Ternium - Earnings Call - Q4 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Ternium Fourth Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply "press star, followed by the number one" on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, "press star one again". Thank you. At this time, I will turn the call over to Mr. Martí. Please proceed.

Sebastián Martí (Global IR and Compliance Senior Director)

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. My name is Sebastián Martí, and I am Ternium's Global IR and Compliance Senior Director. Yesterday, Ternium released its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024. This call is meant to provide additional context to that presentation. I'm joined today by Máximo Vedoya, Ternium's Chief Executive Officer, and Pablo Brizzio, Ternium's Chief Financial Officer, who will discuss the company's business environment and performance. After our prepared remarks, we'll open up the floor to any questions. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this conference call contains forward-looking information.

That actual results may vary from those expressed or implied. Factors that could affect results are contained in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and on page two in today's webcast presentation.

You will also find any reference to non-IFRS financial measures reconciled to the most directly comparable IFRS measures in the press release issued yesterday. With that, I turn the call over to Mr. Vedoya.

Máximo Vedoya (CEO)

Thank you, Sebastián. Good morning, and thanks, everybody, for joining us today. Ternium reported shipments of 16 million tons for 2024, with adjusted EBITDA of $2 billion on a 12% margin. In a challenging year for the steel industry, our operation generated $2 billion in cash. The company's net cash position remains strong at $1.6 billion by the end of December, even though CapEx was close to $2 billion in the year, and we paid dividends of more than $600 million. During the quarter, we made significant progress on our downstream expansion project in Mexico. The pickling line at Pesquería, along with the finishing center, started operations and are steadily advancing in the ramp-up process.

We currently have two remaining lines under construction for the completion of this project: a cold-rolling mill whose planned start-up has been advanced to December of 2025, and a hot-dip galvanized line, which will also commence operation by the end of the year. Another positive development of the fourth quarter is that the wind farm in Argentina began generating electricity in December. All of the 22 wind turbines have already been installed. The wind farm is expected to deliver approximately 480 gigawatt-hours per year, replacing the majority of our purchase of third-party electricity in the country. This initiative provides substantial economic benefits and assists the company in achieving its decarbonization goals. I would like now to address the latest developments in international trade. A surge in U.S. trade actions during the last few weeks has been creating substantial uncertainty in the global market.

Mexico, together with Canada, are among the countries that have been singled out by the recently announced trade measures. In addition, steel has been a specific target, as the U.S. announced it will revoke all country-specific exceptions to the 25% tariff on steel import under Section 232. I'm a strong believer in the advantage of the USMCA. There is a deeply complementary relationship among USMCA members, which has led to increased trade, investment, and job creation within the North American region. The USMCA has played a critical role in enhancing the competitiveness of the whole area. Therefore, we believe that the value chains among these nations will continue to thrive. Further deepening commercial integration among the three countries is the way to go, and it will be beneficial for all of them.

Ternium is well equipped to navigate any potential trade scenarios due to its ability to adapt its structure in response to changes in the landscape. As always, we will continue our effort to enhance the efficiency of our operations to reduce costs. We are ready to compete effectively in today's uncertain environment. Now, let's review our main steel markets. In Mexico, shipments in the fourth quarter decreased due to a weaker-than-expected commercial market. The industrial market in Mexico is showing steady activity levels, following an increase of 6% in auto industry's production in 2024. On the other hand, weak government infrastructure investment and uncertainties surrounding trade actions are affecting volumes in the commercial market. This will probably continue to happen until a definitive understanding of the final trade measures is achieved. Moving now to Brazil, 2024 was a positive year, with flat-steel apparent consumption increasing a healthy 10%.

Vehicle production grew strongly as well, with a 10% increase compared to 2023. 2024 saw significant operational improvements in Usiminas, resulting from investments made in recent years, particularly the relining of Blast Furnace number 3. As a result, Usiminas produced 3.2 million tons of crude steel, among the highest volume levels of the last 10 years. On the other hand, imports of flat steel exceeded 3 million tons in 2024, setting a new record. China remains a destabilizing factor in the international steel market. The contraction of steel consumption in its domestic market in recent years has led to a disproportionate increase in exports under unfair trade conditions. Imports from China have significantly disrupted the Brazilian market, accounting for approximately 80% of flat steel imports. The import-quota system implemented last year did not achieve its goal.

