Q1 2024 Earnings Summary
- Margin Expansion Potential: The company reported 17.4% restaurant margin in Q1, with management targeting a long-term goal of 17%-18% and expecting similar or even improved margin expansion in subsequent quarters.
- Operational Efficiency and Digital Initiatives: Positive feedback on the digital kitchen conversion and improved labor productivity—such as staffing stability leading to approximately 50% growth rate in hours relative to traffic—suggests that ongoing operational enhancements are helping to mitigate cost pressures.
- Robust Expansion Pipeline: The company remains confident in opening approximately 30 company-owned restaurants across its three brands this year, along with plans for strengthening its franchise presence (e.g., Jaggers), which supports future revenue and earnings growth.
- Rising Commodity Inflation Risk: Management cautioned that commodity inflation is expected to increase in the back half of the year—with Q2 anticipated to be higher than Q1 and Q3/Q4 hovering above the full-year average—posing a potential threat to margins.
- New Store Performance Concerns: New stores have shown an 8% decline in average weekly sales (noted as the third consecutive quarter of declines), which could signal challenges in sustaining growth from recent openings.
- G&A Expense Pressure: Ongoing investments in technology and anticipated extra accruals for bonuses and compensation may make it difficult to achieve operating leverage on G&A expenses in upcoming quarters.
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Margin Outlook
Q: Progress toward long-term margin target?
A: Management reported Q1 restaurant margins at 17.4%, squarely within the target range of 17–18% with expectations for modest year‐over‐year expansion despite upcoming commodity pressures. -
Commodity Inflation
Q: What is expected quarterly commodity inflation?
A: They expect Q2 commodity inflation to be higher than Q1 yet still below the full year average, with Q3 and Q4 finishing slightly above a 3% annual estimate. -
Beef Supply
Q: How will beef supply affect costs?
A: While an initially favorable beef supply lowered costs, management anticipates tightening later that could drive higher beef costs, with non‐beef items remaining flat. -
Future Pricing
Q: When is the next pricing increase planned?
A: They will review pricing feedback from operators around August–September and consider adjustments in October while taking a conservative approach. -
Jaggers/G&A
Q: Will Jaggers openings and G&A leverage improve?
A: With limited new Jaggers openings this year, management noted that G&A leverage might be harder to gain in Q2–Q3 due to ongoing technology investments and bonus accruals. -
CapEx Cost
Q: Can new store capital costs be reduced?
A: They expect to maintain near-constant capital investment averaging around $8M per new Roadhouse, indicating little change in CapEx cost structure. -
Labor Productivity
Q: What drives labor productivity gains?
A: Improvements stem from more stable staffing and longer-tenured teams, which reduce turnover and enhance operational efficiency. -
Capital Allocation
Q: How will capital be balanced across brands?
A: The focus remains on core Roadhouse growth, with ongoing pipeline development for Bubba’s and accelerated franchise-backed Jaggers deployments, though no specific percentages were disclosed. -
New Store Sales
Q: What explains new stores' weekly sales trends?
A: New stores demonstrated lower average weekly sales partly due to a high-performance anomaly from California outlets last year, yet overall performance remains satisfactory. -
Unit Openings
Q: Will under-construction units open by year-end?
A: Management is confident in achieving roughly 30 company-owned openings this year by converting under construction units on schedule. -
Operating Expenses
Q: Any changes in other operating expenses?
A: Expense increases were driven by higher general liability adjustments and sales-linked costs, while digital kitchen conversions are proceeding with notably positive feedback. -
Brand Comparison
Q: Why is there a gap between brands?
A: The Texas Roadhouse brand benefits from a longer market legacy, whereas Bubba’s operates on a smaller scale with lower same-store comp growth, though both generate solid returns. -
Mix & Pricing
Q: What was the menu pricing impact?
A: Menu pricing held steady at 4.9%, with an initial negative mix of 80 basis points narrowing to 20 basis points in early Q2. -
Bubba’s Margins
Q: What margins are planned for Bubba’s?
A: Management is targeting margins in the 17–18% range for Bubba’s, mirroring Roadhouse, with strong local operator efforts driving improvements. -
Commodity Contracts
Q: How fixed-price are beef purchases?
A: Only a small fraction of beef is purchased under fixed-price contracts, leaving the majority subject to market volatility. -
Staffing Efficiency
Q: How are staffing hours tracking with traffic?
A: They aim to maintain staffing growth around 50% of traffic increases, ensuring operational efficiency as customer numbers rise. -
Off-Premise Trends
Q: How did off-premise sales perform?
A: Off-premise, or to-go, sales expanded robustly, particularly in later periods of Q1, reflecting improved execution and guest convenience. -
Competitive Advantage
Q: Can TRH attract peers’ customers?
A: Management remains confident that their strong focus on quality, value, and service will appeal to value-seeking customers, especially as macro conditions tighten. -
Mix Trends
Q: What drove sequential mix improvement?
A: Sequentially, mix improved as negatives in alcohol and other add-on items flattened, underscoring the brand’s enduring everyday value proposition. -
Extra Week Benefit
Q: What is the EPS boost from the extra week?
A: The additional operating week in the 53-week year is expected to boost EPS by roughly 4%, with some margin variability. -
Butcher House
Q: What’s the aim of the Butcher House initiative?
A: The initiative is intended primarily to raise brand awareness, rather than to drive frequency or provide new customer data. -
Bubba’s Breakdown
Q: What are the comp details for Bubba’s?
A: Management did not offer a detailed breakdown, only noting that Bubba’s comp performance is lower than Roadhouse’s due to scale differences. -
Monthly Trends
Q: Any caution for monthly sales comparisons?
A: Typically, May outperforms April while June mirrors April, with regional sales trends remaining largely consistent across geographies. -
Digital Payment
Q: What share uses digital table payment?
A: Approximately 80% of guests are using the digital, pay-at-the-table system, enhancing transaction speed and convenience. -
Event Importance
Q: Are holiday events critical to performance?
A: Yes, key events like the Triple Crown and Mother’s Day are viewed as significant drivers of foot traffic and sales, playing an important role in overall performance. -
Easter Impact
Q: Did the Easter shift affect sales?
A: No, because Easter fell squarely within the reporting period, it did not impact same-store sales performance.
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