Executive Summary

Q3 results were below expectations: revenue $743.2M vs S&P Global consensus $792.0M (miss), Adjusted EBITDA $30.4M vs $46.3M (miss), and Adjusted EPS $(2.41) vs $(1.90) (miss). Headwinds were lower volumes and mix, competitive pricing in Europe/Asia, $9M unfavorable timing, and negative AmSty equity income tied to an unplanned outage *.
GAAP net loss was $(109.7)M (diluted EPS $(3.05)), worse vs prior quarter and prior year; gross profit fell sharply vs last year on weaker volumes/margins, partly offset by restructuring savings .
Management cut FY outlook: FY Adjusted EBITDA now $167–$177M (from ~$200M) and FY net loss $(408)–$(418)M (from ~$(320)M). Q4 guide: Adjusted EBITDA $30–$40M, FCF ~$20M, year-end liquidity ~$365M .
Strategic actions intensified: cease virgin MMA in Italy and seek PS closure in Germany, targeting ~$30M annualized profitability improvement and $10M lower capex; cash costs $60–$70M over three years. Dividend suspended (save ~$1.5M/yr). Sustainability initiatives progressed (rSM supply integration) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Engineered Materials resilience: segment Adjusted EBITDA was flat YoY at $33.8M despite lower volumes; mix and restructuring helped offset medical weakness .
Growth platforms and sustainability traction: battery binders volumes +27% YoY in Q3; company working with 5 of the top 15 Li-ion battery producers; recycled-content volumes in EM up 12% YTD; launched portfolio using chemically recycled styrene monomer (rSM) via Indaver .
Liquidity management: ended Q3 with total liquidity of $346M (cash $114M of which $2M restricted) and expects Q4 FCF of ~$20M and year-end liquidity of ~$365M .

Management quote: “We will remain intensely focused on what is in our control, including improving our free cash flow in the short and long term through working capital management, restructuring activities and other actions.”

What Went Wrong

Broad demand and pricing pressure: net sales down 14% YoY on lower volumes across all segments and margin compression in Polymer Solutions and Latex Binders, particularly in Europe .
Polymer Solutions and AmSty drag: Polymer Solutions Adjusted EBITDA fell to $4.1M (down $19M YoY) on unfavorable timing, lower ABS volumes, and mix; AmSty equity income was $(2.4)M with an ~$8M outage headwind .
Estimate misses and guidance cut: revenue, Adj EBITDA, and Adj EPS all missed S&P Global consensus; FY Adj EBITDA cut to $167–$177M (from ~$200M), FY net loss widened to $(408)–$(418)M (from ~$(320)M) *.

Financial Results

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q3 2025 S&P Global Consensus
Revenue ($ USD Millions)	$867.7	$784.3	$743.2	$792.0*
Gross Profit ($ USD Millions)	$80.6	$36.6	$37.4	—
Net Loss ($ USD Millions)	$(87.3)	$(105.5)	$(109.7)	—
Diluted EPS (GAAP)	$(2.47)	$(2.95)	$(3.05)	—
Adjusted EBITDA ($ USD Millions)	$66.1	$41.6	$30.4	$46.3*
EBITDA ($ USD Millions)	$36.7	$26.3	$25.6	—
Adjusted Net Loss ($ USD Millions)	$(57.5)	$(75.6)	$(86.7)	—
Adjusted EPS	$(1.62)	$(2.12)	$(2.41)	$(1.90)*

Consensus values marked with * are from S&P Global. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown

Segment	Net Sales Q3 2024 ($M)	Net Sales Q3 2025 ($M)	Adj EBITDA Q3 2024 ($M)	Adj EBITDA Q3 2025 ($M)
Engineered Materials	$294.5	$273.5	$33.5	$33.8
Latex Binders	$241.9	$198.3	$25.5	$16.9
Polymer Solutions	$331.3	$271.4	$23.4	$4.1
Americas Styrenics (equity income)	—	—	$4.0	$(2.4)
Corporate Unallocated	—	—	$(20.3)	$(22.0)
Total	$867.7	$743.2	$66.1	$30.4

KPIs and Liquidity

KPI	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Cash from Operations ($M)	$8.8	$6.8	$(21.6)
Capital Expenditures ($M)	$(12.2)	$(9.8)	$(16.5)
Free Cash Flow ($M)	$(3.4)	$(3.0)	$(38.1)
Ending Cash ($M)	$165.3	$137.0	$114.3 (cash & restricted)
Total Liquidity ($M)	—	$399	$346