We look forward to more effective trade measures from the Brazilian government, especially as other countries strengthen their defense against unfair trade, potentially causing a diversion of China's export to other markets. On a different subject, we are very proud to share that last week, the Roberto Roca Technical School in Santa Cruz, located near Ternium Brazil facility, began its first classes. This is the second technical school that Ternium built and operates, with the first one active since near our Pesquería facility in Monterrey, Mexico. The school will provide high-quality technical education to its initial cohort of 192 students in the community and will accommodate close to 600 students over the next three years. All students at the Roberto Roca Technical School network receive scholarships based on their family financial needs, ensuring equal access to education.

This initiative reflects Ternium's dedication to supporting the development of the communities near its production site and creating transformative opportunities for their youth. Turning now to Argentina, in 2024, shipments experienced a year-over-year decline of approximately 20%. This reduction was primarily due to the implementation of macroeconomic measures by the Argentine government, which aimed to address substantial economic imbalance. Although Argentina's steel demand has been recovering throughout 2024, it's starting from a low base and has yet to return to historic sales volumes.

The authorities in Argentina are advancing the transformation of the local economy through a process of deregulation, reducing public spending and taxes, and opening up trade. Although we welcome this transformation, uneven progress in this area could increase the risk of higher imports of unfair trade products in the steel value chain. I would like to close my prepared comments with a few thoughts. U.S. Trade measures against imports are currently fluid. During the first half of 2025, it is likely that we will continue to navigate this uncertain scenario in the North American region. We trust that at the conclusion of the negotiations, rational decision-making will prevail, resulting in a region experiencing significant growth and improved defense against unfair trade practice.

In the same line, the Plan Mexico recently announced by the Mexican government aims to address issues related to regional integration with a focus on industrializing for import substitution. The plan outlines strategies to attract investment and increase the local and regional content of manufactured goods throughout nearshoring, infrastructure development, and support for MSEs. In this context, our expansion projects in Mexico are crucial for strengthening Ternium's integration into the North American market. As rules of origin regarding melted and poured steel products are expected to become stricter.

In Brazil, Usiminas's manufacturing facility achieved significant efficiency improvements in 2024, a trend we expect will continue in 2025 as operations are further streamlined. Finally, given the improvements in macroeconomic conditions in Argentina, I expect our shipments will continue recovering throughout this year. This concludes my remarks. Pablo, please proceed with the review of Ternium's performance in the fourth quarter.

Pablo Brizzio (CFO)

Thanks, Máximo. Good morning to everybody, and thanks for being with us today. Let's turn to the webcast presentation for a detailed look at our operations and financial results. If we begin on page three, we see that adjusted EBITDA decreased this quarter. The key factors behind these results include lower realized prices in our main markets and a reduction in shipments. These were partially offset by a decrease in steel costs per ton.

As we look ahead to the third quarter of this year, 2025, we anticipate a sequential increase in Adjusted EBITDA, supported by a margin improvement and small increase in volumes. Moving to the next slide, net income for the fourth quarter was $333 million. The company recognized a $404 million provisional reversal for ongoing litigations related to the 2012 acquisition of stake in Usiminas. The main difference between net income in the fourth quarter and the third quarter was a decline in operating income, as we have already seen, along with a negative effect of changes in foreign exchange results. On the other hand, we record lower income tax charges and the provision mentioned provisional reversal. Regarding changes in foreign exchange results, it's important to point out the impact of the Brazilian real's 12% depreciation against the US dollar during the fourth quarter on Usiminas's US dollar-denominated financial debt.

This is because Usiminas uses the real as a functional currency, not the US dollar. Now, let's review the performance of our steel segments on page five. In this quarter, steel shipments across all of Ternium's key markets declined, primarily due to a typical seasonal reduction in demand by the end of the year. Additionally, the commercial market in Mexico experienced a downturn, as Máximo already explained. Looking ahead, we expect some increase in shipments in Brazil during the fourth quarter, excuse me, during the next quarter of the year, the first quarter of 2025, while shipments in Mexico and Argentina are expected to remain stable. In the following page, the steel segment net sales declined sequentially by 14% in the fourth quarter. In addition to lower shipments, this decrease was driven by a reduction in realized steel prices across all markets.

The decline in prices was partially offset by a reduction in cost per ton, which, however, was not enough to avoid a decrease in margins. It's worth noting that the pace of cost reduction in our books is slower than the decline in raw materials and slab prices in the market, as the company is consuming high-priced inventories acquired in earlier periods. Next, let's turn to slide seven for the overview of our mining segment performance. Mining shipments remained stable during the quarter, but year-over-year, they were around 9% in the fourth quarter, mainly due to lower production levels both in Mexico and in Brazil. On the other hand, margins improved, mainly driven by lower costs. Let's move on to the next slide to review our cash flow performance.

