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TYSON FOODS, INC. (TSN)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025 delivered revenue of $13.88B (+4.0% y/y), Adjusted Operating Income of $505M (+3% y/y) and Adjusted EPS of $0.91 (+5% y/y), while GAAP EPS fell to $0.17 due to a $343M non-deductible goodwill impairment in Beef .
- Results beat S&P Global consensus on both Adjusted EPS ($0.91 vs $0.78*) and revenue ($13.88B vs $13.56B*); this marks the fifth consecutive quarter of y/y growth across sales, AOI and Adjusted EPS *.
- Guidance raised: Total company Adjusted OI range to $2.1–$2.3B (prior $1.9–$2.3B), sales up 2–3% (prior flat to +1%), Chicken AOI to $1.3–$1.4B (prior $1.0–$1.3B); FCF narrowed to $1.0–$1.3B and CapEx “at or below” $1.0B .
- Beef headwinds intensified (Adjusted OI loss guided to $(475)–$(375)M) amid tight cattle supply; management highlighted heifer retention starting and herd rebuild tailwinds beyond 2026; Board declared $0.50/$0.45 quarterly dividend and expanded buyback authorization by 43M shares (≈50M total) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Prepared Foods: Adjusted OI up 21% y/y; margin +150 bps on innovation, distribution gains, and operational execution (fill rates >98%, highest since 2019) .
- Chicken: Third straight quarter of volume growth; value‑added volume grew ~3.5x total segment volume; Adjusted OI +12% y/y on plant efficiencies and favorable mix .
- Multi‑protein diversification and execution contributed to AOI and EPS growth despite Beef pressure; management reiterated “fifth consecutive quarter” of y/y growth and stronger balance sheet (net leverage down to 2.1x) .
What Went Wrong
- Beef: GAAP OI fell to $(494)M (‑8.8% margin) and Adjusted OI to $(151)M due to compressed spreads from higher cattle costs; recorded $343M non‑deductible goodwill impairment .
- Corporate tax rate spiked (64.5%) due to non‑deductible impairment; GAAP EPS fell 69% y/y to $0.17 .
- Raw material inflation: ~$60M unplanned cost increase in Prepared Foods during Q3; management offset via execution and mix but narrowed segment AOI guidance amid seasonal raw material peaks .
Financial Results
Headline financials vs prior periods
Year-over-year comparison (Q3 y/y)
Segment breakdown (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)
Non-GAAP adjustments (Q3 2025)
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Sales, adjusted operating income and adjusted earnings per share all grew year over year, marking our fifth consecutive quarter of year over year growth… Our strategy is working” — Donnie King, CEO .
- “We are raising the midpoint and narrowing the range for total company adjusted operating income… $2.1–$2.3 billion” — Curt Calaway, CFO .
- “Cattle availability at record lows… heifer retention has begun… herd rebuilding will begin in earnest in 2026” — Donnie King/Brady Stewart .
- “Prepared Foods… best quarter ever… roughly $60 million of unplanned raw material increase in the quarter” — Donnie King .
- “We ended the quarter with $4.0 billion in liquidity and net leverage at 2.1x… restarted open market share repurchases” — Curt Calaway .
Q&A Highlights
- Beef outlook and impairment: Management detailed prolonged cycle dynamics, rising carrying value with higher cattle costs, and signs of heifer retention; impairment reflects updated fair value cushion and market realities .
- Prepared Foods pricing/elasticity: Strong brand equity and data-driven pricing; protein categories show lower elasticity; continued innovation supports mix lift .
- Chicken investments: ~$100M incremental spend, weighted to H2, focused on brand support, quality, and digital; despite spend, expectations remain at/above upper half of guidance .
- CapEx/FCF reconciliation: CapEx trending under $700M YTD and at the low end; FCF narrowed primarily on working capital needs, including higher cattle costs .
- Tariffs: No change to view on global protein consumption; contingency planning minimizes disruptions; outlook embeds tariff impacts .
Estimates Context
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Implications: Q3 delivered a clean beat on revenue and Adjusted EPS, continuing estimate‑beat momentum from Q1–Q2; expect upward revisions to Chicken and Prepared Foods AOI and consolidated FY AOI, with Beef estimates likely to drift lower given widened loss range .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Mix-led and execution-driven strength in Chicken and Prepared Foods offsets Beef cycle headwinds; the raised FY AOI and revenue outlook should support estimate revisions and sentiment .
- Beef impairment and widened loss guidance reset expectations; management sees early-cycle rebuild signals, but profitability normalization is a multi‑year story (2026–2028) .
- FCF/CapEx discipline intact (CapEx ≤$1B; FCF $1.0–$1.3B); liquidity $4.0B and leverage trending toward 2x; buyback authorization expanded, offering capital return optionality .
- Prepared Foods operational systems and innovation pipeline are durable drivers; margin trajectory improving despite raw input volatility .
- Chicken momentum (value‑added/branded) remains robust even with elevated brand investments; strategic customer alignments stabilize earnings .
- Watch tariff timing impacts on pricing and working capital, plus continued pork supply normalization; segment guidance suggests steady Pork improvement .
- Near‑term trading: Expect positive bias on raised guidance and capital return news balanced by Beef impairment headlines; medium‑term thesis hinges on continued execution in branded value‑added, logistics savings, and eventual Beef cycle recovery .