TM
Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Record quarter: revenue $509.7M (+24.7% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA margin 54.6% (+88 bps YoY); sequential revenue rose ~10% vs Q4 2024, driven by strong Rates, Money Markets (ICD), and Market Data contributions .
- Results vs consensus: revenue modest beat ($509.1–$509.7M actual vs $507.6M consensus*); adjusted EPS matched/slightly beat ($0.86 actual vs $0.857 consensus*) .
- Guidance: Full‑year 2025 guidance unchanged (Adjusted Expenses $970–$1,030M; D&A $176M; tax 24.5–25.5%; CapEx $99–$109M; LSEG ~$90M). Q2 guidance calls for a shift toward fixed credit fees (+$6–$7M QoQ), offset by lower variable fees; total revenue neutral .
- Catalysts: Rapid adoption of U.S. Treasury streaming/sessions, risk‑on swaps trading, and new portfolio trading in European government bonds; SEC SBSEF approval expands CDS workflow; ongoing Coremont integration and AllTrade growth .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
-
What Went Well
- Rates strength: record revenues across swaps, global government bonds, mortgages; institutional/wholesale U.S. Treasuries saw record activity with institutional market share >50% vs main competitor and AiEX trades +15% YoY .
- Money Markets surge: revenues +160% YoY; repo ADV +78% YoY, supported by Fed balance sheet unwind and lower RRP balances; ICD acquisition broadened client/channel exposure .
- Market Data tailwind: LSEG and proprietary data revenues +33% YoY, including $8.4M from periodic delivery of historical datasets in Q1 .
- Management quote: “We reported record revenue of $509.7 million—up nearly 25% YoY—alongside record trading volume of $164.5 trillion and ADV of $2.5 trillion, up 33.7% YoY.” — CEO Billy Hult .
-
What Went Wrong
- Margin mix: GAAP net income margin declined 206 bps YoY (33.0% vs 35.1%) as operating expenses rose 26.8% on incentive comp, D&A (ICD assets), and $8.6M FX losses .
- Cash Credit fees per million decreased 11% YoY due to mix shift away from retail, migration to fixed plans, and wholesale volume‑tier discounts amid elevated March volatility .
- Equities ADV fell 3.3% YoY (U.S. ETF wholesale softness), though EU ETFs and equity derivatives offset with higher fees per million (+17%) .
- Retail credit revenues softness amid risk‑off tone among retail investors .
Financial Results
Segment revenue breakdown (YoY):
Key KPIs:
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO framing: “Technology is reshaping single market and multi‑asset class trading… record revenue of $509.7M and record trading volume of $164.5T… positive market share trends and greater adoption of electronic protocols and tools.” — Billy Hult .
- Rates outlook: “Macro uncertainty… global trade war… we see an even greater need for a resilient and efficient electronic trading ecosystem… as the rates leader, we’re going to continue to prosper.” — Billy Hult .
- Credit pricing evolution: “As our business has scaled… a mix of variable and fixed pricing becomes a mutually beneficial model… still leaves 85% of our credit revenue fully variable, which leaves lots of room for strong revenue growth with volume.” — Sara Furber .
- Capital allocation: “M&A continues to be our preferred use of cash… disciplined, accretive deals; strong cash ($1.3B), undrawn $500M revolver, no debt.” — Sara Furber .
- SEC SBSEF approval (CDS): enhances transparency and liquidity for single‑name CDS via TW SEF .
Q&A Highlights
- Credit pricing transition: Moving dealers from variable to subscriptions/minimum floors; target recurring credit fixed revenue ~13% by end‑Q2 (from <7% in Q1’24); total revenue neutral due to variable fee offset .
- UST protocols adoption: Streaming/sessions volumes accelerating in wholesale amid lower vol regimes; multi‑protocol suite remains strategic (streams, CLOB, sweep, r8fin) .
- Regulatory SLR: Potential loosening seen as positive for treasury liquidity, turnover, narrower bid‑ask; supportive for Tradeweb’s rates platforms .
- EM expansion: Strong EM swaps and growing EM credit; Saudi Arabia launch expected; local dealer onboarding across regions .
- Digital assets: Focus on trusted shareable data, smart contracts, tokenization; strategic partnerships (GS DAP, Securitize, Alphaledger; Canton Network) to remove workflow friction .
Estimates Context
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Implications:
- Revenue: modest beat vs consensus in Q1; sequential acceleration vs Q4 supports estimate stability/incremental raises in Rates/Money Markets .
- EPS: adjusted EPS essentially in line/slight beat; margin expansion (+88 bps YoY) may support fine‑tuning upward on EBITDA/EBIT margins .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Momentum broad‑based: Strength in Rates, Money Markets (ICD), and Market Data with resilient equity derivatives; continued adoption of automation (AiEX) is a durable driver .
- Mix shift in Credit: Transition to subscriptions/minimum floors increases revenue visibility without capping growth (85% still variable); watch Q2 execution and fee per million dynamics .
- Risk‑on swaps activity: Lower compression, higher risk trading and share gains across currencies elevate fee mix; supportive for margin expansion .
- Regulatory tailwinds: Potential SLR adjustments and SEC SBSEF approval can deepen liquidity pools/expand CDS workflows—positive for rates/credit volumes .
- Guidance intact: Unchanged FY’25 ranges with commentary to invest in growth (tech, data, ICD) while still expanding margins; cost base remains ~50% variable/discretionary for operating leverage .
- Short‑term trading: Near‑term catalysts include streaming/sessions uptake, European gov bond portfolio trading adoption, and monthly ADV prints (Jan $2.44T, Feb $2.49T ADV up 20–33% YoY) .
- Medium‑term thesis: Multi‑asset network effects and electronification runway (cleared swaps ~30% electronic) underpin durable double‑digit growth; monitor EM build‑out and AI/data strategy execution .
Appendix: Additional Data Points
- Dividend: Board declared $0.12/share dividend payable June 16, 2025; 20% YoY increase per share .
- Capital: $1.3B cash & equivalents; $500M undrawn facility; TTM free cash flow $833.6M; Q1 cash CapEx + capitalized software $14.8M .
- Fees per million highlights: Cash Rates −8%; Long‑tenor swaps +42% (lower compression); Cash Credit −11%; Cash Equities +17%; Money Markets +54% (ICD) .
Citations: All figures and statements derive from the company’s Q1 2025 8‑K/press release and earnings call, prior quarter materials, and other press releases as cited above. Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.