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Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record quarter: revenue $509.7M (+24.7% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA margin 54.6% (+88 bps YoY); sequential revenue rose ~10% vs Q4 2024, driven by strong Rates, Money Markets (ICD), and Market Data contributions .
  • Results vs consensus: revenue modest beat ($509.1–$509.7M actual vs $507.6M consensus*); adjusted EPS matched/slightly beat ($0.86 actual vs $0.857 consensus*) .
  • Guidance: Full‑year 2025 guidance unchanged (Adjusted Expenses $970–$1,030M; D&A $176M; tax 24.5–25.5%; CapEx $99–$109M; LSEG ~$90M). Q2 guidance calls for a shift toward fixed credit fees (+$6–$7M QoQ), offset by lower variable fees; total revenue neutral .
  • Catalysts: Rapid adoption of U.S. Treasury streaming/sessions, risk‑on swaps trading, and new portfolio trading in European government bonds; SEC SBSEF approval expands CDS workflow; ongoing Coremont integration and AllTrade growth .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Rates strength: record revenues across swaps, global government bonds, mortgages; institutional/wholesale U.S. Treasuries saw record activity with institutional market share >50% vs main competitor and AiEX trades +15% YoY .
    • Money Markets surge: revenues +160% YoY; repo ADV +78% YoY, supported by Fed balance sheet unwind and lower RRP balances; ICD acquisition broadened client/channel exposure .
    • Market Data tailwind: LSEG and proprietary data revenues +33% YoY, including $8.4M from periodic delivery of historical datasets in Q1 .
    • Management quote: “We reported record revenue of $509.7 million—up nearly 25% YoY—alongside record trading volume of $164.5 trillion and ADV of $2.5 trillion, up 33.7% YoY.” — CEO Billy Hult .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Margin mix: GAAP net income margin declined 206 bps YoY (33.0% vs 35.1%) as operating expenses rose 26.8% on incentive comp, D&A (ICD assets), and $8.6M FX losses .
    • Cash Credit fees per million decreased 11% YoY due to mix shift away from retail, migration to fixed plans, and wholesale volume‑tier discounts amid elevated March volatility .
    • Equities ADV fell 3.3% YoY (U.S. ETF wholesale softness), though EU ETFs and equity derivatives offset with higher fees per million (+17%) .
    • Retail credit revenues softness amid risk‑off tone among retail investors .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$448.9 $463.3 $509.7
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.53 $0.66 $0.69
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.75 $0.76 $0.86
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %53.4% 52.8% 54.6%
Net Income Margin %29.0% 34.5% 33.0%

Segment revenue breakdown (YoY):

Asset Class Revenue ($USD Millions)Q1 2024Q1 2025
Rates$214.1 $265.4
Credit$115.8 $124.0
Equities$27.1 $31.4
Money Markets$16.8 $43.7
Market Data$29.0 $38.7
Other$5.9 $6.4

Key KPIs:

KPIQ1 2024Q1 2025
Total ADV ($USD Trillions)$1.905 $2.547
U.S. Gov’t Bonds ADV ($USD Billions)$200.3 $244.3
European Gov’t Bonds ADV ($USD Billions)$50.3 $59.8
Mortgages ADV ($USD Billions)$204.1 $243.4
Swaps/Swaptions ≥1Y ADV ($USD Billions)$502.4 $511.0
Money Markets ADV ($USD Billions)$576.6 $1,029.0
Fully Electronic U.S. IG TRACE Share18.0% (+42 bps YoY)
Fully Electronic U.S. HY TRACE Share7.5% (+86 bps YoY)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted Expenses ($USD Millions)FY 2025$970–$1,030 $970–$1,030 Maintained
Acquisition & Refinitiv D&A ($USD Millions)FY 2025$176 $176 Maintained
Assumed non‑GAAP Tax Rate (%)FY 202524.5–25.5 24.5–25.5 Maintained
CapEx & Capitalized Software ($USD Millions)FY 2025$99–$109 $99–$109 Maintained
LSEG Market Data Contract Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2025~$90 ~$90 Maintained
Dividend per share ($USD)Q1 2025$0.12 (declared in Q4) $0.12 (payable 6/16/25) Maintained
Credit Fixed Fees ($USD Millions)Q2 2025+$6–$7 vs Q1; revenue neutral via lower variable fees; cash credit fee per million −~$9 QoQ Mix shift to fixed

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (prior)Q4 2024 (prior)Q1 2025 (current)Trend
AI/automation (AiEX)Building protocol adoption across ETFs/equity derivatives Institutional UST AiEX trades +20% YoY; RFQ Edge rollout; Aladdin integration phase 2 Institutional UST AiEX +15% YoY; credit AiEX +15% YoY; continued automation across asset classes Accelerating
U.S. Treasuries protocolsRecord ADV; growth in swaps and mortgages; r8fin contributing wholesale volumes Streaming/sessions adoption; wholesale near record revenue; multi‑protocol strategy (streams, CLOB, sweep, r8fin) Highest revenue quarter in wholesale; record adoption of streaming/sessions; institutional share >50% vs main competitor Strengthening
Swaps risk tradingSwaps ≥/<1Y growth; duration stable Risk market share record; total share dipped on lower compression; diverse currency/client base Record revenues; risk share +250 bps YoY; EM swaps revenue +60% YoY; RFM ADVs +70% YoY Positive mix toward risk
Credit franchise & pricingRecord fully electronic HY ADV; growing adoption of PT, RFQ, AllTrade Share gains in IG/HY; AllTrade volume +15% YoY; dealer RFQ growth Shift to subscriptions/minimum floors with dealers; 85% of credit revenue remains variable; April credit revenue double‑digit growth More recurring; still volume‑levered
Regulatory/macroGuidance updates; WGBI inclusion; ICD integration Operating leverage, variable cost base; SLR loosen implications supportive for Treasuries April volatility spike; markets resilient; potential trade/tariff risks; SLR benefits to liquidity and turnover Active 2‑way market; resilience
New products/regionsExpanded EU gov bond basis trade, India leadership EM swaps revenue +80% YoY; Saudi/India offerings planned Portfolio trading launched for European government bonds; EM swaps/credit growth continues Broadening footprint

