Twin Hospitality Group - Earnings Call - Q4 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Presentation. Please note that this conference call is being recorded today, February 27, 2025. After the market closed, Twin Hospitality issued its quarterly and annual financial results via press release. Please refer to this document, which can be found in the investor section of the company's website at twinpeaksrestaurant.com, among other places. Before we begin, I must remind everyone that part of the discussion today will include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and therefore, undue reliance should not be placed upon them. Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward-looking statements due to a number of risks and uncertainties. Twin Hospitality does not undertake to update these forward-looking statements at a later date. For more detailed discussion and risks that could impact future operating results and financial condition, please see today's earnings release and recent SEC filings.

During today's conference call, the company will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures, which it believes can be useful in evaluating its performance. The presentation of this additional information should not be considered in isolation nor as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations to comparable GAAP measures are available in today's earnings press release. I would now like to turn the call over to Joe Hummel, Chief Executive Officer.

Joe Hummel (CEO)

Hello, and welcome to our inaugural conference call. Today marks another exciting new chapter for us as we begin our journey as Twin Hospitality Group, a standalone publicly traded company. Thank you to all of our team members, franchise partners, and guests for making this achievement possible. In January, our parent company, FAT Brands, spun out its two polished casual brands, Twin Peaks and Smokey Bones, into a distinct corporate entity. As a result, we now trade separately on the NASDAQ under the ticker TWNP. Our public listing creates an opportunity for shareholders to directly participate in Twin Peaks' growth and success while providing us with another source of capital to execute on our robust development plans. Since Twin Peaks has always operated separately within the FAT Brands portfolio, the transition to becoming an independent company has been seamless.

Our experienced executive team, most of whom have guided the brand's growth over a decade, remains firmly in place to lead our continued expansion and value creation. For those of you who are new to Twin Peaks, we're an award-winning restaurant that redefines traditional sports bar experience. Our brand's journey began in 2005 with a single location in the Dallas suburb of Lewisville, Texas, and has since grown to a system of 115 restaurants across 27 states and Mexico. Twin Peaks' unwavering commitment to an exceptional guest experience defines our brand and drives our continued success. Each of our lodges provides a rugged lodge atmosphere, state-of-the-art sports viewing experience, and premium dining. This creates an unparalleled entertainment destination and enables us to generate consistent customer traffic across all day parts, including lunch, happy hour, dinner, and late night.

We offer our guests a made-from-scratch menu, craft beverages featuring 29-degree draft beer, signature cocktails, and attentive service from our engaging staff. Our strategic barbell pricing and approach balances accessible entry-level options with premium offerings, enabling us to serve guests across price points while maintaining exceptional value at entry level. Additionally, our extensive beverage offering supports high-margin revenue across our restaurant base. We launched our newest bar menu in early February, featuring an updated drink menu that adds 19 premium handcrafted cocktails, creative mixed shots, trending categories, and top-tier bourbons and tequilas. The enhancement brings bold flavors and high-end ingredients to the forefront, delivering expertly crafted beverages as Twin Peaks continues to raise the bar on what a sports bar can offer. Currently, alcohol makes up nearly half of all Twin Peaks restaurants' sales, at about two to three times higher than conventional casual dining chains.

Our guests exhibit strong brand loyalty, as demonstrated by our Black Box Intelligence scores. We analyze several consumer sentiment scores, including consumer perception of our food, beverages, service, ambiance, and consumer intent to return. Per Black Box Intelligence, our scores are higher in every category relative to the broader casual dining segment, validating our brand strength. Throughout 2024, we expanded our footprint with nine new lodges, including two in the fourth quarter. Looking ahead, we plan to open nine-11 new units in 2025, with six-seven being franchised. Additionally, we anticipate opening between 10 and 15 new lodges in 2026 and an additional 10-15 in 2027, including Smokey Bones conversions. As we continue growing, we're committed to maintaining a 75-80% franchise-based system.