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance (as of Q2 release)	Current Guidance (Q3)	Change
Net Loss	FY 2025	~$(320)M	$(408)–$(418)M	Lowered
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2025	~$200M	$167–$177M	Lowered
Free Cash Flow	FY 2025	~$(165)M	~$(140)M	Raised (less negative)
Net Loss	Q4 2025	—	$(170)–$(180)M	New
Adjusted EBITDA	Q4 2025	—	$30–$40M incl. $(5)–$(10)M timing headwind	New
Free Cash Flow	Q4 2025	—	~$20M	New
Year-end Liquidity	12/31/2025	—	~$365M	New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q1 2025 (prior)	Q2 2025 (prior)	Q3 2025 (current)	Trend
Tariffs/trade flows	>95% produced/sold in-region; tariffs depress China demand; possible positives for local supply	Seasonal volumes suppressed; EU pre-disclosure on ABS dumping (Korea/Taiwan)	Sharp rise in Asian polymer imports; USMCA transshipment concern; late-Q3 uptick in formulated demand in EU/US	Negative but showing early mix shift to formulated; policy actions pending
Battery binders	Platform growing; grid and mobility wins; low penetration of top-15	+19% YoY; working with 5 of top 15 producers	+27% YoY in Q3; continued design wins	Positive acceleration
Americas Styrenics	Q1 $(2)M with timing/outage impacts; expected better ahead	$8M below prior year; outage impacts; improve in H2	Q3 $(2.4)M; ~$8M outage cost headwind through P&L	Still weak; recovery dependent on operations/market
Restructuring/footprint	Ongoing cost saves; polycarbonate licensing	Delivering ~$105M self-help; cash conversion cycle improvement	Cease virgin MMA in Italy; intend to close German PS; ~$30M profit uplift and $10M lower capex	Intensifying actions
Sustainability/circularity	CSR progress, recycled content growth	Achieved key sustainability goals	Integrating rSM into PS/ABS/SAN via Indaver partnership	Structural progress
Macro/rates	—	—	Rate cuts cited as a demand and interest expense tailwind; 100 bps = ~$19M cash interest reduction	Potential tailwind

Management Commentary

“Third quarter volumes were reflective of the demand environment we have seen over the last three years… tariff uncertainty has disrupted trade flows and negatively affected consumer and customer sentiment.” — Frank Bozich, CEO
“We ended the third quarter with $30 million of adjusted EBITDA, which was impacted by $9 million of unfavorable raw material timing and negative equity affiliate earnings from Americas Styrenics due to an $8 million headwind from an unplanned outage.” — David Stasse, CFO
“A 10% volume increase across the portfolio results in about $100 million of EBITDA.” — Frank Bozich
“We are currently working closely with five of the 15 largest lithium ion battery producers in the world.” — David Stasse

Q&A Highlights

Structural vs transitory imports: Management cannot yet judge; most inflows from Taiwan/Korea; highlighted USMCA compounding “loophole” via Mexico that policymakers are seeking to close .
AmSty outage mechanics: Styrene outage forced higher-cost styrene purchases; ~$8M third-quarter impact flowed through COGS; cumulative ~$10M equity income headwind across Q2–Q3 .
2026 framing: No guidance, but reiterated EBITDA sensitivity of ~$100M per 10% volume move and focus on controllables; 100 bps rate cuts reduce cash interest by ~$19M .
Formulated PMMA demand: Late-Q3/early-Q4 run-rate improved; possible reshoring/derisking of Asian supply chains, but too early to call a trend .

Estimates Context

Revenue: $743.2M vs $792.0M S&P Global consensus — miss (–6.2%); Adjusted EBITDA: $30.4M vs $46.3M — miss; Adjusted EPS: $(2.41) vs $(1.90) — miss *.
Street likely to reduce FY models after guidance cut (Adj EBITDA $167–$177M; net loss $(408)–$(418)M) and weaker segment profitability in Polymer Solutions and Latex; however, Q4 FCF guide (~~$20M) and liquidity (~~$365M) may temper balance sheet concerns .
Consensus values marked with * are from S&P Global. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Mixed but generally negative quarter vs expectations: broad-based demand/margin pressure and outage impacts led to misses on revenue, Adj EBITDA, and Adj EPS; FY guide reset lower should drive estimate cuts and weighs on near-term sentiment *.
Strategic footprint actions accelerating (MMA exit in Italy; PS consolidation in Europe) with targeted ~$30M annual profit uplift and $10M lower capex; cash costs $60–$70M phased through 2028 and expected to be offset by savings each year .
Liquidity adequate into year-end: $346M at Q3 and guided to ~$365M at year-end; Q4 FCF positive ~$20M; near-term focus on working capital and cost execution remains critical as demand uncertainty persists .
Growth vectors intact: formulated products and battery binders continue to outgrow markets; company deepening relationships across top-tier battery producers; sustainability-enabled offerings (rSM, recycled content) support mix/pricing over time .
Macro/policy optionality: trade policy clarity, EU anti-dumping outcomes, and rate cuts are key external catalysts; each could improve demand, pricing, and interest expense, providing upside to depressed run-rate profitability .
Watch AmSty trajectory: outage impacts should abate, but styrene/polystyrene margin environment remains challenged; any improvement would be incremental to Q4 guide .
Execution priority: deliver Q4 cash/EBITDA guide, progress footprint restructuring, and defend margins in Europe/Asia to rebuild confidence and re-rate equity.

Notes:

All company figures and commentary are sourced from Trinseo’s Q3 2025 press release and 8-K exhibits, investor presentation, and earnings call transcript . Prior-quarter comparisons sourced from Q2 and Q1 press releases, 8-Ks, and calls .
Consensus/Street figures are from S&P Global and marked with an asterisk; Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Trinseo PLC (TSE)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary