Tenaris - Q2 2023
August 3, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Q2 2023 Tenaris S.A. Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Giovanni Sardagna. Please go ahead.
Giovanni Sardagna (Director of Investor Relations)
Thank you, Gigi, welcome to Tenaris' 2023 second quarter conference call. Before we start, I would like to remind you that we will be discussing forward-looking information in the call, and that our actual results may vary from those expressed or implied during this call. With me on the call today are Paolo Rocca, our Chairman and CEO, Alicia Mondolo, our Chief Financial Officer, Gabriel Podskubka, our Chief Operating Officer, and Luca Zanotti, President of our U.S. Operations. Before passing over the call to Paolo for his opening remarks, I would like to briefly comment our quarterly results.
Our second quarter sales reached $4.1 billion, up 46% year-on-year, down 2% sequentially, mainly due to lower OCTG sales in Colombia and Canada, and lower pipeline sales in Argentina, partially offset by higher offshore sales and higher sales in the Middle East. Average selling prices in our tubes operating segment increased 21% compared to the corresponding quarter of last year, 1% sequentially. Our EBITDA for the quarter was down 5% sequentially to $1.4 billion, due to lower sales and higher SG&A expenses. Our EBITDA margin for the quarter was 34.6%. Our net income for the quarter increased 1% sequentially to $1.1 billion, as it benefited from an improvement in financial results and higher income from non-consolidated companies.
With operating cash flow of over $1.3 billion and capital expenditure of $165 million, our free cash flow for the quarter reached a record level of $1.2 billion. After a dividend payment of $401 million in May, our net cash position increased to $2.3 billion at the end of the quarter. Now, I will ask Paolo to say a few words before we open the call to questions.
Paolo Rocca (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you, Giovanni, good morning to all of you. In our second quarter, we almost matched the record results for our, of our first quarter. The combined results of the first half amply exceed our previous record for a semester. This performance was driven by a high level of sales in both the U.S. onshore markets and in offshore markets, as well as a solid contribution from our sales in the other region. It was also a quarter when our net income and free cash flow each exceeded $1 billion. Our industrial supply chain system are operating at record levels in many plant and production line, as well as in logistic movements. In the U.S., we sold a record level of Wedge Series 400 connections, which have been specifically designed for drilling operation in shale environment.
Large operators, in particular, appreciated the value we can bring to their operation with our Rig Direct service, which now include the delivery of pipes in RunReady condition. This service involves taking care of the supply of pipes from their production until they are run in the well, using our PipeTracer system that provide a technical specification for each pipe supplied, and the running dope applied in the factory. By avoiding the need for rig site pre-checking processes and making digital tallies with all the data needed for installation, the service reduces cost and enhances safety and environmental performance at the rig. For offshore operations, we again sold record levels of BlueDock connector and Dopeless connections. In Brazil, we have developed a Red Zone customer value proposition focused on reducing manual operation on the rig floor and thus enhancing safety.
We were also awarded the supply of 95,000 tons for an offshore pipeline and seamless risers for the BM-C-33 deepwater development in Brazil Campos Basin, as well as a contract for the supply of 46,000 tons of seamless pipe for an offshore pipeline for the Sakarya development in the Black Sea. In Saudi Arabia, we began consolidating the operation of Global Pipe Company from May 17th, after increasing our indirect shareholding in the company from 35%-57%. This company produces larger diameter pipes for gas pipeline infrastructure, structures and conductor casing application. The sale of GPC contributed $20 million to this quarter. With increase in Aramco's gas drilling operation, both in conventional and unconventional operation, and this Master Gas Development Plan, the demand for OCTG and line pipe in Saudi Arabia is expected to increase strongly over the coming years.
OCTG stocks are at a relatively low level, and Aramco is seeking to replenish them rapidly. Tenaris, with a wide range of product manufactured in Kingdom, where we employ over 800 persons, and extensive global capabilities worldwide, is well positioned to supply Aramco requirement. In July, the Argentine government inaugurated the first stage of the Néstor Kirchner Pipeline that was built with our pipes in record time. The pipeline opened the road to develop the prolific Vaca Muerta shale resources to transform the country's energy balance. There are further projects for pipeline infrastructure and development, aiming to expand evacuation capacity of oil and gas from Vaca Muerta, which will attract additional investment into drilling, but this will depend on political development following the election in the coming months.