Our robust growth plans are supported by a pipeline of over 100 signed franchise commitments, with existing franchise partners driving about 75% of that growth. In 2024, we signed four new franchise development agreements, adding a total of 24 new lodge commitments. We then kicked off 2025 with a new five-unit development agreement that will expand Twin Peaks into two new markets, South Dakota and Montana. Based on a 2023 whitespace analysis by Kalibrate's eSite Analytics, we believe the total addressable market for Twin Peaks is approximately 650 lodges in the U.S. and approximately 250 lodges internationally. With a current footprint of 115 lodges, we clearly have significant whitespace opportunities ahead. We have a flexible real estate strategy and have been highly successful at converting various other restaurants and retail stores into Twin Peaks lodges.

This approach, which accounts for approximately 80% of our locations, offers several key advantages: greater availability of potential sites, faster time to market, approximately nine months for a conversion versus 18 months on a ground-up, lower build-out costs, and accelerated return on investment. To help fast-track the brand's growth, at the end of 2023, FAT Brands acquired the 60-unit casual dining chain, Smokey Bones, with plans to convert approximately half to Twin Peaks. These ready-to-convert restaurants provide us with clear visibility into our near-term growth objectives. Our first Smokey Bones conversion took place in Lakeland, Florida, last September. The location more than doubled its sales volume, growing from a $3.5 million Smokey Bones in 2023 to a current annualized run rate of approximately $8 million for Twin Peaks.

Just last week, we celebrated our second Smokey Bones conversion and our first opening of the new year in Brandon, Florida, part of the greater Tampa area. This is the 16th location in our high-performing state of Florida. We currently have two additional company-owned Smokey Bones conversions planned for the remainder of the year, with more to follow in 2026. Looking at our unit economics, Twin Peaks is currently on a path to a billion dollars in sales over the next three to five years. Last year, average unit volumes reached $5.2 million, with top-performing locations exceeding $10 million.

When modeling Twin Peaks openings, we target the following average unit economics in the third full year of operations: AUV of approximately $6.5 million, restaurant-level contribution margin of approximately 16% for our company-owned Twin Peaks restaurants, and cash-on-cash returns of approximately 28.9% for conversions from previous restaurants or retail stores, and 37.1% for new-build restaurants, which equates to an approximately three-year payback period. Twin Peaks' strong unit economics are a critical element of our ability to grow and attract franchise interest in developing the brand. Now, let's turn to the initiatives we're working on for this year. Our marketing strategy is centered around major sporting events, strategically enhanced with additional promotions and programming to create a comprehensive calendar that maintains engagement between these marquee sport events.

This year, we've already had exciting new playoff games, the expanded college football playoffs, and UFC matchups that have been good for traffic drivers and are now beginning to see high enthusiasm around NHL and NBA games. Looking ahead, the NCAA college basketball tournament in March will be a key timeframe for us to carve back some wins from weather challenges during January and February that we all felt. We have developed some exciting new promotions geared towards driving repeat visits throughout the tournament. In the summer, FIFA Club World Cup will have an expanded format during June and July, and we're planning summer soccer promotions to capitalize on this opportunity. In the fall, we'll focus on fantasy football, NFL, and college football watch parties. We will complement this program with heavy sports marketing and endorsers to solidify Twin Peaks' position as the ultimate sports lodge for football season.

We will fill in the sports calendar gaps with promotions and unique campaigns around late-night flatbread specials, strong value messaging around summer-driven cocktails such as our robust Margarita category, along with local specials unique to each lodge. Twin Peaks leverages its local sports lodge field by building strong connections within each community throughout grassroots marketing. This consists of local promo teams activating in and around each lodge, along with unique media tactics crafted for each local market to tap into local sports occasions. In summary, 2025 marks an exciting new chapter for us, and we're just getting started. We have a strong tenured management team, an under-penetrated brand that offers exceptional experiences while providing value to our franchise partners and shareholders. With that, I will now turn the call over to Ken Kuick, CFO of Twin Hospitality Group, to review our fourth quarter 2024 financial information.

