Textron - Q2 2024
July 18, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Textron 2Q 2024 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press one, then zero. If you should require assistance during the call, please press star, then zero. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Vice President, Investor Relations, Mr. Dave Rosenberg. Please go ahead.
David Rosenberg (Head of Investor Relations)
Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to mention we will be discussing future estimates and expectations during our call today. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risk factors, which are detailed in our SEC filings and also in today's press release. On the call today, we have Scott Donnelly, Textron's Chairman and CEO, and Frank Connor, our Chief Financial Officer. Our earnings call presentation can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website. Revenues in the quarter were $3.5 billion, up from $3.4 billion in last year's 2Q. During this year's 2Q, adjusted income from continuing operations was $1.54 per share, compared to $1.46 per share in last year's 2Q.
Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions totaled $320 million in the quarter, compared to $242 million in the 2Q of 2023. With that, I'll turn the call over to Scott.
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, David. Good morning, everyone. Aviation had higher segment revenues of $1.5 billion, generating a profit of $195 million, up $24 million from the 2Q of 2023. We delivered 44 commercial turboprops, up from 37 last year, and 42 jets, down from 44 in last year's 2Q, while aftermarket revenues grew 13%. Aviation continued to see strong demand across all product lines. Backlog ended the quarter at $7.5 billion, up $118 million from the 1Q of this year. In the quarter, Aviation began deliveries of the King Air 260 under the Multi-Engine Training Systems contract for the US Navy. To date, we've been awarded 35 aircraft of a possible 64 on the program. Also, during the quarter, Aviation certified a third variant of the Cessna SkyCourier.
The Combi version allows operators to transport passengers and cargo simultaneously. Combined with the previously certified passenger and cargo variants, this latest variant continues to demonstrate the versatility of the aircraft to our customers. In June, Aviation completed the first flight of a Cessna Citation Ascend. The aircraft is the first conforming production flight test aircraft and represents a significant milestone for the program. To date, we have completed over 400 hours of flight testing. At Bell, revenues and profit in the quarter were up as compared to the 2Q last year. On the commercial side, Bell delivered 32 helicopters, down from 35 in last year's 2Q. Moving to military, Bell completed the FLRAA Preliminary Design Review, while also continuing to release engineering drawings and place orders for long-lead material as the program continues to ramp.
In the quarter, Bell was downselected as one of two companies for the next phase of DARPA's Speed and Runway-Independent Technologies X-plane program to create a prototype high-speed vertical takeoff and landing aircraft for the U.S. military. This program builds on Bell's success as the leader in tiltrotor technology. Textron Systems realized higher revenues while continuing to pursue new program opportunities in the quarter. Systems was awarded Options three and four for the FTUAS program in the 2Q. This award includes the delivery of an Aerosonde Hybrid Quad system to the U.S. Army for test and evaluation. As part of the Army's Robotic Combat Vehicle competition, we announced a collaboration with Kodiak Robotics. Kodiak will integrate its industry-leading autonomous system into a Textron Systems purpose-built, uncrewed military vehicle to demonstrate the autonomous operations later in 2024. Moving to industrial, we experienced lower revenues and operating profit in the quarter.
As expected, we continue to see softer demand in our consumer and automotive end markets. We continue to execute on our cost reduction plan to position the cost structure for a lower volume environment. As a result, we saw sequential margin improvement in Q2 and expect to see this improvement in the second half of 2024. Moving to Aviation, during the quarter, we completed the acquisition of Amazilia Aerospace. The Amazilia team has expertise in digital flight controls, flight guidance, and vehicle management systems for manned and unmanned aircraft. We plan on integrating their products and capabilities into our new platforms, such as the Nuuva and Surveyor. Nuuva program reached a significant milestone with the completion of Vehicle One assembly. The prototype vehicle has entered ground testing, which supports anticipated hover flight later this year. With that, I'll turn the call over to Frank.
Frank T Connor (CFO)
Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone. Let's review how each of the segments contributed, starting with Textron Aviation. Revenues at Textron Aviation of $1.5 billion were up $113 million from the 2Q of 2023, reflecting higher pricing of $57 million and higher volume and mix of $56 million. Segment profit was $195 million in the 2Q, up $24 million from a year ago, due to higher volume and mix of $35 million and favorable pricing net of inflation of $22 million, partially offset by an unfavorable impact from performance of $33 million. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $7.5 billion, up $118 million from the 1Q.
