Texas Roadhouse - Q4 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good evening, and welcome to the Texas Roadhouse fourth quarter earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded. All participants are now in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. At that time, if you would like to ask a question, please press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. Should anyone need assistance at any time during the conference, please press star zero and an operator will assist you. I would now like to introduce Michael Bailen, Vice President of Investor Relations for Texas Roadhouse. You may begin your conference.

Michael Bailen (VP of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Krista, and good evening. By now, you should have access to our earnings release for the fourth quarter ending December 30th, 2025. It may also be found on our website at texasroadhouse.com in the Investor section. I would like to remind everyone that part of our discussion today will include forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and therefore undue reliance should not be placed upon them. We refer all of you to our earnings release and our recent filings with the SEC. These documents provide a more detailed discussion of the relevant factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements. In addition, we may refer to non-GAAP measures. If applicable, reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures to the GAAP information can be found in our earnings release.

On the call with me today is Jerry Morgan, Chief Executive Officer of Texas Roadhouse, Mike Lenihan, our Chief Financial Officer, and Keith Humpich, our Chief Accounting and Financial Services Officer. Following the prepared remarks, we will be available to answer your questions. In order to accommodate everyone that would like to ask a question, could everyone please limit yourself to one question? Now, I would like to turn the call over to Jerry.

Jerry Morgan (CEO)

Thanks, Michael, and good evening, everyone. 2025 was another successful year as revenue grew to nearly $5.9 billion, and all three brands delivered positive sales and traffic growth. We also just completed our 60th consecutive quarter of comparable restaurant sales growth, excluding 2020. That's 15 years of sales growth going back to 2010. 2025 included a number of company milestones and accomplishments. We opened our 800th system-wide restaurant and acquired 20 of our franchise locations. Over 70% of our restaurants set both daily and weekly sales records. We completed the rollout of our Digital Kitchen and upgraded Guest Management Systems. We also solidified our home in Louisville by purchasing our support center buildings. Our operators continue to serve their communities by raising over $40 million for local schools and nonprofit organizations through their dedicated Dine to Donate fundraisers.

And finally, we remain proud to honor those who have served our nation by providing 1.2 million meals to veterans and active military in honor of Veterans Day. On the development front, in 2025, we added 48 restaurants to our company-owned restaurant base. This included 28 new store openings and the previously mentioned acquisition of 20 franchise restaurants. Our franchise partners opened four restaurants, including three international Texas Roadhouse and one domestic Jaggers. For 2026, we continue to expect approximately 35 company restaurant openings across the three brands. 2026 will also benefit from the acquisition of five California franchise restaurants, which occurred on the first day of the fiscal year. Our outlook for franchise development also remains unchanged, with the expectation of opening six international Texas Roadhouse and four domestic Jaggers.

For 33 years, our mission has been legendary food and legendary service, with a focus on high-level hospitality and value. This will remain the same in 2026 and beyond. While commodity inflation will continue to be a headwind this year, our operators remain committed to driving growth over the long term by providing a legendary experience to every guest. We just completed menu pricing calls with our operators. As always, maintaining our value proposition was a big topic of conversation. Based on these calls, we will be implementing a 1.9% menu price increase at the beginning of the second quarter. We will also continue to focus on our lineup of beverages with all of our restaurants offering some combination of mocktails, dirty sodas, and a $5 all-day, every-day beverage special. Moving on to technology.

As I mentioned earlier, in late 2025, we completed the rollout of our Digital Kitchen and upgraded Guest Management Systems. We are pleased with the results, and our technology priorities in 2026 will include the continued integration of these enhanced systems. Additionally, in 2026, we will expand the testing of a handheld tablet that our servers can use to input guest orders at the table. As our attention shifts to 2026 and beyond, we will remain relentless in our commitment to driving top-line growth.

Providing high level hospitality and everyday value to our guests, and remaining a people first company. Finally, I want to welcome Mike Lenihan, our new CFO, to the Texas Roadhouse family. For purposes of today's call, Mike is on for introductory purposes only. I will tell you that we are extremely excited to have Mike on the team. He's been getting to know us, and beginning next week, he will start his operations training at each of our brands. Mike, please share some thoughts on your experience so far.

Mike Lenihan (CFO)

Thanks, Jerry. I'm honored to have the privilege of joining Texas Roadhouse. As a member of the restaurant community for the last 20+ years, and a longtime resident of Louisville, I've witnessed Texas Roadhouse's incredible journey to become a leader in the industry and our community. Since joining in December, I've immersed myself into the culture of the support center, learning about the incredible hard work, people first approach, and teamwork needed to support our restaurants. I would like to specifically thank Keith, along with the rest of Team CFO, who have made my transition seamless and special. It's become clear that we have an incredible team, and I look forward to the opportunity to lead it while helping Texas Roadhouse on its growth journey. Finally, as Jerry mentioned, I'm looking forward to spending the next several weeks in our restaurants, learning from the best operators in the industry.