Ken Kuick (CFO)

Thank you, Joe. Before I discuss our quarterly results, I'd like to briefly recap our recent spinoff from FAT Brands. On January 30, FAT Brands distributed approximately 5% of their ownership in Twin Hospitality Group's Class A Common Stock to current FAT Brands stockholders, while the remaining shares continue to be held by FAT Brands. Twin Hospitality Group began trading on the NASDAQ at the time of the spinoff, and we are excited as we begin this next chapter. Separately, during the fourth quarter, we refinanced our credit facility to a new 30-year securitization facility. The refinancing stabilizes our financial structure and provides for an additional $25 million in new store financing that will allow us to further drive growth. Moving on to our fourth quarter results, I'll start by noting that 2024 was a 52-week fiscal year and 2023 was a 53-week fiscal year.

The fourth quarter of 2024 was a 13-week quarter, and the fourth quarter of 2023 was a 14-week quarter. There is one more week of operations in last year's results, and the extra week falls in the fourth quarter. Moving on to our quarterly results, our system-wide sales, which includes both Twin Peaks and Smokey Bones, were $184 million, a 4% decrease from last year's quarter. The extra week in 2023's quarter contributed $13.7 million of system-wide sales. Of the total, Twin Peaks' system-wide sales were $148.9 million in the quarter, a slight decrease from $149 million in the prior year quarter. The extra operating week contributed $10.8 million to last year's quarter, which was offset by an increase driven by new Twin Peaks lodges that have opened since the fourth quarter of 2023.

Total revenue was $86.5 million in the quarter, an 8.2% decrease from $94.2 million in last year's quarter. This was driven by the incremental operating week in the prior year quarter, which contributed $6.5 million in revenue, lower same-store sales, and the closure of Smokey Bones location for conversion into Twin Peaks lodges, partially offset by revenues generated by our new Twin Peaks lodges. Looking at revenue between Twin Peaks and Smokey Bones, Twin Peaks' revenue was $51.4 million in the quarter, down $0.2 million from $51.6 million in the prior year quarter. The decrease was due to the extra operating week in the prior year quarter, which contributed $3.6 million of revenue, mostly offset by the opening of new lodges. Smokey Bones' revenue was $35.1 million in the quarter, down from $42.7 million in the prior year quarter.

Smokey Bones' revenue declined as we continue our strategic conversion of Smokey Bones locations into Twin Peaks lodges, which requires temporary closures. As Joe mentioned, approximately half of our Smokey Bones locations are part of this transition plan. Additionally, we have slowed our Smokey Bones marketing activities during this transition period. Lastly, the extra operating week in the prior year quarter contributed approximately $3 million of revenue to Smokey Bones. Company-owned restaurant sales were $77.6 million in the quarter, a 9% decrease from $85.3 million in last year's quarter. This decline was attributed to the temporary closure of two Smokey Bones locations during their conversion to Twin Peaks, lower same-store sales, and the additional operating week in last year's quarter, which contributed $3 million in company-owned restaurant sales.

Twin Peaks' same-store sales decreased 0.6% in the quarter, including a 1.9% decrease at company-owned locations and a 0.1% decrease at franchise locations. Similar to others in the industry, same-store sales in January and February of this year were negatively impacted by weather and other macroeconomic factors. As a result, quarter to date, Twin Peaks' same-store sales have declined 2.8%. As Joe mentioned, we have a full slate of marketing initiatives in place for the remainder of the year and are excited about the upcoming NCAA college basketball tournament in March, as it gives us an opportunity to drive traffic into our lodges. Franchise revenue remained steady at $8.9 million in the quarter compared to last year's quarter, as growth from our new Twin Peaks franchise openings offset the impact of the extra operating week in last year's quarter, which contributed $0.6 million in franchise revenue.

Turning to costs and expenses, food and beverage costs in the quarter remained flat at 27.4% of company-owned restaurant sales, as menu price increases offset higher food costs. Looking ahead, we expect commodity inflation to be in the low single digits for 2025. Labor and benefits costs in the quarter improved 10 basis points to 32.8% over last year's quarter, as labor efficiencies and menu price increase offset wage inflation and sales deleverage. Other operating costs increased 210 basis points to 22% in the quarter compared to 19.9% in the prior year quarter. This increase was primarily due to sales deleveraging and costs associated with the closure of two Smokey Bones locations as we prepare for their conversion into Twin Peaks lodges.