Moving to Bell, revenues were $794 million, up $93 million from last year, primarily due to higher military volume of $104 million as we continue to ramp the FLRAA program. Segment profit of $82 million was up $17 million from last year's 2Q, largely due to a favorable impact from performance of $39 million, which included lower research and development costs, partially offset by mix. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $4.2 billion. At Textron Systems, revenues were $323 million, up $17 million from last year's 2Q, largely due to higher volume of $14 million. Segment profit of $35 million was down $2 million from a year ago. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $1.7 billion.
... Industrial revenues were $914 million, down $112 million from last year's 2Q, mainly due to lower volume and mix of $119 million. Segment profit of $42 million was down $37 million from the 2Q of 2023, primarily due to lower volume and mix. Textron eAviation segment revenues were $9 million, and segment loss was $18 million in the 2Q of 2024, compared to a segment loss of $12 million in the 2Q of 2023. Finance segment revenues were $12 million, and profit was $7 million. Moving below segment profit, corporate expenses were $17 million. Net interest, interest expense for the manufacturing group was $20 million. LIFO inventory provision was $27 million. Intangible asset amortization was $9 million.
Special charges related to the previously announced restructuring were $13 million, and the non-service components of pension and post-retirement income were $66 million. In the quarter, we repurchased approximately 4.1 million shares, returning $358 million in cash to shareholders. Year to date, we have repurchased approximately 7.7 million shares, returning $675 million in cash to shareholders. That concludes from our prepared remarks. So Greg, we can open the line for questions.
Operator (participant)
Okay, ladies and gentlemen, if you'd like to ask a question, please press one then zero on your telephone keypad. You may withdraw your question at any time by repeating the one zero command. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up the handset before pressing the numbers. Once again, if you have a question, please press one, then zero at this time. And one moment, please, for your first question. Your first question comes from the line of Peter Arment from Baird. Please go ahead.
Peter Arment (Analyst)
Yeah, good morning, Scott and Frank. Nice results. Scott, you've booked a bill over one in aviation. Maybe you could just give us a little color on what you're seeing in the market environment and any color on pricing and what aftermarket also did in the quarter.
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Sure, Peter. Yeah, look, I think the end market continues to be robust. We're seeing strong demand in jets, turboprops. It's pretty much, you know, across all models and across, you know, the whole family of products, which is great. Strong response to a lot of the upgrades that we've done here recently in terms of existing models, and obviously, we'll expect, you know, as we go, you know, the back half of the year to see, you know, continued strength in new launches like the Ascend and such. So I would say, you know, again, as much as we've seen for the last couple of years, we're still sort of targeting that one-to-one area, but robust, robust demand, which is great. Aircraft are flying, so, you know, we continue to see, you know, strength in the service business as well.
13% is particularly strong, you know, in the quarter, but, you know, we feel good about, you know, where that's, where that's been performing. So again, across I think the whole portfolio is, is, doing pretty good in terms of the end market.
Peter Arment (Analyst)
That's great. And then just a quick one for Frank. Your CapEx, I think you're $140 million for the first half of the year. I think your guidance is $425 million. Just so, what is the—are you coming in at a slower pace or than kind of the guidance or plans to step up? And outside of maybe FLRAA, what are the main drivers of the step-up? Thanks.
Frank T Connor (CFO)
Well, we'll continue to see growth in the second half of the year, obviously, as you know, reflected in those numbers. We're, we're a little slower in the first half than we expected. We tend to be a bit back end loaded in CapEx, though, so we will see growth in the second half. There's probably a little opportunity in that kind of full year number, given the pace, but, for now, you know, that's the number we'll stick with.
Peter Arment (Analyst)
Appreciate the color. Thanks, guys.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of David Strauss from Barclays. Please go ahead.
David Strauss (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
Thanks. Good morning.
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Good morning.
David Strauss (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
Scott, morning. Scott, can you just give us an update on, supply chain at both, Aviation and Bell?
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Sure, David. Look, it's still, you know, problematic. There's fewer problems probably than we used to have, but there are still parts that are, you know, from suppliers that continue to give us, you know, some heartache with late deliveries, and that does, you know, create some of these issues around, you know, flow in the factory and rework and out of sequence kind of things. But, you know, we've been managing through that, unfortunately, now for a number of years. It does continue to drag on our performance, you know, in the aviation business, particularly. You know, the performance numbers continue to see factory inefficiencies that we would like to get resolved. But I think the team, you know, all in all, is working through that.
We're still able to drive higher revenue and, you know, higher profit margins. So I think, you know, all in all, the business is performing well, despite, you know, it's still a tough environment. I think you see most companies reporting and, you know, continue to see some challenges in the supply chain. Still a lot of new people, a lot of training and efficiencies and things like that, but we're working our way through it. Same thing at Bell. You know, we have a number of deliveries that, you know, that we missed. We're missing some, you know, key components, but we're working with those suppliers, and as I said, the number of them are getting smaller, but in this industry, every part's important. So, you know, we're continuing to have to work our way around some late deliveries of parts coming in.