We are well positioned to serve this expansion with our integrated range of local production and service capabilities, from OCTG, pipelines, and sucker rod to fracking and coiled tubing services. We are nearing the completion of some investment that will contribute to our target of reducing the carbon emission intensity of our operation by 30% by 2030, compared to 2018. This month in Italy, we are completing the installation of a heat treatment furnace, which is designed to work with hydrogen and natural gas, and will improve the energy efficiency of our Italian operation. In Argentina, we have installed 23 out of the 24 wind turbines for the wind farm, which will be supply close to 50% of our electric power requirement for our operation in the country. We expect to start operating the wind farm in October.
In our release, we mentioned that our sales and margin in the second half would be significantly lower than our record results in the first half. Our EBITDA will be lower than $1 billion in the third quarter, due to market pricing conditions and specific activity declines in onshore activities in the Americas. On the other hand, our operating cash flow will again exceed $1 billion as we continue to reduce working capital. Looking ahead, we expect that the specific factors that are affecting drilling activity in the second half of this year will fade away. The structural differentiation that Tenaris has established with its unique global reach, competitive industrial system, and position with leading oil and gas producers around the world, will support our financial performance over time. We will-- we are ready now for any question you may have.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. As a reminder to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram from JPMorgan Securities LLC.
Arun Jayaram (Research Analyst)
Yeah, good morning. Paolo, I wanted to get your thoughts on how, call it, the pullback in market fundamentals for OCTG impacts, you know, the company's thoughts on establishing a return of capital framework beyond the base dividend. If you do, you know, move in that direction, you know, where the board's thoughts are on buybacks versus, you know, variable dividends, just given the, you know, the presence of a controlling shareholder at the company?
Paolo Rocca (Chairman and CEO)
Well, thank you, Arun. I think the board will, will evaluate the medium-term perspective, as you say, of the, of our market and of our positioning, in this market. We'll also evaluate, the capital, investment that may be required for different kind of operation, and keeping this in mind, we'll then look at the situation, the available liquidity for the company, and the decision on, dividend or other option. I think all option are open, for the board meeting, in November, to take a decision, on this, on this ground.
Arun Jayaram (Research Analyst)
Great. Paolo, my follow-up, I was wondering if you could give us more detail on some of the import trends which have been, call it, impacting your thoughts on the second half outlook. Have you seen any change in the pace of imports? You know, any thoughts on when you think, you know, we could reach, call it a, a, a bottom in North America for OCTG?
Paolo Rocca (Chairman and CEO)
Well, thank you. Well, you know, we were expecting a reduction in our, in our, in our EBITDA in the second half of the year because of the decline in pricing in North America. The PipeLogix went down up to now in July, by around 27% from the peak of the late last year. This was something that we were expecting. On top of this, we had to consider, there are some additional consideration. One, we have been able to advance shipment and production because the performance of the mill has been very good in the last quarter.
We've been able to advance some of the, the, the material and the order, and to ship material that is contributing to the extraordinary, very good performance, I would say, of the second quarter, but is, to some extent, reducing volume in the next. The other factor is the situation in Argentina is not easy to predict. There are projects that we completed, like pipeline and allocation. There are other projects that are pending, but there is a situation of uncertainty due to the economic instability of the country, the high inflation, and the restriction to import of necessary materials for the oil and gas industry.
This is impacting activity to some extent, and I think that it will not be really addressed until the election cycle is completed by the fourth Q of this year. This, to some extent, slow down the level of consumption and some of the project in Argentina. Other factor has been some reduction in expectation in Colombia and in Ecuador, Ecuador, compared to what we were considering maybe three months ago. On this specifics, let me ask Gabriel to add some color on it, because things are moving in, in these countries.
Gabriel Podskubka (COO)
Yeah. Thank you, Paolo. Good morning, everyone. Certainly, Colombia has been a country that has been affected by uncertainty on political changes. Also, we have, in some areas of the country, social unrest. This have diminished our outlook for the region, at least in the third and fourth quarter. To give you an idea, in Colombia, we were serving 50 operating rigs as of 2022. Today, that level of activity is around 28 rigs. We believe that we have reached the bottom, but we are forecasting this level to continue for the next quarters, at least. There are some early signs for recovery into 2024, but it's a bit early for that. This has been one of the markets that have been softer than originally anticipated in the second half of the year.