Occupancy costs increased 60 basis points to 8.2% in the quarter compared to 7.6% in last year's quarter due to deleveraging from lower sales. Restaurant-level contribution margin decreased 170 basis points to 8.1% in the quarter compared to 9.8% in last year's quarter. Looking at individual brand performance, Twin Peaks' restaurant-level contribution margin decreased 60 basis points to 14.4% in the quarter compared to 15% in last year's quarter, reflecting the cost of managers and training and training teams associated with the opening of new lodges. As Joe mentioned, we target a 16% restaurant-level contribution margin for new Twin Peaks lodges three years after opening. Smokey Bones' restaurant-level contribution margin decreased 410 basis points to 0.5% in the quarter from 4.6% in last year's quarter.

As we continue to close higher-performing Smokey Bones locations for conversion to Twin Peaks lodges, we expect continued pressure on Smokey Bones' restaurant-level contribution margins. Additionally, we have identified nine underperforming Smokey Bones locations that are expected to be closed during 2025. Advertising expense decreased 50 basis points to 5.4% in the quarter from 5.9% in last year's quarter due to the slowdown in advertising activity at Smokey Bones. General and administrative expenses increased to $12.1 million in the quarter from $8.9 million in the year-ago quarter, primarily due to a $5 million store closure reserve recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024 related to the nine Smokey Bones restaurants that are expected to be closed in 2025. Total other expense net, which consisted primarily of interest expense, was $13.3 million in the quarter compared to $8.1 million in last year's quarter.

Additionally, in the fourth quarter of 2024, we recognized a $2.4 million non-cash loss on extinguishment of debt related to the refinancing of our securitized debt. Net loss in the quarter was $12 million compared to $8.8 million in last year's quarter. Adjusted EBITDA decreased to $4.1 million in the quarter compared to $6.5 million in last year's quarter. The extra operating week in the fourth quarter of 2023 contributed $0.9 million to adjusted EBITDA. Twin Peaks' adjusted EBITDA was $6.2 million in the quarter compared to $7.5 million in last year's quarter, with the extra operating week in last year's quarter contributing $0.8 million. Smokey Bones' adjusted EBITDA was negative $1.9 million in the quarter compared to negative $0.6 million in last year's quarter, with the extra operating week in last year's quarter contributing a positive $0.1 million.

Thank you again for your interest in Twin Hospitality. Joe and I are now happy to answer any questions that you may have. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment while we pull for questions. Our first question is from Roger Lipton with Lipton Financial Services. Please proceed.

Roger Lipton (President)

Yeah. Hi, Joe. Hi, Ken.

Joe Hummel (CEO)

Good evening, Roger.

Roger Lipton (President)

Welcome aboard. Welcome to the great unwatched publicly held marketplace.

Joe Hummel (CEO)

Thank you.

Roger Lipton (President)

Pricing. What kind of pricing have you taken in the last 12 months, and what do you contemplate needing to take to maintain or potentially improve your margins this year?

Joe Hummel (CEO)

Sure. Our rolling price as of December 2024 was just slightly over 200 basis points. Going into Q1, we're looking at taking—we took the price on some targeted markets that had wage increases just due to the state wage increases that have occurred at the beginning of the year. We're still evaluating pricing opportunities with the current environment, but we're really just going to focus on other means of efficiency to focus on the margins. We want to really emphasize the barbell strategy that we have with the menus across all the Twin Peaks restaurants. We provide a compelling price-to-value proposition that appeals to a diverse range of guests. We're going to be very mindful and avoid pricing if possible. We believe the consumer's a bit tired of pricing, and we want to make sure that we drive efficiencies in other areas besides just menu price.

Roger Lipton (President)

Okay. Thank you. You mentioned the cost of conversion is lower, less than building from scratch. Now that you've got a couple of Smokey Bones conversions under your belt, what do you think is a good estimate of what they'll cost?

