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TransUnion (TRU)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • TransUnion delivered a solid Q2 2025, exceeding internal guidance on revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and Adjusted Diluted EPS; revenue grew 10% reported to $1.140B and organic constant currency growth was 9% .
  • Versus Wall Street, revenue and adjusted EPS beat S&P Global consensus; the company raised FY 2025 guidance to $4.432–$4.472B revenue (+6–7% organic CC) and $4.03–$4.14 adjusted EPS; Q3 outlook: $1.115–$1.135B revenue and $0.99–$1.04 adjusted EPS .
  • Key drivers: U.S. Financial Services up 17% (11% ex-mortgage), double-digit Insurance growth, and International up 6% organic CC with India accelerating to +8% .
  • Balance sheet catalysts: Leverage ratio reduced to 2.8x, $47M repurchases through mid-July, and a dividend declared for Q2 ($0.115/share) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • U.S. Financial Services strength: +17% reported (11% ex-mortgage) driven by consumer lending (+18%), auto (+19%), and mortgage (+29%) despite flat inquiries; robust fintech demand for debt consolidation and alternative data solutions .
  • International momentum: India accelerated to +8% growth; Canada and Africa delivered double-digit growth; U.K. grew with healthy batch/online activity and wins across verticals .
  • Strategic innovation: Trusted Call Solutions (TCS) scaling rapidly (expected ~$150M 2025), 94% U.S. carrier coverage via AT&T/partners, and OneTru platform delivering 20–50% developer productivity gains and faster processing .

What Went Wrong

  • Margin compression: Adjusted EBITDA margin declined 50 bps YoY to 35.7% (expense timing in H1); U.S. Markets margin down 110 bps .
  • Asia Pacific softness and Latin America mixed: APAC down (–8% organic CC) due to prior-year one-time consulting revenue; Latin America modest growth .
  • Non-GAAP adjustments remained significant: Q2 adjustments included $23.2M accelerated tech investment and $5.4M operating model optimization; adjustment mix and timing can complicate EPS comparability .

Financial Results

Consolidated Results vs Prior Periods

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$1,036.8 $1,095.7 $1,139.7
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.34 $0.75 $0.56
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$0.97 $1.05 $1.08
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$377.9 $397.1 $407.0
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)36.5% 36.2% 35.7%
Net Income attributable to TransUnion ($USD Millions)$66.2 $148.1 $109.6
Net Income Margin (%)6.4% 13.5% 9.6%

Q2 2025 vs Prior Year and vs S&P Global Consensus

MetricQ2 2024 (YoY base)Q2 2025 ActualS&P Global ConsensusSurprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)$1,040.8 $1,139.7 $1,097.5*+$42.2M beat*
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$0.99 $1.08 $0.99*+$0.09 beat*
EBITDA ($USD Millions) (S&P definition)—$334.8*$386.5*–$51.7M miss*

Values retrieved from S&P Global. Definitions for “EBITDA” may differ from company “Adjusted EBITDA,” driving divergence between S&P “actual” and company’s non-GAAP results.*

Segment Breakdown – Q2 2025

Segment / Sub-segmentRevenue ($USD Millions)Reported GrowthConstant Currency GrowthOrganic CC GrowthAdjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)
U.S. Markets – Financial Services$419.9 17% 17% 17%
U.S. Markets – Emerging Verticals$323.6 5% 5% 5%
U.S. Markets – Consumer Interactive$146.9 3% 3% 2%
Total U.S. Markets$890.4 10% 10% 10% $337.2
International – Canada$42.3 9% 10% 10%
International – Latin America$34.1 (1%) 4% 4%
International – U.K.$67.2 19% 13% 5%
International – Africa$18.2 15% 14% 14%
International – India$66.6 5% 8% 8%
International – Asia Pacific$24.5 (7%) (8%) (8%)
Total International$252.9 7% 7% 6% $108.0

KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPIQ2 2025
Cash & Cash Equivalents$687.5M
Total Debt$5,136.5M
Net Debt$4,449.0M
Leverage Ratio (Net Debt / LTM Adj. EBITDA)2.8x
H1 2025 CapEx (% revenue)7%
Share Repurchases YTD (through mid-July)$47M

