Texas Roadhouse - Q4 2023
February 15, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good evening, and welcome to the Texas Roadhouse fourth quarter earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded. All participants are now in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. At that time, if you'd like to ask a question, please press Star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. Should anyone need assistance at any time during the conference, please press Star zero and an operator will assist you. I would now like to introduce Michael Bailen, Head of Investor Relations for Texas Roadhouse. You may begin your conference.
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Thank you, Rob, and good evening. By now, you should have access to our earnings release for the fourth quarter ended December 26, 2023. It may also be found on our website at texasroadhouse.com in the Investor section. I would like to remind everyone that part of our discussion today will include forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, and therefore, undue reliance should not be placed upon them. We refer all of you to our earnings release in our recent filings with the SEC. These documents provide a more detailed discussion of the relevant factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements. In addition, we may refer to non-GAAP measures. If applicable, reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures to the GAAP information can be found in our earnings release.
On the call with me today is Jerry Morgan, Chief Executive Officer of Texas Roadhouse, and Chris Monroe, our Chief Financial Officer. Following the prepared remarks, we will be available to answer your questions. In order to accommodate everyone that would like to ask a question, we kindly ask analysts to please limit yourself to one question. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Jerry.
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Thanks, Michael, and good evening, everyone. 2023 was another great year for Texas Roadhouse. We generated over $4.6 billion in revenue and increased average unit volumes to over 7.6 million at Texas Roadhouse. And for the full year, comp sales grew over 10%, with more than half of that increase coming from higher guest traffic. Along with this top-line growth, we also reported double-digit increases in restaurant margin dollars, income from operations, and earnings per share for full year 2023. Our results clearly reflect the commitment our managing partners have in taking care of their guests and their communities. There are no better examples of this passion than our Veterans Day celebration and our national fundraiser to benefit tinnitus research. On Veterans Day, we honored nearly 700,000 veterans by providing a free meal or voucher for a future meal.
Just over a week ago, we raised over $925,000 for the American Tinnitus Association in honor of our late founder, Kent Taylor. These are just two of the many ways our operators give back to their local communities. 2023 was a record year for system-wide new store openings. For the full year, we opened 30 company restaurants across all brands, and our franchise partners opened 15 restaurants, including our first two franchised Jaggers. For 2024, we continue to expect to open approximately 30 company-owned restaurants across the three brands. Our expectation is that this year's openings will be more evenly distributed throughout the year as compared to last year, when 50% of our openings occurred in the last four months. Additionally, we expect our franchise partners will open as many as 14 international and domestic locations, including four Jaggers.
In 2024, we will also maintain our emphasis on operational efficiencies and improving the guest and employee experience by focusing on technology investments. Based on positive feedback from our operators, we're accelerating the number of digital kitchen conversions to be completed this year. We now expect to convert approximately 200 existing Texas Roadhouses to a digital kitchen in 2024, and we have also standardized this equipment for new openings at all three brands. We are also focused on increasing guest awareness of our digital platform, which is the most efficient way for our guests to put their names on the wait list, to dine in our restaurants, and to place their to-go orders. In closing, we are extremely excited about the direction of our business and our three brands.
There are so many things to be proud of, but at the same time, we still have many opportunities to continue building our business going forward. Now, Chris will provide some thoughts.
Chris Monroe (CFO)
Thanks, Jerry. 2023 was certainly an impressive year. Our restaurants are the busiest they've ever been, but our operators are focused on serving even more guests on every shift. Of course, we expect to continue to face inflationary pressures in 2024, albeit at a lower rate than we have experienced the last several years. Cattle supply will continue to be a challenge in 2024. However, we now expect the majority of the financial impact of this tightening supply to be in the back half of 2024. As such, we are updating our full year 2024 commodity inflation guidance to approximately 5% from between 5% and 6%. On the labor side, our guidance for wage and other labor inflation remains unchanged at between 4% and 5%.
To help offset the impact of inflationary pressures, we will be implementing a 2.2% menu price increase at the beginning of our second quarter. As we typically do, we partnered with our operators to determine the appropriate amount of pricing for each of our restaurants. This process includes looking at traffic trends, state mandated wage increases, and local labor trends, as well as comparing our prices to those of other restaurants in their specific community. This level of detail and operator involvement provides us with the confidence that we are taking the right level of pricing without sacrificing our value proposition. As Jerry mentioned, we opened 30 company-owned restaurants in 2023, which included 22 Texas Roadhouses, five Bubba's 33s, and three Jaggers. While sales volumes at new Texas Roadhouse restaurants increased, so did the average investment cost in 2023.
Part of this was the inflationary pressure on building costs that the industry faced in 2023, but it was also due to our strategic investment in building a larger prototype to be able to serve even more guests. The addition of dedicated to-go areas and more back-of-house space needed to serve higher guest volumes has increased the size of the current prototype by approximately 10% from our pre-COVID prototype. Returns on investment for our portfolio of new restaurants continue to exceed both our cost of capital and our targeted mid-teen IRR. Before we fully shift our attention to 2024, it's important to recognize the financial accomplishments we had in 2023. We ended the year with $104 million in cash and generated $565 million of cash flow from operations.
With this cash flow, we self-funded $347 million of capital expenditures, as well as the $39 million acquisition of eight franchise restaurants. We also returned over $147 million to our shareholders in the form of dividends, completed $50 million of share repurchases, and repaid the final $50 million of bank debt that we borrowed at the onset of COVID. In 2024 and beyond, we will continue to make meaningful capital investments in existing restaurants as well as new restaurant development. At this time, our capital expenditure guidance for 2024 remains unchanged at between $340 million and $350 million. As always, investments will be evaluated to ensure we continue to put our capital to work where we create the greatest shareholder value.
Overall, our shareholders were rewarded in fiscal year 2023 with EPS growth of 14.3% and a dividend yield of 2.1%. This total return of 16.4% is consistent with our average return over the past 10 years. With a disciplined approach to capital allocation and the excellent results we expect our operators to continue generating, we are confident that we can continue to reward our investors with strong returns for years to come. And now Michael will walk us through the quarter results and provide additional 2024 guidance.