Now I'd like to turn it over to Keith for some thoughts on our 2025 performance, as well as comments on 2026.

Keith Humpich (Chief Accounting and Financial Services Officer)

Thanks, Mike. Along with the rest of the team, I would like to welcome you and your family to Texas Roadhouse. We can't wait to support you further in your Texas Roadhouse journey. Moving on to our results, 2025 was another banner year for top-line growth in our restaurants. Same-store sales increased 4.9% for the full year, including 2.8% traffic growth. Consolidated average unit volume exceeded $8.4 million, with average weekly sales of over $166,000 at Texas Roadhouse, $122,000 at Bubba's 33, and nearly $73,000 at Jaggers. In addition, despite cost pressures, we still generated the second highest restaurant margin dollars, income from operations, and earnings per share in our history.

While commodity inflation and the lapping of an additional week impacted our ability to generate earnings growth in 2025, we have not deviated from our strategy of serving more guests and expanding our restaurant base across the three brands. We are confident in our long-term strategy and believe we are set up for continued success over the coming years. Additionally, we ended the year with over $130 million of cash, and cash flow from operations for the full year was over $730 million. With this cash flow, we funded $388 million of capital expenditures, as well as the acquisition of 20 franchise restaurants for $108 million. We also returned $180 million to shareholders through dividends and another $150 million in share repurchases.

Moving on to 2026, our commodity inflation guidance of approximately 7% remains unchanged, with the continued expectation of being above the guidance in the first half of the year and below the guidance in the second half of the year. Beef inflation accounts for nearly all of the expected commodity inflation throughout the year. Our guidance for wage and other labor inflation also remains unchanged at 3%-4%. We expect the wage component of the inflation should moderate despite state-mandated increases, while cost pressures on insurance and other employee benefits will likely trend higher. Our approach to capital allocation for 2026 remains consistent with our proven philosophy of prioritizing new restaurant development and maintaining the condition of our existing locations. As such, our capital expenditure guidance of approximately $400 million remains unchanged.

This amount does not include $72 million paid at the beginning of the year to complete the previously mentioned acquisition of five California franchise locations. As part of funding this acquisition, we borrowed $50 million on our credit facility. Also, today, we announced a 10% increase to our quarterly dividend, which brings it to $0.75 per quarter. Now Michael will provide the fourth quarter financial update.

Michael Bailen (VP of Investor Relations)

Thanks, Keith. Before I begin the discussion of results, I want to remind everyone that the fourth quarter of 2024 included an additional week. Lapping the additional week negatively impacted fourth quarter revenue growth by approximately 9% and earnings growth by approximately 12%. My discussion will be based on reported results, which include the negative impact. For the fourth quarter of 2025, we reported revenue growth of 3.1%, driven by a 4% increase in average weekly sales, partially offset by a 0.6% decline in store weeks. We also reported a restaurant margin dollar decrease of 15.6% to $205 million, and a diluted earnings per share decrease of 26.1% to $1.28.

Average weekly sales in the fourth quarter were over $160,000, with to-go representing approximately $22,000 or 13.8% of these total weekly sales. Comparable sales increased 4.2% in the fourth quarter, driven by 1.9% traffic growth and a 2.3% increase in average check. By month, comparable sales grew 6.1%, 4.8%, and 2.2% for our October, November, and December periods respectively. And comparable sales for the first seven weeks of the first quarter were up 8.2%, with our restaurants averaging sales of approximately $170,000 per week during that period. In the fourth quarter, restaurant margin dollars per store week decreased 15.1% to $22,200.

Restaurant margin as a percentage of total sales decreased 309 basis points year-over-year to 13.9%. The year-over-year decline included lapping an estimated 45 basis point benefit from the additional week. Food and beverage costs as a percentage of total sales were 36.4% for the fourth quarter. The 281 basis point year-over-year increase was driven by 9.5% commodity inflation, combined with shifts within the entree category. This was partially offset by the benefit of a 2.3% check increase. Commodity inflation for full year 2025 was 6.1%, which was in line with our guidance of approximately 6%. Labor as a percentage of total sales increased 18 basis points to 33.2% as compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.

Labor dollars per store week increased 4.3% due to wage and other labor inflation of 2.9% and growth in hours of 1.4%. For the full year, wage and other labor inflation came in at 3.7%, which was slightly below our guidance of approximately 4%. Other operating costs were 14.9% of sales, which was four basis points better than the fourth quarter of 2024. While higher sales continued to generate leverage within some line items of other operating costs, it was almost fully offset this quarter by lapping the benefit of last year's additional week, as well as an increase in our quarterly reserve for general liability insurance.

