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TYSON FOODS, INC. (TSN)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Tyson Foods delivered year-over-year top- and bottom-line growth: Sales $13.62B (+2.3% YoY), GAAP Operating Income $580M (+151%), Adjusted Operating Income $659M (+60%), GAAP EPS $1.01 (+237%), Adjusted EPS $1.14 (+65%). Management characterized it as “our best quarterly performance in more than two years” and the third consecutive quarter of YoY growth .
- Chicken segment was the standout: GAAP Operating Income $351M (8.6% margin) and Adjusted Operating Income $368M (9.1% margin), the best adjusted operating income of any quarter in the last 8 years per management .
- Guidance raised: FY25 Total Company Adjusted Operating Income to $1.9–$2.3B (from $1.8–$2.2B), Sales flat to +1% (from down 1% to flat), Chicken AOI to $1.0–$1.3B (from $1.0–$1.2B); capex, tax, interest unchanged; FCF updated to $1.0–$1.6B .
- Balance sheet and cash: Liquidity $4.5B; CFO generated $1.03B; Free cash flow $760M; Net leverage at 2.3x (sequential improvement), with $750M term loan repayment in January per call commentary .
- Near-term stock catalysts: guidance raise driven by chicken execution, continued margin expansion, and disciplined cash flow; watch tariff developments (Mexico/Canada), beef cycle headwinds, and Prepared Foods input cost inflation impacting margins .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record Chicken profitability and execution: “best adjusted operating income of any quarter over the past 8 years,” driven by lower grain costs, live ops and plant performance, and improved order fill (>98%) .
- Enterprise momentum: “third consecutive quarter of year-over-year increases in sales, adjusted operating income and adjusted EPS,” with total adjusted operating margin up to 4.8% .
- Guidance raise and cash discipline: Total Company AOI raised to $1.9–$2.3B; FCF guided to $1.0–$1.6B; maintained capex at $1.0–$1.2B; net leverage down to 2.3x and $750M term loan repaid in January .
What Went Wrong
- Prepared Foods margin pressure from input costs (belly and sow): AOI down QoQ and YoY; segment GAAP margin 8.5% (vs 9.6% prior-year); management expects price pass-through and operational improvements to offset over the year .
- Pork spreads compressed: GAAP operating margin 3.6% (vs 2.6% prior-year), adjusted AOI down YoY, with haul/cutout dynamics cited; management still expects FY AOI $0.1–$0.2B .
- Beef still in loss due to cattle cycle: GAAP operating loss $(64)M (−1.2% margin), adjusted loss $(32)M; FY25 guidance unchanged at $(0.4)–$(0.2)B adjusted loss; typical Q2 seasonality expected .
Financial Results
Consolidated Results vs Prior Periods and Prior Year
Segment Breakdown – Q1 2025 (GAAP and Adjusted)
KPIs and Balance Sheet – Q1 2025
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Fiscal year 2025 is off to a strong start… best quarterly performance in more than two years… exceptional results in chicken.” – Donnie King, President & CEO .
- “Adjusted operating income increased by $248 million… margin expanded by 170 bps… adjusted EPS grew by 65%… net leverage at 2.3x… building financial strength.” – Donnie King .
- “In chicken, we achieved the best adjusted operating income of any quarter over the past 8 years… evolution of commercial relationships… improved order fill rates for the second consecutive year.” – Donnie King .
- “We are raising our sales guidance (flat to +1%) and total company adjusted operating income to $1.9–$2.3 billion; interest ~$375M; tax ~25%; capex $1.0–$1.2B; FCF $1.0–$1.6B.” – Curt Calaway, CFO .
- “International delivered record quarterly adjusted operating income, supported by strong results in Asia.” – Curt Calaway .
Q&A Highlights
- Tariffs: Management confirmed contingency planning to re-route pork and chicken products if Mexico imposes tariffs; guidance incorporates risk adjustments; Canada flows small for chicken but noted for feeder cattle and hogs .
- Beef cadence and cycle: Seasonality expected to challenge Q2; cycle viewed near trough with improving pasture conditions and cow harvest down ~19% YoY; guidance unchanged at $(0.4)–$(0.2)B adjusted loss .
- Prepared Foods margin recovery: Input cost spikes pressured Q1 margins; plan relies on distribution growth, innovation (Griddle Cakes >$100M L52W), and operational efficiencies to meet AOI guidance ($0.9–$1.1B) .
- Chicken guidance lower bound: Top end raised; lower bound unchanged due to external risks (weather, bird health); fundamentals solid; supply/demand balanced .
- Capital allocation & leverage: Net leverage improved to 2.3x; $750M term loan repaid in January; priorities: financial strength, invest for growth/profit, return cash via dividends (13th consecutive annual increase) .
- Leadership: Announcement of forthcoming poultry leadership transition later in FY25; succession plan in place .
Estimates Context
- SPGI/Capital IQ consensus for Q1 2025 EPS and revenue was unavailable due to S&P Global daily request limit at the time of retrieval; as such, specific consensus values and beats/misses vs estimates cannot be provided. Values would normally be retrieved from S&P Global.
- Implications: Given actual Adjusted EPS $1.14 and AOI strength, sell-side models may raise FY25 Chicken and Total AOI assumptions; Prepared Foods margin trajectory may be smoothed for Q2–Q4 to reflect pass-through and productivity; Beef likely maintained at the guided loss range .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Chicken profitability inflection is durable, supported by operational execution and commercial alignment; sustained high single-digit adjusted margins and volume growth in foodservice are supportive of multiple expansion within protein peers .
- The guidance raise (Total AOI, Sales) aligns with continued enterprise margin expansion; cash generation supports deleveraging and dividend continuity .
- Watch for Q2 seasonality (weather, beef spreads) and Prepared Foods input costs; management expects a more balanced first/second half with improvements ramping through the year .
- Tariff risk is present but contingency planning and diversified markets mitigate impact; guidance already risk-adjusted .
- International/Other is turning from headwind to contributor, particularly in Asia, offering incremental margin support .
- Non-GAAP adjustments (network optimization $73M, brand discontinuation $6M, Netherlands-related items) boosted adjusted results; continued network optimization should aid efficiency but monitor one-time effects .
- Near-term trading: Positive catalyst from guidance raise and Chicken momentum; potential volatility around tariff headlines and beef cycle prints; medium-term thesis hinges on operational excellence, innovation in Prepared Foods, and disciplined capital allocation .