Management Commentary

  • CEO framing: “Technology is reshaping single market and multi‑asset class trading… record revenue of $509.7M and record trading volume of $164.5T… positive market share trends and greater adoption of electronic protocols and tools.” — Billy Hult .
  • Rates outlook: “Macro uncertainty… global trade war… we see an even greater need for a resilient and efficient electronic trading ecosystem… as the rates leader, we’re going to continue to prosper.” — Billy Hult .
  • Credit pricing evolution: “As our business has scaled… a mix of variable and fixed pricing becomes a mutually beneficial model… still leaves 85% of our credit revenue fully variable, which leaves lots of room for strong revenue growth with volume.” — Sara Furber .
  • Capital allocation: “M&A continues to be our preferred use of cash… disciplined, accretive deals; strong cash ($1.3B), undrawn $500M revolver, no debt.” — Sara Furber .
  • SEC SBSEF approval (CDS): enhances transparency and liquidity for single‑name CDS via TW SEF .

Q&A Highlights

  • Credit pricing transition: Moving dealers from variable to subscriptions/minimum floors; target recurring credit fixed revenue ~13% by end‑Q2 (from <7% in Q1’24); total revenue neutral due to variable fee offset .
  • UST protocols adoption: Streaming/sessions volumes accelerating in wholesale amid lower vol regimes; multi‑protocol suite remains strategic (streams, CLOB, sweep, r8fin) .
  • Regulatory SLR: Potential loosening seen as positive for treasury liquidity, turnover, narrower bid‑ask; supportive for Tradeweb’s rates platforms .
  • EM expansion: Strong EM swaps and growing EM credit; Saudi Arabia launch expected; local dealer onboarding across regions .
  • Digital assets: Focus on trusted shareable data, smart contracts, tokenization; strategic partnerships (GS DAP, Securitize, Alphaledger; Canton Network) to remove workflow friction .

Estimates Context

MetricQ3 2024 ActualQ3 2024 Consensus*Q4 2024 ActualQ4 2024 Consensus*Q1 2025 ActualQ1 2025 Consensus*
Revenue ($USD Millions)$448.9 $447.7*$463.3 $458.2*$509.7 $507.6*
EPS (Adjusted Diluted, $USD)$0.75 $0.7588*$0.76 $0.7422*$0.86 $0.8570*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Implications:

  • Revenue: modest beat vs consensus in Q1; sequential acceleration vs Q4 supports estimate stability/incremental raises in Rates/Money Markets .
  • EPS: adjusted EPS essentially in line/slight beat; margin expansion (+88 bps YoY) may support fine‑tuning upward on EBITDA/EBIT margins .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Momentum broad‑based: Strength in Rates, Money Markets (ICD), and Market Data with resilient equity derivatives; continued adoption of automation (AiEX) is a durable driver .
  • Mix shift in Credit: Transition to subscriptions/minimum floors increases revenue visibility without capping growth (85% still variable); watch Q2 execution and fee per million dynamics .
  • Risk‑on swaps activity: Lower compression, higher risk trading and share gains across currencies elevate fee mix; supportive for margin expansion .
  • Regulatory tailwinds: Potential SLR adjustments and SEC SBSEF approval can deepen liquidity pools/expand CDS workflows—positive for rates/credit volumes .
  • Guidance intact: Unchanged FY’25 ranges with commentary to invest in growth (tech, data, ICD) while still expanding margins; cost base remains ~50% variable/discretionary for operating leverage .
  • Short‑term trading: Near‑term catalysts include streaming/sessions uptake, European gov bond portfolio trading adoption, and monthly ADV prints (Jan $2.44T, Feb $2.49T ADV up 20–33% YoY) .
  • Medium‑term thesis: Multi‑asset network effects and electronification runway (cleared swaps ~30% electronic) underpin durable double‑digit growth; monitor EM build‑out and AI/data strategy execution .

Appendix: Additional Data Points

  • Dividend: Board declared $0.12/share dividend payable June 16, 2025; 20% YoY increase per share .
  • Capital: $1.3B cash & equivalents; $500M undrawn facility; TTM free cash flow $833.6M; Q1 cash CapEx + capitalized software $14.8M .
  • Fees per million highlights: Cash Rates −8%; Long‑tenor swaps +42% (lower compression); Cash Credit −11%; Cash Equities +17%; Money Markets +54% (ICD) .

Citations: All figures and statements derive from the company’s Q1 2025 8‑K/press release and earnings call, prior quarter materials, and other press releases as cited above. Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.