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TYSON FOODS, INC. (TSN)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2025 delivered mixed headline results: revenue of $13.86B (+2.2% YoY; below Street), adjusted EPS of $1.15 (+25% YoY; above Street), and adjusted operating income of $608M (+19% YoY), as strong Chicken and Pork offset Beef headwinds and Prepared Foods commodity pressure . Versus consensus, TSN beat EPS ($1.15 vs $0.835*) but missed revenue ($13.86B vs $14.07B*) (Values retrieved from S&P Global).
  • FY26 outlook guides adjusted AOI to $2.1–$2.3B, sales +2–4%, CapEx $700–$1,000M, FCF $0.8–$1.3B, tax ~25%, and interest expense ~$390M; segment guide: Chicken $1.25–$1.5B, Prepared $950–$1,050M, Pork $150–$250M, Beef loss $(600)–$(400)M .
  • Operational excellence continues to drive record Chicken profitability (Q4 Chicken AOI $457M; 10.4% adj margin), with value-added mix and lower feed costs cited; Beef remains the “soft spot” given tight cattle supply and heifer retention dynamics .
  • Dividend raised ~2%: Class A quarterly to $0.51 (Class B $0.459) with payments set for Dec 15, 2025 and Mar 13, 2026; annual rate $2.04 (Class A) and $1.836 (Class B) .
  • Near-term stock reaction catalysts: continued Chicken execution and segment AOI cadence, monitoring Beef spreads/cattle availability, Prepared Foods commodity trends and price-lag recapture; FY26 guide discipline on FCF and CapEx supports capital allocation flexibility .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • “Record Chicken profitability”: Q4 Chicken adjusted AOI $457M (+$101M YoY) with 10.4% adjusted margin; strong volume growth (+3.7%) and favorable value-added mix .
    • Pork strength: Q4 adjusted AOI $31M (2.0% adj margin), strongest Q4 in four years, driven by network optimization and value-added utilization across bacon, lunch meats, and sausage trims .
    • Retail brand momentum: 13-week data showed Tyson branded fresh chicken volume +7.8%, frozen value-added chicken +8.7%, Hillshire snacking +12.5%, Hillshire lunch meats +10.3%, Jimmy Dean breakfast sausage +1.6% . CEO: “We delivered year-over-year growth in sales, adjusted operating income and adjusted earnings per share” .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Beef headwinds: Q4 GAAP Beef operating loss $(319)M; adjusted AOI $(94)M; volume down 8.4%, average price +17.0%, reflecting tight cattle supply and cost pressure; early signs of heifer retention constrain near-term supply .
    • Prepared Foods margin compression: Q4 GAAP operating income $143M vs $203M prior year; adjusted AOI $189M vs $205M prior year; management cited ~$135M Q4 commodity cost pressure and pricing lags .
    • Legal and non-recurring items: Q4 recognized $355M sales reduction from legal contingency accruals (company total), materially depressing GAAP metrics; multiple adjustments (recall, restructuring) required to reflect core run-rate .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2024Q3 2025Q4 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$13.565 $13.884 $13.860
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$1.00 $0.17 $0.13
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.92 $0.91 $1.15
Gross Margin (%)7.8% 8.2% 5.2%
Operating Margin (%)3.9% 1.9% 1.1%
Adjusted Operating Income ($USD Millions)$512 $505 $608
Segment Sales ($USD Millions)Q4 2024Q4 2025
Beef$5,261 $5,489
Pork$1,438 $1,414
Chicken$4,251 $4,411
Prepared Foods$2,472 $2,546
International/Other$609 $584
Intersegment Sales$(466) $(584)
Total$13,565 $13,860
Adjusted Segment Operating Income ($USD Millions)Q4 2024Q4 2025
Beef$(71) $(94)
Pork$19 $31
Chicken$356 $457
Prepared Foods$205 $189
International/Other$3 $25
Total$512 $608
KPIsQ4 2024Q4 2025
Liquidity ($USD Billions)$4.0 (as of Q3 2025) $3.7 (as of Sep 27, 2025)
Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA (x, TTM)2.6x 2.1x
Free Cash Flow (TTM, $USD Billions)$1.458 $1.177
Dividends Declared per Share – Class A ($)$0.490 $0.500 (Q4 declared); raised to $0.51 effective Nov 7

Consensus comparison (Q4 2025): Adjusted EPS $1.15 vs $0.835*; Revenue $13.86B vs $14.07B* (Values retrieved from S&P Global).

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total Company Adjusted AOI ($B)FY25 vs FY26$2.1–$2.3B (FY25) $2.1–$2.3B (FY26) Maintained range (new year)
Sales Growth (%)FY25 vs FY26+2–3% (FY25) +2–4% (FY26) Raised upper bound
Net Interest Expense ($M)FY25 vs FY26~$375 (FY25) ~$390 (FY26) Raised
Adjusted Tax Rate (%)FY25 vs FY26~25% (FY25) ~25% (FY26) Maintained
CapEx ($M)FY25 vs FY26At or below $1,000 (FY25) $700–$1,000 (FY26) Lower midpoint
Free Cash Flow ($B)FY25 vs FY26$1.0–$1.3 (FY25) $0.8–$1.3 (FY26) Lower low-end
Chicken Adjusted AOI ($B)FY25 vs FY26$1.3–$1.4 (FY25) $1.25–$1.5 (FY26) Widened; slight lower low-end
Prepared Foods Adjusted AOI ($M)FY25 vs FY26$925–$1,000 (FY25) $950–$1,050 (FY26) Raised
Pork Adjusted AOI ($M)FY25 vs FY26$175–$200 (FY25) $150–$250 (FY26) Widened; lower low-end
Beef Adjusted AOI ($M)FY25 vs FY26Loss $(475)–$(375) (FY25) Loss $(600)–$(400) (FY26) Worse
International/Other Adjusted AOI ($M)FY25 vs FY26~125 (FY25) Similar (implied) Maintained
Dividend per Share – Class A ($)FY25 vs FY26$0.50 declared (Q2) $0.51 per quarter (FY26 annual $2.04) Raised ~2%