Joe Hummel (CEO)

Sure. Both of them were great pieces of real estate. Every second-generation building has different scopes of work, but after the two, Lakeland ran us about $4.3 million of total conversion. That would be leasehold improvements and FF&E, where Brandon was a little higher. It was a little more in-depth. It's a bit of a bigger building, and it ran us $4.7 million. We think that $4.3 million-$4.7 million range is a very strong range to stay in, whereas a ground-up with dirt will run you between $6.5 million and $7.5 million. Considerably less capital on a second-generation building. What we're finding in the Smokey Bones is going to be very similar. We've reviewed all the locations that we're wanting to contemplate converting, so we kind of have a good understanding of what that cost is going to range.

Obviously, when you open the walls up of a second-generation building, there's some different things about them, but nothing we really haven't seen considering over 80% of our unit count is conversions.

Roger Lipton (President)

Right. When you open a conversion or, for that matter, open a build from scratch, do you typically advertise a great deal locally, or do you, I mean, is it a soft opening or an aggressive advertising?

Joe Hummel (CEO)

We approach it as a soft opening, even though they don't appear that way. When you have a strong piece of real estate, everybody sees you building it for six to eight months, so that's advertising in its own right. We try to stay out of the normal marketing for the time being. We want to go soft, but soft doesn't seem to be happening nowadays. There's a lot of excitement around the new openings.

Roger Lipton (President)

The Brandon has only opened how long? Two weeks now?

Joe Hummel (CEO)

Yeah. We're in our second week, so we're very excited. Very strong reception from the greater Tampa area and the Brandon. Brandon's obviously a little bigger market than Lakeland, but the reception was fantastic.

Roger Lipton (President)

Okay. When would be the next one? The next opening, right? Conversion or otherwise?

Joe Hummel (CEO)

Our next opening is actually going to be in Algonquin, Illinois, which is a suburb of Chicago. One of our franchise partners is in the process of doing that, and they're in the final stages. Our training team's getting ready to leave. We are very excited about that. It is a second generation. It's not a Smokey Bones. It's another brand that was out there. From a Smokey Bones perspective, we're in demo in Kissimmee, Florida, which is Orlando. We have a couple other that we're in the middle of permitting review with different cities.

Roger Lipton (President)

Got it. The one in Chicago, is that a new market for you, or do you have?

Joe Hummel (CEO)

No, that will be our we have a store in Oak Brook, Illinois, Warrenville, Illinois, and then there's one just in the DMA of Chicago, which is Schererville, Indiana. This will be, I guess I would call it our fourth in the Chicago DMA. We're very excited about it.

Roger Lipton (President)

Okay. Do you have a strategy?

Joe Hummel (CEO)

We're trying to get close to Ken's hometown.

Roger Lipton (President)

Okay. Do you have a strategy in terms of out of the 10 or 11 that'll open this year, how many do you target X % in new markets and X % in existing markets, or don't you worry too much about that?

Joe Hummel (CEO)

No, we really just target the best real estate within our franchise community and within our corporate development areas. We do not necessarily concern ourselves if it is a new DMA or an existing DMA with multiple Twin Peaks. Obviously, we want to be mindful of any kind of cannibalization, so we have that in thought in mind if we are too close or not too close. It does not really come into effect. We just want to make sure that we have the best piece of real estate, and then we go from there with it.

Roger Lipton (President)

I reasonably hesitate to ask a question, but I'll take a chance and say, over the how many stores have you closed in the last 12 or 15 years that you've been building this brand?

Joe Hummel (CEO)

Roger, I'd have to give you the exact number. I don't have many off the top of my head, but I don't have the exact number. I certainly can get that to you later. It's not many.

Roger Lipton (President)

That is what a shareholder would be hoping, right?

Joe Hummel (CEO)

Right. Generally, if there's a closure within the life of Twin Peaks, it's generally if the market has shifted and the lease extensions have run out and we've chosen to relocate to a fresher market or a fresher building, whatever it may be. That's generally the reason a market would close. Sure, there have been, with the brand nearing 20 years, there are some leases that are out there that are coming up on 15, 20 years, so there might have been some market shifts. That would drive some of that.

Roger Lipton (President)

Yeah. Yeah. I wasn't so concerned about a 20-year lease that expired. I was more concerned about a store that's just not doing the numbers to carry the real estate.