Paolo Rocca (Chairman and CEO)
These are the, let's say, some of the factors that are guiding our, our forecast in, in the third Q, and in the second half, but the medium-term perspective that we see didn't change substantially on this. We think that the oil sector is pretty firm. The level of investment of the oil company, solid. The price of oil in the $80s is supporting recovery of activity in the United States later on, during the, maybe the fourth quarter of 2023 or in 2024. In the rest of the world, offshore and Middle East and the East Hemisphere, the level of activity is gradually increasing. In this sense, I think the environment for oil and gas is solid.
From the exceptional results of the first semester, let's say we will reduce our EBITDA. That's the reason why we call this a significant reduction, but still will be a very solid results, and the operative cash flow will be higher than $1 billion in the Q3.
Arun Jayaram (Research Analyst)
Great. Thanks a lot.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Marc Bianchi from TD Cowen.
Marc Bianchi (Managing Director)
Hi, thank you. I wanted to ask a little bit more on the progression in the back half here. If third quarter EBITDA is below $1 billion, as I think you said, curious what margin that would mean. Then as we go to fourth quarter, I know there's probably some less visibility, but just there's, there's probably some seasonal factors at play. If you could give us any kind of a steer on how fourth quarter looks versus third, that would be helpful as well.
Paolo Rocca (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you, Marc. Well, for the third quarter, we expect the margin close to 30%, maybe slightly below 30%, but in that range. Then I think that for looking to the fourth quarter, we had to take to have more clear view on the dynamic of factor, especially in the United States. On this, I will ask Luca, because the United States, you know, North America is important, but United States are the core of our North America operation. I will ask Luca to give us some element to evaluate the perspective in the medium term.
Luca Zanotti (President of U.S. Operations)
Yeah, sure. Morning, Marc. I, I believe that a little bit to describe a little bit what our view is on the U.S., we should look at two aspects. The demand on the one side and the supply on the other side. When we look at the demand, what we see, and this is very much in line with what of the big drillers have established in previous earnings call, that we're gonna see some rigs coming off, maybe during the third quarter of 2023.
This is mainly due to gas, maybe some gas rigs will come out, and mainly due to the fact that there are still some M&A going on, and usually, when they combine entities, the rig count of the combined entity is lower than the two separate companies. Overall, we see the trend downward to decelerate during Q3. Then, we see this stabilizing moving into Q4, and maybe we can have some surprises on the upside, given the fact that the new oil price in the $80s has changed a little bit the horizon for the operators. When we look at the demand, sorry, when we look at the supply, well, then we go back to the imports that was asked before.
What we see on the imports is that imports have come down as we were expecting. If you look at Q1 compared to Q2, imports have come down by about 150,000 tons. More specifically, when you look at the first month of the quarters, which is usually where the quarter resets and the imports are a little bit higher, and if you see, for example, July, which obviously are still not imports, but licenses, and compared to April, well, you see that the trend is even more steep. We saw this coming off by 100,000.
We expect with, with some delays, obviously linked to the lead times of this decision, import will come down, have come down, and will continue to come down through the year. Also, the domestic will adjust. We have seen some already stating that they're gonna adjust production down. Overall, a reduced offer, especially on the side of the imports, and an activity that is still slowing down, but at a lower pace, will help somewhat consume the overhang inventory that we still have on the ground. I don't know if this is.
Paolo Rocca (Chairman and CEO)
No, I think it's clear, but is, let's say, these are the factor that will basically drive the medium-term dynamics of this market that is very important, and will also influence price over time.
Marc Bianchi (Managing Director)
Do, do you think the stabilization and all the factors that Luca mentioned, is that enough to result in a EBITDA that's from the U.S. that's flat in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter? Is it still likely lower, it's just a matter that it's, it's more stabilizing and maybe it starts to increase as we get into 2024?
Paolo Rocca (Chairman and CEO)
Well, you know, the decline in the PipeLogix, to some extent, is affecting our contract with some delay. I expect that we will still have some price reduction, maybe not the PipeLogix reduction, but some price reduction in our contract in the fourth quarter. At that time, there will be also some positive factor driving from the rest of the world. These are the factor that are affecting, let's say, the medium term.
Marc Bianchi (Managing Director)
Okay, that's helpful. The other question I had was just on these uncertainties in Colombia, Ecuador, and Argentina that you mentioned. Is there any way to help us understand the magnitude of that, maybe collectively on an EBITDA basis? Is that, you know, a $50 million EBITDA hit in the back half, or just any way to help us understand how significant that is, and if it, if it goes away, you know, how much we could be adding back to the level of profit?