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q3 2025)Current Period (Q4 2025)Trend
Chicken execution & value-addedQ3: AOI +12% YoY; value-added mix >3.5x segment volume; stable grains; $100M brand support; pipeline >20 items Q4: Adjusted AOI $457M; 10.4% margin; insulated but not immune to commodity; expect similar conditions in FY26 Strengthening; sustained high margins
Beef supply/heifer retentionQ3: Beef cow slaughter down 16%; prolonged drought; impairment charge; tight spreads Q4: Signs of regional heifer retention; Mexico border closures (new world screwworm) constrain supply; FY26 Beef loss guide Headwinds persist; visibility improving
Prepared Foods commodity & pricing lagsQ3: seasonally high trims; raw material inflation; AOI up 21% YoY Q4: ~$135M commodity pressure; price lags; AOI down YoY; FY26 AOI guide raised Near-term pressure; medium-term recovery expected
Capital allocation & FCFQ3: leverage 2.1x; FCF $929M YTD; restarted buybacks Q4: leverage 2.1x; FCF $1.177B TTM; $154M buybacks in quarter; FY26 FCF $0.8–$1.3B Balance sheet strengthening; disciplined
Consumer demand & brand penetrationQ3: Tyson branded frozen +10%; fresh +2.3%; snacking +20% Q4: 72% household penetration; retail branded +2.4% volume; multiple categories double-digit growth Positive consumer momentum
Imports/grind demand—Imports up ~20%; exports down ~10%; strong grind demand (Australia boneless lean) Supportive for grind margins
Tariffs/macroQ3: tariff impacts have timing lags; pricing dynamics uncertain Continued monitoring; macro consumer divergence; SNAP funding uncertainties Mixed macro; vigilant

Management Commentary

  • Donnie King, CEO: “We delivered year-over-year growth in sales, adjusted operating income and adjusted earnings per share… we remain focused on continuously improving the controllable aspects of our business and delivering shareholder value” .
  • On Chicken: “We finished 2025 with momentum in chicken, and we have seen that performance carry through in the start of 2026… We expect 2026 to be another great year in chicken” .
  • On Beef: “Heifer retention… implies less beef in the near term… our guidance, the negative 600 to negative 400 is what we see relative to the market presently” .
  • Prepared Foods: “For the quarter, we had $135 million in commodity cost pressure… pricing lags did not fully have time to flow through… we do expect to see volume growth and market share growth as raw materials stabilize” .
  • CFO Curt Calaway: “We ended the year with $3.7 billion in liquidity and net leverage at 2.1 times… CapEx expected to be $700 million–$1 billion, and free cash flow in the range of $800 million–$1.3 billion” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Chicken guidance drivers: Stable grains, improved yields, strong live ops performance, value-added mix, and strategic customer partnerships underpin $1.25–$1.5B AOI outlook .
  • Beef seasonality and supply: Regional heifer retention, Mexico border closures (new world screwworm), tight cattle supply; volatility acknowledged within FY26 Beef loss guidance .
  • Prepared Foods cadence: Commodity inflation drove Q4 miss; expect more balanced FY26 performance as price-lag recapture and operations normalize .
  • CapEx range rationale: Lower spend reflecting prior capacity build; pacing/timing of existing and new projects within $700–$1,000M range .
  • Working capital/FCF: FY26 FCF targeted to exceed dividends; working capital inflation considered in outlook .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 2025 vs Street: Adjusted EPS $1.15 vs $0.835* (beat); Revenue $13.86B vs $14.07B* (miss). Street Q4 EBITDA estimate $829M* vs lack of reported quarterly EBITDA; company reports TTM EBITDA of $2.495B . (Values retrieved from S&P Global)
  • Forward consensus: FY26 Revenue $56.14B*, EPS normalized $3.90*, EBITDA $3.50B*—broadly consistent with management’s sales +2–4% and AOI $2.1–$2.3B guide; beef weakness likely embedded in estimates. (Values retrieved from S&P Global)

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Chicken remains the core profit engine, with sustained double-digit adjusted margins and strong value-added mix—a key support for FY26 AOI guidance amid Beef headwinds .
  • Beef losses are guided to widen in FY26 due to tight cattle supply and heifer retention; monitor spreads, cattle availability, Mexico border developments (new world screwworm) for inflection timing .
  • Prepared Foods’ commodity pressure and pricing lags weighed on Q4, but operational discipline and raised FY26 AOI guide suggest margin rebuilding in 2026 as input costs stabilize .
  • Capital allocation is disciplined: leverage at 2.1x TTM, dividend increased ~2%, and FY26 FCF $0.8–$1.3B supports ongoing shareholder returns and selective buybacks at attractive valuations .
  • Near-term estimate revisions likely: upward for EPS (post-Q4 beat), cautious for revenue given Beef headwinds; segment mix and AOI trajectory should drive stock narrative. (Values retrieved from S&P Global)
  • Trading setup: Positive sentiment around Chicken execution and brand momentum vs. macro/livestock risks; watch monthly cattle data and category pricing for confirmation of FY26 margin cadence .

Notes: All document-based figures are cited. Consensus values marked with an asterisk (*) are Values retrieved from S&P Global.