Tenaris - Earnings Call - Q3 2025
October 30, 2025
Transcript
Speaker 1
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the third quarter Tenaris S.A. Earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Giovanni Sardagna, Investor Relations Officer. Please go ahead.
Speaker 2
Thank you, Gigi, and welcome to Tenaris S.A. 2025 third quarter conference call. Before we start, I would like to remind you that we will be discussing forward-looking information during the call and that our actual results may vary from those expressed or implied during the call. With me on the call today are Paolo Rocca, our Chairman and CEO, Carlos Gómez Álzaga, our Chief Financial Officer, Gabriel Podskubka, our Chief Operating Officer, and Guillermo Moreno, President of our U.S. Operations. Before passing over the call to Paolo for his opening remarks, I would like to briefly comment on our quarterly results.
Our third quarter sales reached $3 billion, up 2% year on year but down 3% sequentially, mainly reflecting lower sales to the North Sea and lower shipment for offshore line pipe projects in the Middle East, partially offset by a resilient level of sales to our Rig Direct customers in the U.S. and Canada. Average selling prices in our tubes operating segment decreased 1% compared to the corresponding quarter of last year and 1% sequentially. Our EBITDA for the quarter was up 3% sequentially to $753 million, with our EBITDA margin for the quarter at 25%. Our EBITDA for the quarter included a $34 million gain recorded for the return of U.S. anti-dumping deposits paid on OCTG imports from Argentina for which the duty rate has been revised downwards. Without this one-off gain, our EBITDA would have been $719 million or 24% of sales.
With operating cash flow of $318 million and capital expenditure of $185 million, our free cash flow for the quarter was $133 million. After share buybacks for $351 million, our net cash position declined to $3.5 billion.
Speaker 3
At the end of the quarter.
Our.
Speaker 2
Board of Directors approved the payment of an interim dividend of $0.29 per share or $0.58 per ADR to be paid on 26th November. The interim dividend per share is up 7% compared to the interim dividend per share we paid last year. Now I will ask Paolo to say a few words before we open the call.
Speaker 3
Thank you, Giovanni, and good morning to all of you. Our result in the third quarter once again highlight the unique industrial and commercial position we have built around the world with competitive differentiation in key markets as well as an efficient industrial performance in the United States and Canada, where overall rig activity has slowed. We maintain our level of sales thanks to the relative strength of our customer portfolio that, due to their efficient operation, could maintain the level of activity even as oil prices soften. They have chosen to work with us for the long term and appreciate the reliable quality and performance of our product and the benefit that our differential Rig Direct services provide in maintaining the efficiency of their operation.
Considering the high level of tariff rate and trade restriction, we have been increasing production in the United States and Canada to assure a reliable supply of high-quality products to our customers. Our mill in Bay City, in Hickman, and Sault Ste. Marie operated at record level of production and high levels of operational efficiency through the quarter. Around 90% of our U.S. sales of OCTG are produced in the United States, with the remaining 10% being mainly imported for special applications that nobody produces in the United States. In a dynamic and changing world, one of the key strengths of Tenaris is our uniquely flexible global industrial system where we can produce locally in many regions of the world, maintaining the same high level of quality through our fully integrated quality and HSE management system. Two weeks ago, I was in Sault Ste.
Marie to celebrate 25 years of operations in Canada with our employees and the local mayor and the MP. This mill, which is the core of our industrial presence in Canada, was idle when we arrived in 2000. Today, following many years of investment, it is a leading supplier of seamless and welded pipe with accessories and coatings for the Canadian oil and gas industry. Now the industry is expanding through the development of the Montney shale and export of LNG to Asia. To extend the scope of our Rig Direct service in the region, we opened a new service yard in British Columbia while the mill in Sault Ste. Marie is further ramping up production to supply this operation. Offshore projects, especially complex deepwater development which can provide significant new sources of oil and gas to meet the world's growing demand for energy, continue to move forward.