These insurance adjustments included $3.5 million of additional expense this year, as compared to $2.7 million of additional expense last year. Moving below restaurant margin, G&A dollars declined 6% as compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 and came in at 3.6% of revenue for the fourth quarter. This was primarily driven by lapping approximately $3.7 million of higher expense related to last year's additional week. With our budgeting process for 2026 complete, we are currently forecasting a low double-digit percentage increase in G&A dollars for full year 2026. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 11.5%, and our full year 2025 income tax rate was 13.8%.

At this time, we are updating our forecast for the full year 2026 income tax rate from approximately 15% to between 14% and 15%. Now, I will turn the call back over to Jerry for final comments.

Jerry Morgan (CEO)

Thanks, Michael. I want to take a moment to thank our guests and our operators for their continued support of our recent tinnitus fundraiser in honor of our founder, Kent Taylor. This year was our fifth annual event, and we raised over $1.1 million to the American Tinnitus Association. We are proud to raise funds for research, education, and awareness for this condition that impacts so many people. Finally, 33 years ago, Kent opened the first Texas Roadhouse. While most milestone birthday celebrations end in a zero or a five, at our company, we believe 33 means something special. When we celebrate our birthday, we are also celebrating opportunity, growth, and a commitment to operating at a high level. What started as Kent's dream on a napkin has grown to over 800 locations, three brands, and more than 100,000 Roadies.

I'll close with a happy 33rd birthday to Texas Roadhouse and all of Roadie Nation. So on the count of three, can I get a big yee-haw? 1, 2, 3. Yee-haw!

Michael Bailen (VP of Investor Relations)

That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. If you'd like to withdraw that question, simply press star one again. As a reminder, please limit yourself to one question. Your first question comes from David Palmer with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

David Palmer (Senior Managing Director)

Thank you, and congrats on a great year. I wanted to squeeze-

Jerry Morgan (CEO)

Thank you.

David Palmer (Senior Managing Director)

... you know, two questions, and the one is just sort of-

... you know, about that fourth quarter and the fact that the sales slowed down in December, we heard in the industry that there was some weather dislocation in that month. And so a lot of times when a chain gets caught with slow sales late in the quarter, it's tough to adjust the labor and to sort of save, you know, the budget for the quarter, so to speak. And you did have a higher ratio of labor hours versus traffic than normal for you. So I suspect that was something. You're not one to make excuses, but maybe you could speak to what sort of a drag that noise or even just the fact that that happened late in the quarter might have had on your earnings that quarter.

I'm just wondering also, bigger picture question is, just the long term when it comes to beef inflation, it feels weird this cycle where it's not getting better fast in terms of the number of cattle head out there, and the demand is remaining strong. So it feels like the relief might not be as fast as it was the last time we saw one of these cycles. And I'm just wondering if you're thinking, is there things that you could do besides have food costs get down to 34 to get back to 17+? I mean, you know, you talked about the handhelds, but is there anything that you're thinking about, you know, on the labor side and effectiveness there to really offset some, what might be longer, you know, higher for longer on beef? And thank you.

Michael Bailen (VP of Investor Relations)

Hey, David, it's Michael. Appreciate the question. Hopefully, I can touch on all the topics. You are correct. For the fourth quarter, that labor hours ratio was 68%. For October and November, it was sub 50%. And that, you know, that slowdown that the entire industry saw in December certainly, you know, resulted in an elevated number there. I can tell you, you know, so far, the first quarter, we are back to sub 40%, so that does feel like it was a little bit of an anomaly given the, you know, results from December. And again, December was impacted by both holiday shifts and weather. So, you know, for 2026, I think we believe that we can continue to run in that sub 50% level.

As far as, you know, beef inflation, you know, yes, we're going to have that, you know, pressure here in 2026. Far too early to start predicting what may happen in 2027, but I think the industry would say that it'll be certainly a little early to see the herd, you know, beginning to expand before, you know, late 2027. So, you know, in periods like this, we focus on the dollars and growing the top line, and, you know, that's what flows through. And certainly, more dollars can help you leverage labor, can help you leverage other operating. We're going to stick, you know, stay true to who we are, and, you know, that's really going to be our approach to the business.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from Andrew Charles with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Andrew Charles (Managing Director and Research Analyst)

Great. Thanks. Maybe first, if you can, quantify the impact of Fern on the quarter to date. Obviously a very stellar number, but just curious, you know, with weather, how much that impacted it. And my real question, you know, is really around now that you're focused, now that you've fully rolled out the Digital Kitchen, how does it allow you to go on offense in 2026? You know, can we expect more advertising around carryouts? Could a market test or third-party delivery potentially be something you're focused on? I'd love to learn more about now the Digital Kitchen is over, what this allows you to do. Thank you.