As I said, I think all in all, our team's operations are fighting through that and, you know, getting most of their deliveries done and continue to drive good margins. We'll, you know, keep our heads down and keep fighting through that through the course of the year, I think.
David Strauss (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
Okay, thanks for that. And, you know, your first half jet deliveries are relatively flat year-over-year. Are you still expecting higher, you know, higher jet deliveries for the year? And can you maybe comment on Latitude and, specifically, the deliveries were lighter year-over-year there, which was a bit surprising. Thanks.
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Oh, look, I think we are still expecting to have higher unit deliveries in 2024 than we had in 2023. I would say for sure, David, we're a little behind where we would like to be on a couple of these models. Latitude is one in particular, where we had a few deliveries, you know, towards the end of the quarter that we didn't get out. They've now gone, but, you know, we're working those lines hard and addressing some of the issues. Latitude, specifically, you know, had one item that we had to kind of manage our way through, and I do think we'll see improved performance on that line through the balance of the year.
So, you know, bottom line is that we will still have higher unit deliveries, and I think overall good mix, and the performance of the business, you know, despite all that, will show, you know, strong margin performance on a year-over-year basis.
David Strauss (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
Great. Thanks very much.
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Sure.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Sheila Kahyaoglu (Managing Director in Equity Research)
Good morning, guys. Thank you so much. Thought maybe to start on aviation. Aviation profitability has been really good, 13.2 in the quarter, I think 150 basis points of net price. So how do we think about the puts and takes as we go into the second half, and is this sort of low teens a new level for aviation profitability?
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Oh, look, Sheila, I do think the team is performing well, right? I mean, we've got revenues up, margin is up, backlog is up, so we feel pretty good about where the business is. As I said in my answer to David's question, you know, it's not always easy. We're still dealing with challenges in supply chain and, you know, things of that nature. But I do think that we'll see, you know, continued, you know, strong margins on a year-over-year basis as we go through the balance of the year. And again, we're feeling good about where the business is. It's... I wish it was easier. It's not, but the guys are working through it, and I do think that we'll see, you know, strong margins. I think we still feel good about our guide.
We still think this is probably a $6 billion business this year. I think we'll be well, you know, well within the guide on the, on the margin front. As we said earlier in the year, I think the, the price inflation spread, you'll see that getting smaller as the year goes on. But again, I think that'll be, you know, in part offset by the fact that we'll continue to drive better, better efficiencies and performance through the factory.
Sheila Kahyaoglu (Managing Director in Equity Research)
Great. And then, maybe one on Bell, and just the military portfolio there outside of FLRAA. How do you think about V-22 and opportunities there elsewhere in the military side?
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
So I think the balance of the military business outside of FLRAA is, you know, doing well, right? I mean, we did add the, the H-1s from Nigeria, so that's 12, you know, aircraft. We're able to start ramping that, you know, here this year. We saw some benefit of that, you know, in the quarter as, as that program starts to ramp up. You know, V-22 production is still going along. Obviously, the, the five aircraft that were in the FY 2024 have now been, you know, added, so we look at that, you know, as adding a little bit of base. The SIEPU program continues to go. I think we'll see broader adaptation of acceptance of that here as we go into the future.
So I think there's, you know, work going on in the FY 25 budget and beyond, that will provide some upgrade opportunities on V-22 as well as H-1. Saw the announcements around SIEPU. So I do think, you know, while the production unit volumes obviously will continue to ramp down, we will see some, you know, good flow of upgrade and modernization efforts on both the H-1 and the V-22 lines. That will help to make that, you know, keep that solid as we start to ramp and really more move towards a production mode of the FLRAA program.
Sheila Kahyaoglu (Managing Director in Equity Research)
Great. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Myles Walton from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Myles Walton (Managing Director)
Thanks. Good morning. I was wondering, Scott, if you could talk about the aftermarket growth. You mentioned 13%, which is, you know, pretty good acceleration given utilization is decelerating. Was there anything or is there anything that's driving that, whether that's non-typical on the military side or mandates or anything of that nature?
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Well, I think all in all, Myles, we're continuing to see, you know, good growth in the aftermarket business. Demand continues to be strong. Aircraft are flying. You know, we have, we did have a strong military, you know, quarter in particular as we, you know, build the spares pool around the METS program for, you know, the Navy contract. But it's just in general strong on the aftermarket side. The demand is there. Again, people are flying, so consumption is up. People are doing shop visits, so I think we feel, you know, in a, we're in a very good place in terms of the aftermarket overall.