Paolo Rocca (Chairman and CEO)
Well, for sure, Argentina is the most important of this because in the end, in Argentina, we are... We have an invoicing that is in the range of $2 billion per year. I mean, if we consider pipeline, the entire sales of OCTG, line pipe, but also the service. You know, in Argentina, we are performing coil tube service, fracking service. We have units for fracking that are working for different client. The extent of our presence in Argentina is very substantial. If there is some difficulties of the operator in maintaining their performance of drilling because of lack of key imported material, or difficulties in managing the operation in a volatile macroeconomic environment, this has an impact.
Now, let me tell you that the perspective of Argentina over time, once this election cycle is completed, is pretty impressive, you know, because Argentina needs to build, and it is, there is a, I would say, overall consensus on the need of strengthening infrastructure to build evacuation channel for Vaca Muerta, for gas, for oil. There are projects from different companies that will enhance this and allow the country to start exporting oil and integrating gas with the surrounding countries. This will also drive additional drilling and additional production. All of this is, in my view, very positive for a company like Tenaris, that has a very large presence in Argentina. The perspective is good, the election year is creating turmoil.
When we look at the Canada and the size, let's say, of a Canada operation and Colombian operation, these are not so relevant. Still, maybe, Gabriel, I mean, this could also be. You can give an idea of the size of our operation there and the impact that this could have, the perspective of it.
Gabriel Podskubka (COO)
Yes, considering also the changing perspective in Canada, we didn't comment it before. Canada had a very strong first half of the year, but we see some of our key customers adjusting the level of investment, focusing a policy of preservation of cash. We believe that this will be reverted into 2024, but this is our expectation for the second half of the year. This contributes as well to the onshore decrease in the second half versus the first half, in addition to Argentina, Colombia, and Ecuador. I would say that within this market, the drop of invoices considered in the second half versus the first half, is in the range of $200 million-$250 million, approximately.
Marc Bianchi (Managing Director)
That's, that's revenue, $200 million-$250 million?
Gabriel Podskubka (COO)
Yeah.
Marc Bianchi (Managing Director)
Correct. Yep.
Gabriel Podskubka (COO)
Yeah.
Marc Bianchi (Managing Director)
Great. Okay. Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Alessandro Pozzi from Mediobanca.
Alessandro Pozzi (Oil and Gas Equity Analyst)
Hi there, and thank you for taking the questions. I have a couple of them on South America. You mentioned, of course, the weakness in Colombia, Argentina as well. But at the same time, I believe Mexico is having a really strong year, and I was wondering whether the strength of Mexico, where we see the recount going back to, I think, the highest level since 2014, is not offsetting some of the weaknesses that you see in other regions as well. The second question is on the raw material costs
I believe is, they're coming down in your, in your COGS, and I was wondering whether there's a reflection of scrap coming down or, or what are the main components of that reduction? Finally, back to Argentina, Exxon, I believe, has been rumored potentially to exit the country, and I was wondering whether how you see that if, if, if that is confirmed and whether it could create additional uncertainty there. That's all for me. Thank you.
Paolo Rocca (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you, Alejandro. Well, on the first point on Mexico, Mexico, I would say, is gradually increasing level of operation. Some of the private operator in, in, in Mexico are advancing in their project. There is a gradual, let's say, increase in the activity, but this is not, let's say, a sudden and relevant increase. What we expect is a very gradual increase, constrained to some extent by some financial situation, as the financial situation in Pemex. Also, you know, Mexico is facing next year, election for president.
Also, you know, to some extent, some of the private company are moving on, but maybe this is a trend that may or could be stronger in the second part of next year, once the space has been cleared and the new government will take care. In the second point, well, on the other side, let me add, you know that in Mexico, in the nature of our contract, is that the tie, the relation with the PipeLogix, is strong, and any change in PipeLogix is reflected in our, in our pricing. The long-term contract with Pemex has this component. This component is also applied to other contract accounts. You will see volume increasing. Sales reflected this factor.
When you look at the cost, basically, I think that there is a slight reduction of cost, but due to the IFRS and the level of inventory in our system, this will be reflected in our, in our, profit and loss, in our cost of goods sold, basically starting from the first quarter of 2024. It's going down, but will be reflected only over time. On the other side, there is no major change. I mean, the movement in scrap, in hot-rolled coils, in energy and ferroalloys, are relatively limited. I mean, we do not see sudden change like the one we saw in gas last year, no, as a consequence of the invasion of Ukraine.
