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TYSON FOODS, INC. (TSN)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered revenue of $13.88B (+4.0% y/y), Adjusted Operating Income of $505M (+3% y/y) and Adjusted EPS of $0.91 (+5% y/y), while GAAP EPS fell to $0.17 due to a $343M non-deductible goodwill impairment in Beef .
  • Results beat S&P Global consensus on both Adjusted EPS ($0.91 vs $0.78*) and revenue ($13.88B vs $13.56B*); this marks the fifth consecutive quarter of y/y growth across sales, AOI and Adjusted EPS *.
  • Guidance raised: Total company Adjusted OI range to $2.1–$2.3B (prior $1.9–$2.3B), sales up 2–3% (prior flat to +1%), Chicken AOI to $1.3–$1.4B (prior $1.0–$1.3B); FCF narrowed to $1.0–$1.3B and CapEx “at or below” $1.0B .
  • Beef headwinds intensified (Adjusted OI loss guided to $(475)–$(375)M) amid tight cattle supply; management highlighted heifer retention starting and herd rebuild tailwinds beyond 2026; Board declared $0.50/$0.45 quarterly dividend and expanded buyback authorization by 43M shares (≈50M total) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Prepared Foods: Adjusted OI up 21% y/y; margin +150 bps on innovation, distribution gains, and operational execution (fill rates >98%, highest since 2019) .
  • Chicken: Third straight quarter of volume growth; value‑added volume grew ~3.5x total segment volume; Adjusted OI +12% y/y on plant efficiencies and favorable mix .
  • Multi‑protein diversification and execution contributed to AOI and EPS growth despite Beef pressure; management reiterated “fifth consecutive quarter” of y/y growth and stronger balance sheet (net leverage down to 2.1x) .

What Went Wrong

  • Beef: GAAP OI fell to $(494)M (‑8.8% margin) and Adjusted OI to $(151)M due to compressed spreads from higher cattle costs; recorded $343M non‑deductible goodwill impairment .
  • Corporate tax rate spiked (64.5%) due to non‑deductible impairment; GAAP EPS fell 69% y/y to $0.17 .
  • Raw material inflation: ~$60M unplanned cost increase in Prepared Foods during Q3; management offset via execution and mix but narrowed segment AOI guidance amid seasonal raw material peaks .

Financial Results

Headline financials vs prior periods

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenues ($USD Billions)$13.62 $13.07 $13.88
GAAP EPS ($)$1.01 $0.02 $0.17
Adjusted EPS ($)$1.14 $0.92 $0.91
Gross Profit Margin (%)8.0% 4.6% 8.2%
GAAP Operating Margin (%)4.3% 0.8% 1.9%
Adjusted Operating Margin (%)4.8% 3.8% 3.6%

Year-over-year comparison (Q3 y/y)

MetricQ3 2024Q3 2025
Revenues ($USD Billions)$13.35 $13.88
GAAP Operating Income ($USD Millions)$341 $260
Adjusted Operating Income ($USD Millions)$491 $505
GAAP EPS ($)$0.54 $0.17
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.87 $0.91
GAAP Operating Margin (%)2.6% 1.9%
Adjusted Operating Margin (%)3.7% 3.6%

Segment breakdown (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

SegmentSales Q3 2024 ($MM)Sales Q3 2025 ($MM)Adj OI Q3 2024 ($MM)Adj OI Margin Q3 2024Adj OI Q3 2025 ($MM)Adj OI Margin Q3 2025
Beef$5,241 $5,603 $(69) (1.3%) $(151) (2.7%)
Pork$1,462 $1,506 $22 1.5% $36 2.4%
Chicken$4,076 $4,220 $307 7.5% $345 8.2%
Prepared Foods$2,432 $2,515 $203 8.3% $246 9.8%
International/Other$582 $557 $28 n/a $29 n/a
Total$13,353 $13,884 $491 3.7% $505 3.6%

Non-GAAP adjustments (Q3 2025)

ItemEPS Impact ($)Operating Income Impact ($MM)
Goodwill impairment (Beef)$0.96 $343
Network optimization plan (incl. storage sale gain)$(0.18) $(83)
Brand discontinuation$0.01 $5
Netherlands facility$(0.04) $(14)
China plant relocation remuneration$(0.01) $(6)
Adjusted OI (non-GAAP)$0.91 $505

KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Liquidity ($USD Billions)$4.5 $3.2 $4.0
Free Cash Flow YTD ($USD Billions)$0.76 $0.38 $0.93
CapEx YTD ($USD Billions)$0.27 $0.46 $0.69
Net debt / Adjusted EBITDA (TTM)2.3x 2.3x 2.1x

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total Company Adjusted Operating IncomeFY2025$1.9–$2.3B $2.1–$2.3B Raised midpoint; narrowed
RevenuesFY2025Flat to +1% y/y +2% to +3% y/y Raised
CapExFY2025$1.0–$1.2B At or below $1.0B Lowered
Free Cash FlowFY2025$1.0–$1.6B $1.0–$1.3B Narrowed lower end
Interest ExpenseFY2025≈$375M ≈$375M Maintained
Adjusted Tax RateFY2025≈25% ≈25% Maintained
Beef Adjusted OIFY2025$(0.4)B to $(0.2)B $(475)M to $(375)M Widened loss; narrowed range
Pork Adjusted OIFY2025$0.1B to $0.2B $175M to $200M Tightened to high end
Chicken Adjusted OIFY2025$1.0B to $1.3B $1.3B to $1.4B Raised
Prepared Foods Adjusted OIFY2025$0.9B to $1.1B $925M to $1.0B Narrowed mid‑lower
International/Other Adjusted OIFY2025Improved results (no range) ≈$125M (improved) More specific; improved
DividendQ3 2025Prior regular quarterly cadence$0.50 (Class A), $0.45 (Class B) declared (payable Dec 15, 2025) Affirmed dividend
Share Repurchase AuthorizationQ3 2025Prior authorization outstanding+43M shares; total ≈50M authorized Increased authorization

