Ternium - Q2 2024
July 31, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Thank you for standing by. My name is Kayla, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Ternium Second Quarter 2024 Results. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you'd like to ask a question during this time, simply press star, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, again, press the star and one. I would now like to turn the call over to Sebastián Martí. You may begin.
Sebastián Martí (Global Investor Relations and Compliance Senior Director)
Thank you. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. My name is Sebastián Martí, Ternium's Global IR and Compliance Senior Director. Yesterday, Ternium released its financial results for the second quarter and the first half of 2024. This call is intended to complement that presentation. I'm joined today by Máximo Vedoya, Ternium's Executive Officer, and Pablo Brizzio, Ternium's Chief Financial Officer, who will discuss Ternium's business environment and performance. We will open the floor to questions following our prepared remarks. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this conference call contains forward-looking information and that actual results may vary from those expressed or implied. Factors that could affect results are contained in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and on page two in today's webcast presentation.
Alex Hacking (Equity Research Analyst)
You will also find any reference to non-IFRS financial measures reconciled to the most directly comparable IFRS measures in the press release issued yesterday. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mr. Vedoya.
Máximo Vedoya (CEO)
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for our Second Quarter's Earnings Call. Ternium posted a healthy Adjusted EBITDA of $545 million for the second quarter, maintaining stable shipments with a 12% margin during a weak steel price environment. The company generated strong cash from operation of $656 million, which contributed to maintaining a solid net cash position of $1.9 billion, even after distributing record dividends during the quarter and sustaining significant capital expenditures due to ongoing expansion initiatives. In addition, net income during the quarter was affected by the recording of an accounting provision that we were required to make as a result of an adverse Brazilian court decision issued last June, related to our acquisition of a stake in Usiminas back in 2012. Ternium believes that such decision is contrary to applicable substantive and procedural law.
Alex Hacking (Equity Research Analyst)
We did not acquire sole control over Usiminas when we joined the control group. The courts changed their previous view, now finding that the change of control occurred contradicts both the terms of the Usiminas shareholders' agreement and how Usiminas' governance worked in reality. Consequently, we plan to strongly defend our position, which has been confirmed by a long line of precedents and court decisions, and file all motions and appeals available to us. All such motions and appeals will need to be resolved before the case becomes final, and the determination of an actual payment amount, if any, should be made by a lower court in a separate proceeding. Let me now give you an update on our growth projects.
I am glad to say that we just started up the first line in the downstream project at 550,000 tons, pickling line, and also the first line in our new finishing center in Pesquería. The rest of the finishing lines should be ready by the end of the year, and the cold rolling mill and galvanized lines are on track to be delivered between the end of next year and the beginning of 2026. In addition, in early July, we introduced a new galvanized simulator in our R&D center in Mexico. This will enable us to shorten certification times and improve the assessment of our product quality.
With the downstream project in Mexico and our new R&D center, we are adding more value-added products that will enable us to better serve our customers in the automotive, renewable energy, and high-end appliance industries, as well as in the construction and agriculture sectors. These new lines are a great opportunity for us to consolidate our position as a leading steel supplier in the region, as we continue to meet the demand for high-end steel products in Mexico, displacing steel imports and benefiting from nearshoring. In addition, the new 2.6-million-ton steel slab mill in Pesquería continues to advance, with completion expected by mid-2026. These projects will enhance our capabilities in the USMCA region and position us as a leader in low-emission steelmakers. This is the largest expansion project in our history, and we are thrilled about its progress.
Let me now make some comments about our main steel markets. The steel market in Mexico remains healthy, operating at good levels after last year's significant 14% year-over-year increase in apparent steel consumption. The industrial steel market is stable and strong, with the auto industry showing healthy steel demand. Automotive production in Mexico in the first half of this year increased 5% year-over-year. The commercial market has been a little more affected by the steel prices' downturn during the quarter, which induces a destocking process. In addition, construction activity was impacted by a tropical storm by the end of the quarter. On the other hand, activity related to warehousing and logistics infrastructure continued to be strong, as well as natural gas pipeline projects.