Last quarter we mentioned the contribution we will be making to the Gran Murgu development in Suriname. Now we are also gearing up for the supply of coated seamless riser and flow lines and welded line, export line and casing for the Sakarya Deepwater Development in the Black Sea. With this project, we are building a strong offshore order backlog for deliveries from the middle of next year as we look forward to the confirmation of further major offshore projects. FID in Argentina, the results of the Congressional midterm election are improving the condition for the financing of the development of the Vaca Muerta shale play. Additional rigs are being put into operation. Local companies are raising fresh dollar financing for their operation. While NEI has confirmed its interest in participating in the development of new LNG export facility, Tenaris has also increased its energy production in Argentina.
In September, we started operation at a new 95 megawatt wind farm which in addition to our previously installed 100 megawatt wind farm is now powering our steel shop and pipe facility in Campana. In October, the two wind farms plus a small complement from our thermoelectric plant provided all the power we required for our operation in Campana. With no power purchased from the local network, the new wind farm is a further step toward our goal of reducing carbon emission and improving the sustainability of our operation. Around the world, demand for electric energy is accelerating. Our production line for boiler and heat exchanger pipes in Europe is operating at full capacity. As China continues to increase its overwhelming level of steel export, Europe is also taking action to contain steel import with the strengthening of its steel safeguard measure which should benefit our operation in the region.
In this volatile environment, Tenaris continues to demonstrate the resilience of its operation and financial performance which is allowing us to distribute a cash return of around 11% to shareholders for this year. We can now take any question you may have.
Speaker 1
Thank you. As a reminder to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q and A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram from JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Yeah, good morning. Arun Jayaram from JPMorgan Chase & Co. Paolo, I was wondering if you could maybe elaborate a little bit more on the implications to Tenaris S.A. from the Argentinian elections and perhaps narrowing in the fact that you did mention in the third quarter you saw lower activity levels, some softness in fracking and coiled tubing services. What is your outlook for the fourth quarter in 2026 in Argentina, particularly as you deploy an incremental new build frac fleet?
Speaker 3
Thank you, Roem. I would say that the Argentina election is marking an important turning point. The expectation of the market were for a substantial, let's say, for balanced results. The real results have been a clear victory of the party of President Milei with more than 40%. This has changed, let's say, the perception by the investor about the future, the sustainability, and the ability to continue the transformation plan in Argentina by the present administration. Even if this was a midterm election, it still is changing the proportion and the presence in the Congress in the two chambers. It will allow and give more leeway for the administration for pushing ahead with its transformation plan. This has been combined with very strong support from the American administration and a substantial financial support by the American administration. This has changed its perception and the view of the financial community.
There has been a very important increase in the level of stock exchange in the range of 30%. There has been a substantial reduction in the country risk, almost 400 basis points down, which was not expected or anticipated by the market. This is important because it has changed.
Also.
The willingness of financial operators to support initiative and business in Argentina. The oil company in particular will have enhanced access to foreign financing for their development project. Just in this week, yesterday there has been a first issuance of bonds, the capital with $750 million. In this week also YPF will do something similar. The access to finance by the oil company in our view will be stimulating the level of investment in this moment, or at least in the last six months. The constraint on the finance for operation has been a factor in the decision making for new investment and for big project that could be developed in the coming two, three, four years. We expect that gradually there will be increase in the investment in development of the asset in Vaca Muerta and also a stimulus to long term project.
One example could be the NEI project for LNG. If you refer to the first quarter, I would anticipate some increase in the number of rigs operating in the country. Gradually we will see possibly something more during 2026 and 2027 when more substantial program will proceed. We are positive on Argentina. The election has been a turning point in my view in stimulating the level of activity in the energy sector and not only in the energy sector.
Great, that's super helpful. Paolo, I was wondering if you could maybe provide your thoughts on how margins could trend in the fourth quarter. As you know, in the U.S. the last couple of Pipe Logix index readings have been fractionally down, you know, 1.3% the prior month, 0.5% this, you know, during October. Thoughts around margins in the fourth quarter because I do think the guidance implies relatively flat sales on a sequential basis.