Joe Hummel (CEO)

Sure. Yes.

Roger Lipton (President)

Okay. Thanks very much, Joe.

Joe Hummel (CEO)

Yes. Thank you, Roger.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Peter Saleh with BTIG. Please proceed.

Peter Saleh (Managing Director and BTIG Restaurants and Food Distributors Analyst)

Great. Thanks. Congrats on a successful spin. I had a couple of questions maybe on the 2025 guide. Just for clarity, the 9-11 Twin Peaks that you guys highlighted in 2025, is that all U.S., or are there any units that we should be expecting internationally?

Joe Hummel (CEO)

We're anticipating approximately two in Mexico. We have seven currently now, and our partners down there are constantly working different real estate deals, but we anticipate two locations in Mexico if everything pans out with the lease negotiations.

Peter Saleh (Managing Director and BTIG Restaurants and Food Distributors Analyst)

That's seven to nine U.S.?

Joe Hummel (CEO)

Yes, sir. Seven.

Peter Saleh (Managing Director and BTIG Restaurants and Food Distributors Analyst)

Two in domestic? Okay. Got it.

Joe Hummel (CEO)

Correct.

Peter Saleh (Managing Director and BTIG Restaurants and Food Distributors Analyst)

Two in Mexico. Got it. Does the conversions—there's two conversions that you're planning—are those included in the 7-9, or are those in addition to the 7-9?

Joe Hummel (CEO)

Those are included in the 7-9. I think, as we were talking about it, there were just two more corporate conversions that we were anticipating after we opened a corporate conversion two weeks ago in Brandon, Florida. That is what that was referencing. It is a part of the 7-9 domestics.

Peter Saleh (Managing Director and BTIG Restaurants and Food Distributors Analyst)

Got it. Okay. Just as we think about the Smokey Bones, I see the EBITDA for that brand slightly negative. Should we anticipate any more closures in 2025? I suspect if you close some of those really underperforming units, that could be a boost to EBITDA and cash flow.

Ken Kuick (CFO)

Yeah. I'll take that one. As we've talked about, there are about 60 original Smokey Bones restaurants. We'll convert half of them into Twin Peaks locations. The ones that we won't convert are really because there's a Twin Peaks down the street, so we don't want to cannibalize an existing Twin Peaks or that Smokey Bones location sits in a mall that restricts alcohol sales. Of the 30 that we are not going to convert, so far we've identified 9 that will close in 2025. We're always watching the operations of the restaurant, so it is very possible that we would close additional restaurants. It will continue to be a drag on our margins. We broke out the margins by concept on the call, and those restaurants will be a drag for a period of time.

Joe and I and the team are working to close those as quickly as possible.

Peter Saleh (Managing Director and BTIG Restaurants and Food Distributors Analyst)

Understood. Okay. Very helpful. Just maybe a couple more in terms of on the development. Anything we should be aware of on the cadence of the development, particularly in the U.S., the 7-9? Is it more back-end weighted? Is it kind of evenly spaced? How should we be thinking about that?

Joe Hummel (CEO)

You'll see probably a bit of a gap in Q2 because a lot of construction will be starting, so we'll see Q3, Q4. Obviously, we just opened Brandon. We're getting ready to open Algonquin, the Chicago market. Then you'll probably see something start popping again in late Q3, Q4, and then it will start popping and open again.

Peter Saleh (Managing Director and BTIG Restaurants and Food Distributors Analyst)

Awesome.

Joe Hummel (CEO)

You get some of those delays sometimes with permitting and what have you.

Peter Saleh (Managing Director and BTIG Restaurants and Food Distributors Analyst)

Right. Just on same-store sales, I know we started off the year down 2.8% here, January, February, kind of consistent with what we're hearing from others in the industry. How do you anticipate the year to progress? You expect some improvement from there sequentially? Are there some easier comparers or tougher comparers we should be aware of? Any calendar shifts? Anything that we should be aware of on that front?