A recent development in this market was the implementation by the U.S. administration of a 25% duty under Section 232 on imports from Mexico of steel produced not melted and poured in the USMCA region. Following this, Mexico's president announced that exports of steel products made with Brazilian steel could be exempted from this duty. This exception is in process of being forwarded. Regarding this subject, there has been much discussion in the U.S. market about a supposed surge of Mexican steel imports and about the need to control transshipments of Chinese steel through Mexico. So let me be clear, this view is mistaken, and trade data indicates even the opposite situation. Steel trade between Mexico and the U.S. is mutually beneficial, with a surplus for the U.S. In 2023, the U.S. exported 4.1 million metric tons of finished steel to Mexico.
On the other hand, Mexico exported 2.3 million tons of finished steel to the U.S. This is 43% less than what the U.S. exports to Mexico. Looking at these numbers in terms of market share, steel from the U.S. represents 14% of Mexican market share, while Mexico steel represents only 2.5% of U.S. market share. Regarding the surge in imports from Mexico, when comparing the first five months of this year, U.S. exports of finished steel to Mexico increased by 7% compared to the same period in 2023. In contrast, Mexican exports to the U.S. decreased by 12%. This followed the trend observed in 2023, when U.S. exports of finished steel to Mexico rose by 11%, while Mexico exports to the U.S. declined by 28% year-over-year.
Regarding China's transshipments, U.S. statistics published in SIMA show that in 2023, 144,000 tons of steel melted in China entered the U.S. via third countries. Of that volume, 52% came from Thailand, 15% from Oman, 13% from Canada. Mexico was responsible for only 0.2% of that volume, almost nothing. Mexico has shown a strong commitment to fight against unfair trade practices, mainly from Asian countries, which truly harm the USMCA economy, and Mexico continues to work on this issue. So to avoid misconceptions, U.S. trade data plainly show that there's neither a surge nor China's transshipment in Mexico steel exports to the U.S. market. Moving now to Brazil, the operational issues we had with one blast furnace in our Rio de Janeiro slab facility were resolved, and the furnace is back to full capacity now, although this had an impact on our shipments in Mexico during the second quarter.
On the other hand, Usiminas shipments in Brazil grew by 6%, with growth in all segments, especially in the automotive industry and manufacturing sector, reflecting growth in apparent consumption of flat steel in the country during the second quarter. Crude steel production increased 17% in the second quarter. This is due to the stabilization of Usiminas blast furnace number 3, which has now finished its ramp-up. In June, this blast furnace was able to achieve the highest monthly production of the last 11 years. There are significant efficiency gains being achieved, as what Usiminas does today with two blast furnaces in the past was done with three blast furnaces. On the other hand, as we have talked in the past, the Brazilian steel sector faces a serious threat from imports in the domestic market and the predatory conditions mostly from China.
The recent increase in import tariffs to 25% for some steel products that exceed a certain quarter is a positive but, until now, inefficient measure. It falls short of what other countries in the region have adopted to save all their local producers, and we have not seen any significant decline in imports during the second quarter. We have faith that the authorities will acknowledge this situation and maintain their course of action with the introduction of additional trade measures down the road. In Argentina, shipments began to recover after the significant decrease in the first quarter, reflecting a gradual improvement in steel demand, although they continue to be affected by short-term impacts of Argentina's government economic stabilization measures on the construction and industrial sectors.
On our climate change initiative, our climate change initiatives are advancing, with the on-schedule construction of our first wind farm in Buenos Aires Province in Argentina, which should be operational by year-end. In addition, our technical school in Pesquería was recognized by the Mexican government in the voluntary national reports towards the United Nations Agenda for Sustainability Development. Our technical school was considered an institution that serves as a model of how companies can positively impact their communities and sustainability. Since its establishment in 2016, the school has graduated more than 600 students, with 83% either studying or employed. We are extending this practice to Brazil with the construction of our second technical school in Santa Cruz, near our plant in Rio de Janeiro, with activities set to commence next year. Finally, I am positive regarding Ternium's performance as we move through the following quarters.
After an expected bottom of margins in the third quarter related to the lack of reset of contract price at lower levels, we anticipate shipments to continue growing with healthy demand in our main markets and margins to increase, as steel prices are beginning to rise and costs are showing downtrends. Okay, Pablo, please proceed now with your comments about our performance in the second quarter.