You are right in describing the evolution of one index, relevant index, that is a pipe logic as we mentioned in the last conference call, in a market in which the imported material represents share in the range of 40%. When, like what has been done in June this year of raising the level of tariff to 50%, sooner or later, as we anticipated in last conference call, it will have some impact on the price. The point is that the accumulation of stocks before the set of the tariff in the market and the slight decline in the number of rigs are keeping pressure on prices. As I say, in the last quarter I think that gradually, sooner or later, we will see, let's say, the impact of this situation and the level of price will start to recover on this. More specifically, level of stock.
I would ask Guillermo to have his point of view from inside concerning, let's say, the potential evolution of this in the future.
Speaker 2
Thank you, Paula, and good morning, Arun. Yes, I mean during the first three so far this year we have seen a high level of imports, very high during the first semester. We started to see some decrease in the third quarter, but still we have not seen the full impact of the 50% tariff in those imports. We are expecting further reductions during the current quarter and particularly in the first semester of 2026. That should allow the market to be much more balanced. Today the level of inventories on the ground are around seven months, so above normal levels, and as soon as this happens prices will have some more power to increase. Thank you.
Okay, thanks a lot.
Speaker 1
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Matt Smith from BofA Securities.
Hi there. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to start off with a very strong sales print in the quarter. Some surprise on the mix as well, especially welded sales up in the quarter. You also referenced a bit of a pull forward in Middle East orders. I am just hoping you could reflect on those trends within the quarter and how you expect those mix effects to potentially change or not to change as we head into the fourth quarter.
Speaker 2
Please.
Speaker 3
Thank you, Matt. As you see, we think we had a good level of sales and we also expect for the next quarter to have a level of sales close or in line with the third quarter. There has been strong sales as well, mainly due to two factors. One is OCTG, oil country tubular goods, in the U.S. Areas in which, also to respond to the pressure of tariff, we are substituting some of the intermediate and surface casing with welded product instead of seamless product. This had an impact. The other point is the delivery of the big pipeline, the VMO, the VMOs, as it's called. There is the big oil pipeline that is enhancing the evacuation of Vaca Muerta in the first stage, the 350,000 barrels a day and subsequent 550,000. It's a very big pipeline.
We are finishing the delivery of the pipe for it just in the third quarter. This has been one of the reasons. Looking ahead, it's likely that in the fourth quarter this ratio gets back to the previous levels. I mean, we do not have similar strong delivery for the pipeline. In the case of the OCTG, we will continue to maintain the share of wells. You can expect the diesel could be slightly lower.
Speaker 2
Okay, perfect.
Thank you for all that color. I wanted to change tact onto shareholder distributions if I could. A 7% increase in the interim DPS level today. I mean, given the extent of the cash pile you're still sat on, the strong performance you reported, and the recent sort of announcement with reference to the controlling shareholder family, I just wondered how sustainable the market should view the current buyback level, by which I'm really referring to the $1.2 billion announcement made last year. I mean, that looks like something that's very affordable for 2026 too, from my perspective. I know you still have the $600 million to complete first off of that original announcement, but I was hoping you could already talk to next year's decision and your early thought process there, please.
Speaker 3
What we have in front of us, we will execute the second transfer of the buyback. As you saw, the board approved a level of dividend more or less in line in absolute terms with the previous year, but higher per share due to the buyback impact. This is what we have in front of us, and it will be up to the board to decide what to do once we completed this second buyback. As I mentioned in the opening remark, by the way, the 11% return for shareholder is, let's say, a good showing, a good performance of the company. I mean, in this moment Tenaris has shown resilience in a very volatile environment and delivering to the shareholder, I mean, a very substantial return in our view.
Perfect. Thank you very much. Happy to pass it on.
Speaker 1
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Marc Gregory Bianchi from TD Cowen.
Hi, thank you. The press release commented on some additional tariff cost headwind in 4Q related to this, I guess second 232, 25%. We previously talked about that, I think, being the 25% being equivalent to about $70 million of quarterly EBITDA or quarterly cost. Is that the right way to think about the progression from 3Q to 4Q on an EBITDA basis? It sounds like maybe there could be some offsets. You mentioned the mix of more OCTG. That should be a favorable benefit to margins. Maybe you could help us understand a little bit better the EBITDA progression from 3Q to 4Q.