Ternium reported cash flow from operations in the fourth quarter, supported by a decrease in working capital, mainly driven by lower trade receivables. Capex increased as we advanced the expansion project in Pesquería and finished the wind farm in Argentina. Additionally, we paid interim dividends in November. Even though we have these significant cash developments in the fourth quarter, our financial position remained strong, with $1.6 million net cash at the end of December, helped by a $2 million increase in the fair value of financial instruments. Let's now shift our focus to page nine to assess our full-year performance. EBITDA declined in the last two years, primarily due to the consolidation of Usiminas and the downward pressure of declining steel prices. These factors have affected our results and reflected in net income.

The decline also incorporates the net provision I mentioned earlier, together with negative deferred tax results and the impact of the significant depreciation of the Brazilian real during the year on Usiminas's foreign exchange results. Ternium's cash from operations was solid in 2024, allowing us to finance the increased level of CapEx in the year. Looking ahead, we expect CapEx to peak in 2025, reaching around $2.5 billion. Important to mention, the board of directors put forward a proposal for an annual dividend of $2.70 per ADS. This represents a dividend yield of approximately 9%. We have already distributed an interim dividend of $0.90 in November, and subject to shareholders' approval, the remaining $1.80 will be paid out in May. All right, this concludes our prepared remarks. We are now ready to take your questions. Operator, please begin the Q&A session.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. If you have dialed in and would like to ask a question, please "press star one" on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply" press star one" again. If you are called upon to ask your question and are listening via loudspeaker on your device, please pick up your handset and ensure that your phone is not on mute when asking your question. Again, "press star one" to join the queue. And our first question comes from Carlos de Alba with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Carlos De Alba (Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, good morning, everyone. Thank you very much. So the first question is, I'm going to try to press a little bit on the outlook for the first quarter. I know it's a lot of uncertainty out there, but how did you define a slight improvement? There is a wide range of consensus forecasts, and so it would really help if you can provide a little bit more details as to how you see the quarter evolving. And then I wanted to also ask an update on the different ramp-ups and the electric arc furnace project in Pesquería. You can maybe be a little bit, when do you expect the ramp-up of the finishing lines to be completed? And when do you expect the cold and the hot-dip galvanizing new lines to be running at close to full capacity or full capacity if they start in December of this year? Thank you very much.

Máximo Vedoya (CEO)

Thank you, Carlos. I will start with the second, which is much more direct, and then try to answer the first one. Ramp-up of Pesquería. So in the finishing lines or in the tandems, we have four projects, let's put it that way. The pickling line and the finishing lines are already producing, are a little bit ahead of what was the plan, and I guess for the next two or three months, they will be at full capacity, I would put it. Then we have the galvanized line, which was supposed or is supposed to start in December. We are not seeing any delay in the ramp-up curve that starts in December of this year. I mean, all the equipment is there in Pesquería, and we have all the people working in the construction and putting those equipment.

In the cold-roll facility in the PLTC M2, we were expected to start in February, March of 2026, but we are seeing some improvements and some better advance in the construction of the equipment and the facility. So we are expected to start in December of this year. So we are advancing the ramp-up curve a couple of months. And so on those projects, we don't see any problem, and we're going forward at full speed. The other one is the steel shop and the reduction unit that is supposed to start in mid-2026. We are still having that date, but as you know, in that facility, we don't have yet all the contracts finalized. I mean, we are finalizing in this quarter some of the contracts for equipment and, more important, most of the contracts for the construction, although the construction is going through.

So by the end of next quarter, we will probably have an exact idea of when we will start, but we are still holding the timeline for mid-2026.

Carlos De Alba (Equity Research Analyst)

And just maybe to clarify, when would you expect the coil and the hot-dip galvanized to be reaching full capacity?

Máximo Vedoya (CEO)

The ramp-up curve in these projects is usually between nine months and one year, but they are steadily starting producing from day one. And for example, in the case of the cold-roll, to get the 120 or 130 thousand tons a month would get between nine and one year. That's what we have in our plans. We will try harder to get that closer to December of 2025, but for now, between nine and twelve months. I hope that answers the question, or this is the second question. So outlook, Pablo?