Pablo Brizzio (CFO)
Thanks, Máximo, and good morning to everyone. Let's now look at the webcast presentation for detailed review of our company's operating and financial results. If we start with page three, we will review the second quarter performance. Our adjusted EBITDA achieved $545 million. The primary driver of the sequential change were lower realized prices in our key markets, together with a modest rise in cost per ton. Consequently, our adjusted EBITDA margins show a slight decrease, settling at 12%. Looking ahead to the third quarter, Ternium expects a decline in adjusted EBITDA that is mainly due to the decrease in EBITDA margins, although increased shipments across key markets will partially offset this impact. We anticipate lower realized steel prices in the third quarter, primarily because contract prices in Mexico will adjust to lower levels as a result of soft spot prices conditions during the second quarter.
Alex Hacking (Equity Research Analyst)
Net income during the quarter was negatively affected by a recording of a $783 million provision for the ongoing litigation related to the acquisition of the participation in Usiminas in 2012 that Máximo already mentioned. We were required to make as a result of the adverse Brazilian court decision issued in June. Excluding this provision, adjusted net income decreased sequentially to $40 million, reflecting a significant change in deferred taxes of $191 million due to the 9% depreciation of the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar during the quarter. Now let's turn our attention to the performance of our steel segment on page 4. In our last earnings release call, we guided for an increase in shipments in Mexico. In fact, Ternium's steel shipments in Mexico experienced a slight decline in the second quarter.
As already explained by Máximo, in the commercial market, demand was negatively affected by the downturn in steel prices during the whole quarter. In addition, shipments were also negatively impacted by a tropical storm, which affected the value chain in the state of Nuevo León and Tamaulipas during June. In the industrial market, the automotive industry remained strong, with some small decline in household appliances industry tied to decreasing housing in the U.S. Looking forward, we anticipate a consistent demand in Mexico's industrial and commercial market with supply chain stocks at manageable levels. Shipments in Brazil increased sequentially by 6% in the second quarter, with growth across all segments, particularly in the automotive industry and the manufacturing sector. Looking ahead, we expect a rise in shipments in the third quarter, supported by the projected growth of the automotive industries and advances in the construction sector.
In the southern region, steel shipments saw a slight increase, reflecting improving conditions in the Argentina steel market. While the pace of the recovery for Argentina remains uncertain, we anticipate an increase in shipments in the third quarter. Let's now review the steel segment consolidated sales and profitability on the next page. Looking at the upper left chart, steel product sales declined in the second quarter primarily due to lower realized steel prices in Ternium's main markets. Cash operating income per ton and margin for the steel segment in the top right chart were also impacted by the price decline. Additionally, cost per ton increased slightly during this period. Looking ahead, we expect margins to decline sequentially in the third quarter, primarily due to the effect of contract prices in Mexico to lower levels and the current soft spot prices condition.
Now let's turn to page six to examine the performance of the mining segment. We see that net sales for the mining segment remained stable, as both volume and revenue per ton in the second quarter were steady. On page seven, let's see the adjusted EBITDA and net income. As previously commented, the top chart highlighted the primary factors behind the sequential decrease in adjusted EBITDA: a significant drop in realized steel prices in our key markets and a minor increase in cost per ton. In the chart below, we can see the impact of net results from the decreased operating income and the higher deferred tax loss primarily due to the depreciation of the Mexican peso, as I mentioned before. This was partially offset by improved financial results. Now let's proceed to the next slide to evaluate our cash flow performance in the second quarter. It was strong.
Cash flow provided by operational activities of $656 million helped in part by a decrease in working capital. Capital expenditure was $409 million during this period, along with advances in the development of the downstream and upstream projects in Pesquería Industrial Center and also the advances in the constructions in our new wind farm in Argentina. The strong cash generated, together with a $150 million increase in the fair value of financial instruments, contributed to maintain Ternium's solid financial position as of the end of the second quarter, with a net cash position of $1.9 billion, experiencing only a modest decline during the quarter while it paid a record level of dividends. Turning to page nine, let's see our performance on the first half of the year. Steel shipments reached 7.7 million tons in the first half.
This growth was primarily driven by the consolidation of Usiminas, which also influenced mining shipments according to the upper right chart. Adjusted EBITDA for the first half of the year was $1.4 billion. The margin declined year-over-year, largely due to the lower steel prices and the consolidation of Usiminas in the second half of last year. In the lower right chart, adjusted earnings per ADS stood at $1.7 in the first half. This represents a decline compared to the first half of last year. The decrease is attributed to lower operating results and the deferred tax loss I mentioned before. On the final slide, cash flow from operations was strong in the first half of 2024, amounting to $1.1 billion after accounting for capital expenditures of $858 million. Free cash flow in the first half of the year was $274 million.