Speaker 3
Thank you, Marc. In the next quarter, we will see, as I mentioned, maybe some lower volume but substantial sales in line or close to what we have seen in the third quarter. We expect the EBITDA to be lower, in the range of single digit, because of the impact of the tariff in our cost of sales. You know we are paying tariff on the bars of steel that we are bringing into the U.S. for supporting our rolling mill. We pay the 50% tariff on this. This tariff is getting in our inventory and is released gradually while we are proceeding in the cost of goods sold. In the third quarter, we pay a higher number, higher amount compared to what is included in our cost of sale.
In the fourth quarter, we expect an additional, let's say, that this tariff included in our inventory will get into our cost of sale. We will have higher cost of sale for this reason. We expect this in the range of $40 million that will, let's say, affect our EBITDA in absolute terms. There are other factors that could contribute to this. This is our estimate today in terms of the margin, as we anticipated. Also, in the last conference, we continue to expect margin in the range between 20% and 25%, not far, slightly lower than the one we had in the third quarter.
Okay, that's very helpful, thank you. Just to clarify on the starting point for the EBITDA comment, was that the $753 million that included the $34 million gain, or are you excluding that when you talk about being down single digits?
No, no, I'm talking about the adjusted EBITDA because I'm considering the EBITDA without, let's say, the recovery we are on the anti-dumping. We think that considering this, there is a normalized EBITDA. In the coming quarter, we will have a lower EBITDA for the reason that I mentioned.
Yep, very clear. Thank you. The other question I had was on the, I think last quarter we talked about some pipe that had been shipped from Asia before the second round of 232, and that was still in transit and that needed to get landed and integrated into the market before things stabilized, I guess. I mean, I understand that you mentioned the inventory on the ground is still a bit of a problem, but how do we see this type in transit issue playing out?
Guillermo, maybe you can say if this is how this situation evolved.
Speaker 2
Yes, yes, this is correct. Mark said, I mean the impact of the additional 25% that were implemented in June. We said that we were going to start the full effect of this during the fourth quarter of the year, and this is what we expect. Now, due to the shutdown of the government in the U.S., we don't have input statistics, but our understanding is that they are going down, and we will see further reductions in the following quarters.
Got it.
Speaker 3
Thank you.
Speaker 1
Thank you.
I'll turn it back.
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes in the line of Alessandro Pozzi from Mediobanca.
Hi, good afternoon, and thank you for taking the questions.
Speaker 3
The first one is on the outlook.
You provided a good description of what.
You think is going to happen in Q4. Any chance you can venture a little bit further out in Q1 and see what could be the main moving parts as we go into 2026? Also, while we are on the topic, maybe any color on the level of tenders that you expect, Middle East and the deepwater for 2026. The second question is on Q3, some sales, especially in North America. It feels like you are gaining some market share. If you can maybe elaborate a bit more on the reason for the increase in sales in Q3 despite lower rig counts in the U.S., of course, not all U.S. will be appreciated. Thank you. Yeah, thank you.
Alessandro, just on the first point, which is the forecast, it will be very relevant what's happened with the tariff because just to summarize, today we are paying every quarter an amount in the range of $150 million for this, for this tariff. As I said before, in the third quarter, only part, a substantial part of this enters into our cost of sales. Looking ahead in the coming quarter, we will have increasing cost getting into our cost of sales. On the other side, we are taking action to reduce the tariff by increasing production in the States for steel, for pipe. We expect production in our steel plant to increase from now on continuously and contribute to a reduction in our import of this. Also, we are expanding our production in pipe, so some of the import that is complementing our sale will be reduced.