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Thanks, Chris. For the fourth quarter of 2023, we reported revenue growth of 15.3%, driven by a 9.3% increase in average unit volume and 6.1% store week growth. We also reported a restaurant margin dollar increase of 21.4% to $177 million and a diluted earnings per share increase of 21.3% to $1.08. Average weekly sales in the fourth quarter were over $141,000, with to-go representing approximately $18,000 or 12.6% of these total weekly sales. At this time, to-go has already become, on average, a $1 million business per restaurant, with additional room for growth.
Comparable sales increased 9.9% in the fourth quarter, driven by 5.1% traffic growth and a 4.8% increase in average check. By month, comparable sales grew 9.2% in both October and November and 11.1% in December. And while weather has negatively impacted our year-to-date 2024 sales, comparable sales are still up 6.8%, including 3% traffic growth for the first 50 days of the year, with our restaurants averaging sales of approximately $155,000 per week during that time frame. In the fourth quarter, restaurant margin dollars per store week increased to over $21,600, and restaurant margin as a percentage of total sales increased 75 basis points year-over-year to 15.3%.
Food and beverage costs as a percentage of total sales were 34.2% for the fourth quarter. The 88 basis point year-over-year improvement was driven by the benefit of a 4.8% check increase, offsetting the 3.2% commodity inflation for the quarter. Commodity inflation for full year 2023 was 5.6%, which was the midpoint of our guidance. Labor, as a percentage of total sales, decreased 28 basis points to 33.1% as compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. Labor dollars per store week increased 7.9% due to wage and other labor inflation of 5.5% and growth in hours of 2.4%. For the full year, wage and other labor inflation came in at 6.6%, which was the midpoint of our 2023 guidance.
As Chris mentioned, we continue to expect wage and other labor inflation of between 4% and 5% in 2024. Included within this guidance is approximately $3 million of additional labor expense in the second half of 2024 from enhancements to our equity compensation program, including a move from quarterly to annual grants. Other operating costs were 15.8% of sales, which was 49 basis points higher than the fourth quarter of 2022. Included in the year-over-year change is an approximately 40 basis point negative impact from adjustments to our quarterly reserve for general liability insurance. These adjustments include $3.7 million of additional expense this year and a $0.9 million credit last year.
Moving below restaurant margin, G&A dollars grew 23.3% year-over-year and came in at 4.3% of revenue for the fourth quarter. The primary driver of the year-over-year increase was higher cash and equity compensation. For 2024, the equity grant enhancement will also add approximately $3.5 million of G&A expense in the second half of the year. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 10.9%. Our full year 2023 income tax rate of 12.5% was below our guidance due to a lower than anticipated state tax rate, and we are updating our expectation for the full year 2024 income tax rate to approximately 14%. Finally, as we reminded everyone last quarter, 2024 is a 53-week year for us.
As such, the fourth quarter will have 14 weeks versus our normal 13 weeks. We estimate that the additional week could benefit full year 2024 earnings per share growth by approximately 4%. Now, I will turn the call back over to Jerry for final comments.
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Thanks, Michael. There's no question 2023 was another legendary year for Texas Roadhouse, and we are looking forward to building on our momentum into 2024. As always, we will be focused on driving sales, controlling costs, taking care of our people, and maximizing shareholder value. We are also looking forward to our upcoming Managing Partner conference in Austin, Texas, where we will be celebrating all of our amazing partners. Additionally, we will be naming our annual Managing Partner of the Year for Texas Roadhouse and our second ever Bubba's 33 Managing Partner of the Year. I'm very proud of our accomplishments and even more excited for our future. It's a great time to be a Roadie at Texas Roadhouse. That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the line for questions.
Operator (participant)
At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. Your first question comes from the line of Jeffrey Bernstein from Barclays. Your line is open.
Jeffrey Bernstein (Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Thank you very much. Two questions. The first one, just thinking about the 2024 restaurant margins, it's pretty impressive you nailed the cost outlook in 2023 in terms of the ranges you provided for COGS and labor. If you were to do the same in 2024, and obviously, you gave us the inflation guidance you expect at this point, but if you came in within those ranges, can you talk about the potential restaurant margin expansion outcomes or maybe the range of outcomes you could see, or what you think would be the greatest unknowns in terms of that restaurant margin? And then I had one follow-up.
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Yeah. Hi, Jeff. It's Michael. Thanks for the question. You know, there's a couple things, you know, that you may need to determine on your own, and that really will, you know, relates to the top-line growth, how much traffic you want to assume, what pricing we may take in, you know, the fourth quarter. But assuming modest traffic growth, modest additional pricing, and kind of hitting the midpoint of our range, I do think you have opportunity to see restaurant margin expansion. And really, you know, the other operating is probably the biggest area for that expansion. You may also get some, you know, you know, labor, you probably would get some expansion earlier in the year, and then some of those enhancements that we talked about may flatten that out.
And then your commodities will probably, with the stairstep up in the commodity inflation, you're going to see leverage earlier in the year. And again, that's just with the guidance that we've you know, given how it probably would play out.
Jeffrey Bernstein (Equity Research Analyst)
Understood. So it sounds like both labor and commodities could be more favorable in the first half, less so in the back half?
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Yes, I would agree with that, you know, as far as how we contemplate the inflation playing out.
Jeffrey Bernstein (Equity Research Analyst)
Got you. Then just to clarify on the comp strength through the fourth quarter, pretty stable in October and November, accelerated nicely in December. Is there any change in consumer behavior you're seeing, whether traffic or mix shift, how the consumer is spending, even going into the first 50 days of this year? I'm just wondering whether you get the sense there's any change in behavior, with obviously a lot of people anticipating a potential slowdown or whatnot. But I'm just wondering what you're seeing across your portfolio of brands in terms of consumer spending patterns and behavior. Thank you.
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Yeah, Jeff, it's Michael again. I'd say, you know, we are very excited about what we're seeing at all of our brands. The consumer behavior does not seem to have changed in the fourth quarter or, you know, really changed much in the first 50 days of the year. You know, and a lot of that can be seen by the traffic growth that we put up. I mean, you know, we continue to see some negative mix in the alcohol category. I think that's more of an industry behavior than anything directly related to Texas Roadhouse. But other than that, I think we continue to see, you know, guests trading into us from fast casual or other casual diners.