Joe Hummel (CEO)

Obviously, we started with that 3728 number with 1% of it roughly being weather. We all experienced some fun weather that was not so fun for all of us. As the weather starts to improve, the excitement we are seeing as we got into P3 here recently and with all the excitement building around March Madness, NBA playoffs, NHL, we are optimistic of how the traffic and the sales will continue to go. Always rollovers exist.

There is some shift in the Easter rollover, but the bigger thing for us is shifts in the sports calendar and different games and the success and not-so-success of the home teams and what that affects the store. We always pay attention to that. We are always studying the calendar and who is winning and who is losing. That is what we play with in the sports bar world. We are feeling a lot of that.

Peter Saleh (Managing Director and BTIG Restaurants and Food Distributors Analyst)

That's very good.

Joe Hummel (CEO)

We are feeling a lot of energy with the basketball playoffs coming.

Peter Saleh (Managing Director and BTIG Restaurants and Food Distributors Analyst)

Got it. Best of luck. Thanks, guys.

Joe Hummel (CEO)

Thanks, Peter.

Ken Kuick (CFO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Greg Fortunoff, private investor. Please proceed.

Greg Fortunoff (CEO)

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my call. I have a couple of questions. There has been a number of things written about Hooters in sort of conjunction with Twin Peaks. Can you just talk about how the closing or the bankruptcy of Hooters is affecting Twin Peaks? Good, bad, or nothing, or how that works?

Joe Hummel (CEO)

Sure. Obviously, we operate somewhat in the same segment. From our brand perspective, we have an all-female waitstaff just like they do. I think outside of that, the comparison's not very close. We have great buildings, unbelievable TV packages, a scratch kitchen, a very expensive bar, and you can't match the 29-degree beer. We're not really feeling the effects of them. We'll probably start picking up some clientele, but I think their numbers are pretty low, so I'm not sure how big of a clientele lift we'll get off of it. As far as real estate goes, we'll always evaluate in their real estate or anybody's real estate that is the best real estate that could be a possibility for a conversion for us. That's kind of how we look at Hooters. We look at all the casual dining brands similar.

Everybody has an aspect of their brand that is competitive with us, and we attack that and try to outoperate and operate with excellence on those parts of their success or not.

Greg Fortunoff (CEO)

Basically, no major effect one way or the other?

Joe Hummel (CEO)

That's the long answer.

Greg Fortunoff (CEO)

Okay.

Ken Kuick (CFO)

I would add, Greg, that there's a lot of workers out there. As we're opening restaurants, we're always looking for front-of-house, back-of-house folks, and this probably gives us a bigger population to go pick from.

Greg Fortunoff (CEO)

That's a very good point, Ken.

Joe Hummel (CEO)

Yeah. That is a good point. There'll be some possible influx of potential candidates for us.

Greg Fortunoff (CEO)

Okay. That makes sense. Just out of curiosity, what percentage of yearly sales does March Madness account for? Is it outsized?

Joe Hummel (CEO)

I'm sorry. What was the last part of the question? Is it?

Greg Fortunoff (CEO)

Is it like an outsized percentage? Like the two weeks of March Madness, does that account for a certain percentage of sales that's outsized versus anything else, or are there other things that?

Joe Hummel (CEO)

No. No. It's not outsized. I mean, we really play within the whole sports calendar. As you're aware, the sports calendar is so stretched out nowadays. The Expanded College Football Playoffs, the NFL Playoffs, all the pay-per-views with our friends at UFC, and any kind of boxing—there's one this weekend—will be exciting. You just see some energy levels go up and down, but I don't see heavy lopsided percentages for March Madness versus other sports. The sports watcher is spreading their eyes out on so many different things. Soccer is starting to drag into our stores. We're seeing a lot of good positive wins with that, with Champions League and Premier League, and we have the FIFA Club World Cup getting ready for the World Cup in 2026. There are so many different sporting events. March Madness does not outsized us.

Greg Fortunoff (CEO)

Okay. A couple more easy ones, and then I'll get to the hard ones. Nowadays, there's so many sports betting apps and all these things. Has it ever come up to do a partnership with anyone or some kind of promotions with any of these, or you're trying to just stay neutral and not pick a side?

