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    TELUS (TU)

    Q1 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Mar 19, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$16.40Last close (May 8, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$16.44Open (May 9, 2024)
    Price Change
    $0.04(+0.24%)

    What went well

    • Significant cost efficiency programs are leading to margin expansion, with 170 basis points expansion in TTech adjusted EBITDA margin in Q1. The cost efficiency program is ongoing, with more efficiencies expected as staff-level reductions continue through July. This supports EBITDA growth and margin expansion, aligning with the company's financial targets for 2024.
    • TELUS Health expects strong revenue growth in Q2 and beyond, having achieved 111% of sales booking targets year-to-date, representing a 17% year-over-year increase in deal volume and $175 million in total contract value. The Payvider business unit had its best sales quarter on record, and significant cross-selling opportunities are expected to drive future growth.
    • Capital expenditures are expected to decrease, with the company holding CapEx flat and opportunities to bring it down further. TELUS aims for a capital intensity of 12% or lower in the current year, moving toward circa 10% over time. This reduction in CapEx will contribute to strong free cash flow generation, supporting the long-term sustainability of the dividend growth program.

    What went wrong

    • Telus is facing increased competitive pressure in device financing and mobile pricing, leading to ARPU declines in both mobile and Internet services. The company acknowledged intense promotional activity and heightened competition, which may continue to pressurize ARPU in the near term. ,
    • TTech adjusted EBITDA growth in Q1 was 4.1%, below the company's full-year guidance target of 5.5% to 7.5%. While management expects growth to pick up in subsequent quarters, there is a risk that the company may not achieve its EBITDA growth targets.
    • Telus Health reported a decline in revenue year-over-year, with management expressing unhappiness with Q1 revenue growth. This suggests potential challenges in scaling Telus Health and achieving expected growth in that segment.

    Q&A Summary

    1. EBITDA Growth Confirmation
      Q: Will EBITDA growth pick up to meet guidance?
      A: Yes, despite the 4.1% EBITDA growth being below the 5.5% to 7.5% guidance range, the company expects EBITDA growth for TELUS Technology Solutions (TTech) to improve in the coming quarters and remain within the guidance range.

    2. CapEx Intensity Reduction
      Q: Can you reach 10% CapEx intensity soon?
      A: The company plans to continue reducing CapEx intensity, aiming for approximately 10% in the future. They expect CapEx intensity to be 12% or lower this year, benefiting from early fiber investments and completing projects ahead of peers at lower costs.

    3. Fixed Data Revenue Slowdown
      Q: Why is fixed data revenue growth slowing?
      A: Fixed data services revenue growth slowed from 7% last year to around 3% now due to competitive pressure affecting ARPU, which is flat year-over-year. The company focuses on product intensity, cost efficiencies, and bundling to offset pressures and does not rely on reaccelerating this growth to meet revenue guidance.

    4. Leverage Target Strategy
      Q: Will you adjust your leverage target like BCE?
      A: The company maintains its leverage target of 2.2 to 2.7x, aiming to optimize cost of capital. They plan to deleverage to around 3x or below, acknowledging that recent spectrum purchases added 44 basis points to leverage. They prefer to reassess the target when closer to achieving it.

    5. Margin Expansion and Efficiency
      Q: Are efficiency gains sustaining margin expansion?
      A: Yes, the 170 basis points margin expansion in TTech is supported by ongoing efficiency programs, including staff reductions completing by end of July and a 4% reduction in employee benefits, equating to over $50 million in savings this quarter.

    6. TELUS Health Revenue Outlook
      Q: Why did TELUS Health revenue decline?
      A: The company was unhappy with TELUS Health's revenue growth in Q1 but expects strong improvement starting in Q2, driven by channel expansion, increased sales bookings achieving 111% of target, and a 17% year-over-year increase in deal volume totaling $175 million in contract value. They see significant cross-selling opportunities and benefits from integrating LifeWorks.

    7. Device Financing Competition
      Q: How are you handling device financing competition?
      A: The company observed increased competition leading to lower device financing floors and higher subsidies to lower ARPU customers, which is margin dilutive. They focus on brand differentiation, maintaining strong economics, and offering attractive bundles like the Koodo Happy Stack to mitigate dilution and reduce customer switching.

    8. ARPU vs. AMPU Relevance
      Q: Is ARPU still a relevant metric?
      A: While ARPU is under pressure due to competitive dynamics, the company focuses on household Average Margin Per User (AMPU) and customer lifetime value, emphasizing product intensity, churn reduction, and increased wallet share through new services like streaming and home automation.

    9. TI, Health, and Agriculture Improvement
      Q: What's driving second-half improvement in TI, Health, Agriculture?
      A: The company anticipates real growth due to increased sales bookings and investments in channel and distribution. Health saw a 17% year-over-year increase in deal volume, and Agriculture had its best two back-to-back sales quarters. They expect steady acceleration as investments mature, not just easier comparisons.

    10. 5G on Public Mobile Brand
      Q: Why offer 5G on Public Mobile brand?
      A: Offering 5G on Public Mobile aligns with its digital-first, eSIM-only, no-store model, catering to customers seeking 5G in a bring-your-own-device market. The company differentiates bundles to maintain premium positioning while appropriately addressing different market segments.

    11. Wireless EBITDA Direction
      Q: Is wireless EBITDA above 4.1% TTech growth?
      A: Directionally, wireless segment profitability is in that zone, but the company doesn't provide full allocation to confirm if it's above the 4.1% total TTech EBITDA growth. Profitability of Fiber-to-the-Home offerings is also strong with bundled services.

    12. Fixed Wireless for Business
      Q: Are you leveraging fixed wireless for business?
      A: Yes, the company is exploring fixed wireless solutions for business customers, leveraging different usage patterns and spectrum efficiency. They plan to accelerate this offering alongside existing PureFibre and network capabilities.

    13. Free Cash Flow and Leases
      Q: Does $178M lease principal affect free cash flow?
      A: Yes, the $178 million effective lease principal is deducted from free cash flow for guidance and dividend payout purposes. This includes real business costs like building and equipment leases, aligning with IFRS 16 accounting principles, providing a clean comparison to previous accounting.

    14. Broadband Net Adds Composition
      Q: What's the split in broadband net adds?
      A: Contributions from wholesale (TPIA) and out-of-territory Internet additions are modest. Growth is mainly driven by the existing PureFibre footprint, incremental household releases, and new household introductions. The company emphasizes high product intensity and bundled capabilities for success in leased network environments.

    15. Disclosure of Internal Metrics
      Q: Will you share internal measures externally?
      A: The company acknowledges the importance of metrics like product intensity and churn but currently provides such data on an ad hoc basis. They are considering offering better leading indicators like product intensity (currently at 3.21 on PureFibre households), revenue growth, and customer lifetime value in the future.

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