Some of those are probably going more towards the value side of our menu, the 6-ounce sirloin and the other, you know, lower-priced items. And maybe they're not—they're getting a soft beverage instead of an alcoholic beverage, but we feel very happy with the consumer right now.
Jeffrey Bernstein (Equity Research Analyst)
Fantastic. Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Peter Saleh from BTIG. Your line is open.
Peter Saleh (Managing Director and BTIG Restaurants and Food Distributors Analyst)
Great, thanks for taking the question. I did want to come back to the conversation around the commodities. You know, and you reduced your outlook, or at least the inflation outlook, just slightly. I assume you guys are mostly contracted on the first half of the year, so you got some good visibility. Can you just elaborate a little bit on really what you're seeing there and what really caused you to kind of take that down, albeit modestly?
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Yeah. Hey, Peter, it's Michael. It really had to do with, you're right, the first half of the year, what we were seeing, you know, in the first quarter and some of the expectation of what will continue the next several months. And we do then think, you know, that tightening really starts, you know, to have a bigger financial impact, you know, on the industry in the back half of the year. So, the change was largely because of, you know, the beef outlook in the earlier months. You are correct, we have, you know, certainly in the first quarter, a good amount of our beef and our commodities locked. It becomes a smaller percent as you move further out.
For competitive reasons, probably not going to get into much more detail as to what percent locked. But again, you know, our beef experts are picking and choosing their moments as to when to lock in and when it's better to be on a formula basis.
Chris Monroe (CFO)
Peter, this is Chris. I'll just add to... You know, I talked last quarter about the other part of our basket is helping to offset the beef inflation. That's continuing, so we're certainly seeing that. But everything Michael just told you about our situation with beef is continuing.
Peter Saleh (Managing Director and BTIG Restaurants and Food Distributors Analyst)
Great. Thank you. And then just on the CapEx, I know $340 million-$350 million. I recognize that is, you know, obviously much higher than it was several years ago. Can you just help us out in terms of, you know, what, what's really changed over the past couple of years? I know you said the restaurants are a little bit larger, so that's adding some more to the expense. Are you also doing any bump outs this year or any other renovations that we should be aware of that are kind of driving that number that high?
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Yeah. Hey, Peter, it's Michael. I mean, we certainly, you know, will be doing bump outs like, you know, we have done in past years and other remodels. Those higher numbers really are a reflection of, you know, the inflation that, you know, that equipment and, you know, labor has seen to get work done over the last several years. You know, coupled with, you know, we're now an older, you know, base of restaurants than we were before, and we're busier than we've ever been. So we have equipment that needs, you know, to be replaced. And, you know, getting work done, whether that be building a new restaurant or bumping out an existing restaurant, costs more than it did in the past. So, that's really what has, you know, driven those costs higher.
Chris Monroe (CFO)
Yeah, and the only thing I would add to that, again, is Chris. The only thing I would add to that is our investment in some technology, like that Jerry was talking about, the 200 restaurants we're going to put digital kitchen in. So that, that'll add as well. But those are all, you know, investments we feel really good about paying off in the future.
Peter Saleh (Managing Director and BTIG Restaurants and Food Distributors Analyst)
Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of David Tarantino from Baird. Your line is open.
David Tarantino (Director of Research and Senior Research Analyst)
Hi. Hi, good afternoon. A couple questions about the pricing philosophy and the margin outlook. So I guess first, you know, with the price increase you're planning in March, it does look like, you know, the total pricing that you're taking this year is gonna be pretty closely matched up with inflation. And, you know, I think in the past, you know, the philosophy has been to perhaps underprice versus inflation. So, you know, do I have that right?
... And then if so, is this, is this a change in your philosophy on how you're managing margins in, in going forward?
Chris Monroe (CFO)
Well, I think, you know, we have always taken a conservative approach in how we look at it throughout the country in maintaining value in our menu. So when we gather with our operators and really talk over about mandated wage increases and different things that will affect their business, we still wanna have a competitive mindset as we go into keeping our value built into our menu and making sure that we're also keeping value for our consumer in place. Michael can talk to a little bit on the numbers from that.
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Yeah, I think, David, what I would mention is, you know, it, it definitely is not a change in our philosophy. We've always said, you know, we, we wanna be pricing for the structural component of inflation, which is largely, wage inflation. But that doesn't mean that we're always pricing for all of it as soon as we're feeling it. So some of the pricing that we are taking now is to offset wage pressures that we have felt over the last several years, you know, as we continue to manage that, that labor line, both through, productivity efforts, but, the reality of the higher wage rates that we're paying.
Definitely not a change in philosophy, still going, you know, from a bottom up, bottom up approach of talking to each operator and making sure they are, you know, absolutely in alignment with what we're doing.
David Tarantino (Director of Research and Senior Research Analyst)
Great. That's, that's a helpful explanation. And then on, on the commodity outlook, stepping up in the second half, is that, does that sort of give us some visibility into next year in that maybe the, the beef costs or whatever commodity costs are accelerating? I assume it's beef. You know, could you, could have a carryover impact from that as you look into next year? I just wanna understand how to think about that.
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Yeah. Hey, David, it's Michael. I would say it's a little early for us to give you any thoughts on what this could mean for 2025, but, you know, the industry reports out there obviously are calling for tighter supply, you know, into 2024, and, as of yet, not hearing, you know, much relief coming in the future, but, a little early for us to be able to give you any true thoughts about 2025.
David Tarantino (Director of Research and Senior Research Analyst)
Great. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Dennis Geiger from UBS. Your line is open.
Dennis Geiger (Executive Director)
Great, appreciate it. Wondering if you could talk a little bit more, to sort of thinking about the labor situation as it relates to labor relative to traffic for 2024. Does that look more like the historical relationship? Might you look better than the historical relationship? Maybe if you could just kinda touch on, on what that looks like and, and perhaps how digital kitchens and tech more broadly may be able to help out from that perspective.
Chris Monroe (CFO)
Hey, Dennis, it's Chris. Yeah, I'll start. I mean, I think we were really encouraged in the fourth quarter. Our labor hours grew less than 50% of traffic growth, and that was, you know, that's been difficult to achieve since the pandemic. And so, there's a focus by our operators on that line item. And, the fact that we have employees, you know, staying with us, our turnover is at or better than it was, pre-COVID. And all of those things, you know, provide some encouragement on that particular line item. But again, to have achieved it in the fourth quarter, we're projecting that we can do it again in the first quarter. And so I think all that's very positive.