Myles Walton (Managing Director)
Okay. And then I guess on the performance disclosure, the $33 million drag, I know this can get a little bit apples to oranges comparison, but does that imply that performance actually deteriorated sequentially or didn't improve as much as you had in your baseline plan?
Frank T Connor (CFO)
Well, you know, Myles, look, the performance category is a messy one, as you know, right? So there's a lot of stuff in there. For sure, some of it is just some of those inefficiencies that we talked about, right? I mean, we're still not at our standard cost where we would like to be, so part of that number for sure reflects some manufacturing variance. But as you know, there's also a lot of other stuff in there, right? I mean, the business continues to grow. So if you look at, you know, on a year-over-year basis, SG&A, IRAD, you know, these numbers, which are in line on a % of sales basis, but those actual dollar values on a year-over-year basis also go through that performance line. So there's natural growth in SG&A, there's natural growth in IRAD.
Look, there was a legal settlement in there this quarter. You know, so there, there's always, you know, lots of $3 million, $4 million, $5 million things that go through there, you know, most of which you would kind of expect in a business that's growing and continuing to invest.
Myles Walton (Managing Director)
Okay, got it. Thanks so much.
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Sure.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Doug Harned from Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Douglas Harned (Managing Director and Senior Global Aerospace & Defense Analyst)
Well, good morning. Thank you.
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Great.
Douglas Harned (Managing Director and Senior Global Aerospace & Defense Analyst)
You know, on the Ascend, you introduced the Ascend to the EBACE.
And I thought that was interesting. Europe's only about, I think, about 7% of aviation revenues. You know, how are you looking at international markets, particularly Europe, Asia? Do you see those for aviation as potentially offering a bigger share of, of your total revenues?
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
So, Doug, I don't know if it will change dramatically, that overall share of revenue. You know, the jet business obviously has always been more North American-centric. South America has usually been our second biggest market, then Europe, you know, third behind that. So specifically, as you look at Ascend, I think we'll see a similar, you know, spread of share, much as we saw over many years with the XLS family. You know, this really, you know, the Ascend, in essence, takes that historical product, which has been a home run for us, probably the most popular business jet in the world, and, you know, modernizes it, gives us great new cockpits, you know, a little bit of thrust bump in the engine side, a much better cabin with a flat floor and larger windows.
I mean, everything. I think customers will love everything about that aircraft, from crews to passengers, performance. But I would expect we will see you know, the same kind of share because it, it really is the product that is hugely strong in that mid-size business jet market. But that is still largely a North American market, and then secondarily, South American, and then European. So I would expect we'll see that same, you know, kind of share position across all those, key segments with the Ascend, as we used to see with the XLS family.
Douglas Harned (Managing Director and Senior Global Aerospace & Defense Analyst)
And then on Sky Courier, I mean, Sky Courier seems to be... You're sort of expanding the envelope in which it can serve. How do you ultimately see that market in terms of scale, and how large could that, the Sky Courier fleet ultimately be?
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Oh, I think it's gonna be a very big market. You know, I mean, if you look at, you know, the acceptance of that product, I mean, right now we're just trying to make them as fast as we can make them. The demand has been really strong, and, I mean, it's been great to see, Doug, it's everything from the pure cargo version. I mean, this thing is a beast in terms of moving cargo around the world. We're seeing a lot of acceptance on, you know, sort of small regional airlines, 19 PAX seating, and then obviously, what we did here most recently with the Combi, is you have a lot of markets where, you know, they need to move PAX, but they also need to move cargo, and that's exactly what the Combi was aimed at.
So, you know, right now, I think, you know, both, you know, domestic, international markets, cargo, PAX, now the Combi, you know, the issue for us with Sky Courier is just continue to ramp up, the production volumes. The demand is there across all those segments and in a lot of different geographies.
Douglas Harned (Managing Director and Senior Global Aerospace & Defense Analyst)
Okay, very good. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Seth Seifman (Vice President and Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, thanks very much, and good morning.
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Morning, Seth.
Seth Seifman (Vice President and Equity Research Analyst)
I was wondering if you'd talk a little bit more about the potential, you know, where the margin can go in the industrial segment in the second half, kind of how much of the benefit of, of the cost-cutting program, you felt like we saw in the 2Q, and how much is still on the come?
