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    Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)

    Q1 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Apr 23, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$157.90Last close (May 2, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$170.10Open (May 3, 2024)
    Price Change
    $12.20(+7.73%)
    • Margin Expansion Potential: The company reported 17.4% restaurant margin in Q1, with management targeting a long-term goal of 17%-18% and expecting similar or even improved margin expansion in subsequent quarters.
    • Operational Efficiency and Digital Initiatives: Positive feedback on the digital kitchen conversion and improved labor productivity—such as staffing stability leading to approximately 50% growth rate in hours relative to traffic—suggests that ongoing operational enhancements are helping to mitigate cost pressures.
    • Robust Expansion Pipeline: The company remains confident in opening approximately 30 company-owned restaurants across its three brands this year, along with plans for strengthening its franchise presence (e.g., Jaggers), which supports future revenue and earnings growth.
    • Rising Commodity Inflation Risk: Management cautioned that commodity inflation is expected to increase in the back half of the year—with Q2 anticipated to be higher than Q1 and Q3/Q4 hovering above the full-year average—posing a potential threat to margins.
    • New Store Performance Concerns: New stores have shown an 8% decline in average weekly sales (noted as the third consecutive quarter of declines), which could signal challenges in sustaining growth from recent openings.
    • G&A Expense Pressure: Ongoing investments in technology and anticipated extra accruals for bonuses and compensation may make it difficult to achieve operating leverage on G&A expenses in upcoming quarters.
    1. Margin Outlook
      Q: Progress toward long-term margin target?
      A: Management reported Q1 restaurant margins at 17.4%, squarely within the target range of 17–18% with expectations for modest year‐over‐year expansion despite upcoming commodity pressures.

    2. Commodity Inflation
      Q: What is expected quarterly commodity inflation?
      A: They expect Q2 commodity inflation to be higher than Q1 yet still below the full year average, with Q3 and Q4 finishing slightly above a 3% annual estimate.

    3. Beef Supply
      Q: How will beef supply affect costs?
      A: While an initially favorable beef supply lowered costs, management anticipates tightening later that could drive higher beef costs, with non‐beef items remaining flat.

    4. Future Pricing
      Q: When is the next pricing increase planned?
      A: They will review pricing feedback from operators around August–September and consider adjustments in October while taking a conservative approach.

    5. Jaggers/G&A
      Q: Will Jaggers openings and G&A leverage improve?
      A: With limited new Jaggers openings this year, management noted that G&A leverage might be harder to gain in Q2–Q3 due to ongoing technology investments and bonus accruals.

    6. CapEx Cost
      Q: Can new store capital costs be reduced?
      A: They expect to maintain near-constant capital investment averaging around $8M per new Roadhouse, indicating little change in CapEx cost structure.

    7. Labor Productivity
      Q: What drives labor productivity gains?
      A: Improvements stem from more stable staffing and longer-tenured teams, which reduce turnover and enhance operational efficiency.

    8. Capital Allocation
      Q: How will capital be balanced across brands?
      A: The focus remains on core Roadhouse growth, with ongoing pipeline development for Bubba’s and accelerated franchise-backed Jaggers deployments, though no specific percentages were disclosed.

    9. New Store Sales
      Q: What explains new stores' weekly sales trends?
      A: New stores demonstrated lower average weekly sales partly due to a high-performance anomaly from California outlets last year, yet overall performance remains satisfactory.

    10. Unit Openings
      Q: Will under-construction units open by year-end?
      A: Management is confident in achieving roughly 30 company-owned openings this year by converting under construction units on schedule.

    11. Operating Expenses
      Q: Any changes in other operating expenses?
      A: Expense increases were driven by higher general liability adjustments and sales-linked costs, while digital kitchen conversions are proceeding with notably positive feedback.

    12. Brand Comparison
      Q: Why is there a gap between brands?
      A: The Texas Roadhouse brand benefits from a longer market legacy, whereas Bubba’s operates on a smaller scale with lower same-store comp growth, though both generate solid returns.

    13. Mix & Pricing
      Q: What was the menu pricing impact?
      A: Menu pricing held steady at 4.9%, with an initial negative mix of 80 basis points narrowing to 20 basis points in early Q2.

    14. Bubba’s Margins
      Q: What margins are planned for Bubba’s?
      A: Management is targeting margins in the 17–18% range for Bubba’s, mirroring Roadhouse, with strong local operator efforts driving improvements.

    15. Commodity Contracts
      Q: How fixed-price are beef purchases?
      A: Only a small fraction of beef is purchased under fixed-price contracts, leaving the majority subject to market volatility.

    16. Staffing Efficiency
      Q: How are staffing hours tracking with traffic?
      A: They aim to maintain staffing growth around 50% of traffic increases, ensuring operational efficiency as customer numbers rise.

    17. Off-Premise Trends
      Q: How did off-premise sales perform?
      A: Off-premise, or to-go, sales expanded robustly, particularly in later periods of Q1, reflecting improved execution and guest convenience.

    18. Competitive Advantage
      Q: Can TRH attract peers’ customers?
      A: Management remains confident that their strong focus on quality, value, and service will appeal to value-seeking customers, especially as macro conditions tighten.

    19. Mix Trends
      Q: What drove sequential mix improvement?
      A: Sequentially, mix improved as negatives in alcohol and other add-on items flattened, underscoring the brand’s enduring everyday value proposition.

    20. Extra Week Benefit
      Q: What is the EPS boost from the extra week?
      A: The additional operating week in the 53-week year is expected to boost EPS by roughly 4%, with some margin variability.

    21. Butcher House
      Q: What’s the aim of the Butcher House initiative?
      A: The initiative is intended primarily to raise brand awareness, rather than to drive frequency or provide new customer data.

    22. Bubba’s Breakdown
      Q: What are the comp details for Bubba’s?
      A: Management did not offer a detailed breakdown, only noting that Bubba’s comp performance is lower than Roadhouse’s due to scale differences.

    23. Monthly Trends
      Q: Any caution for monthly sales comparisons?
      A: Typically, May outperforms April while June mirrors April, with regional sales trends remaining largely consistent across geographies.

    24. Digital Payment
      Q: What share uses digital table payment?
      A: Approximately 80% of guests are using the digital, pay-at-the-table system, enhancing transaction speed and convenience.

    25. Event Importance
      Q: Are holiday events critical to performance?
      A: Yes, key events like the Triple Crown and Mother’s Day are viewed as significant drivers of foot traffic and sales, playing an important role in overall performance.

    26. Easter Impact
      Q: Did the Easter shift affect sales?
      A: No, because Easter fell squarely within the reporting period, it did not impact same-store sales performance.

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