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
And I'll speak to the digital kitchen. This is Jerry. You know, we've opened all of our new stores with a digital kitchen this year. We converted 20. We've really been talking strategically about how to get the whole Roadhouse concept on that digital kitchen format because of the many benefits that we see not only for the commotion in the kitchen itself, but even the ability to track our cook times and so many features that we believe will enhance our experience for our employees in the back of the house, and it'll impact in a positive manner the cook times for our front of the house table turns. So the digital kitchen is a huge commitment.
The feedback from our operators has been incredible, and the demand and desire is there. So we just and, you know, the number is a pretty big number for us, but we've got a great game plan, and I think strategically, we're gonna execute at a high level to do that. All of Jaggers and Bubba's are already on the digital kitchen format.
Dennis Geiger (Executive Director)
Great. Thanks, guys, and congrats again on the results.
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Thank you so much.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Sarah Senatore from Bank of America. Your line is open.
Sara Senatore (Senior Research Analyst)
Hey, thank you. Two clarifications. The first is on the labor point. You know, you made the point that you grew hours less than traffic. I guess I was under the impression that maybe as we think about fiscal 2023, you were kind of getting to full staffing over the course of the year across most of the restaurants. So while your wage inflation maybe was highest in the first half, you know, maybe your hours were not. And so I was just curious if that, you know, if there is sort of an opportunity in the second half of this year to maybe have more labor leverage from that perspective, even if wage inflation is perhaps more moderate, and whether the technology may also contribute to that.
So that was the first clarification, just sort of the staffing approach through 2023.
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Yeah. Hey, Sarah, it's Michael. Yeah, I do think what Chris talked about, you know, those labor hours growing, you know, at less than traffic is something that could certainly continue, you know, into Q2 and into Q3, and, you know, into the fourth quarter as well. You know, our operators are focused on that productivity. People are staying around longer, so that is certainly, you know, an expectation or something that we are, you know, gonna be working on, you know, all year long, getting that better productivity on the labor hours.
Sara Senatore (Senior Research Analyst)
Great. Okay, thank you. And then the question was about, you know, your mix has been very consistent, you know, there's just modestly negative. Even though, you know, we seem to be keep hearing that the industry is getting more focused on value. So are you seeing anything that would suggest that, you know, your relative value proposition is that gap is narrowing or, or, you know, people are making different decisions just 'cause it doesn't appear to be showing up in your, your comps at all, but curious on your thoughts on that?
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Yeah, I think just like to your point, it's not showing up glaringly for us either. I think our value has always been built into the menu, and the consumer feels very good about our offerings, and from that standpoint, whether it be our steak or our chicken or all of our offerings are country dinners, so you know, we feel very good about where we're placed, but we don't see anything to indicate that there's a lot of movement within that menu pricing.
Sara Senatore (Senior Research Analyst)
Thank you.
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of David Palmer from Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
David Palmer (Senior Managing Director)
Thank you, and amazing quarter-to-date comps, really amazing.
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Thank you so much.
David Palmer (Senior Managing Director)
I wanted to ask you about KDS. You just commented a little bit about some of the things that it does for you, and the good news, I guess, is that you're not—you don't have to be pioneers on KDS, and you've seen it in some of your brands already. You know, can you maybe give us a sense of what it can do to the metrics that the Wall Street nerds would be following? You know, comps, margins, things like that. Maybe even this is something that will help you on that labor leverage, where you might be able to add hour, less hours because of table turns, and you make the shift work better. I don't know, but, you know, is there any metrics that you could share what it does for you?
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Well, David, thanks for... I think that, and this is Jerry. You know, the benefit for us is really about the efficiency of the overall kitchen, and the way that the digital kitchen organizes through the screens versus through the tickets creates a lot less chaos, I guess you could say. There's no doubt we can track our cook times. There's some real positives from that side of it, as we've already seen, and again, we're only 40 or 50 in, but we are very committed. Every indicator that we have, and Michael will talk to your Wall Street nerd thing, but I will just talk to you as a kitchen guy. What I see in those kitchens is communication, a consistency.
It just organizes it so people don't stress out when you got a whole bunch of tickets in front of you and all of that, and we can clearly monitor how long our cook times are. So that will be a big win for us going forward. And then I think Michael has a couple of comments.
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Yeah. Thanks, Jerry. Yeah, I do think, again, that calmer kitchen does lead to a happier Roadie, who is then less likely to seek other employment. So maybe your turnover improves because of that, and you're getting... You're keeping that efficient, productive employee for longer. But as far as what it may do to the front of the house, I think, you know, we have found that the digital kitchen does time the food out a little bit better. So maybe those salads get out, you know, as an appetizer to the guest a little bit quicker, and, you know, the entrees are getting out there a little bit quicker.
So you couple that benefit with our, you know, Roadhouse Pay, our pay at the table system, which is speeding up the check and change portion of the dining experience. And, you know, then maybe you at the guest's discretion, you have shortened the table turn time and which allows you to quote a shorter wait time to that next guest. So by the end of the night, maybe somebody who was previously being told they could be sat at 8:30 P.M. is now being told, you know, 8:10 P.M. or 8:15 P.M., and that may make all the difference in their willingness to stay and, you know, us getting another table turn out of, you know, in the restaurant.
David Palmer (Senior Managing Director)
And do you? Is this something that you'll ramp the deployment of? I know you wait for it to be pulled, but I would imagine at this point that it's being pulled heavily. I mean, how fast can you roll these out? Can this be done by the end of 2025, for example? Any sense of that?
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Well, I think we're gonna try to get through this year and see how these 200 go, and then obviously the intention is to get the whole concept done. I think it might take a little longer than that, but we wanna do it strategically, and we wanna execute at a high level for our partners. So, we'll be as fast as we possibly can 'cause we're committed to it and believe in it, but I don't wanna put a date on it yet.
David Palmer (Senior Managing Director)
Thank you very much.
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Farmer from Gordon Haskett. Your line is open.
Jeff Farmer (Managing Director)
Thank you. Just some quick modeling follow-ups. Assuming the 2.2% menu pricing takes place in March, what would Q1 and Q2 menu pricing be?