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Well, Seth, I mean, I don't know if I'll give an exact number, but we certainly continue. We expect to see it continue to grow as we move through the year. We're not expecting a miraculous turnaround in the end market demand. We're watching that very closely. So, you know, if you look at the numbers Frank kind of went through, we've done about a third of the restructuring, you know, costs incurred here in Q2. We'll see another, you know, big chunk of that for the most part, you know, in the back half of this year, as we continue to take, you know, cost out of the business to align with that volume. But I think, when you look at that, you know, it's probably gonna generate, you know...
We're probably still running 100 basis points or something below where we should be, and I think the cost actions that we're taking will square that away. So it's, you know, the strategy right now is keep taking the cost actions. Don't assume that you see some miraculous turnaround in terms of, you know, that end consumer demand and just keep driving, you know, sequentially improved margins.
Seth Seifman (Vice President and Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Okay, great. And then, maybe just as a quick follow-up, you know, very good order activity, year to date in, in aviation. Is there anything you'd say to distinguish where the order activity is coming from with regard to either, fleet customers versus, versus individual customers?
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
No, we're still seeing, you know, the spread is strong pretty much across all the customer base and both jet and turboprop. So it's pretty well across all characteristics, no matter how you want to kind of slice and dice, it's looking, you know, to be continually continued strong demand.
Seth Seifman (Vice President and Equity Research Analyst)
Excellent. Well, thanks very much.
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Sure.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Noah Poponak (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, good morning, everyone.
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Good morning, Noah.
Frank T Connor (CFO)
Morning, Noah.
Noah Poponak (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
The business jet output just remains, I guess, low relative to how strong demand is and where the backlog is. Are lead times getting long enough that it's an issue for some customers, and you're losing some sales on that? Or do you sorta just not care about that because you're managing to price, and the margins are good, and you're okay on that front?
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Well, I mean, I think largely, Noah, this is an industry phenomenon, right? I mean, you know, if you're out there, if you had a dramatically different, you know, lead time, you might be disadvantaged, but I think everybody is dealing with the same issue. So, you know, we're still out there. Obviously, with the book-to-bill above one, you know, we're selling, but we're, you know, we're delivering aircraft, but we're continuing to take orders, you know, into those out years. So it's, I'd say right now, it's pretty well balanced, and I don't think we're at a competitive advantage or disadvantage right now in terms of availability. We're all out, you know, competing, but in a, you know, in a timeline, obviously, based on the backlog, it's out there, you know, a year and a half, two years in many cases.
Noah Poponak (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. The additional H-1 orders at Bell, can you speak to roughly what that adds annually and how far out in the future that will go?
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
No, I don't think so. No, I mean, the Nigerian order was 12 aircraft. Like, the upgrade programs like SIEPU, you know, that'll go on for, you know, for quite a number of years. But, I mean, those aren't all appropriated, so I don't think I would get into that. The same I would say on the V-22 program, right? We think there's, you know, nacelle improvement opportunities. There's a number of other, you know, things that are in dialogue with our V-22 customers on enhancements. Everybody knows that aircraft's gonna be around for a very, very long time. And so like, like any military platform, you would expect, you know, ongoing investment upgrades, enhancements, but these are all dialogues and programs that will flow over the years.
So I don't think I would necessarily start to get into a multiyear forecast on those.
Noah Poponak (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. And then, just the last one. Does it make sense to walk through the math on the Shadow decommission, just so that's modeled correctly? How much comes out? What does it do to the margins? Did that affect the 2Q? Any clarity you can provide there?
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
So look, I mean, from a modeling standpoint, Noah, this is about a $50 million business or something like that, right? So I mean, you know, we've already obviously worked our way through most of what the revenue is gonna be this year as we wound down from Q1 to Q2, so I'd say it's fairly deMinimis as we go through the balance of the year. Again, I think this is one where if you look at, you know, that team from our original guide absorbed, you know, that loss of the Shadow, which kind of came out of nowhere, obviously, from our perspective.
You know, we've seen enough growth in all of the other businesses within systems to try to make up for that revenue and obviously continue to hold a good margin business. So I think the team has, you know, largely got Shadow, unfortunately, is largely behind us, and the team managed their way through that and has positioned us to at least, you know, continue to operate the business well. And again, most importantly, probably in systems, focus on, you know, those new programs like the FTUAS, the RCVs, the ARV, XM30. I mean, there's a lot of stuff going on in that business that has opportunity. But I would say largely, the way you model is we've sort of have absorbed the loss of the Shadow program.
Noah Poponak (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Yeah, that looked mathematically a little tough to do, at least in the very near term. So, yeah, that's, that's impressive. Okay. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr from Cowen and Company. Please go ahead.
