Executive Summary

Q3 2022 revenue of $2.653M grew 49% YoY and 2% QoQ; EPS was $(0.50). Revenue missed Refinitiv consensus ($3.2M) but EPS beat (consensus $(0.56)), while S&P Global consensus was unavailable .
Operating loss widened to $(119.7)M and Adjusted EBITDA to $(93.6)M as R&D ($85.8M) and SG&A ($31.1M) remained elevated to support safety, hardware upgrades, and AFN buildout .
Management reaffirmed being on track to FY22 guidance set on Aug 2 (revenue $9–$11M; adjusted EBITDA loss $360–$380M; SBC $100–$120M; capex $20–$30M; year-end cash ~ $950M), with no changes in Q3; cash, cash equivalents and ST investments ended Q3 at ~$1.07B .
Stock catalyst: On Oct 31, TuSimple terminated its CEO after a board investigation; shares fell sharply (over 45%) that day, adding governance and regulatory overhang to the commercialization narrative .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Revenue grew +49% YoY to $2.653M on improved asset utilization and pricing, with quarterly revenue miles rising ~4% QoQ to ~1.212M .
Technology and safety execution: partnered with independent auditors to verify safety practices; continued driver-out preparation, hardware upgrades, and expanded Tucson engineering/test capacity (+40k sq ft) .
Network build-out: signed leases for two additional AFN terminals (South Dallas, San Antonio), expanding Texas Triangle capacity; cumulative autonomous road miles reached ~9.0M (+11% QoQ) .

Quote: “TuSimple is partnering with multiple independent auditors to verify our safety practices, processes, and design approaches.”

What Went Wrong

Revenue missed Refinitiv consensus ($2.653M vs $3.2M), and sequential revenue per mile was “down slightly,” reflecting network mix and upgrades; operating loss and adjusted EBITDA loss both widened QoQ .
Governance shock: CEO termination tied to investigation into ties with Hydron created significant stock volatility and heightened regulatory risk .
Efficiency trade-offs: management warned revenue miles may be “less in the shorter term” as trucks are taken out for upgrades and operations concentrate on high-density lanes to target cost-per-mile reductions .

Financial Results

Headline P&L and Profitability vs prior periods

Metric	Q3 2021	Q2 2022	Q3 2022
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$1.785	$2.594	$2.653
Net Loss per Share (Basic & Diluted)	$(0.54)	$(0.49)	$(0.50)
Gross Loss ($USD Millions)	$(1.702)	$(3.173)	$(2.783)
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)	$84.506	$85.519	$85.762
SG&A Expense ($USD Millions)	$29.741	$22.017	$31.110
Operating Loss ($USD Millions)	$(115.949)	$(110.709)	$(119.655)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$(81.3)	$(82.7)	$(93.6)

Actual vs Consensus (Q3 2022)

Metric	Actual Q3 2022	S&P Global Consensus	Refinitiv (Reuters) Consensus
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$2.653	Unavailable (S&P Global)	$3.2
EPS (Basic & Diluted)	$(0.50)	Unavailable (S&P Global)	$(0.56)

Note: S&P Global consensus was unavailable for TSP at this time.

Balance Sheet / Liquidity

Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments: ~$1.07B at 9/30/22 ($871.4M cash + $197.8M ST investments) .
Operating cash usage in Q3: $79M .

KPIs and Operating Metrics

KPI	Q1 2022	Q2 2022	Q3 2022
Cumulative Autonomous Road Miles (Millions)	~7.2	~8.1	~9.0
Quarterly Revenue Miles (Thousands)	~1,014	~1,169	~1,212
Unique Mapped Miles (Thousands, EOQ)	~11.2	~11.4	~11.4
Truck Reservations (EOQ)	7,475	7,485	7,485

Segment breakdown: Not applicable—management discloses all revenue to date is from freight capacity services on the AFN .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue	FY 2022	$9–$11M (Aug 2)	On track to prior guidance (Oct 31)	Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA Loss	FY 2022	$360–$380M (improved from $400–$420M on Aug 2)	On track to prior guidance	Maintained
Stock-based Compensation	FY 2022	$100–$120M (reduced Aug 2)	On track to prior guidance	Maintained
Purchases of PP&E (Capex)	FY 2022	$20–$30M (reduced Aug 2)	On track to prior guidance	Maintained
Ending Cash Balance	FY 2022	~ $950M (Aug 2)	On track to prior guidance	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: We attempted to retrieve the Q3’22 transcript from our documents tool but encountered a database inconsistency. We therefore synthesize themes using the company’s Q1, Q2, and Q3 shareholder letters and contemporaneous press releases; transcript-specific Q&A details are not available via our tools at this time .