We have our own plan for reducing this, but there is also the negotiation underway. All the countries from which we are shipping steel into the States, Argentina, Mexico, Europe from Italy and Romania, have a negotiating table with the United States and there could be some reduction or negotiation that may affect the 232 for steel. In this case for steel, semi-finished product, not for finished product probably. This is not predictable today, but I expect that over time with Argentina, due to the relation, the special relation that has been established between President Trump, President Milei and the administration, there could be a discussion on this. With Europe also, maybe there could be an agreement in line with the UK agreement, and with Mexico also there could be a negotiating table. This will be relevant and will affect our performance also in the coming quarter.
In the medium term, probably we won't see any change here in the fourth quarter apart from what I mentioned. Looking in 2026, we need to consider also the potential change in the level of tariff for our steel bars on top of what we can do ourselves as far as the Middle East and the situation in this. I will ask Gabriel to comment on this.
Speaker 2
Thank you, Paolo. Good morning, Alessandro. Middle East business I would say is overall stable at good levels. If we break down the important components, Saudi, as you know, has been decreasing activity in the first half of the year, but we see this drop in rigs stabilized. We believe that Saudi has bottomed in its drilling activity, and even there are some early indications that there might be a rebound of rigs into 2026. This is something a bit too early for us to factor in our forecast. Another component of our business in Saudi is our pipeline business, and last month in September we started deliveries of the large CCS pipeline. This is something that will accompany us well into 2026, so line pipe offsetting some of the lower OCTG in Saudi.
Speaker 3
When we look outside Saudi, the key.
Speaker 2
Producers in the GCC, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, they're all pressing ahead increasing capacity and offsetting depletion in line with the call of OPEC of increasing crude production. We see those plans steadily going ahead. Qatar, which is more of an LNG story, we see Qatar Gas preparing for the new campaign of the North Field West 50 wells that will probably supply towards the end of 2026 and 2027. Overall, a lot of moving pieces, but I would say Middle East stable and resilient into next year. There was also a comment on offshore, Alessandro. We commented that the achievement for offshore in the second half was a bit lower than the first half where we had a lot of offshore pipelines in Brazil, in Sub-Saharan Africa, that were not repeated in the second half. As Paolo mentioned in the opening remarks, we are building a strong backlog into 2026.
The Sakarya Phase 3 is a good example. We are seeing some other projects moving ahead with likely FID in the first part of the year. Overall, we are pretty much positive and constructive on the contribution of offshore into 2026.
Speaker 3
Thank you, Gabriel. On the last point, that is the market share, I think we are gaining some market share, but let me tell you, I think the reality is that our clients are gaining market share for different reasons in the space of North America. I will ask Guillermo to comment on this, even if this is, in your view, sustainable.
Speaker 2
Yes, I think that it is sustainable. Our clients are mainly the large operators that have shown much more resilience than the smallest one, and we expect this to continue. Now, regarding the correlation of demand of OCTG with rig count there, we need to be very careful because as we have explained in other conference calls, most of the predictors, particularly ours, are increasing productivity and efficiency, and therefore the impact on the demand of OCTG is on the downward trend is lower than if you just take into account the rig count. You need to take both into account. Indeed, our market share has slightly increased due to the resilience of our clients.
Speaker 3
Thank you.
Okay, I would just ask.
Yeah, I would add just one comment. The large operator are more resilient in front of a perception of a reduction of the price of oil. They have more productive play. They operate in more productive play. They have better efficiencies. The operator we are serving tends to be more stable, resilient, even when the perception of price of oil over time may be subdued. Consider, let's say maybe months ago.
Speaker 2
Okay.
Okay.
Speaker 3
Sorry, you mentioned intensity. Can you give us maybe an update on where we are in terms of intensity now versus, let's say, a year ago and how much improvement there was?
Speaker 2
Yeah, you mean OCTG consumption.
Speaker 3
Yeah, that's right. Yeah.
Speaker 2
I would say that it's around 2 to 3% higher. If you see a breakdown reduction of 5%, you need to consider that half of this has been compensated by increase of productivity.
Right.
The days that it takes them to drill well, but also because they are expensive and in their lateral length.
Speaker 3
Thank you very much. Thank you.