Cai von Rumohr (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
Yes, thanks so much. So, Scott, you know, you guys have been kind of warning about margins. Don't get ahead of yourself because the inefficiencies that we experienced in the second half of last year are gonna flow through inventory into the P&L, and that will restrain margins. Looks like that didn't really occur, I know, although I know mix was a plus. And as presumably your efficiencies are improving, even if not as much as we'd hoped, should we be looking for, you know, a good improvement in the second half from diminishing flow-through of kind of inefficiencies, so that even though I assume the mix is negative, given you got more Latitudes, but, but so, you know, you could basically sustain this 13% type margin?
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Well, look, I, I think that the, you know, the 13% is extremely strong, right? I'm not sure I would say that we're gonna maintain 13% as we go through the balance of the year, but I think it's gonna be solidly in that sort of that, you know, mid-12s, you know, kind of range. So for sure, we will have, you know, some, as I said earlier, probably less price inflation spread than we had, and, and part of that, frankly, is some mix. We do have a lot of Latitude deliveries, a number of which are, you know, heavy on the, on the fractional side in the, in particular in Q3, and as you know, those have lower margin than a retail Latitude. So there's... Like, there's always some headwinds, but there's also good things that are going on.
So I think this business is well within the guide that we put out there, despite the ongoing inefficiencies. And, you know, at a mid-12% margin, you know, we feel like this business is performing well, generating strong margin, generating good revenue growth, generating continued strong backlog. So I think, you know, the guide that we had out there, which I think we're clearly still on track to deliver, shows that business in a very good place.
Cai von Rumohr (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
Terrific. Secondly, you continue to be aggressive, actually, even more aggressive in terms of share repurchase. You bought $258 million, 4.1 million shares, so you're basically whacking away at a 5% rate. What should we expect in terms of the repo in the second half?
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
I think we'll continue to focus on that repo, Cai. Look, we're generating good, strong cash flow. We feel very good about where the business is on a cash standpoint. Look, we did some small acquisitions of Amazilia, relatively small dollars, but adds some real capability to the eAviation business. Frankly, technology will help us, not just the eAviation, but I think also at Textron Aviation, as well as future opportunities at Bell. So, you know, but these are small dollars. Clearly, the bulk of, you know, the strong cash flow, you know, generation that we have right now were allocated to the buyback, and I think we'll continue to do that.
Cai von Rumohr (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
Thank you very much.
Operator (participant)
... Your next question comes from the line of Ron Epstein from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Ronald Epstein (Managing Director and Senior Aerospace & Defense Analyst)
Yeah, hello. Can you hear me?
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Good morning, Ron. We can hear you.
Ronald Epstein (Managing Director and Senior Aerospace & Defense Analyst)
Yeah. Good. Perfect. Sorry. Yeah, maybe just a couple quick ones. Could you do a bigger version of SkyCourier? Like, is there any demand for that from your customers?
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
You know, Ron, I don't know that we need to do a bigger version of it. It's a big aircraft. You just have to get up next to one of those guys. But, I mean, you know, just from a regulatory standpoint, I mean, where it sits, you know, first of all, it fits really, really well in that short-haul cargo market. Obviously, we worked very closely with FedEx, and particularly on designing that aircraft, so it was really, you know, designed to be in that 3 LD3 container, you know, kind of space, where it fits really, really well. And then on the pax side, you know, from a regulatory standpoint, you hit that 19 pax, you know, line, and this thing, you know, comfortably takes care of 19 passengers.
So, you know, I think to do anything, you know, bigger than that, now you sort of start to step up into the ATR world and things like that, and I don't think that's really our space. I think where there was a huge gap in the market was really when you went from our Caravan, you know, which obviously has been a home run in that smaller cargo and packs market, you know, and then up into that sort of light, you know, air transport kind of side. We felt like SkyCourier is in the sweet spot of that, so... And we're seeing that from a market demand standpoint.
Ronald Epstein (Managing Director and Senior Aerospace & Defense Analyst)
Got it. And then on aviation, I mean, how do I frame this? It seems like we're in a unique environment where for, I mean, for you guys, I don't want to put words in your mouth, but everybody that you have no white tails. Everything going down lines is owned. Have you ever experienced that before, if that's the case?
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Well, I think you have to probably go back to 2007, Ron, to, you know, to be there. But, look, this is a business, we and we talked about this for years, right, Ron? This, this shouldn't be a white-tail business, right? I mean, it wasn't in most of its, most of the history of business jets was not a white-tail business. I think what happened, you know, sort of financial crisis, post-financial crisis, wasn't how that business should operate. You know, this business should operate off of a, you know, depending on the model types, you know, anywhere from 12, 18 months to two-year, you know, kind of a backlog, so that you know when an aircraft is rolling down that line, you know, where it's going. And that's where we are, and I think that's where the industry should stay. It's...