This year, what we see, some reduction in cost, but as I say, will turn out in our cost of goods sold, later on in the first quarter of 2004, mainly. The last point is about Exxon. Exxon announced the dismissal of areas in Vaca Muerta. Mainly, I think the reason are that Exxon is, has an extraordinary opportunity in Guyana, is concentrating investment in the very big project. Guyana is a extraordinary opportunity, and by the way, we are supporting Exxon in Guyana for all the OCTG in a long-term contract. They are concentrating on, let's say, the opportunity that they have. I don't see that this is reducing activity in Argentina, because in this area, there has been very limited activity going on up until now.
We will see what will happen later. I mean, Vaca Muerta is very, is a very large play. This is just one player.
Alessandro Pozzi (Oil and Gas Equity Analyst)
Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Gengaro from Stifel.
Stephen Gengaro (Managing Director)
Thank you, and good morning, everybody. I guess two questions from me. What I'd start with is, when we think about consumption of pipe per rig work, and I'm thinking about this kind of from a U.S. land perspective, are you seeing any change? Has it stabilized as far as kind of consumption per rig, the type of, the type of OCTG in the well? I mean, are there any trends underlying consumption that are positive, or have they sort of stabilized at current levels?
Paolo Rocca (Chairman and CEO)
You know, the, the, the, we are serving rigs operating in, uh, deep offshore in a, in a, in a very different environment. Also, uh, the, the, the consumption per rig is very different depending on the play. But the most, uh, let's say, homogeneous play is, uh, the U.S., uh, and the shales. So I will ask, uh, to Luca, uh, to give you some view, productivity increase very much over time, but, uh, uh, to give you an idea of, uh, uh, where this could go in, in the coming, in the coming quarters.
Luca Zanotti (President of U.S. Operations)
Yeah, thank you. Morning, Stephen. To answer your question on, on, on trends, specifically as far as the consumption is concerned, we see specific consumption increasing. This has been increasing a lot since the inception of the shales, still keeps on creeping up and will continue going up. Just to give you a color, if you take the largest operator, while you see that in some cases they drop down one or two rigs, obviously the big drop in the market in the Lower 48 comes from smaller operator. Even the one that took some rigs off, they are not reducing the number of wells that they are drilling. Our customer, even in some cases, they reduce a little bit activity in terms of rigs, they are still drilling the same number of wells.
This means that the specific consumption went up. This will continue because as they move on, let's say, out of the sweet spots, the number of wells that they're going to have to drill to maintain production or to increase production is going to increase. Overall, under this aspect, we see a nice future ahead of us. The second trend that we see establishing the more we go ahead, is a more and more, let's say, larger use of a seamless semi-premium in the production casing, which obviously is 45% of the total market in the United States. I overall believe that these two trends that are well established, will favor our positioning in the United States. Obviously, I'm always referring to the Lower 48.
Paolo Rocca (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, no, I think we are, just in term of data, you know, we were assuming in 2019, some, slightly less than five tons.
Luca Zanotti (President of U.S. Operations)
5,000 tons per year.
Paolo Rocca (Chairman and CEO)
5,000 tons per year per rig, and today we are in the range of 6.3, 6,000.3. The increase from 5 to 6.3 is part of what Luca is describing. It's coming from different reasons, but also, I, I think, the length of the laterals is increasing, and we see today, more wells in the 3.5 km, or 3,500 meters of laterals, and even more.
Luca Zanotti (President of U.S. Operations)
Yeah.
Paolo Rocca (Chairman and CEO)
This is good for us because it's requiring more complex product, more seamless, premium or semi-premium, to stand the demand of the longer lateral. In a sense, this is a trend that is making the market a little more selective.
Stephen Gengaro (Managing Director)
Thank you. The other question, and this is maybe a little, I'm trying to think of that word, but detailed. When we think about, you know, your Rig Direct model has obviously done a phenomenal job over the last five, six, seven years, however long you've had it in place, I forget. When we think about, like, looking at U.S. inventories and looking at, you know, kind of months of supply on the ground, like, I, I think that's calibrated based on, you know, the market and what inventories are in the system. Because you're serving a pretty sizable part of the market with a Rig Direct model, does looking at inventories on the ground give me a false picture of what the real supply demand is?