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Sure. Hey, Jeff, it's Michael, and again, that, that pricing will go into effect our first day of our second quarter. So, you know, for, for the first quarter, you know, you won't get any benefit from it, but, but we'll have between 4.8% and 4.9% pricing in Q1, and we'll have basically the same thing in Q2 and Q3, about 4.8%-4.9% for both those quarters. And obviously, if we didn't do anything, you know, in the back half of the year, in the fourth quarter, we would only have the 2.2% in Q4. But we'll reevaluate what's appropriate, as we get later into the year of what we may wanna add on to that.
Andy Barish (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
All right. Thank you. And now, weather impact on the quarter to date, same store sales in the Q1. Did you share that?
Chris Monroe (CFO)
Yeah, that's, this is Chris, Jeff. You know, January we had, and we talked about that in the prepared remarks, but January had two really tough weeks. And it impacted the guest counts by about 2.5%. And so, if you take that extrapolated into the first 50 days, we were down about 1%. So the 3% growth that Michael shared with you, if you take that weather out, would have been 4%. So there was a lot to be proud of in those first 50 days, and our operators, you know, they slogged through those two very difficult weeks, and took care of the customers that were able to show up and served them well.
But, it was a great first 50 days in spite of those two weeks.
Jeff Farmer (Managing Director)
It was definitely. And just last one for me, Q4 check, I think you shared, was 4.8%, but just some quick breakdown of pricing and mix for the Q4.
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Yeah, hey, Jeff, we had 5.5% pricing in Q4, so therefore, we had about 70 basis points of negative mix, giving us that check up 4.8.
Jeff Farmer (Managing Director)
All right. Thank you. Pass it on.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Lauren Silberman from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Lauren Silberman (Director)
Hi, thanks, and congrats on the results. I wanted to ask first, just on the other OpEx, it's been growing pretty steadily, even if you exclude some of the one-time items that you talked about. So can you just, you know, help us understand how to think about OpEx growth or on the other OpEx side in 2024?
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Yeah. Hey, Lauren, it's Michael. Thanks for the question. You are right that those... You know, even though we did get some, you know, been getting some leverage, you know, overall on that line, it is the underlying pressure, you know, has remained. And you know, there are a lot of inflationary items in there, a lot of services in there. You know, but your repair and maintenance, you know, cost is, is a big one, on top of the general liability, insurance costs, you, you know, even absent some of the reserve adjustments we've had. So moving into 2024, I do think that on a dollars per store week, you will continue to see, an increase, but, you know, it should not be at the rate that you, you know, that we have seen.
Probably, you'd probably start a little bit higher in Q1, but, but mid-single digit growth in those dollars per Store Week, and, and then maybe coming down a little bit from that, as you move, you know, through the year. That's obviously without knowing what other kinds of, you know, reserve adjustments we may have or not have, but, with what we know right now, that would be my expectation.
Lauren Silberman (Director)
Great. Very helpful. On the to-go side, you saw sales per week accelerate, it looks like, throughout the year in terms of growth. Can you just provide a little bit more color on what you're seeing on that to-go side and, you know, why you've seen, I guess, positive growth, at least over the last three quarters now?
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Yeah, I'll start off. You know, I just really believe that it's our ability to execute full dining rooms and continue to keep the level of service through our to-go experience. So I think as our operators have gotten used to that volume at the high level that we are at, it has allowed us to continue to take more orders and be more available to our guests.
Chris Monroe (CFO)
Yeah, this is Chris. I'll just add on. I mean, I, and I know you, you watch us every quarter, but you, you saw that, you know, it, it sort of spiked during the pandemic, then it began to come down over time, and now it is, it is, kinda coming back up again. So this is, just to Jerry's point, our, our folks know how to execute it, and it's definitely a popular, thing for our guests.
So we're looking forward to continuing to see that, you know, do well over time.
Lauren Silberman (Director)
Great. Just last one from me. Can you just clarify, and I appreciate the, appreciate the color on all the quarter to date, what you're running in terms of comp, you know, as the weather passed, just to clarify?
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Sure, Lauren, it's Michael. You know, so within that 50 days, I guess I can, you know, tell you, you know, our January comp was, you know, a 4.2%, and then the last, you know, three weeks, you know, plus a day was a little over 10%.
Lauren Silberman (Director)
Appreciate all the color.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Andy Barish from Jefferies. Your line is open.
Andy Barish (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, guys. Most of my stuff has been asked. Just, could you quantify in the 4Q, sort of the holiday benefit of the Christmas shift, and then, the Lenten season is, you know, upon us and started a week earlier for, you know, 1Q, any, you know, any commentary around that for the rest of the quarter, is it or is it, you know, kind of minor?
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Hey, Andy. How are you doing, bud? Listen,
Andy Barish (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Good, sir.
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
I think, you know, the first quarter, obviously, we just had Valentine's Day yesterday, which gives us a great indication that we're off and running strong and solid. So that's hard to... You know, all the other things that you asked about, I do know we have some promotional stuff going on at Jaggers, but I think it, it right now, without the weather, the momentum is very solid into the first quarter.
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
... Yeah, and Andy, it's Michael. I don't know if I have any numbers at my fingertips regarding the, you know, benefits, you know, around the holidays. But we definitely, you know, saw some benefit, you know, in that time frame, but I'm not gonna be able to put a number on that right now. But again, what, you know, the numbers we've been putting up, you know, go beyond just a couple days, you know, with a calendar shift. We've seen strong for quite a while.
Andy Barish (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Understood. And then, just circling back on the CapEx with, you know, with the 200 digital kitchen conversions coming in, but total CapEx staying the same, what's the offset there, where there's some, you know, idiosyncratic things that kinda hit last year, or how should we think about that? You know, staying flat, although clearly spending some more capital, you know, on this, on the KDS.
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Yeah, Andy, without getting too much into the details, it's fair to say, you know, that our initial estimate that we put out there, you know, gave us some room, you know, some wiggle room for other projects and things to come in there. And, you know, the acceleration of the digital kitchens, you know, filled some of that space. So, again, you know, we left ourselves some room for that. So it was not that we did this and had to replace it with, you know, take something else out.
Chris Monroe (CFO)
Yeah, and I'll just, Andy, it's Chris. I'll just add into that. I mean, it's about $45,000 a store to put the KDS in, and so you're talking about roughly $9 million. And on that big of a budget, you know, we can find a way to get it in there.