Pablo Brizzio (CFO)

Okay. Take that. Carlos, as we said, we are expecting to see a small increase in the EBITDA generation for the first quarter of the year. And this is the sum-up of three different things that will happen during the quarter. First, volumes, as we have described, and Máximo also described during the opening remarks, we are expected to see a steady level of shipments in the different markets where we are. This is coupled with the issues that Máximo mentioned and also some seasonality. So we are expecting to sustain a level of shipments during the first quarter. That's the first point. The second point is that though prices are moving, we see some decline in the average price of the company due to the issue that you know very well, which is that prices are reset every quarter. So all changes in prices are not reflected immediately.

The most important part is that during the first quarter, we will see a decline in cost. Differently from what we saw during the fourth quarter, this decline in cost will be higher than what we are expecting to see of the declining prices. We are expecting to see a better margin during the first quarter. We continue or we will continue to see the same situation that we saw during the fourth quarter of the year, which is that there is a delay in reflecting the prices throughout our cost structure due to the FIFO methodology that we utilize. We are expecting to continue seeing the evolution of the cost reduction throughout the semester and having a better picture in the second quarter of this year in that respect.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Caio Ribeiro of Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Caio Ribeiro (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Yes, good morning. Thank you for the opportunity. So my first question on your stake in Usiminas, right? Later this year, you have the option to purchase a Nippon Steel stake within the control block, and Nippon Steel has the option to sell that stake to Ternium. So my question is, is adding to your stake in the company something that you're contemplating right now? And is there any color that you can share on how both sides see this particular transaction? And then secondly, still on Usiminas, with the blast furnace revamp completed, what are the next priorities that you see for the company? Do you see a potential to greenlight the Capex in the mining division this year or next? And if so, how would the company fund that Capex? Thank you.

Máximo Vedoya (CEO)

Thank you, Caio, for the two questions. Regarding the first one, I mean, the only thing that happened, as you said, in July is that both Nippon Steel and Ternium, we have the options to sell or buy, and they become exercisable. I mean, we can exercise those from July. That's the only thing that changed in Usiminas. I clearly cannot speak of what Nippon is thinking of this, but from our side, I can say that, as you saw in the results, I am very pleased with how Usiminas' and our partnership with Nippon Steel are performing today. So for now, we will keep working with the goal of bringing Usiminas to the highest potential. Regarding the priorities in Usiminas, clearly the Capex in mining is one of the things that we are working.

As I said in some other calls, we have to take the decision by the end of this year or the beginning of next year, but in the meantime, we are working very hard to get to the point of having to make the decision with most of the things done so that we don't have any delays if we go through that project. The other priorities of Usiminas' are clearly improving the performance of Ipatinga's mill. That's clearly a priority of the management. There are some investments that we have to do and that we are doing in order to decrease cost and increase productivity and the second is the commercial side where we have all the challenges with the imports for China and how we approach customers and give more value to customers so those are the priorities that we are working in Usiminas right now.

I hope it answered the question, Caio.

Caio Ribeiro (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Yes, absolutely. That's very clear. Thank you, Máximo.

Máximo Vedoya (CEO)

You're welcome.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Alejandro de Micheles with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Alejandro Demichelis (Managing Director)

Yes, good morning, gentlemen. Thank you very much for taking my questions. A couple of questions, please. The first one is, Máximo, you talk about Ternium being prepared to navigate the situation with the tariffs and so on. Would that also include, say, putting on hold some of your new investments, whether it's in Mexico or any of the rest of the regions? That's the first question. And then the second question is, in the case of Argentina, you talk about the situation about volumes, recovery, and so on. Could you please talk also about the situation of the scrap exports and how that could impact also your cost base over there?

Máximo Vedoya (CEO)

Yeah, the second one, the scrap export is not very significant for us. As you remember, I mean, in Argentina, we don't use much scrap. It's different than in Mexico. And so the amount of scrap we bought from the market every month is around 8,000 tons. It's clearly not an issue, the scrap. Probably it's an issue for other steel companies in Argentina that have a much more scrap basis in their inputs. But remember, us in Argentina and all. Regarding the call of new investment, no, we are not thinking of stopping or postponing any investment. As I said, the PLTCM, the cold-rolling mill, and the galvanized are almost completed. I mean, by the end of the year, they're going to be completed.