Speaker 1
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Sebastian Erskine from Redburn (Europe) Limited.
Yeah, hi, good morning. Thanks very much for taking my questions. The first one just on Mexico, you secured some work from Woodside for the Trion project. I think recent news flow more broadly has been positive for Mexico as kind of Pemex's strategic plan is being threshed out, and you know, the mixed contracts are being signed. In your view, how much of a factor is Mexico going to be on a volume perspective in 2026 versus this year? What's the potential upside from that region?
Speaker 3
Sorry, for the region you were mentioning. Which region? Can you repeat?
Yeah, sure. Just in Mexico, just obviously, yeah.
First of all, on the question of Trion and other private company that are, let's say, operating, what we see is that this is start to moving on in different direction. Also, some of the contract, the new contract that Pemex is giving for drilling are moving on. The first one has been assigned. This will imply additional drilling in Mexico. This is one point, including the project like Trion at Woodside that are going on. Second point is the financial situation of Pemex after the refinancing operation for $12 billion. Pemex is more, I mean, is a recovering ability to consider, let's say, payment to the supplier. During the third quarter we didn't receive, but now we are receiving payment, and we expect during the fourth quarter to receive substantial payment on our receivable. Have you noticed the receivable has been going up?
One of the reason has been the delay in Pemex, but we expect this to improve, and we expect the, let's say, the recovery in the financial reason of Pemex to have an impact some moment in our. For the visibility that we have in the coming quarter, we do not see a major change, but we consider the refinancing a signal that over time during 2026 there will be additional activity by the private company and maybe hopefully by Pemex also.
Really appreciate that. Just a quick one on kind of unit raw material costs. It looks like you benefited from some kind of meaningful deflation in the third quarter, particularly in hot rolled coil. Can you give an update on what you're expecting on the input costs into the fourth quarter and some of the moving parts kind of ex tariff.
We do not expect major change because the situation of high inventory that is basically containing the impact of tariff is also something that is to some extent affecting the hot rolled coils. I mean the price of hot rolled coils is higher but is not higher as much as one could have expected.
For.
The size of the increase in the import of this. I think that maybe, Carlos, you looking at the impact of hot rolled coils on our cost of sales, you can add something. I don't see.
Speaker 2
Major change in small increase for next quarter and then flat and going down. The effect that we are going to see in our costs next quarter is the effect of tariffs. As you mentioned already, the impact of tariffs in our cost of goods sold will increase during this quarter to achieve almost the full effect of the tariffs.
Yes, super. Thanks very much for the color, Paolo and Tim. I'll hand it back now. Thank you.
Speaker 1
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of J. David Anderson from Barclays Bank PLC.
Great, thank you.
Speaker 2
Just want to get back to the.
Middle East if we could please, specifically on the emerging unconventional resource plays in Saudi Arabia and UAE. Aramco just signed contracts in the third phase of Jafurah is now planning.
To drill something on the order of.
400 or 500 wells next year in the UAE. ADNOC has recently talked about 300 wells.
Annually starting drilling in 2027.
Presumably all that's going to be seamless.
As it is in the US, I was wondering if you could talk about this opportunity for Tenaris. I mean, if we just kind of.
Run the rough numbers here, this seems like a pretty substantial uptick if we.
Kind of use the same numbers that we see in the US shale.
Apply that over there. Can you just talk about how important this is for your Middle East business?
Over the next couple years, please? Thank you.
Speaker 3
Thank you, David and Gabriel.
Speaker 2
Yeah, David, indeed we're excited about the unconventional opportunity in the Middle East. As you mentioned, this is something that is not new. Jafura has been there and increasing rigs steadily over the last three years since the development started. This is an area that we are participating as of today. We have an important share in the seamless unconventional space in Saudi, and that also demands pipelines for connectivity and transportation of gas in the kingdom. This is exciting and is the part that has been more resilient in the decrease of rigs of Saudi that I was referring to before. Clearly, the gas development in Saudi is the most resilient as they are targeting to replace oil for internal consumption. Going to UAE, there is also an opportunity of unconventional.