It feels like the inventory on the ground is still pretty, pretty low, as on a kind of a per rig, you know, on a month supply basis. I'm trying to sort of triangulate those two, where months of supply looks pretty healthy, but prices have been down year to date. I'm wondering if that's partially because your Rig Direct model doesn't show up in those numbers.
Luca Zanotti (President of U.S. Operations)
If you see the numbers that are reported into the, let's say, main trade publications, we are reporting our inventory on the ground. Obviously, I mean, our management of inventory is still, in my opinion, more efficient than the average of the industry. This is one kind of correction that you need to introduce. When you take out our inventory from this one, well, the remainder of the market is serviced by a level of inventory which is not dissimilar to the ones that used to be in place before we introduced the Rig Direct.
xed answer to what, what, what, what you're saying. In our calculation, when we look forward, the inventory estimation is in the range of 8.5 months-9 months, which is a number which is not as high as we saw 12, 13, 14 back in the past, but still high enough to determine some inventory of a range, which obviously reflects into, into the, into the prices.
Stephen Gengaro (Managing Director)
Great. Now, that, that's good detail. Thank you.
Paolo Rocca (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you, Stephen.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Marc Bianchi from TD Cowen.
Marc Bianchi (Managing Director)
Hi, thank you. I had a couple follow-ups. The first one was on, if we look out a few years here, I'm wondering if you're going to need to build some new seamless capacity. I think you're probably in the high 3 million tons of seamless volumes on a run-rate basis. Now, I think you're, you know, almost 5 million tons of capacity, but all that capacity might not be able to serve the whole world, right? You might need some capacity in, in certain parts that are growing. Can you talk about that and how that might relate to your decisions around capital return here later in this year?
Paolo Rocca (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you, Marc. Well, I, I think that we still have available capacity of seamless rolling in our system. If we have bottleneck in our production system, this is more in specific value-added areas. In some case, we need to enhance our coating capability. In some case, we need to strengthen ability to produce the couplings of premium, because we have, I mean, our bottleneck are more below the line of, because below the, the rolling mill and on one side. On the other side, remember, we have an important capacity of welded product.
To some extent, there are product that we may bring to the market, with all the technical sophistication that could compete, maybe not in the more demanding application, but can, to some extent, substitute some of the seamless in different parts of the core. By a combination of investment in value-added heat treatment, premium, Dopeless, or coating, or areas in which we may have demand that exceed our capacity, and using our capacity of welded, and in this area, also increasing or expanding heat treatment capability, I think we are able to, let's say, to cover the need of our client, and to support a very relevant market share worldwide, and a substantial market share in area like North America. Remember, we invested in a new mill in Canada for welded product, is gonna going on.
Investment like GPC in Saudi, to some extent, are covering the market, with material produced locally. This is welded, but still has an impact in our ability to satisfy demand from this. We also have to take in mind that we expect some demand of complex products for the energy transition. We're looking ahead, and we plan function of this.
Marc Bianchi (Managing Director)
Okay. Thank you, Paolo. The other question I had was probably for Luca. I think, in the past few quarters, we've kind of talked about maybe PipeLogix stabilizing at around $2,500 a ton. Is that still how you see it? And, what sort of timeline do you think it would take to get there? You made the comments earlier about some of the supply-demand dynamics in the market. Seems like maybe that, that could be happening fairly soon.
Paolo Rocca (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, Marc.
Luca Zanotti (President of U.S. Operations)
Sorry, Paolo, you want to?
Paolo Rocca (Chairman and CEO)
No, no, what I'm saying is that there are structural factors here. There is change this pricing level comparing to the historical level, you know, and we have to take this in mind. Anyway, look, maybe PipeLogix is American.
Luca Zanotti (President of U.S. Operations)
No, I was, I was going along the line that you introduced. Yeah, Marc, I mean, I believe that the demand-supply balance, which, I mean, in the end, derives the PipeLogix. I mean, I, I already introduced this in my previous answer. Now, here there are, on top of what I say, I was saying, where we see slowly going into, let's say, the end of 2024, balancing the demand-supply, and this has a clearly an effect on, on the PipeLogix. I believe that it is worth noticing that there have been changes structurally in the demand and in the supply. Even if the PipeLogix will evolve in a certain way, within the PipeLogix, we're gonna see differences among different categories.