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Apr 24)Current Guidance (Jul 24)Change
Revenue ($USD Billions)Q3 2025$1.076–$1.095 $1.115–$1.135 Raised
Organic CC Revenue Growth (%)Q3 2025—+2% to +4% (excl. Mortgage ~2 pts) New detail
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)Q3 2025$375–$386 $397–$411 Raised
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)Q3 2025$0.95–$0.99 $0.99–$1.04 Raised
Revenue ($USD Billions)FY 2025$4.358–$4.417 $4.432–$4.472 Raised
Organic CC Revenue Growth (%)FY 2025+4.5% to +6% +6% to +7% Raised
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)FY 2025$1.549–$1.590 $1.580–$1.610 Raised
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)FY 2025$3.93–$4.08 $4.03–$4.14 Raised
Adjusted Tax Rate (%)FY 2025—~26.5% New detail
Net Interest Expense ($USD Millions)FY 2025—~$200 New detail
CapEx (% Revenue)FY 2025~8% ~8% Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ4 2024 (Feb)Q1 2025 (Apr)Q2 2025 (Jul)Trend
AI/Technology & OneTruAnnounced freemium D2C offering; ongoing modernization OneTru accelerating innovation; transformation savings focus OneTru identity graph augmented; 20–50% dev productivity; faster processing; AI tools (Assist, AI Studio) Execution ramping and broadening use cases
Trusted Call Solutions (TCS)Not detailedNot detailedTCS scaling to ~$150M 2025; 94% U.S. coverage; AT&T branded display; path to ~$250M by 2028 High-growth pillar with carrier leverage
Macro/LendingU.S. stable but subdued; Insurance strong Stable volumes; cautious on risks; exceeded Q1 guide Slightly better than expected; fintech recovery; mortgage bouncing at bottom Gradual improvement with prudent tone
Mortgage/FHFA PolicyMortgage pricing tailwind Guidance assumes ~2 pts mortgage benefit FHFA validates VantageScore 4.0; Tri-merge retained; TU supportive; mortgage revenue +29% vs flat inquiries Policy clarity; share opportunity
International – India+17% in Q4 Low-single-digit, expected recovery +8% in Q2; aiming ~10% FY and high-teens Q4; mid-term 20%+ potential Re-acceleration underway
Regulatory/LegalTransformation savings; capital allocation refresh Monitoring macro and policy risks; legal/regulatory expenses adjusted Continued non-GAAP adjustments; tax rate and FX headwinds in EPS outlook Managed within guidance

Management Commentary

  • “TransUnion delivered strong results that again exceeded financial guidance… We are raising our 2025 guidance… We now expect revenue growth of 6 to 7 percent.” — Chris Cartwright, CEO .
  • “Our business grew 6.5% on an organic constant currency basis excluding mortgage… Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.08, $0.09 ahead of the high end of our guidance.” — Todd Cello, CFO .
  • “TCS covers 94% of U.S. wireless consumers through our exclusive relationship with AT&T… delivered 5 billion authenticated branded calls in 2024.” — Chris Cartwright .
  • “Unless there’s a slowdown in lending or the economy, we would expect to exceed the high end of guidance.” — Chris Cartwright .

Q&A Highlights

  • Alternative data and FactorTrust momentum: Replatformed on OneTru with enhanced analytics and identity spine; double-digit growth and strong pipeline including auto vertical wins .
  • Consumer Interactive: Freemium rollout now ~75% converted; aiming for mid-single-digit intermediate-term growth with broader lender offers and marketplace buildout .
  • Lending environment: Stable-but-muted improving; fintech consumer lending recovered; card batch activity rising; auto volumes pulled forward ahead of tariffs; mortgage at bottom with non-tri revenue/pricing tailwinds .
  • India trajectory: RBI rate cuts, NBFCs returning, manageable delinquencies; targeting ~10% FY and high-teens Q4, with multi-year 20%+ growth potential .
  • FHFA score policy: Support for tri-merge and competition with trended-data scores; operational work ahead but constructive long-term impact .
  • Transformation costs/benefits: One-time program capped at $355–$375M through 2025; $200M FCF benefit in 2026; CapEx to 6% of revenue from 2026 .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 actuals vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $1,139.7M beat $1,097.5M; Adjusted EPS $1.08 beat $0.99; S&P “EBITDA” actual $334.8M vs $386.5M consensus (definition differs from company “Adjusted EBITDA”) — net revenue/EPS beat narrative intact.*
  • Q3 2025 consensus ahead of results: Revenue ~$1,133M; EPS ~$1.04 vs company guidance $1.115–$1.135B and $0.99–$1.04, respectively — broadly aligned with the high end on EPS and near mid-range on revenue.*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

S&P Global Consensus and Actuals

PeriodMetricConsensusActual/Guide
Q2 2025Revenue ($USD Millions)1,097.5*1,139.7
Q2 2025Primary EPS ($)0.991*1.08
Q2 2025EBITDA ($USD Millions)386.5*334.8*
Q3 2025Revenue ($USD Millions)1,133.0*1,115–1,135 (guide)
Q3 2025Primary EPS ($)1.044*0.99–1.04 (guide)
FY 2025Revenue ($USD Millions)4,536.5*4,432–4,472 (guide)
FY 2025Primary EPS ($)4.262*4.03–4.14 (guide)

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue/EPS beat and FY guidance raise signal resilient demand across Financial Services, Insurance, and select International markets; narrative skewed positive near term .
  • Mortgage is a tailwind via pricing and non-tri revenues despite flat inquiries; FHFA’s score policy and retained tri-merge may open incremental share opportunities over time .
  • TCS is emerging as a high-growth vector with robust carrier integration; expect continued multi-vertical adoption and growing revenue contribution .
  • Margins: H2 margin trajectory consistent with ~36% H1; watch expense timing and transformation adds; non-GAAP adjustments remain material in 2025 .
  • Balance sheet improving: 2.8x leverage, ~$688M cash; ongoing deleveraging and calibrated buybacks alongside Q2 dividend .
  • India acceleration and Canada/Africa strength support International diversification; APAC expected to return to growth in H2 .
  • Risks to monitor: macro softness (rates/inflation), FX/tax headwinds embedded in EPS outlook, and execution on tech modernization and marketplace integration .

Other Relevant Q2 2025 Press Releases

  • Dividend: Declared $0.115 per share for Q2 2025, payable Sept 8, 2025 .

Notes:

  • Company exceeded Q2 guidance across revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS .
  • Liquidity: $687.5M cash; net debt $4.45B; leverage ratio 2.8x .
  • Transformation adjustments and reconciliation details provided (Schedules 1–7) .