Andy Barish (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Appreciate the detail. Thank you.
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Chris O'Cull from Stifel. Your line is open.
Chris O'Cull (Managing Director)
Hey, thanks. Good afternoon, guys. Jerry, are you seeing any signs that are growing, you know, that a number of your restaurants may be getting closer to capacity during peak hours? I'm just wondering if you're seeing a need for additional bump outs or maybe any other approach that could increase sales headroom.
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Yeah, Chris, thanks for the... I think the bump outs, and we're doing cooler expansions, which really a lot-- that's part of what the costs are, is giving these folks that are really serving a lot of guests, is really more storage in the back to be able to get more food in their building. The other-- the upside to even at our elevated average unit volume at over $7.5 million, you know, we've got a large group of restaurants that are doing significantly more than that. And so, as I've said in the past, they're the ones leading the way that show us that even our average unit volumes can increase year after year if we continue to execute and do the things that our operators need to be able to get more people through their building.
There's definitely a demand there. We just got to continue to execute, more people, more product, and we'll be just fine.
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Chris, this is Michael. I just want to add on to what Jerry said, which, you know, which I think is, you know, quite impressive. Those highest volume restaurants, the, you know, ones that are above average or well above average, continue to comp, you know, at or, you know, at least at the average, if not better than average. You know, that certainly, you know, happened throughout 2023. So we haven't seen those busiest restaurants find, you know, come up against a wall as far as growth. So that gives us quite a bit of confidence for even our, the room that our average stores have for future growth.
Chris O'Cull (Managing Director)
That's, that's impressive. And then could you provide some additional color around what unit economics you're targeting at Jaggers, and then maybe how many development commitments that you have right now for Jaggers?
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Yeah, go ahead, Michael.
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Yeah, Chris, it's Michael again. I would say it's a little early for us to get into specifics on returns. Clearly, you know, we have a couple franchisees already who have opened stores and will be opening more stores. So, you know, I don't want to put words in their mouth, but I would say they are pleased with what they are seeing, and there are continued conversations with future partners as well. So not gonna get into returns either on the company side or the franchise side, but we are very pleased with you know, what we are seeing and what we believe Jaggers can do going forward.
Chris O'Cull (Managing Director)
Great. Thanks, guys.
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Thank you.
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Thanks, Chris.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from a line of Andrew Strelzik from BMO. Your line is open.
Andrew Strelzik (Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. I was hoping you could start maybe by giving some color on Bubba's. I know you've done a lot of work on the brand over the last two years or so. So where are you seeing progress or other areas that need more work, opportunities, thoughts around where Bubba's is today would be great.
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Yeah, thank you, Andrew. I feel really good about Bubba's. We've put a lot of investment in the last couple of years, not only on the people, getting the right people, the leaders, the support all the way around it. We've done some what I think are really solid structural parts of the building to keep the cost down, and we see our sales growing. So all of the indicators are that people are loving the food with the burgers and the pizzas and the energy that we have with our rock and roll. And but I think the biggest thing is about having leadership, having consistency, and the ability to execute, and people identifying who Bubba's 33 is. So all indicators are very positive, and we're very happy with the continued progress that Bubba's is making.
Andrew Strelzik (Equity Research Analyst)
That's great to hear. And then, just following up on some of the, the commodity inflation or food inflation outlook, you noted the, the kind of more modest, increases in the first half of the year and then a step up in the back half. Can you be a little more specific, you know, kind of either front half, back half or, or by quarter, kind of how you're expecting that to progress?
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Yeah, I mean, hey, you know, Andrew, it's Michael. I'd say, you know, Q1 is definitely kind of our expectation to be at the low point where maybe you're in the 2%-3% inflation range, and then it grows from there. You know, and I don't know necessarily that the Q2, Q3, and Q4 that's, you know, dramatically different than each other. It is a stair step up, certainly from probably Q2 into the back half. But that Q1 is really the one that stands out as being a little bit lower.
Andrew Strelzik (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Maybe if I could just squeeze one more in. A question on buybacks and your appetite there. You noted, you know, paying off the last bit of the debt there, you know, and I know the CapEx is going to be up, but I'm just curious, your appetite for share repurchases at this point for 2024. Thanks.
Chris Monroe (CFO)
Yeah, Andrew, it's Chris. Look, our operating cash flow and our balance sheet are major advantages for us, and so we are going to continue to take this balanced approach over the long haul like we have. And you saw the increase to the dividend that our board approved with Jerry and that we're happy to have that out there. And we'll look at share repurchases. Obviously, the first place we go is to think about, you know, bringing in the dilution. But as we have opportunities to continue to invest, and you know, we'll look at that first. But then if there is cash left over, we're going to be looking at continuing the share repurchase program.
Andrew Strelzik (Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Gregory Francfort from Guggenheim Securities. Your line is open.
Gregory Francfort (Managing Director and Senior Restaurant Analyst)
Hey, hey, thanks for the question. I had two quick ones. The first is just, I need you to answer the question on capacity earlier. I'm curious, your appetite to maybe accelerate unit growth beyond the kind of 5%-6% range. I mean, you guys are running really healthy traffic, and I'm wondering if you—what would it take to maybe expand that pace of unit growth a little bit?
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Well, thank you. It's important for us to keep a cadence of how many openings that we can do a year and be balanced in our approach. We have to do it right. We have to get every store open with incredible energy. It takes a lot of folks inside. So we like our number of what we're doing for Roadhouse and the other two brands. So you'll probably see us stay very close to that. If we get an opportunity to increase a couple here and there, we might take that opportunity, but I don't think we're going to change our overall strategic goal or game plan on growth.
Gregory Francfort (Managing Director and Senior Restaurant Analyst)
Got it. And then just maybe I may have missed it earlier, but any thoughts on where the turnover environment looks like or the, you know, quit rates or what that might be doing to your training and ability to train workers? Any thoughts on the labor market, that would be helpful.
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Yeah. Thank you. You know, we feel really good. We put a lot of work into it in the last couple of years, and, you know, we look at it three levels: our managing partners, our managers, and our Roadies. And all three of those indicators are that turnover is coming down, which also means that we're getting more reps, and running these shifts that are at a higher volume. So all of those indicators are pretty solid. There are folks, applicant flow has been pretty solid for us. So from that standpoint, the work and the effort that we put in has really benefited, and I think we're creating an environment where our employees want to work and be a part of something that's really special.