So with this, we prepare our initial remarks, and we can now start the Q&A session. Thank you very much for your attention. Please go ahead.
Operator (participant)
As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and the number one on your telephone keypad. Our first question comes from the line of Caio Ribeiro with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Caio Ribeiro (Managing Director)
Good morning, everyone. Thanks for the opportunity. So my first question is more market-related. I just wanted to see if you could provide an update on HRC prices in the U.S., which have been under pressure over the last months, and whether you see any green shoots emerging ahead which could support a rebound. And then secondly, more specific to MUSA, I just wanted to see if you have any updates on that front, any revised CapEx expectations regarding that potential expansion at the MUSA asset, and when you would expect to take a decision with that project or not.
Alex Hacking (Equity Research Analyst)
And then on a similar note, still related to MUSA, with the recent correction in iron ore prices to $100 per ton, whether there would be any changes to your planned production levels in the asset, and if not, if there would be a certain price level where you would contemplate reducing your third-party iron ore sales from that asset? Thank you.
Máximo Vedoya (CEO)
Thank you, Caio, for your questions. The first one, prices in North America or in the U.S., I mean, I said it in my initial remarks, HRCs in the U.S. were down to around $700 per metric ton by the end of last month. But we are seeing today that these prices by the end of July, not last month, by the last week, I guess. But we are seeing increasing prices. So we feel that this is a bottom of the price. Of course, in our pricing, some part of this you are not going to realize is in the third quarter because of the lack of the contract part of our business. But yes, we are seeing this to be the bottom part, and we are seeing some indication that this is coming up.
Alex Hacking (Equity Research Analyst)
In a more medium or long term, as I always said, I think that demand both in the U.S. and in Mexico is still very strong in different sectors. But I see Mexico, although it grew by 14% last year, the apparent consumption of steel is still growing in Mexico, and I see robust demand in the U.S. Again, I think that what impacted prices the last couple of months was the excess production of China, which that production for the last 5 or 6 months, China has been on a record of export of steel, and this is coming down, and it has to come down. It's not that this volume is coming to the U.S. or Mexico, but clearly this is affecting other markets, which then are shipping to Mexico and the U.S.
So on the bottom, I think, yes, it is a bottom, and we are seeing clear evidence that prices are going up and will be going up in the near future. I hope with this, Caio, I answered your question, the first one at least.
Caio Ribeiro (Managing Director)
Yes, definitely. That's very clear. Thank you, Máximo.
Máximo Vedoya (CEO)
Perfect. Second, MUSA, I think we talked in the past, but I don't remember, but the decision of the MUSA project should be taken by the end of next year. We are working on the project. We are working in advancing in all the things that we are advancing, engineering, which will be the technology, the permission, the yes, all the permissions that we need, the scope of the project. There is a team working in everything. But the decision, we are not going to make the decision this year. Probably it should be by the end of next year. And regarding the production, we are not seeing today a decline or a huge decline in production. As you well mentioned, prices have been a little bit volatile, but they're decreasing to $100, then going up a little bit, then decreasing again to $100, then going up a little bit.
Alex Hacking (Equity Research Analyst)
So it seems that $100 is kind of the bottom of the spectrum of the prices of iron ore. It's not the price that we are very, very comfortable, but MUSA can work with that price. So we are not expecting a huge decline in volumes in MUSA, but probably a part or a small part, we are revising the marginal cost of some of the production of MUSA, but it shouldn't be huge.
Caio Ribeiro (Managing Director)
Thank you, Máximo. That's super clear. I appreciate it.
Máximo Vedoya (CEO)
You're welcome, Caio.
Operator (participant)
The next question comes from the line of Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Carlos De Alba (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Yeah, good morning. Good morning, everyone. Thank you very much. Just a question, Máximo, maybe on the 25% import tariffs that the U.S. put on Mexican steel exports into the U.S. that are not melted in the country. The 25%, the exemption for Brazil, is that official and a done deal, or it's still subject to negotiations and a final decision? Because I haven't really seen an official document or announcement, and in fact, there are talks that maybe the U.S. officials are having cold feet on that.