Michael Bailen (VP of Investor Relations)

Hey, Andrew, it's Michael. I'll start, certainly start with the question on, you know, Fern. It definitely, on the first 7 weeks, it had about a 2.5%- impact. Now, we were lapping some weather from last year that offset some of that. So I would say the net impact of weather on the 7 weeks was about 1.5%- for us. And then when it relates to the Digital Kitchen, maybe I'll start there and see if anybody else wants to join in. Certainly, you know, it has led to that calmer, quieter restaurant experience, you know, excuse me, kitchen experience, and I think it does free us up to do more to-go business. And I think we've seen that over the last several quarters.

Don't know if, you know, what else will change fundamentally about how we do the business, but I do believe that our operators know that it allows them to do some more to-go.

Jerry Morgan (CEO)

Yeah, and Andrew, this is Jerry. I would tell you, we will continue to learn as we now have the whole concept on the Digital Kitchen, what all it can do for us other than create a very calm environment that our cooks are really enjoying and just how we execute in the back. So, it will not lead us to looking at a delivery service at this time.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Sara Senatore with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Sara Senatore (Managing Director and Senior Analyst, Equity Research)

Great. Thank you. Just, I guess first, housekeeping. Could you just, let me know what price was for the quarter? And also, you know, I know you talked about taking 1.9% in 2026, at least, you know, the first price. So can you, what should we expect for pricing? What does that mean, on a quarterly basis, pricing looks like? And then I do have a question.

Michael Bailen (VP of Investor Relations)

Yes, Sarah, it's Michael. So we had 3.1% pricing for the fourth quarter. We'll have that same 3.1% here in the first quarter, and then with the 1.9% rolling on, that means we'll have 3.6% in the menu for the second and third quarters before we have conversations about what we, you know, may do at the beginning of the fourth quarter.

Sara Senatore (Managing Director and Senior Analyst, Equity Research)

Okay, great. Thank you. And then I guess, as I think about, you know, the sort of price, cost dynamic, I know, you know, typically you price just for sort of structural changes. But I guess as I think through the year ahead, I guess, is your sense that if part of the reason the traffic growth has accelerated so much, is because you've maintained your pricing kind of substantially below the, the competitive set? Or I guess trying to understand, like, how you think about that elasticity, 'cause certainly the quarter date trends, you know, again, it, including weather, were very impressive. So just the sort of philosophy, you know, as you think about the year ahead.

Jerry Morgan (CEO)

Thanks, Sarah. This is Jerry. I'll start it off a little bit on the pricing. We continue to try to be very conservative. We believe that the full-service dining segment, and we are still well underneath that. So we continue to have great conversation with our operators. We look at it from the lens of our guests and our business and our shareholders and try to find a solid balance. We also know beef is a challenge, and we will continue to look at it. But we focus on a great experience, value in our menu that's built in throughout everything that we have, and it's been a great strategy. And I believe we don't skimp on any of our portions. We really focus on nothing has changed.

All we try to do is get a little bit better for our guest experience.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Jim Salera with Stephens. Please go ahead.

Jim Salera (Equity Research Analyst)

Yes, good afternoon. Thanks for taking our question. I wanted to ask around tax refunds. You know, there's been a lot of conversations around that, potentially driving some incremental consumption, particularly in, you know, I guess, it would be more the second quarter. Do you have any historical precedent for, you know, years where there's larger than expected tax refunds? Do you see kind of an immediate flow-through into the restaurants and, and more engagement? And if so, does that show up just purely in transactions, or do you maybe see higher attachments? Any comments you could provide there would be helpful.

Michael Bailen (VP of Investor Relations)

Hey, hey, Jim, it's Michael. Thanks for the question. I would say, you know, you know, historically, if the timing of the refunds moves around, you know, I think we can see it a little bit in our numbers. So I do think refunds do have the potential, you know, to be you know, a tailwind for us, whether you know, this time around, you know, and who you know, may be getting these refunds will result in a benefit for us to be determined. But typically, yes, when people are getting a larger than normal refund, I would say, it may result in them you know, looking to spend some of that.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of David Tarantino with Baird. Please go ahead.

David Tarantino (Equity Research Analyst)

Hi, good afternoon. Michael, just a clarification on the recent comp trends. Did you have a calendar impact in December from the shift of New Year's Eve? And if so, can you quantify the impact of that on Q4 and on Q1 quarter to date? And then I have a follow-up to that.

Michael Bailen (VP of Investor Relations)

Yeah, David, definitely, we, you know, we had a negative impact from, you know, Christmas shifting and also the timing of our year-end. Those two on the quarter had about a little under... Well, when you combine in Halloween shifting as well, all of those had about a 1% negative impact on the fourth quarter. The first quarter, or I'm sorry, the first seven weeks is benefiting from having New Year's Eve in the first quarter, and that's had about a little over 1% benefit to our first quarter. First seven weeks, excuse me.