So I believe it's a very positive environment out there, and we are benefit. The longer our folks can stay around and we keep Roadie Nation happy, they're going to keep taking care of us.
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Winners win.
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Yeah.
Gregory Francfort (Managing Director and Senior Restaurant Analyst)
Thank you, guys.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from a line of Brian Vaccaro from Raymond James. Your line is open.
Brian Vaccaro (Managing Director and Equity Analyst)
Hi, thanks, and good evening. I'm just circling back on the topic of table turns and Roadie Pay, etc., and I guess tying it into comps a little bit. Obviously, your comps have been impressive for a long time now. But I'm curious, as you, as you dig into your comps a little bit, are you seeing outsized growth or, or even maybe a little bit of an acceleration in peak demand periods that you might be able to tie back to table turns? Or, or more broadly, are there any other day part or regional differences, in your recent trends that might be worth highlighting?
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Yeah. Hey, Brian, it's Michael. Good to hear from you. You know, some of that is a little difficult to parse out, but I, you know, I can tell you, geographically, we are seeing, you know, similar results, you know, across the country. By age of our restaurants, we're seeing similar results. You know, and then as far as the day part, we are seeing a little bit more strength, you know, earlier in the day and into the power, you know, the what we call the power hours, that six to eight o'clock time frame.
So whether that's coming from, you know, the technology investments, hard to tell you, but we're certainly doing, you know, everything we can to give that guest a good experience, give them the opportunity to get in and get out, at their pace, and I think that's what we'll continue to focus on going forward.
Brian Vaccaro (Managing Director and Equity Analyst)
All right. That's helpful. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from a line of Brian Harbour from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Brian Harbour (Equity Research Analyst)
Yeah, thanks. Maybe just one from me. Michael or Chris, what do you have any view on kind of G&A this year, either in, you know, growth terms or per, or percent of sales as you think about leverage there?
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Hey, Brian, it's Michael. Yeah, you know, you know, G&A, as a growth company, we're going to continue to invest in our people, in our systems. I think our philosophy remains the same, that we would like to see those G&A dollars grow, you know, at less than revenue growth and, you know, continue to see if we can get some leverage there. You know, we were at 4.3% of revenue in 2023. That's come down significantly from where we are. So we'll see what happens in 2024. I can tell you, you know, that, you know, you probably you know, would see...
You know, in Q1, I think we have the most opportunity to not see a lot of increase, but then after that, yeah, you will start to see some increase. Again, being a 53-week year, you know, you could see us having the need to accrue for additional bonus compensation. And then, again, you would then lap that into 25. And, you know, we talked a little bit about some of the equity compensation enhancements that we've made, and that'll impact the second half of the year. So, I think you'll continue to see those G&A dollars grow and, you know, maybe it's not a year where we get a lot of leverage. Some of that will, you know, depend upon what the top line ends up doing.
But, you know, yeah, definitely, you know, investments to be made, you know, in the business.
Brian Harbour (Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Jim Sanderson from North Coast Research. Your line is open.
Jim Sanderson (Managing Director and Research Analyst)
Hey, thanks for the question, and, congratulations on a great quarter. I wanted to go back to the mix issue. It seems to me that's improving, not as negative as it has been. Do you expect that to pretty much iron itself out, so to speak? And is there an opportunity to actually see that become an upsell opportunity to make that positive as we go into the back half of the year?
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Hey, Jim, it's Michael. I mean, you are correct. Q4, with the 70 basis points, was a little bit less than what we had been seeing the last couple of quarters. You know, there were a few things in there that benefited us in the fourth quarter around the holiday time. You know, you see maybe an increase in bread sales and the such that can offset some of, you know, some other areas. It, it'll be something we'll be watching here into 2024 of whether that trend continues. You know, our entrees, again, if we continue to see people trading into us and growing our traffic, but maybe they're hitting the value side, you could have a little bit of negative mix there.
And that alcohol is a little bit of a question mark, I'll be honest with you. You know, will that flatten out or just kind of the societal trends right now of, I think, a little bit less alcohol sales, you know, may stay with us? That's just one we'll have to wait and see what happens on.
Jim Sanderson (Managing Director and Research Analyst)
Okay, so probably a little bit of a headwind going forward, just not as bad. Is that the right way to look at it?
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
You know, it's a hard, it's a hard one to fully answer, but I think in the, you know, the economic, you know, you know, consumer environment we're in, it would not surprise me to, for it to, to be a little bit of a headwind. But it, but again, it's one that until you really see what's going on, it's hard to fully predict.
Jim Sanderson (Managing Director and Research Analyst)
All right. Understood. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Rahul Krotthapalli from JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Rahul Krotthapalli (Equity Research Analyst)
Thanks for taking my question, guys. I just wanted to follow up and expand a bit more on Bubba's. Can you discuss the store margin growth year on year and help us get some confidence in the longer-term store margin profiles for this concept? Is there a potential for this to be at or about Roadhouse? Can we expect an inflection at some point, or are there any structural costs, like prime costs, for this concept lower versus Roadhouse as we go forward? And I have a follow-up.
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Hey, this is Michael. I can answer some of that, but I'm probably not going to give you all the information that you're maybe, you know, looking for. I can tell you, you know, we feel very good that Bubba's can generate those, you know, mid-teen returns that we're looking for. We believe Bubba's can generate a very strong restaurant margin. Your point of can they be in line with Roadhouse if they were doing similar sales volumes? Yeah, absolutely, that is possible. But the reality is, you know, Roadhouse, you know, performs at a higher level than Bubba's and a higher level than most restaurant concepts. So that is going to benefit Roadhouse from a margin perspective.
But the menu items that we have at Bubba's would lend itself to a very strong margin as compared to Roadhouse on similar volumes. I think that's about as far as we're probably going to go on that one right now.
Rahul Krotthapalli (Equity Research Analyst)
That's helpful, Mike, thanks for that. On the follow-up, I know you guys talked about having a total of 900-store span for the company as a whole, and I think, like, Roadhouse was targeted at 700-800 over time. I know you guys discussed a lot of new, like, the digital kitchens, like, new store formats and whatnot. I'm just curious if there is an updated thought on this number and how you are looking at this going down the line.