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 2022)	Previous Mentions (Q2 2022)	Current Period (Q3 2022)	Trend
Driver-out commercialization timeline	Continued driver-out operations; MRC refinement; expansion plans in Texas	“Driver Out era” focus; commercialization by end of 2023; leadership realignment	Focus on initial commercialization; combine test and revenue fleets; cost-per-mile as key KPI	Execution-focused, operations integration
Safety and audits	Validating MRC, collaborative mapping introduced	Regulatory landscape progress (44 states driver-in, 28 driver-out)	Engaged independent safety auditors; detailed safety processes	Increasing formalization
AFN build-out (Texas Triangle)	Added Ryder terminals (Houston, Laredo)	Partners added; reservations steady; utilization improved	Leases for South Dallas and San Antonio terminals; path to scale in Texas	Network densification
Hardware and reliability	N/A	Patent growth; commercialization-ready components	Fleet-wide hardware upgrade through 2023 to improve reliability	Reliability upgrades intensify
Governance/leadership	New CEO in Q1 (background provided)	Leadership changes incl. interim CFO and EVP roles	CEO termination and interim CEO appointment	Heightened governance risk

Management Commentary

“We focus on and prioritize depth over breadth…towards the end-goal: safe & efficient driver-out fleet operations.”
“We began combining our revenue and testing fleets into one autonomous operations group…each mile will…improve the product and deliver longer-term value.”
“TuSimple is partnering with multiple independent auditors to verify our safety practices, processes, and design approaches.”
“We now have seven terminals with three full-service terminals in Dallas, Fort Worth, and Tucson…capacity to support operations in the Texas Triangle.”
“Our SBC expense was $23.0 million in Q3 2022…Adjusted EBITDA was ($93.6) million.”

Q&A Highlights

Transcript excerpts were not retrievable via our documents tool due to a database inconsistency. Based on the company’s Q3 shareholder letter and contemporaneous announcements, management emphasized:

Safety validation via independent audits and standardized operating procedures .
Operations strategy to concentrate on high-density Texas lanes and unify test/revenue fleets, with near-term revenue miles impacted by hardware upgrades but improved cost-per-mile targeted over time .
Liquidity runway (>$1.0B cash and investments at quarter-end) to fund commercialization initiatives .
Governance actions and leadership transition following the board-led investigation (interim CEO in place) .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus for Q3 2022 EPS and revenue was unavailable for TSP at the time of analysis.
Refinitiv (via Reuters) indicated consensus revenue ~$3.2M and EPS $(0.56); TuSimple reported $2.653M revenue (miss) and $(0.50) EPS (beat) .
Given the miss on revenue and beat on EPS, street models may need to trim near-term top-line (due to hardware upgrade downtime and lane concentration) while revisiting expense cadence and SBC trajectory as operations are optimized .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Commercialization path continues, but near-term revenue cadence is secondary to safety validation and operational reliability; watch cost-per-mile and revenue-mile density as leading indicators into 2023 .
Liquidity remains robust (~$1.07B cash and investments), supporting continued R&D and AFN buildout despite widening adjusted EBITDA loss in Q3 .
Governance and regulatory risks increased after CEO termination; this remains a key stock overhang and trading catalyst pending further disclosures and board actions .
Execution focus has shifted to Texas Triangle lanes with new terminals, unified fleet operations, and hardware upgrades—look for Q4/Q1 commentary on upgrade completion progress and operational reliability metrics .
Expect estimate dispersion to remain high; with S&P Global consensus unavailable and governance developments ongoing, traders should monitor third-party transcript details and any 8-K updates closely for tone and timeline changes .
For medium-term thesis, the core question is proof of scalable driver-out operations with validated safety and cost parity; KPIs to track: revenue miles density, hardware upgrade completion, safety audit outcomes, and customer pipeline/reservations trajectory .

TuSimple Holdings Inc. (TSP)·Q3 2022 Earnings Summary