David Tarantino (Equity Research Analyst)

Great. That's helpful. So if I net all the impacts from the calendar and the weather, it does look like Q1 has accelerated pretty meaningfully on the traffic side. So I just wanted to get your thoughts on why that's occurred. I guess, you know, I know there's a lot of cross currents in the economy, but I guess, you know, what are your thoughts on what's driving the recent strength?

Jerry Morgan (CEO)

Well, thanks, David. This is Jerry. You know, I do know there was some weather in that timeline, but I really do believe it is just about us operating at a high level. Our operators are out there hustling. We're continuing to provide a great experience for the guests, and we benefited a little bit from some of that. It'd be hard to measure exactly what it is, but I just think we're out there hustling. We're trying to make sure our employees have a great experience coming to work, and our guests are having a great experience dining with us, and we are very appreciative of their business.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Harbor with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Brian Harbour (Equity Analyst)

Yeah, thanks. Good afternoon, guys. Could you comment on just where you are with, you know, commodity contracting at this point? And then, you know, is your expectation that inflation in the first quarter could look, you know, similar to 4Q, and then it sort of comes down ratably from there? Could you help us a little bit on that?

Michael Bailen (VP of Investor Relations)

Sure, Brian, it's Michael. I would. You know, as far as locked, you know, we're certainly more locked on fixed price in the first half of the year, probably about 65% locked first half of the year, and, you know, only about 25% in the back half of the year. And that's probably not abnormal, you know, over the more recent years from that standpoint. As far as the cadence of the commodity inflation, I would—you know, we mentioned that the first half of the year would be. You're probably above our 7% guidance. I'd say within that, Q1 is probably in line with the guidance, and Q2 is probably where we expect to have our highest commodity inflation of the year.

And, you know, that could be in the very high single digit level. And then it should start to come down in the back half of the year.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Peter Saleh with BTIG. Please go ahead.

Peter Saleh (Equity Research Analyst)

Great, thanks. Jerry, I wanted to ask real quick on the expanding test of the handheld ordering in 2026. I think you guys have been testing this for, you know, since 2024. I think it was in about 40 restaurants. So can you maybe a little bit talk about what you're seeing, how much this test will expand, and what you expect to see? And then, Michael, if you could just comment on the G&A, and how that goes throughout the year. I think you said a low double-digit increase, so any details you could provide there would be helpful. Thanks.

Jerry Morgan (CEO)

Yeah. Thanks, Peter. This is Jerry. On the handhelds, we did absolutely have a test out there. We have pulled back on it just a little bit to rewrite some software. We have had it in a store right before the holidays and learned a lot of things. We paused it for a minute. We now have it back in that store, and we've just got a couple of more tweaks to make before I think we can offer it up to the operators. There's no doubt that the handheld and technology side of it does make us a little bit quicker when it allows the server to take the order at the table to press send, and obviously, from an order accuracy standpoint. There's a lot of things that we really like about it.

What we have to have is it to be reliable, and so we're just working through a few more things. We'll continue to get it out there and test, and then I think later on in the year, we should be ready to kind of offer it up for our operators to opt in if they wanna do that. But we have made a lot of progress, and I feel good that a lot of focus on it right now.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes-

Keith Humpich (Chief Accounting and Financial Services Officer)

Yeah, and Peter, this is Keith. On the G&A, I think, you know, we guided to low double-digit increases, and I think you can pretty much see that throughout the year, evenly throughout the year.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Farmer with Gordon Haskett. Please go ahead.

Jeff Farmer (Managing Director)

Thanks. You did touch on it, but with all the moving pieces, how should we be thinking about the restaurant-level margin for the full year of 2026?

Michael Bailen (VP of Investor Relations)

Hey, Jeff, this is, you know, Michael. Obviously, there are a lot of moving pieces. I would say, you know, with 7% commodity inflation, and if that's where we end up, and you know, with the pricing that you know, we're talking about taking and assuming that, you know, some of that, you know, not all of it flows through the check, I think it's gonna be a challenge to get leverage on the cost of sales line. Now, I do believe there is opportunity on the other components of restaurant margin, you know, but that may not fully offset. So it is certainly possible that restaurant margin percent, you know, remain under pressure.