It's a bit smaller, but ADNOC is accelerating their own operations and with partners that they are bringing in, and they have some partnership of some concessions, and there we're also leading in terms of market share and position of that unconventional play. Within the broad scope of supply that we have with ADNOC, unconventional is an area that we are participating and leading. It's an area we expect growth as well going forward.
Just a quick follow up. Where do you source that pipe? I don't think you manufacture any seamless in the Middle East. I know you've got a welded facility. I think you have a JV with.
Aramco in Saudi Arabia, I don't think.
You have any seamless production over there. Where do you source that? From projects like these. That's a lot of pipe. Yeah.
In Saudi Arabia, for pipelines, we source domestically for our SAW large OD pipeline mill in Jubail.
Speaker 3
When you go to the OCTG side.
Speaker 2
There is a mixed string of welded and seamless. The welded, we produce ERW welded for surface casing domestically sourced from coils of Saudi and our production of pipes in the Kingdom. For the seamless component, we source line pipe from the local mills in Saudi. We finish to our connection when we go to UAE. All our material is brought from our main mills in Argentina and Mexico and to a large extent also threaded in our finishing facility that we have in Abu Dhabi. It's a mix of combination of pieces with a heavy component of domestically produced.
Speaker 1
Great.
Gabriel, thank you for the insight.
Speaker 2
Appreciate it. Thank you, David.
Speaker 1
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Kevin Roger from Kepler Cheuvreux.
Speaker 3
Yes, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the time.
I have two if I may.
The first one is on the profitability of the business based on the region, the different region. I was wondering if you can give a bit of color on where.
Do you stand U.S. versus international right?
Now in terms of profitability, is there any big difference or are things normalizing close to the same level? That would be the first question, please. The second one is related to the working capital and maybe you have in a way given the answer with Pemex, but just trying to understand the $300 million negative movement in working capital in Q3. When you say that it's an increase in receivable, is it something in a way one-off that you expect to recover in Q4? Is there something else beyond this movement? Please. Thank you, Kevin. On the first line, you know, Tenaris is selling in the different regions a very diversified portfolio of products. It's pretty difficult to say profitability for the market.
For instance, when we're talking about offshore, depending if it is in Africa, in the Gulf, in Southeast Asia, or in the Mediterranean, we have a range of products including pipeline line pipe with coating that, following our acquisition of Shockery in some cases, represent an invoicing even superior or higher than the invoicing on pipes. It's difficult to differentiate on region. We have differentiation due by product. Some of the more competitive products are the onshore welded line pipe. There are examples in Argentina or in Saudi Arabia. These are, let's say, the tail of our profitability, while the most profitable area could be the line pipe coated with insulation for complex offshore product. In the U.S. there is an average, but still in the U.S. there are also differentiation between production casing and surface casing or tubing. I wouldn't say that this is a regionally driven profitability impact.
I would say it is more derived by the mix of different projects and sales. When we talk about working capital, you have seen the increase in the working capital. This is driven by the delay in payment of Pemex, and this is something that we expect will be going in the opposite direction in the fourth quarter. The other component of the increasing stock that is due to the incorporation of tariff into our stock will probably stay at the same level. The inventory has a higher cost inventory or bars because of the impact of the tariff. As we mentioned, the tariff had an impact in the third quarter in the range of $80 million and will increase something in the range of $40 million incorporating in our inventory in the fourth quarter. This is the reason for some lower EBITDA.
It is also something that will remain relatively high. There is all that we can do in speeding up the receivable of some other area like Middle East that maybe may contribute to an improvement, let's say to reduction of the need of working capital during the fourth quarter. In this sense, 32 has been a kind of extraordinary, I would say, in terms of absorption. Okay, perfect.
Thanks a lot for that.
Thanks.
Speaker 1
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Rudman from BNP Paribas Exane.
Thank you very much for your time. I had a quick question on inventory.
Speaker 3
Levels in the US and where you.