If you see what is happening in the Mexican market, the Mexican market has a huge amount of imports from third countries, which we are not able to really attack, let's put it, or substitute. That's better, substitute, because we don't have enough capacity, probably, to do so in the technical issues. We are going forward, and it's very rational to continue. The other one is the steel shop. The steel shop, again, probably in all this that is happening, as you mentioned, in this uncertainty in the North American market, one thing that sure is going to happen is that the rule of origin is going to be strengthened even more. Melted and poured requirements are going to, we are going to need the melted and poured. For that, I think that the Pesquería project strengthens the position of Ternium.

I hope, Alejandro, it's clear.

Alejandro Demichelis (Managing Director)

Yeah, no, it is very clear. And if I can follow up a little bit on that. So on the discussions that you're having with your main customers, particularly in the automotive industry for the rest of the year, how are they indicating volumes, say, between now and the end of the year then?

Máximo Vedoya (CEO)

They don't have any changes in the volumes. Remember, the auto industry in Mexico ended up a year with growth, and they are not indicating any changes. What they are doing is clearly working on changing some of the imports they have from third countries. So we are working with them to start changing or making running changes of imports they have from Asia mainly.

Alejandro Demichelis (Managing Director)

Thank you.

Máximo Vedoya (CEO)

Thank you, Alejandro.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Timna Tanners (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Yeah, hey, good morning. Máximo, I wanted to pick your brain really on the theme, I feel like, of the introductory remarks was really that China continues to be a big problem for the three main regions where you operate. So do you have any level of optimism that those countries, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, can implement enough barriers or will be interested in doing so to help prevent some of those problems of imports that you've been talking about any time soon?

Máximo Vedoya (CEO)

Yes, I am optimistic in different levels depending on the country. I mean, let me put the perspective of China a little bit, and then I talk specifically of what the three countries are doing. China or the steel industry in China, but it's not only applied to the steel industry. It applies to a lot of industries. So China has been decreasing consumption for the last three years, apparent consumption in the country. So it reduced, I think, in average, 4% each year for the last three years. But on the contrary, production has been the same. So this is a huge rebalance of the Chinese steel industry. Exports from China and steel increased in 2024 by 25%. That's an enormous amount of steel. And then if you see the balance of what is happening in the steel industry in China, well, most of the companies are burning money.

So it's not a sustainable situation. Having said that, they are still exporting and doing all these things that have no sense. In our countries, I think Mexico is the one that's ahead of this. Clearly, they understand very well what is going on in China. They understand the importance of defending the industry against unfair trade, and they are working in this sense. So they are putting the dumping cases. They are putting some tariffs. And I think that they are starting to work in other issues that are fighting for shipments that are happening in Mexico, in the U.S., in Canada. So China is looking for ways to evade this tariff, and I think Mexico has a very clear path how to work. In the Middle East, Brazil, they made measures of this quota, but clearly this quota, as I said, is not working.

So the dumping cases have been presented, and I think the government, I mean, I'm quite positive that the government is going to go through these dumping cases, which will be an effective barrier to unfair trade. Argentina, I think, is the one that is a little bit behind all this. Sorry, because Argentina is still trying to stabilize the macroeconomy. But again, I think that some part of this year, they're going to start realizing that if we want to sustain an industry, we have to fight against unfair trade. That's simply the reason. So I'm optimistic that in some part of this year, they're going to realize this, and we are going to work together doing this. Tim, I hope I understand. I answered part of your question.

Timna Tanners (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Yes, that was helpful. Thanks, Máximo. So I wanted to also put you on the spot regarding US-Mexico trade policy on steel. So in the past, we've also talked about how any tariff on Mexican steel could be positive for Ternium because any retaliatory tariff would keep because the U.S. is a net importer of steel. So if there were a retaliatory tariff, then that steel would stay in Mexico, and you could fill the gaps and take share right from imports. But on the other hand, now that those tariffs look to be applied to the downstream side, some downstream customers could be affected, and of course, you already addressed auto. So I mean, any updated thoughts on retaliation or if the tariffs are in place as it is? Is it more negative just because of your customer impact than the positive of no longer receiving U.S. imports?

Thanks again.

Máximo Vedoya (CEO)

Thank you, Tim. It's a very uncertain question to answer because clearly, I don't know where this is going to end. What I can tell you is, first of all, Ternium, as of today, we don't export significant volume to the U.S. So 4% of our flat rolled products goes to the U.S. It's not a very significant amount. And as you said, in the relationship, steel relationship between Mexico and the U.S., Mexico has a huge steel trade deficit. I mean, I think that this is the only country. Mexico is the only country where the U.S steel industry has a surplus, and a surplus that is very big compared to between exports and imports.