But, the restaurant margin dollars, you know, certainly have a path, both on an absolute and a dollar per store week basis, to go higher, and that's really where more of our focus is, right now during this cattle cycle.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Bernstein with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Jeffrey Bernstein (Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thank you very much. Jerry, just curious, your updated thoughts on Bubba's. Obviously, it's taking on a bigger role in this unit growth. Needless to say, when your, your big brother, Texas Roadhouse, your results probably won't look as good in the short term. I'm wondering if you can, just because it is in a different category, do you think that one day, if you do the same focus on Bubba's that you do on Texas, it'll have the same level of resilience that Texas has had? Or Bubba's may be in a different category and a different position where it'll never achieve something similar. Just trying to get your sense on Bubba's outlook. Obviously, you're accelerating that growth the next few years, but how you envision that brand long-term relative to Texas? Thank you.

Jerry Morgan (CEO)

Thanks, Jeff. Yeah, I mean, I see Bubba's... I really like to compare it to the competitive set that it goes in it. Obviously, at $6.4 million average unit volume, we have a lot of confidence in what Bubba's is doing and I am real proud of where we're at from that.

We have done a lot of great things, getting some of the cost out of the building to make it a little more profitability or profitable for our operators as we go forward, and we'll continue to look at ways to offset some of the inflation and other sides of it for that business. But yeah, we'll ramp up the growth on it. We'll get to approximately 10 this year, and that's what's on schedule for the following year. And we believe that it will continue to add a lot of value to our company, as we go forward from a sales and profit standpoint.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Jake Bartlett with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

Jake Bartlett (Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thanks for taking the question. Yeah, mine is about mix, and there's two kind of mixes here that I want to ask about. One is on COGS. Your COGS have been higher than we would think, or one would think, you know, given the pricing and the commodity inflation. You've mentioned that's a shift towards steak. I think that differential increased in the fourth quarter. So the question is: What should we expect from that dynamic in 2026? I mean, is there a possibility that that reverses out? You know, should we continue to expect maybe an increased pressure on COGS from that dynamic?

And then if I look at just mix within check, it increased in the fourth quarter, so a little bit kind of confusing to have that increase or get more negative, yet, you know, the COGS impact getting bigger. So the question on mix, what is driving the negative mix within same-store sales, and should that continue? What are the dynamics there going into 2026? Thank you.

Michael Bailen (VP of Investor Relations)

Yeah. Thanks, Jake. This is Michael. You know, first on that mix within our food cost, it was lower in the fourth quarter than it had been in the third. It probably was 30, maybe 35 basis points of pressure, where it had been, you know, over 50 basis points in the third quarter. From what we're seeing so far, you know, this year, it does seem like we have lapped a lot of that trade up to the steak category. That doesn't mean that it couldn't reaccelerate, but right now, my assumption is maybe 10-15 basis points of pressure, you know, coming from that, call it, usage line within the cost of sales.

As far as the product mix, you are right, it did step up a little bit in the fourth quarter, and we saw that trend higher as we moved through the year, through the last several months of the quarter. Some of that, I think, more of that came from the to-go side of it, and the growth of our to-go putting a little bit of pressure, more pressure on that line. As I've looked at the beginning of this year, some of that pressure has abated. The alcohol is still negative, but not as negative as it was at any point last year. So some encouraging signs within our mix. We continue within the dining room to see positive mix in entrees, appetizers, soft beverages, mocktails.

But when the to-go business is growing at a slightly faster rate, and that comes with a lower average check, it does continue to put a little bit of pressure on mix.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Jacob Aiken-Phillips with Melius Research. Please go ahead.

Jacob Aiken-Phillips (VP Equity Research)

Hi, everyone. Good afternoon. So I just wanted to ask about share gains. I mean, you've shown super consistent traffic strength, and peers have shown less so, and I mean, restaurants, food, fast casual, QSR, et cetera. What portion of the traffic outperformance do you view as structural share gains versus, like, people trading between channels or in and out? And how should we view that durability if the consumer weakens further?

Jerry Morgan (CEO)

Yeah, Jacob, I can start. I mean, it's hard to predict all of that. I mean, we open up our doors, and we serve our guests and represent our communities all across America and the world, and I think the guest has to make a choice. The choice is: Where do they get quality food? Where do they get great value? And where do they get hospitality at a high level? I do believe that that's where we continue to win. That reputation that we have in the industry for consistently providing a great service, great food, and what we call legendary food and legendary service, and that just resonates with our consumer.

you know, they wanna spend money, but they wanna spend money where they're getting a great product with value, and I believe that's where we settle in nicely.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Dennis Geiger with UBS. Please go ahead.

Dennis Geiger (Executive Director)

Great. Thanks, guys, and welcome, Mike. Just wondering if you guys could break down the G&A guidance, the G&A increase a bit more. Is that increase coming from? Is it a compensation dynamic? Is it related to the acquisitions? Anything more you could say there? And then, I guess, longer term, does anything change on how you think about G&A beyond this year? I know you've kind of given some targets in the past for the long term as a percent basis. Thank you.