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Yeah, thank you. We believe that's a great target for us. We adjusted that, I believe, just a little over a year ago, after a lot of research and just thinking about our business going forward. So there's no adjustment to that number now. We're still focused on being responsible to all of our partners out there, but we believe we can get to that number.
Rahul Krotthapalli (Equity Research Analyst)
Perfect. Thanks, guys.
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
... Your next question comes from the line of John Tower from Citigroup. Your line is open.
John Tower (Director of Equity Research)
Great. Thanks for taking and hanging in there. Just real quick, first, on the, the G&A side, the grant changes that you're talking about in the second half of 2024, I'm assuming those are not one time in nature and something that'll carry forward into 2025. So just wanted to first confirm that.
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Hey, it's Michael. On the G&A side, those are a little bit more one time in nature. It's really an acceleration of the grants. So, you know, we will still be expensing grants that we've, you know, been given quarterly over the last several years, and we'll now be pulling up and granting all at one time some grants that would have been happening over the next several quarters. So we'll feel that one time in Q3, Q4, and then some into the beginning of next year. The majority of it will then, you know, you know, not have an impact on us after that.
John Tower (Director of Equity Research)
How about the labor line that you had mentioned earlier as well?
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
The labor line is more of... is not as much one time in nature. You know, while you do have that, acceleration going on, the other enhancements of us, you know, increasing the amount of grants to some store-level employees, is part of it, but also, you know, including additional manager levels in the granting of equity compensation. So that is one that will, you know, stay with us going forward.
John Tower (Director of Equity Research)
Great, thanks. And then just curious, you know, your business has obviously got very strong demand from a traffic standpoint. And I know you've had some success earlier in terms of expanding some of the Early Dine options during the weekdays. I think you've, since COVID, added about an extra hour or so to that during the weekdays, if I'm not mistaken. So curious, do you feel like there's more opportunity to perhaps extend that further? I think it's mostly 3:00 P.M. to 6:00 P.M. now. You know, could you push it further to 2:30 P.M. or 2:00 P.M., or is that just something that kind of not contemplated today to meet that demand?
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Yeah. Thanks, John. I think it really is open to a 5:30 P.M. or 6:00 P.M., so if they open at 2:30 P.M., 2:45 P.M., but most of the stores are opening at 3:00 P.M. So as soon as they open, that Early Dine kicks in. I think that's where we'll stay for now. I don't see us getting any earlier than that, but might be a few out there.
John Tower (Director of Equity Research)
Great. Thanks for the time.
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from a line of Jake Bartlett from Truist Securities. Your line is open.
Jake Bartlett (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Great, thanks for taking the question. You know, mine is about development. First, maybe a clarification. You said today that you expect to open, or you continue to expect to open 30 company-owned stores across the three brands. My reading of the last earnings call was that it was 30 with Texas Roadhouse and Bubba's, but then three Jaggers. Just to confirm, is there any change in the company-owned development outlook in 2024?
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Jake, I don't think there's any change at this time. We're definitely after the massive amount of openings we had in the last four months of 2024, we are trying to strategically spread that out a little bit. But as of right now, we are focused on that number between the three.
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
Yeah, and, and I would just... Jake, this is Michael. I've... You know, it does say approximately 30, so, you know, we just put all of those, you know, you know, into there. The Jaggers timing, you know, you'll, you know, whether we get three open, we will see. And, you know, those could be later in the year, but we just felt, it was cleaner to give you all that number, you know, all in one.
Jake Bartlett (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. And you also mentioned that you expect the cadence to be, you know, more balanced over the year. Maybe if you could dig into that a little bit, maybe, you know, comments on the development environment, the headwinds we've been hearing about and seeing for, you know, three or four years now. Is that? Are you starting to see signs that that's easing and that's what gives you more confidence in a kind of evenly spaced development in 2024?
Chris Monroe (CFO)
Yeah. Jake, it's Chris, and I think we are seeing that smoothing out a little bit. And Jerry oversees our development team himself, and so that's something he may want to speak to. But I will say that a lot of the jurisdictional issues, the permitting issues, things that you've been hearing from us and others are largely behind us. There are still, you know, occasional problems in the supply chain, but for the most part, we're getting work done, although at a higher cost. And so that's definitely, you know, seems to be with us as we go.
But we do feel good about the way that we've got this. We're, you know, we're calling this cadence that we've built, and we feel very good about that as it's flowing through. I don't know if you have anything you wanted to add, Jerry.
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Yeah. Thanks, Chris. Just it's a matter of a lot of work been put into this timeline and building in the times that it takes to get all of these set up, and then we can make the decision. So I think there's been a lot of work and effort. It's looking really good right now for 2024 and 2025, and we really want to keep that cadence going forward. It takes a lot of pressure off of our crew to get the most of the openings in the first three quarters versus jamming everything into the fourth quarter. So we've been working really hard on that, and we're gonna try to keep that cadence going forward.
Jake Bartlett (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Then last little kind of nitpicky modeling question. If I look back at the extra operating week in 2019, the fourth quarter of 2019, it was about a 60 basis points benefit to restaurant margins. Is that where we're getting, you know, the 4% impact for the year when math could tell you 2% for an extra week? But is that about right, the 60 basis points boost in the restaurant margins, and that's really where the outsized earnings from that week comes from?
Michael Bailen (Head of Investor Relations)
I mean, it's Hey, Jake, it's Michael. I don't have the numbers right in front of me, you know, for this call, but certainly, you are getting margin expansion that, you know, you know, as part of the reason why you're getting 4%, you know, an estimated 4% benefit for, you know, approximately 2% increase in Store Week. So that's probably as much as I can, you know, give you, you know, on that. Some of the benefit does come, you know, outside of Restaurant Margin as well, but there is a benefit. You know, there surely is a benefit in there from that high volume extra week.
Jake Bartlett (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Great. I appreciate it. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
This concludes our question and answer session for today. I would like to turn the call back to Jerry Morgan.
Jerry Morgan (CEO)
Thank you and all for being on our call, tonight. And to Roadie Nation, yee-haw, to an incredible year! Thank each and every one of you. Let's go!
Operator (participant)
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.