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1–Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
AI/technology initiativesTyson Ventures pursuing enabling technologies; brand/innovation pipeline expanding (Q2 prepared remarks) Demo Day spotlighted 11 AI startups; 6 selected to advance use cases in branding/R&D/automation Increasing focus; building pipeline
Supply chain/logistics optimizationPlan to sell multiple conventional cold storages; transition to automated facilities (~$200M annual savings over 3–5 years) Continued emphasis on operational excellence and data/digital tools; >98% fill rates in Prepared Foods Execution improving; savings opportunity intact
Tariffs/macroGuidance incorporated potential tariff impacts; contingency plans in place Acknowledged timing lags in tariff impacts on pricing; outlook accounts for tariffs and consumer selectivity Managed risk; watch timing effects
Beef cycle/heifer retention“If not at the bottom, we can see it”; heifers on feed down; rebuild expected post-2026 Heifer retention beginning; herd rebuilding tailwinds likely 2026–2028; impairment recognized amid tighter spreads Near‑term pressure; long‑term tailwind
Product performance/value‑addedQ2: Best Chicken Q2 AOI in 9 years; retail value‑added growth; innovation wins (Jimmy Dean) Tyson branded frozen chicken +10% volume; snacking +20%; fresh chicken volume +2.3% Strengthening across brands
International segmentMarked improvement on operational fundamentals; strongest quarter on record; macro risks acknowledged “Performed well this year”; ~$125M Adj OI outlook Sustained improvement; monitoring macro

Management Commentary

  • “Sales, adjusted operating income and adjusted earnings per share all grew year over year, marking our fifth consecutive quarter of year over year growth… Our strategy is working” — Donnie King, CEO .
  • “We are raising the midpoint and narrowing the range for total company adjusted operating income… $2.1–$2.3 billion” — Curt Calaway, CFO .
  • “Cattle availability at record lows… heifer retention has begun… herd rebuilding will begin in earnest in 2026” — Donnie King/Brady Stewart .
  • “Prepared Foods… best quarter ever… roughly $60 million of unplanned raw material increase in the quarter” — Donnie King .
  • “We ended the quarter with $4.0 billion in liquidity and net leverage at 2.1x… restarted open market share repurchases” — Curt Calaway .

Q&A Highlights

  • Beef outlook and impairment: Management detailed prolonged cycle dynamics, rising carrying value with higher cattle costs, and signs of heifer retention; impairment reflects updated fair value cushion and market realities .
  • Prepared Foods pricing/elasticity: Strong brand equity and data-driven pricing; protein categories show lower elasticity; continued innovation supports mix lift .
  • Chicken investments: ~$100M incremental spend, weighted to H2, focused on brand support, quality, and digital; despite spend, expectations remain at/above upper half of guidance .
  • CapEx/FCF reconciliation: CapEx trending under $700M YTD and at the low end; FCF narrowed primarily on working capital needs, including higher cattle costs .
  • Tariffs: No change to view on global protein consumption; contingency planning minimizes disruptions; outlook embeds tariff impacts .

Estimates Context

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue Actual ($USD Billions)$13.62 $13.07 $13.88
Revenue Consensus ($USD Billions)$13.46*$13.14*$13.56*
Surprise ($USD Billions)+$0.16*−$0.07*+$0.32*
Adjusted EPS Actual ($)$1.14 $0.92 $0.91
EPS Consensus ($)$0.88*$0.82*$0.78*
Surprise ($)+$0.26*+$0.10*+$0.13*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Implications: Q3 delivered a clean beat on revenue and Adjusted EPS, continuing estimate‑beat momentum from Q1–Q2; expect upward revisions to Chicken and Prepared Foods AOI and consolidated FY AOI, with Beef estimates likely to drift lower given widened loss range .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Mix-led and execution-driven strength in Chicken and Prepared Foods offsets Beef cycle headwinds; the raised FY AOI and revenue outlook should support estimate revisions and sentiment .
  • Beef impairment and widened loss guidance reset expectations; management sees early-cycle rebuild signals, but profitability normalization is a multi‑year story (2026–2028) .
  • FCF/CapEx discipline intact (CapEx ≤$1B; FCF $1.0–$1.3B); liquidity $4.0B and leverage trending toward 2x; buyback authorization expanded, offering capital return optionality .
  • Prepared Foods operational systems and innovation pipeline are durable drivers; margin trajectory improving despite raw input volatility .
  • Chicken momentum (value‑added/branded) remains robust even with elevated brand investments; strategic customer alignments stabilize earnings .
  • Watch tariff timing impacts on pricing and working capital, plus continued pork supply normalization; segment guidance suggests steady Pork improvement .
  • Near‑term trading: Expect positive bias on raised guidance and capital return news balanced by Beef impairment headlines; medium‑term thesis hinges on continued execution in branded value‑added, logistics savings, and eventual Beef cycle recovery .