Máximo Vedoya (CEO)
Hello. Good morning, Carlos. I think it's official. I mean, the president of Mexico announced it. So I don't know if and then there is a formal proclamation from the Mexican government saying this. So I guess it is official. I think that what is happening, it has to be implemented. Remember, when they announced the 25%, the implementation came two weeks later, and I think this is happening now, but we are working on that assumption.
Carlos De Alba (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Yeah. What I'm hearing is that the U.S. officials have not signed up on that. And the fact that the Mexican president has said it doesn't necessarily mean that the U.S. is going to follow. But anyway, I mean, something to monitor clearly because of the relevance that it will have on Ternium business. And then on Usiminas, how do you see the evolution of this lawsuit from CSN? I think you mentioned a little bit on your prepared remarks, but if you can elaborate a little bit more on what would be the next steps. And that would be one point. And the second point on the same topic is apparently there is a court decision that is forcing CSN to sell the shares that they own in Usiminas in the short term, I guess. Would Ternium negotiate with CSN and acquire those shares?
Alex Hacking (Equity Research Analyst)
Is that a possibility, or you are not interested in increasing further your stake in Usiminas at this time?
Máximo Vedoya (CEO)
Okay. I answered the second question first, Caio? No, Carlos. Caio. Sorry, Carlos. The same letter, at least. The second part of that question, the answer is no. And the first part of the question regarding the status of the CSN Ternium judicial process, let me say that, I mean, this is a judicial process that is ongoing right now, this week and the following week. So to be honest, I prefer not to add much more of what I have said already in my prepared remarks because, I mean, as I said, it's something that is ongoing, and there's a lot of things going on. So I stick to what I said in my initial remarks, Carlos. I hope you understand.
Carlos De Alba (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Yeah, no, for sure. And then just a follow-up on the first part of my second question. Why wouldn't Ternium negotiate with CSN more Usiminas shares? If you can add any color, that would be great.
Pablo Brizzio (CFO)
Hi, Carlos. This is Pablo. First of all, as you know, this is a process that, you're right, is going on in Brazil, but the process in Brazil is long. So we cannot count that this will be the case immediately. So we are not in any position to say what will happen and what we will do in respect to that. So it's happening in Brazil, but it's nothing that we can do at this moment.
Carlos De Alba (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay. Thank you, Pablo.
Pablo Brizzio (CFO)
You're welcome.
Máximo Vedoya (CEO)
Thank you, Carlos.
Carlos De Alba (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Thank you, Máximo. Bye.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Timna Tanners (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Yeah. Hey, good morning. Regarding the situation with the Brazilian imported slabs, it's all very interesting, but at the end of the day, does it really matter that much for Ternium if indeed, as you pointed out very nicely, Mexico doesn't export that much to the U.S.? And also, it seems like you're pretty busy with good demand in Mexico. Lázaro Cárdenas isn't going to produce much in the third quarter, if any. Are you seeing opportunities to take shares? Can you talk a little bit more about any opportunity from AHMSA potentially declaring bankruptcy? Thanks.
Máximo Vedoya (CEO)
Thank you, Timna. You are a little bit right, but of course, I mean, nobody likes to have something taken away. I mean, and remember, we are not the only ones exporting to the U.S. So I mean, the sense is having a restriction in the export from Mexico to the U.S. for the melted and poured from Brazil, when both countries, the U.S. and Mexico, both import slabs from the U.S. from Brazil, sorry, from Brazil, doesn't make any sense. It's clearly for the volume is maybe not big volume as the volume as a whole in Ternium, but it's a volume important for what Mexico exports to the U.S. So putting a restriction, small as it may be, from Mexico to the U.S., when the U.S. exports that much more to Mexico, it doesn't make any sense. And that's our position, to be honest.
Alex Hacking (Equity Research Analyst)
You're right that compared to all the volume that Mexico sells and our opportunities in the domestic market, it's not that big, but we need to fulfill our customers in the U.S. also. So that's the first part of the question. You asked something about AHMSA. To be honest, we don't know much of AHMSA besides what's in the press that supposedly there's a deadline for the I think it's the fourth of August where AHMSA should go to the bankruptcy process because there was no agreement. Nevertheless, I think it's still a long process, the bankruptcy process. It's not going to be something immediately. I mean, it's not a very easy bankruptcy process.