Again, this is not a new idea, right? This is how this industry worked for decades, and certainly good to have it back where it's supposed to be.
Ronald Epstein (Managing Director and Senior Aerospace & Defense Analyst)
Yeah, that's great. And then, if I can, just one last quick one, just curious. You mentioned that eAviation, some of the technology investments you might make inorganically, could flow back out to, you know, just broader Textron Aviation. Can you highlight anything that you're learning in that business that could actually help outside of the aviation, just broader aviation?
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Sure. Look, the nature of what we're doing, you know, with, particularly with unmanned things like Nuuva, and when you look at the levels of automation that we believe need to be in things like Nexus, you know, these are very highly automated, you know, fly-by-wire, digital flight control, you know, almost autonomous. Even if there's not a—even if there is a person in the cockpit, like in the Nexus case, it's still, you know, in essence, you know, the capability of the aircraft is inherently autonomous. So when you look at the Amazilia guys, this is a, you know, an air, air expertise that they had. But we've done this. We've done, you know, a lot of fly-by-wire on V-22, for instance. Obviously, you know, the V-280 is all fly-by-wire. The 525 is the first commercial helicopter in the world that's fly-by-wire.
So we have capability in the company to do this, but I think as we go forward, not just for these things like Nexus and like and Nuuva, but, you know, future families of products or enhancements, upgrades to products, is gonna see more and more levels of, you know, fly-by-wire, digital control, quasi-autonomous capability, but it needs to be at a much lower price point, you know, than what you've seen in these, in these high-end, you know, very expensive systems. And so that's, you know, the technology that we're using, developing, and working both through the acquisition and the implementation on things like Nuuva and Nexus, are fundamental technologies that will, I believe, you'll start to see in, you know, the, the lower price point, both fixed-wing and rotorcraft markets of the future.
Ronald Epstein (Managing Director and Senior Aerospace & Defense Analyst)
Okay, cool. Thank you very much.
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Sure.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Kristine Liwag (Executive Director)
Hey, good morning, everyone. Scott and Frank, I mean, the strength in aviation is clear. Scott, you mentioned in Ron's question that, look, we're, we're kind of almost back to that pre-financial crisis levels, regarding the backlog. If you take out the performance headwind that you highlighted in the quarter, margins at aviation would have been 15.5%. I mean, this is also back to pre-kind of financial crisis levels margin. So I guess, you know, when, when the performance headwinds tail off and the backlog continues to hold secure, you know, is the mid-teens margin kind of the new normal in aviation?
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Well, Christine, I guess what I would say is, you know, look, some of those performance items, you know, for sure are associated with these factory inefficiencies, and we do expect, you know, over time for those things to get better as we get better, you know, supply chain deliveries, as our workforce becomes, you know, more seasoned, you know, again. So I do think there will continue to be underlying improvements going forward in those areas. But as I also said, you know, some of these things around performance are also just fundamentally associated with the growth of the business, right? We are gonna see more sales commissions when we have, you know, more sales, and we are gonna see-...
R&D, again, not necessarily a headwind from a percent of sales standpoint, but you're going to see, you know, higher R&D numbers as we continue to invest in the business. So, but like, I, I think the bottom line answer to your question, Kristine, is we're not going to put a number out there right now, but clearly, you know, over the last few years, we continue to see improvements in the margin performance of this business, and I think, you know, it's reasonable to expect that we'll continue to see that going forward.
Kristine Liwag (Executive Director)
Thank you. That's really helpful context. And then maybe pivoting to a defense question, the European defense budget seems to be moving higher, a little faster and steeper than the U.S. defense budget. I guess, how do you think about opportunities for European sales? It hasn't been a huge part of your portfolio historically, but with the leverage of the business pretty low, what's also your interest in expanding European capabilities, either organically or inorganically?
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Well, I mean, we do have a number of sales campaigns, you know, that go on in Europe. It's not, as you noted, has not been a huge part of our business in the past. I do think, as you look at, you know, foreign military sales opportunity, things like the FLRAA program, clearly, that's a big part of where the Army is focused, is looking at partner countries around the world. And, you know, just as we saw for many, many decades, you know, things like the Black Hawk become really important parts of those businesses from an international sales perspective, including Europe. We obviously will expect that to happen over time. There's also some organic things.