Keith Humpich (Chief Accounting and Financial Services Officer)

Hey, Dennis, it's Keith. Thanks for the question. Yeah, so in December, we completed our 2026 budget process that included our finalizing our incentive plans for the year.

So as part of that, we did increase our G&A forecast, and this was mainly due to the new long-term management equity grants that we announced in late December, and then also some higher forecasted incentive compensation. You know, I, I can tell you that when we look at G&A as a percentage of sales, though, you know, I think we see—we, we see it coming in very, very similar and consistent to what our recent years have been, and, and we're comfortable at that level, so.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Andy Barish with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Andy Barish (Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, guys. One question and a quick follow-up. Just, can you give us a little better sense on sort of what the guest management software is potentially driving this year? Is it, is it table, you know, table yields or wait time quotes, or how is that kind of up and running?

Jerry Morgan (CEO)

Thanks, Andy. This is Jerry. You know, I think it helps in all categories to be able to manage your floor plan with the amount of consumers that are on the, a wait list, and for them to be able to navigate a little bit on their own to get on the wait list and allowing us to, if folks aren't there. So there's so many components that can help us be faster, not only in managing how table turns work, how we get guests on the list, how we get them sat, and then how do we accurately quote them when we're on longer waits. And we just went through a tremendous weekend over Valentine's Day, and what a success! And I think it all contributes to the ability to handle that kind of volume.

So we believe that there's so many things that you just little things that all add up to additional success. So that's about all I can share on that, but it's about really being bigger, faster and stronger and getting more people sat accurately from that standpoint. But thank you, Andy.

Andy Barish (Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, very helpful. And then on the headquarters acquisition, is that a benefit to G&A this year versus last, but maybe I'm thinking about it wrong.

Keith Humpich (Chief Accounting and Financial Services Officer)

No, Andy, this is Keith. Yeah, you are correct. It will definitely be a benefit this, for us this year.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Jon Tower with Citigroup. Please go ahead. John, your line is open.

Jon Tower (Equity Research Analyst)

There we go. Sorry about that. Yeah, thank you. Jerry, just a quick question for you. I, you know, the past year, year and a half or so, you've focused a lot of some time on innovating around and focusing on beverages on the menu. I think mocktails, dirty sodas are a couple of things, and then having the $5 draft on tap and messaging that to the guests. It's. Is there anything else on your menu that you see today as an opportunity, either, you know, you're not currently—it's not either on the menu today or it's something that's underperforming your internal expectations or anything you're hearing from your operators that says, "Hey, this would be a nice area we should be, you know, focusing more on?

Jerry Morgan (CEO)

Well, thanks, John. Yeah, I, I think on the beverage side, I mean, obviously, mocktails have become very popular out there, dirty sodas. The 5-day, $5 all-day every day, it is about the beer, but it's really also about that margarita. And, you know, really, Roadhouse was built on an ice-cold beer and a legendary margarita, and having that 10 $5 10-ounce margarita back in the system has been really, really popular. And on the food side, I mean, we're always looking at some innovative ideas and, and talking with our operators about trying different things, whether it be a menu item, whether it be the ability to add on a, a, a different kind of smother or, or even a Sidekick of some sort. So we, we are constantly out there looking at things. We have some things that are out there in test.

We'll continue to monitor and look at them, and make a decision down the road if we think it goes regionally or nationwide, could be impactful. So yes, we're constantly kind of testing and looking and talking with our operators about what we might look at on the menu. We don't have a lot that underperform at the level that they would be replaced, so it'd be a tough one for us to take anything off. It really have to be a superstar to get added to it.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Strelzik with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Andrew Strelzik (Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. Going back to the beef topic, and appreciate some of the color you gave on the cattle cycle dynamics. You know, there's been some optimism, I guess, around beef inflation easing at some point in 2026 because of demand destruction at retail. So I guess I was curious if you've seen any evidence in any of the data that you've looked at or any of your discussions around that dynamic that maybe does offer a little bit of optimism as the year progresses. Thanks.

Michael Bailen (VP of Investor Relations)

Hey, Andrew, it's Michael. Thanks for the question. I mean, I think we've certainly seen at retail some trade away from beef, you know, over the last several quarters to, you know, whether it be pork or chicken, other, other proteins. And so that has, you know, been in effect. To the level that that may or may not continue, it is hard, you know, for us to know. And, you know, we aren't trying. In our forecast, we aren't trying to predict what the demand side might be. So if there was, further, call it demand destruction or trade away from beef, then maybe there is some potential, you know, for our numbers, you know, to come down. But, a lot of things, you know, to learn about there.