Timna Tanners (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Got it. Thank you. So I recognize it's more about the principle. That's a really fair point. If you could also touch on any opportunity with Lázaro Cárdenas. And then if I could, a second question. If the price in the U.S. is just starting to stabilize here for September, is that still enough to help the fourth quarter cadence for pricing? Just because I'm trying to think about the timing. And if you could also talk about the magnitude of the margin opportunity with some of the raw materials decreases. Thanks.
Máximo Vedoya (CEO)
Yeah. I think the prices in the fourth quarter, yes, should improve. Should improve, sorry. Because of this increase in the prices that we are starting to see this week and should continue a little bit through this month and the following month. So yes, the magnitude of the increase, it's very difficult to say right now, Timna. I always said that a normal price in the North American region should be between $800-$900, of course, with the volatility we are accustomed to. So I mean, that's our view, but I'm not saying that that is going to be in the fourth quarter yet, but it's going to be increased.
Pablo Brizzio (CFO)
Okay. Hi, Timna. This is Pablo. You asked in relationship to the possibility of the recoverability of the margins entering into the fourth quarter. As we always try to say, always the volatility could be there, but in the long run, we should be achieving a certain level of margins. If you took together the first semester of this year, we are still at the level of 15%. So clearly, we will have a reduction during the third quarter because of all the things that we said. And if the prices that you mentioned, Máximo, confirm are increased and these are reflected together with some reduction in costs that we need to see during the fourth quarter because of the first-in, first-out methodology that we utilize, should recover our margins to a higher level than what we see or what we receive in the third quarter.
Alex Hacking (Equity Research Analyst)
Yes, we have the chance to recover at the full year after all these effects. If we are correct, should position us in a very reasonable level of margins.
Máximo Vedoya (CEO)
Tim, let me put yeah, let me add something more because I don't want to sound with this problem of the U.S. melted and poured. I mean, Mexico, and this is not Ternium. Mexico as a whole exports something like 1.2-1.4 million tons of flat products, which is finishing flat products. Around that, 1 million-1.2 million. Of that, more than in volume or in price, something like half of that comes from not melted and poured. So semi-finished products, slabs that come from different parts, some of them from Brazil. It's not a huge volume, but it's very important for what Mexico exports to the U.S. So it doesn't make any sense to have this restriction in, as I said, the numbers I said before in my remarks.
Timna Tanners (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Got it. Okay. Thanks again.
Pablo Brizzio (CFO)
You're welcome.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Marcio Farid with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Marcio Farid (VP)
Thank you. Good morning, Máximo and Pablo. Thanks for the opportunity. I have a question on the demand side. You obviously mentioned that demand is quite strong, both in the U.S. and in Mexico as well. Shipments for the quarter were relatively weak. My understanding is that that's basically bias holding back purchases on a declining price environment. Just wanted to check if you're already seeing clients coming back and buying since you're already seeing some initial signs of price stabilization and potentially HRC price recovery as well. And secondly, just a follow-up on the taxation risk. I know you've talked a lot about the interdependence between the U.S. and Mexico for the trade flows, and it does feel like the U.S. is a lot more aggressive than Mexico is at the moment, right? But with the U.S. elections just around the corner, what are the potential risks you're assessing?
Alex Hacking (Equity Research Analyst)
There was even suggestion by one of our competitors that USMCA may should end and this kind of thing. But I mean, what are the kind of potential risks you're seeing on a new U.S. administration into next year, please? Thank you.
Máximo Vedoya (CEO)
Thank you, Marcio. The first part of the question, demand, yes, we are seeing a pickup in Mexico. Part of that is also because for external, for different reasons, also we ship a little bit less than what we should have shipped in the second quarter, not only because of the demand, but also because of the storm Alberto. We were two weeks with a lot of problems. Also, the slab shipments from Brazil to Mexico also had problems because of the Brownsville port and some other issues and the problem we have with the blast furnaces. So we are seeing both things. A pickup in our shipments because of this and a pickup of our shipment because people are realizing, the ones that we had stocks, that prices are starting to go up. So both things we are seeing, as you mentioned.
Alex Hacking (Equity Research Analyst)
Regarding U.S., Mexico, and USMCA, I mean, I don't see I mean, my view is going to be the same regardless of who is in the U.S. government. I think Mexico and U.S. relationship, it's a very strong one, and it's both sides. I mean, I don't see I mean, I see the USMCA as an excellent agreement for the three countries, not only for Mexico, for Canada, or for the U.S. The three countries have benefited a lot from the U.S., from the USMCA. I mean, if you put also let me give you some advice, but there's a lot of evidence about this. But if you take from 2019-2023, exports from the U.S. to Mexico increased by 26%. So export of the U.S., and this is only in bienes, in goods, not services, which is much more. 26%.
