrop?

Jacob Meldgaard (CEO and Executive Director)

Yeah. So of course, thanks, John. Jacob here. It's a dynamic world. I mean, so as you point to, we were relatively active. Last year, we saw quite a number of opportunities that we felt were compelling to enter into, especially for larger ships, LR2, LR1s. Prices have kept pushing up even after those transactions. So I think we've been a little in a pause moment, to be honest. You can also see this year, so far, we've added one vessel to our fleet, and we'll take one out. So it's been relatively stable. Having said that, we are constantly scouting for what we would deem as good capital employment with a good risk-reward. But I don't have anything on the table right now, John, where I could say that's compelling.

But surely, with how can I say an organization that is keen to still deliver even more value and not rest on the laurels, we are certainly chopping away on the opportunities. But there's nothing where I could say that makes sense. But I'm hopeful that we'll do something. Right now, I'm very comfortable with the position we have, to be honest.

Jonathan Chappell (Senior Managing Director)

Great. That's good to hear. You noted in your initial comments, which I didn't see in print anywhere, you did a 3-year contract. As we think about this order book, as it continues to build and a lot of the wind at your back from a demand and geopolitical perspective, have you thought now with that fleet of 89 vessels that you're comfortable with of maybe getting a little bit more coverage of some duration of 3 years? And I guess the follow-up to that would also be, was this that you were able to sign somewhat of a one-off, or is there increasing liquidity in that market?

Jacob Meldgaard (CEO and Executive Director)

All right. So let's start from the back end. I do think that given that we are now, in effect, if we look at our own numbers, we are two years into strong earnings. I think it's also clear that the geopolitical environment that I discussed before, obviously, we don't know the future, but it looks as if it is supportive of longer tonne-mile for transportation refined oil. I think there are starting to be signs of that some of our clients also think that maybe they should hedge themselves against a continued very, very strong market. And obviously, if we do longer-dated contracts, I mean, I just mentioned 30,000 on an MR, that dwarfs us when we are doing more than 40,000 on a quarterly basis right now.

So, I think my answer to the latter part of your question would be, I do think there is more people looking at, would it make sense now to start to de-risk if you are long on freight and not long on ships? And we will constantly, of course, scout for that type of opportunity with the right clients. And yeah, we are seeing we are in a more dialogue on that today than what I experienced, let's say, a couple of quarters ago.

Jonathan Chappell (Senior Managing Director)

Got it. Great. Thank you, Jacob.

Jacob Meldgaard (CEO and Executive Director)

Thanks. Thanks for your questions.