I was mentioning before that, for a number of reasons, we see seamless consumption, semi-premium consumption, high torque semi-premium consumption, being more demanded for the application of the Lower 48. I believe that, in there, we're gonna have a differentiation that will drive prices differently than the overall PipeLogix. We have to take into consideration, increasing costs in general inflation, that is gonna stay there. I believe that the base is gonna be different and higher than the one that we saw in the past.
Paolo Rocca (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, I, I think there are structural factors that Luca is saying are supporting a level of PipeLogix, very different from the past. 1. 2. There are a positioning factor in our product offering and in the demand of the industry today that are differentiating our price. It is true that in our contract, PipeLogix is used as a reference, the factor for adjustment in many cases, our prices are then driven by the specificity of the service, the product, and the differentiation that Tenaris is able to establish in the market.
Marc Bianchi (Managing Director)
Very good. Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram from JPMorgan Securities LLC.
Arun Jayaram (Research Analyst)
Yeah, yeah, good morning. I wanted to see if you could maybe give us some more details on trends you're seeing in international offshore markets in the Middle East. I, I know SLB in their latest presentation, you know, did highlight the fact that, you know, the deepwater rig count could grow in double digits this year and next year. I want to get some thoughts on what you're seeing on the pipe side, tubular side.
Paolo Rocca (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah. Well, thank you, Arun. Gabriel, you see this all at worldwide, which is your view on this then?
Gabriel Podskubka (COO)
Yeah. Thank you, Paolo. Arun, indeed, positive perspectives on the offshore market. Drilling continues to increase, as you said, the expectations of growth. Let me tell you that the, the offshore rates have been consecutively increasing for the last 10 quarters, so this is a, a cycle that we see very strong. There is quite consensus in the industry that this is gonna be a multi-year cycle. We saw a lot of CapEx decisions and FID decisions in the last quarter, we see this already in our results. I think the second quarter was very high on offshore sales for Tenaris, we expect the second half of this year to be higher than the first half as we ramp up shipments of the deliveries of associated with the Qatar NFE pipeline project. We are building our, our backlog.
Paolo commented in the opening remarks about the two deepwater pipelines that we secured last quarter. 100,000 tons on the Brazilian BM-C-33. This will transport gas and condensate 200 km from the shore to a water depth of 3,000 meters in Brazil. This is a complicated, sophisticated pipe specification requiring coating as well. Also, we have been entrusted after the delivery of phase one of the Sakarya project. We have been awarded the second phase, which will also come into 2024. These are signs that FIDs are happening, awards are happening, and this is gonna be an area of strength. This is not only pipelines, this is also OCTG. We have had several awards in the last few months related to OCTG projects.
For example, one FID that was concluded in this quarter related to Romania, Black Sea, Neptun Deep. We have been awarded 100% of the OCTG campaign there. We have award, awards in the North Sea, Sub-Saharan Africa, Gulf of Mexico, the Mediterranean, North Africa as well. We are building a backlog into 2024 and beyond, as typically the lead time for these type of products is, takes typically 9 months-12 months to deliver. This is an opportunity for Tenaris to enrich its mix of products, as typically in this, especially on the deep water, top-of-the-line technologies are required. We are pretty confident of the strength of the offshore cycle going forward.
Paolo Rocca (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah. Thank you, Gabriel. This is very important. Even if the, the, the, the share of, let's say, offshore in our, in our, overall invoicing is the range between 18% and 20%, but this is also an area in which PipeLogix is basically irrelevant. Apart from the offshore of Pemex that is influenced by this, in the rest, prices are following a different dynamic.
Arun Jayaram (Research Analyst)
Thank you, sir.
Gabriel Podskubka (COO)
Indeed, the demand of offshore and Middle East, as we said, is high, and the supply is becoming tighter. The pricing trends in the international market is completely different.
Paolo Rocca (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah.
Gabriel Podskubka (COO)
These are the growing parts. This is important, and we are taking advantage of these favorable market conditions and new opportunities, new contracts. We are booking at higher prices, expanding margins versus the past. This could be a favorable result for next year.
Paolo Rocca (Chairman and CEO)
Thank you.
Arun Jayaram (Research Analyst)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. At this time, I would now like to turn the conference back over to Giovanni Sardagna for closing remarks.
Giovanni Sardagna (Director of Investor Relations)
Thank you, Gigi. Well, thank you all for joining us on our quarterly results conference call. Thanks. Bye.
Operator (participant)
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.