Mexico also increased exports to the U.S. by 30%, but both numbers are similar. So both countries are benefiting a lot from that. You take the states of the U.S., 33 states in the U.S. have Mexico as one of the top destinations of their exports. I don't know, jobs. There's a lot of evidence and different jobs of the millions of jobs the USMCA has created in the U.S. So I don't see that somebody would think of changing or canceling the USMCA with all the benefits that this is bringing to Mexico and to the U.S. I think there are some things that we can improve, for sure, but others, no. The other issue that you didn't mention it, but it's very mentioned in the press, is the Chinese investment in Mexico as a reason of, I don't know, putting in doubt the USMCA.
But the numbers, again, they are not there. I mean, there are some Chinese companies investing in Mexico, as there are some Chinese investments in the U.S. But if you take the foreign direct investment that China made in Mexico, and not one year, I put the last four years, 2020-2023, it's less than 1% of the FDI of all Mexico. So it's insignificant. Yes, there are some companies coming, but the numbers are very, very small. So there's not an invasion on anything of that. Again, the U.S. is also receiving foreign direct investment from China and much more bigger numbers. But the bottom line here is, I think it's mutual for the three countries. And yes, we have to, the three countries, make tougher laws against some unfair trade, not only steel, but in a lot of other products.
We have to work together to make that possible.
Marcio Farid (VP)
That's great.
Máximo Vedoya (CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Alex Hacking with Citi. Your line is open.
Alex Hacking (Equity Research Analyst)
Yes, thanks, morning. I just wanted to ask quickly on Siderar. When I look at their financial statements for the quarter, they seem to be reporting an operating loss. And that's not including the provision, right? So that would seem to be an underlying operating loss. Is that just FX accounting, or is there something more fundamental that's happened at Siderar? And I guess, how would you see profitability there evolving in the third quarter? And am I even correct that there was an operating loss in the second quarter? Thanks.
Máximo Vedoya (CEO)
Yeah, Alex, you're kind of correct. It's almost zero. I mean, the main issue, and Pablo then elaborate a little bit more, but the main issue is that the second quarter was a quarter where the volumes were very low. Remember, first quarter and second quarter were the lowest level of Ternium Argentina in a long time. We are seeing now an increase in the volumes due to the situation of the Argentine market or the whole economy market. But I don't know, Pablo, if you want to elaborate a little bit more.
Pablo Brizzio (CFO)
No, you're right. Alex, how are you? You are totally right. It was, unfortunately, not the best quarter for Ternium Argentina because not only what Máximo explained, we also had some cost increase due to the first-in, first-out methodology that impacted all together in the same quarter. Again, as we discussed before, at the very end, if we then sum up the fourth quarter for the years, we should see a different result. We are expecting to see higher volumes during the coming quarters. We should see also some reduction in cost in the coming quarter. So the situation that you clearly saw during the second quarter should be reversed during the third and the fourth quarter.
Alex Hacking (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay, thanks. That's clear. It just caught my eye because you know.
Máximo Vedoya (CEO)
[crosstalk]
Marcio Farid (VP)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Leo Correa with BTG Pactual. Your line is open.
Leo Correa (Associate Partner Equity Research Basic Material)
[Foreign Language]
Speaker 11
Hello, good morning, everyone. Thanks. Yeah, so Pablo, quick one. More details here, but hopefully you can help a bit. So first off, for you, Pablo, the dividend situation, right? I mean, Ternium has been consistently increasing the dividend over the past year. We're now, I mean, you guys still have a bit of a high CapEx program going forward, given the projects in Mexico, and this somewhat messy situation with CSN and this litigation, which we don't know exactly how this ends. Of course, you guys have great arguments, but you never know how to predict these things. And I can imagine there's a high level of uncertainty, and as a consequence, you're increasing your provision, right? So just wanted to double-check if there's any risks that you guys reevaluate the dividend going forward.