What we do know, you know, what we do know is what's going on with the size of the herd and what that takes for a rebuild. So the demand will really play into how things fully play out.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Rahul Krotthapalli with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Rahul Krotthapalli (VP, Equity Research)

Good afternoon, guys. Can you update us on the build cost inflation and how it is tracking at both Roadhouse and Bubba's, and especially how we are thinking about cash-on-cash returns for both these concepts as we go forward? I have a follow-up on the company versus franchise mix. I've seen this slowly pick up over time from low 80s company mix to the high 80s we are currently. Is there a conscious goal to get to a certain level over time? Can you share some of your thoughts here? Thank you.

Michael Bailen (VP of Investor Relations)

Yeah, sure. Hey, this is Michael. I'll start with the investment costs. So on the Roadhouse side, you know, we are expecting, you know, our average all-in investment costs, that includes 10x rent, you know, factor, you know, will be increasing to around, you know, $8.9 million. We think we're around $8.3 million-$8.4 million here in 2025. Some of that increase is coming from higher rents. Certainly, you know, there are, you know, it is not getting any cheaper to build a building. But we also have a handful of restaurants in California that we will be opening in 2026, and that probably, you know, adds a few hundred thousand dollars to that cost for Roadhouse.

On the Bubba's side, you know, the opposite is expected. We're expecting to see a, you know, maybe a little more than $500,000 reduction in our investment costs, going from around, you know, $9 million down to $8.5 million, $8.4 million for 2026. We've done a lot of work on the building and getting the prototype to where we want it to be. And we also have a handful of conversions, you know, that we are gonna be doing. So taking an existing building and turning it into a Bubba's, and we've done two of those so far that have opened and definitely seen some cost savings by doing that.

So, we are hopeful and expectant that, you know, that can continue with some more of these conversions. And as far as returns, you know, we look at it more as an IRR. We're targeting a mid-teen IRR for our new restaurants, and I'd say we are achieving or exceeding that expectation as an overall portfolio.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Vaccaro with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Brian Vaccaro (Managing Director, Equity Analyst)

Thanks, and good evening. Most of them might have been asked, but just two nitpicks, if I could. Within the other OpEx line, I'm curious what you're seeing, just from an underlying inflation perspective within that line, and any changes in the outlook related to utilities or other areas we should be mindful of. And on the acquisition of the 5 units for $72 million, was there acquired real estate within that acquisition price? Thank you.

Michael Bailen (VP of Investor Relations)

Yeah. Hey, Brian, I'll just start with the second one first. There is no acquired real estate within that acquisition price for those California stores. As far as the other OpEx, you know, I think certainly, you know, there is an expectation that utility costs will continue to go higher. But I do think there is still opportunity to get some potentially to get some leverage, another op in 2026. Probably low single-digit growth in dollars per store week is probably the best guidance I can give you. Don't think I have an inflationary percentage to throw out at this time. So, we do think we're gonna continue to see some cost pressures, but nothing other than utilities too out of the ordinary.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Gregory Francfort with Guggenheim. Please go ahead.

Gregory Francfort (Managing Director, Senior Restaurant Analyst)

Hey, maybe sticking with expenses, just labor inflation running under 3% this quarter. I guess, is there anything that maybe there were less overtime hours just given the sales? Or, I guess I'm trying to figure out why that might ramp next year or, I guess, this year in 2026. Thanks.

Michael Bailen (VP of Investor Relations)

Yeah, I mean, there are several components. You know, we talk about a wage and other inflation. And so, you know, the wage component, certainly we have seen that trend down and stabilize, and that's kind of the expectation that we have into 2026. But we do think that there's still going to be some pressures on insurance costs and other components within labor that may be a little bit higher than what we saw in 2025. So, you know, we guided the 3%-4% wage and other. I think the underlying wage component is probably down year-over-year, and you know, the overall could be a little bit down versus 2025.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Jim Sanderson with North Coast Research. Please go ahead.

Jim Sanderson (Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, thanks for the question. I wanted to talk a little bit more about pricing. Given the 3.6 you'll have in the second quarter, how do you see yourself positioned with respect to, you know, top competitors, if you feel that your value gap is just as strong or compelling? And maybe if you have any consumer feedback about how the consumer perceives the brand on a value basis, if that's improving.

Jerry Morgan (CEO)

Thanks, Jim. You know, absolutely, we will keep a close eye on any conversation that comes up, but obviously, after these first seven weeks, as we continue to roll. But, you know, again, we're built on a conservative approach to pricing. We still believe we're well under our competitors and a full-service dining average, 12 months rolling. So we will continue to look at that. But if we get feedback, we absolutely will consider and talk with that. But we really feel like we've got such a great value, and we're continuing to operate at a high level, and that's the approach that we'll continue to take, and we feel great about it.

Operator (participant)

That concludes our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the conference back over to Jerry Morgan for closing comments.

Jerry Morgan (CEO)

Thank you, all, for your time with us tonight. To Roadie Nation, stay focused on high-level hospitality. Let's go, Roadhouse!

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.