So I mean, as I said, the challenge that both the U.S. and Mexico are facing today is not the trade between these two countries, but it's the trade we have in Mexico that they have in the U.S. with all these other countries. So at the end, I think that the U.S. and Mexico are going to reach a reasonable agreement in this situation. I'm not seeing a scenario where it goes further, as you were telling, of tariffs on both sides because, again, it should be a reasonable agreement given the situation. But again, it's difficult to speculate on all these negotiations that are going through between the U.S. and Mexico today.

Timna Tanners (Managing Director of Equity Research)

No, we appreciate that. Thank you, Máximo. Sorry to put you on the spot.

Máximo Vedoya (CEO)

No, no, it's not on the spot, but I mean, it's negotiations that are happening right now. And again, when you see the numbers, when you see the, especially in steel, it's very easy to reach an agreement. It shouldn't go further than reaching an agreement, Tim. And I think that's the best for all outcomes from the U.S., from Mexico, from the government.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Alfonso Salazar, Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Alfonso Salazar (Director)

Yes, thank you. Máximo, you mentioned in your presentation that we hope that rational decision-making will prevail. I think we all agree with you on that. Now, the question that I have is regarding how is the U.S. planning to balance the supply and demand without the imports in the U.S.? I mean, it doesn't look to me that something that would be easy to do. Is there appetite to invest in more capacity given that there is a global overcapacity? What would be the implications for end users of steel, also for the global scrap markets in North America and globally if there is more need of scrap in the U.S.? I mean, it seems that it's going to have lots of ramifications that eventually will be severe.

And we can end in a world in which basically we have this bifurcation of trade with China, selling more to other countries and other countries and selling more steel. And then you have a sanctuary not in North America anymore, but in all the U.S. But that doesn't seem to be a situation that could stay for long. So any color that you can provide, especially in how do you envision a market that is properly supplied without imports in the U.S.? Thank you. And the implications of the scrap markets as well.

Máximo Vedoya (CEO)

Yeah, Alfonso, thank you very much. It's a very good question. I don't know if I have the answer to that. I think it's a question for other companies. But I mean, but you're right about, I mean, I don't think that the outcome of all these negotiations could be that what you are saying. But as I said in the initial remarks, I don't know against the rest of the world, and I'm not capable of saying what would be the relationship between the U.S. and China or Asia or Europe. But I am a strong believer in the advantage of the USMCA. If you see the story of the USMCA, which is not a very long story, the trade among the members of the three countries grew significantly over the last year in every way.

I mean, from Mexico to the U.S., but the U.S. to Mexico also, almost in the same amount. And the USMCA played a role in enhancing the competitiveness of the area. I mean, it's very reasonable to think of the USMCA as a way of strengthening the supply chain there to get competitiveness for fighting or for not fighting, but defending or competing with other regions like China. So for me, again, I think that at the end, it will prevail because I think the USMCA is beneficial for the three countries. On the other side, I see how Mexico is reacting.

Before all this trade, even before all this trade, if you see the Mexico plan, the Plan México that President Sheinbaum announced, I think, at the beginning of the year, it's very focused on what we have been saying for a long time in how we must focus on industrializing, import substitution for Asia, strengthening North America's supply chain. I mean, if you hear what Mexico is doing, the plan that Mexico has, it's also going the same way. So again, I am optimistic that reason will prevail. I can tell you that, Alfonso.

Alfonso Salazar (Director)

Yeah. Thank you. Just any comment on the global scrap trade and how you see that changing or unfolding given what we know about the tariffs and this idea to produce more in the U.S. in particular?

Máximo Vedoya (CEO)

I think to produce more in the U.S., it's a long time. So at least any new capacity will be three, four, five years to come in, except for what we are already seeing in the U.S. So I don't think there's going to be a lot of change. Of course, scrap, it's going to be, but we know this. I mean, it's going to be a market where more people are going to use scrap because we are changing the route from blast furnace to electric arc. But this is taking a long way. So I don't foresee any major changes in the next two years.

Alfonso Salazar (Director)

Excellent. Thank you so much, Máximo.

Operator (participant)

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Ternium CEO for closing remarks.

Máximo Vedoya (CEO)

Okay. Thank you very much all for participating. Very good questions. Always, your feedback is much appreciated if you have any. Have a good day, and we'll see how we talk in the next three months. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.