Joe Hummel (CEO)

You bring up a good point. We have been approached, and we've looked at it. Obviously, different states have different laws, so that prevents a nationwide sporting app within the stores. What we see is by us having three to four views of TVs for sports, everybody has their sports betting app. They're more in tune to watching all the different games, whether it's RedZone or the multiple different games we have on with 12 different satellites. We want to just stay focused. We're there for them to have all their games that they're betting to be able to watch. We try not to be the gambler advisor. That would not be prudent on our part. We want to just let them be able to see everything they're betting on. That's what we see mostly of.

The different states with different rules and laws around it makes it a little complicated.

Greg Fortunoff (CEO)

Okay. Are you able to give an EBITDA forecast for 2025? Are you guys doing that? I mean, I haven't heard it, but can you?

Ken Kuick (CFO)

Yeah. We're not at this time, Greg, but I think by the second quarter, we will. What Joe and I and the team are working through really is the conversion of Smokey Bones and the impact on the margins of those restaurants we want to close and what restaurants we're going to close. As that becomes more firm for us, which we believe it will in the next two or three months, we'll be in a position to provide much more clarity.

Greg Fortunoff (CEO)

On the last call, I just want to—I'm not sure if I heard this right or wrong. I thought Andy said you were considering doing an offering. I'm assuming there's something other than equity, or is it possible? I just want to make sure—let me say it differently—that you're not going to be doing an equity offering anytime soon or at this price.

Ken Kuick (CFO)

When we refinanced our securitization facility—this is Twin Peaks—we agreed with our bondholders that we would raise $100 million of Twin Peaks equity between now and the end of October, the piece of it at the end of April, and that we would use 75% of those proceeds to buy down debt. There will be an equity raise between now and October of $100 million. What happens from there? It obviously depends on price, and Joe and I are speaking with our board of directors and our bankers and where the market's right, and if it provides additional shareholder value, we have a public security available to do that.

Greg Fortunoff (CEO)

Are you talking about equity or something else, that equity?

Ken Kuick (CFO)

Equity.

Greg Fortunoff (CEO)

I mean, because selling stock at this price, I mean, it just doesn't seem—I mean, this is supposed to have a billion-dollar valuation. If you're selling stock at a $400 million valuation, it doesn't seem very shareholder-friendly.

Ken Kuick (CFO)

Agreed. What we don't want to do is sell shares at a low price. There are options for us to raise that financing. It could be a preferred security, structure preferred. There are options for us to do that. Where the market's not favorable for us, we won't sell into the market.

Greg Fortunoff (CEO)

Okay. Last question. A little personal. You can tell me you don't want to answer. None of my business. Since the stock has dropped precipitously, I'm just wondering if there's been any discussion amongst you and your team about buying stock when you're allowed.

Joe Hummel (CEO)

As a management team?

Greg Fortunoff (CEO)

I mean, I'll ask you, but I would imagine that you're all in your chops.

Joe Hummel (CEO)

As a management team.

Greg Fortunoff (CEO)

What's that? No, I meant individually as an insider buyer. I mean, the stocks would seem like everyone would be licking their chops to own the stock with a five-year horizon, big growth, and all that. I'm just curious.

Joe Hummel (CEO)

I'll be careful. Yeah. I'll be careful how I answer it because I don't want to answer it in a way I shouldn't answer it. I'll say this. I believe, and I think it'll be hard for us to find a CEO or CFO that thinks their stock is overvalued. I believe there is a significant value and momentum play in Twin Peaks. There's a pipeline of over 100 units built in, signed, paid for. We've got the real estate for Smokey Bones. Yes, I believe that if you asked me if I would be a buyer at this price, I would personally, but I can't make that recommendation to anybody out there.

Greg Fortunoff (CEO)

All right. I look forward to seeing your buys in the filings, and that's it for me. Congratulations on getting public, and I wish you the best.

Joe Hummel (CEO)

Thanks.

Ken Kuick (CFO)

Thank you, Greg.

Operator (participant)

It looks like there are no more questions. I would like to turn the call back over to Joe Hummel for his closing remarks.

Joe Hummel (CEO)

I'd like to thank everybody for joining us on our inaugural call, and we look forward to our next earnings call.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.