Alex Hacking (Equity Research Analyst)
I know this is a board decision, but anyway, just given how conservative you guys are on balance sheet management, I just wanted to double-check on that. Second point, we've been talking a lot about steel prices over this call. Clearly, the situation in China is the key culprit. I'm not sure anything changes anytime soon. Looking at slab prices specifically, right, I mean, the price has obviously collapsed close to $500. Just curious to hear you on how does CSA, how does Ternium Brazil's slab plant, how can it operate in this environment? I mean, what type of economics are you generating? Is the plant break even at these levels? Just wanted to hear you a bit more on that. Thank you. Those are the two questions.
Pablo Brizzio (CFO)
Hi, Leo. How are you, Pablo here, let me start with the first question regarding dividend.
Alex Hacking (Equity Research Analyst)
We see no reason to change what we have been doing in relationship to dividends. Let me expand a little bit on that. You mentioned a couple of things in your question. We continue to generate a very positive Free Cash Flow that was reflected in the numbers during this quarter and this semester. Also, even though we pay the record dividend during this first semester, the reduction in the total cash position of the company was very much not affected. A very minor change in the level of Net Cash that the company continues to have. The CapEx plan that we have is online, on track, so nothing that could change there because that was something that was expected before and that we will continue to do. Shouldn't be anything in relationship to that.
And then what we have been discussing on the recoverability of margins and results together with the pricing and increased volumes in the coming quarters, again, put us in the position to be in what we said at the very beginning. We see no reason to change what we have been doing up to now with dividend payments. Máximo, you can take the second one.
Máximo Vedoya (CEO)
Yeah. Leo, hello, how are you? Yeah, the situation of prices, especially slabs. First of all, remember, Ternium is a net buyer of slabs. Ternium plus Usiminas is even greater. So it's not a bad thing, the prices of slabs. Ternium Brazil sends, I mean, sells, if you can say this, everything to our own companies, either Usiminas or either Ternium Mexico or either Ternium Argentina. So we are not seeing a problem in the production of Ternium Brazil. As you know, Ternium Brazil is very efficient, so it can work at this level of prices. But again, for Ternium as a whole, we are a net buyer of slabs.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Rodolfo Angele. Your line is open.
Rodolfo Angele (Analyst)
Hi. Thanks, everyone. Just wanted to confirm that the overall message from the call in terms of outlook was that things are bottoming, prices should be getting better in North America. But in the guidance and the release, you mentioned it'll be that weaker into the next quarter. So I know there's a bit of a time indifference, but I just wonder if you could comment on this with a bit more details. That's all. Thank you.
Máximo Vedoya (CEO)
Well, yeah, I start and then Pablo. But yes, the message, Rodolfo, you are right. Next quarter, the outlook we gave for the next quarter is the one that you just recalled. Prices should decrease, especially in Mexico, because of the contract prices. Not the spot prices, but the contract prices, the lag in the contract prices. So our price overall, we'll see probably an increase in spot prices from the ones we have in June, sorry, not June and July. But overall, in the quarter, prices because of the industrial prices are going to be down. Volume in Mexico a little bit higher, and then an increase in volume from Argentina and a little bit from Brazil. Overall, the outlook is a decrease in the EBITDA regarding the second quarter. And we are seeing that this is the bottom and an increase following this bottom.
Pablo Brizzio (CFO)
Yeah, let me add, also just what Máximo said, that we will also be continuing to see a certain level of cost that will be reflecting the purchase slabs and the purchase raw material that we did in the past. So it's still reflecting higher prices than what we are seeing today. That's why when we mentioned that the fourth quarter should start to reflect a better scenario for Ternium, reflecting not only the price increases that we are seeing right now, but also the reduction in cost that we are also seeing. It was mentioned also over here that I don't know if it's going down. Coal prices are going down. So prices are also reducing from material. We will not see that yet fully during the third quarter. This is more for the fourth quarter and year-end.
Alex Hacking (Equity Research Analyst)
That's why we always like to look at a longer period than a quarter because usually you could have the lag and the timing difference on the cost and the prices, and this could lead to that. But in general, yeah, we are clearly seeing a bottom during the third quarter and a recovery in the fourth and entering into next year.
Operator (participant)
There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to the CEO.
Máximo Vedoya (CEO)
Thank you. Thank you to all. We appreciate your participation on this call and all the questions you asked. We welcome any feedback you may have. Thank you again and have a nice day. Bye-bye.
Operator (participant)
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.