Expect imports to fade quicker. Would that be more on the seamless or the welded front? Where are inventories higher on either product? Secondly, you put out a press release earlier this month. Earlier this month, I think it was talking about some foul spin now being included in the buyback process. I just wanted to confirm whether there's any change here. Anything else we should know about on that change in positioning?
Thank you. Sorry, can you repeat the second question just to be sure and understand you?
Your largest shareholder is now wanting to be included in the buyback process. I believe this is a change from its previous positioning.
Speaker 2
I just want to understand whether.
You're aware of any change in positioning here.
Speaker 3
Yeah, okay, understood. Now the first one is on inventory here, Guillermo, if you can.
Speaker 2
Yes. When we look at the imports, it's more on welded pipes than on seamless. Regarding the increase of inventories on the ground that we have seen lately, it has also been higher on the ERW than in seamless. Now, looking forward, the expectation is that both seamless inventories on the ground will go down.
Speaker 3
Yes. On the second one, the controlling shareholder has informed that he may start selling shares but will not go below a certain threshold. We will see this in the public information because the shareholder also by the rule is indicating when the movements are above the 1%. This is what we can see, we can say about this.
Speaker 1
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Rodrigo Almeida from Santander.
Speaker 2
Hi everyone. Just a couple questions here from my side. The first one, I'm not sure if we talked about this during the call, but it's regarding Argentina, right. Regarding the oil field services business in Argentina, if you could give us an update on how things evolving there. We talked a little bit about the Argentina macro environment, but how could this business say, help results?
Maybe over the next few quarters?
I think this would be nice to hear from you. I have another question here.
When we look into South America, we.
Saw a nice contract recently signed with Petrobras, which I suppose could somewhat offset the Raya project that just ended. If you could give us some color on how we could think about.
This automatic operation is going forward.
Speaker 3
Thank you, Rodrigo. About Argentina, as I comment, I think the oil company, including YPF and all the others, will have more access to financing and willingness of the fund, the investor of support. This has been clearly reacting to the results of the election in a very positive way. What does this mean for us? It means additional rigs that are coming into operation gradually because you cannot bring it. The number of rigs idle in the country is almost zero now, so will increase only slightly. There will be action to bring into the country additional rigs for operation during 2026. It means that fracking operation will increase and this is important for our division that is doing fracking in Argentina.
We can expect increase in invoicing by our fracking operation and all by our sales of pipe and services over time will not be immediate, but will have an impact in the coming quarter. More sales now in the line pipe. You know, the project of LNG, the CESAR project promoted by Pan American, together with partners like YPF and so on, is going on. In the present situation we will see the tender and the FID has been done in June. We expect in 2026 that the process of construction of pipeline will start and also the assignment of the contract for the pipes. This kind of movement is important from our point of view and will enhance the market for us. In the case of Petrobras, I will ask Gabriel to comment on the contract.
Speaker 2
Yeah, thank you, Paolo. Rodrigo. In terms of drilling activity in Brazil, we see a steadily increasing by Petrobras and the other majors that are playing in the deep water play in Brazil. There are many moving parts of the supply of Tenaris both in OCTG and line pipe. In the OCTG, we have long term agreements with Petrobras and the other majors for their large ODs connectors which we produce locally in our facility in Capuava. We are also suppliers in certain fields of the seamless casing as well with Petrobras. We also have an important contract for completions of 13 Chrome and CRA given the sour service conditions of completions in Petrobras. We believe that these together with the pipelines, the seamless pipeline bookings that are also carrying insulation coats I mentioned, I believe in the last two calls, Búzios 9 and Búzios 11.
The contribution of these different segments will contribute to offset the conclusion of the big Rota 3 pipeline that we had and we enjoyed until the first half of this year. A lot of moving parts and it's very interesting the breadth of the portfolio and the position that has in Brazil. Thank you, Gabriel.
Thank you.
Speaker 1
Thank you. At this time, I would now like to turn the conference back over to Giovanni Sardagna for closing remarks.
Speaker 3
Thank you, Gigi.
Speaker 2
Thank you all for joining us. I hope to see you soon around, and thank you.
Speaker 1
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.