Q2 2024 Earnings Summary
- Significant progress on the Southeast Gateway Project (SGP), with potential for early mechanical completion, could enhance EBITDA sooner than expected and support deleveraging efforts ahead of plan.
- The company has achieved substantial deleveraging progress, including $2.6 billion of asset sales, the NGTL settlement adding $175 million in EBITDA, and CapEx savings, positioning them well to meet their 2024 leverage target and address 2025 interim leverage concerns.
- Strong demand growth in Mexico offers low-risk incremental growth opportunities for TC Energy, leveraging their backbone infrastructure while managing exposure through potential partnerships.
- Potential $400 million liability from the Columbia acquisition case could impact deleveraging plans and financials if the appeal is unsuccessful. While management is optimistic about the appeal outcome, the adjudication process will continue into 2025, and they may need to accommodate any judgment or cash outlay required.
- Uncertainty in meeting 2025 leverage targets, as the company relies on improving EBITDA performance, outperforming capital spend, and possibly further asset divestitures. These additional divestitures will only proceed if valuations are compelling, potentially impacting the deleveraging strategy.
- Delays in the Bruce C nuclear project could postpone growth in the power segment. The impact assessment process for the new nuclear build is in very early stages and will take years to complete, delaying potential benefits from this project.
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Leverage Ratios and Deleveraging Plan
Q: Where do you see leverage in 2025 vs. 4.75% target?
A: With recent asset sales of $2.6 billion , strong EBITDA performance, and CapEx trending to the lower end at $8 billion , we're largely below the 4.75x debt-to-EBITDA target for 2024. For 2025, we have partial-year benefits from assets going into service. To address this interim period, we have three levers: improving EBITDA performance, outperforming our capital spend plan, and considering additional divestitures if valuations are compelling. -
NGTL Settlement's EBITDA Impact
Q: Walk us through NGTL settlement's EBITDA uplift?
A: The NGTL settlement brings an EBITDA increase of around $200 million , comprising $150 million from accelerated depreciation and $50 million from incentive mechanisms. The $150 million was largely included in our plan, while the $50 million represents additional upside as incentives are realized. -
Asset Sales and Valuation Multiples
Q: Does NGTL sale set a 12x floor multiple for assets?
A: Yes, but it varies by asset. NGTL's full cost-of-service regulation leads to low cash flow volatility, garnering attractive valuations as seen in the recent transaction. The M&A market is robust due to strong fund flows and monetary easing. We anticipate continued robust multiples, adjusting for asset classes and risk profiles. -
Columbia Verdict and Deleveraging
Q: How does the $400M verdict affect deleveraging?
A: We intend to appeal the court's decision , with the process likely extending into 2025. We can accommodate any required judgment or cash outlay while meeting our deleveraging objectives. We're optimistic about a favorable outcome based on the case merits. -
Payout Ratio Strategy
Q: Thoughts on reducing payout ratios over time?
A: Our goal is to focus on reducing payout ratios in the second half of the decade. Currently, we're concentrating on putting $16 billion of assets into service between 2024 and 2025. After completing this, we'll assess our financial position and aim to reduce payout ratios over the long run. -
Early Completion of Southeast Gateway
Q: Could early SGP completion aid deleveraging?
A: Our plan is for Southeast Gateway to enter service mid-2025. We're exploring bringing it into service early to enhance EBITDA performance. It's early days, but ahead-of-schedule execution would help address partial-year leverage metrics in 2025. -
NGTL Settlement Details
Q: Is the $150M depreciation included in guidance?
A: Yes, the $150 million increased depreciation was largely included in our existing plan. The additional $50 million from incentives represents upside as those mechanisms are realized. -
Growth Opportunities in Mexico
Q: Thoughts on growth in Mexico post-SGP?
A: We're bullish on Mexico's role in North American gas markets. Completing projects like Southeast Gateway positions us for attractive, low-risk opportunities. However, we aim to manage our Mexico exposure, currently around 15% of consolidated EBITDA , and would seek to lower this before significant new investments. -
Data Center Prospects
Q: Elaborate on data center opportunities in Canada?
A: Canada has around 300 data centers today, with load expected to increase by 1 to 2 gigawatts by decade's end. In the U.S., over 60% of the 300 new data centers are within 50 miles of our pipelines. We're well-positioned to serve this growing demand, building projects at 6x to 8x build multiples. -
Outlook for Storage Assets
Q: Outlook for commercial development of storage?
A: We're one of North America's largest storage operators, with around 650 Bcf under operation. Demand remains strong, with storage capacity 100% contracted for eight consecutive years. Over 80% of our storage is subscribed by LDC customers for reliability. We expect this trend to continue, focusing on rate-regulated, integrated storage solutions.
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