So again, you know, if you look at rotorcraft again, I guess, you know, right now, we've, you know, we did announce, you know, sort of a teaming, you know, relationship with our, with Leonardo around pursuit of the European next generation rotorcraft opportunity. So that's, you know, kind of organic, but, you know, that would be a product that's tailored to that European market. So I do think there are opportunities out there, and we are pursuing those, and we'll compete for those, you know, going forward.
Kristine Liwag (Executive Director)
Great. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of George Shapiro from Shapiro Research. Please go ahead.
George Shapiro (Managing Partner and Aero/Defense Analyst)
Good morning.
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Good morning, George.
George Shapiro (Managing Partner and Aero/Defense Analyst)
Scott, the year-to-date orders have been about $3 billion in aviation, about the same as last year's first half. Do you think you can reach the $1.86 billion of orders that you had in last year's 3Q, which was particularly strong?
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
You know, George, I don't know. I mean, we're you know, as, as we kind of guided, we think this is going to end up as a, as a one-to-one year. That's, that's still our, our view. So, you know, if you look at, you know, order activities, you know, last year, they were, they were stronger than that. But I, I do think we're again, our expectation is we're in, in sort of a more normalized world here, where, you know, one-to-one is a, is a good book-to-bill target. You know, we are coming through the first half of the year strong, which is great. I mean, I'd love to see that continue, obviously, but I, I don't think necessarily $1.6 billion in a quarter is, is probably pretty sporty.
George Shapiro (Managing Partner and Aero/Defense Analyst)
Okay. And then maybe one for you, Frank. The inventories year to date are up, like, $467 million, obviously less in the 2Q with better deliveries, but still up $110 million in the 2Q. I mean, for the end of the year, do you expect that inventory level to come down to close to where it was at the end of last year, or we're going to stay $100, a couple hundred million above it? Thanks.
Frank T Connor (CFO)
Well, we'll certainly expect to liquidate inventory in the back half of the year. Yeah, but in order to kinda grow the business for next year, you know, we need inventory in order to sell products. So we expect we'll see some inventory growth on a year-over-year basis at year-end, but, you know, not at the levels you've seen to date. I'd say overall, you know, obviously, that offsets from working capital in other areas, so we think working capital is kind of flattish type number for the year. But, you know, obviously, there are offsets and payables and other things associated with that, but we do need some inventory growth in order to grow the business.
George Shapiro (Managing Partner and Aero/Defense Analyst)
And, and one last one. In industrial, in the 1Q, you pretty much said was primarily weak because of, Special Vehicles. This quarter, you kind of said, you didn't say that. So do you assume that, both Kautex and special vehicles were relatively weak in this quarter?
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Well, Kautex was down on a year-over-year basis, but it wasn't particularly weak. It was just, you know, we had a very strong 2Q last year, frankly, both in Specialized Vehicles and Kautex. So you had a really tough compare from both a volume standpoint as well as a margin standpoint. But, you know, Kautex, on a sequential basis, was up quarter-over-quarter, but it was down a bit on a year-over-year basis. But Specialized Vehicle was down, you know, kind of more on a year-over-year basis, coming off a very strong 2Q last year.
George Shapiro (Managing Partner and Aero/Defense Analyst)
Okay. Thanks very much.
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Pete Skibitski from Alembic Global. Please go ahead.
Peter Skibitski (Director, Aerospace & Defense Equity Research)
Hey, good morning, guys.
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Good morning, Pete.
Peter Skibitski (Director, Aerospace & Defense Equity Research)
Hey, Scott, as we think about, you know, some of the softness in the consumer that you're experiencing at TSV, maybe, you know, to your Kautex comments as well, you know, less so, but you guys aren't seeing that extend to any of your aviation customers at all? And I, you know, not even on the pistons or the turboprops. I'm asking in particular because it seems like deliveries on your lighter jets and aviation, that Citation in the first half were a little bit lighter year-over-year versus the larger jets. So I just want to understand how you're seeing the health of your customers there. Obviously, they have bigger balance sheets, but I just want to get a sense.
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, Peter, I'd say when you look at our lighter aircraft, I mean, M2, CJ3, CJ4, you know, we're seeing strong demand, so book-to-bill on those guys is good. Even, you know, pistons, I mean, you know, for the most part, we're just trying to make them faster, right? I mean, you know, the piston aircraft training demand remains very high, right? It's very hard to find a 172 anywhere, you know? So I think the piston side of the business is good. The light jet side of the business is good.
It's that, you know, again, these are people with stronger balance sheets, obviously, and, you know, looking out, you know, over time and, you know, you know, there's backlogs, so, you know, you can't even get one for, you know, a year or 18 months, you know, whatever it may be, even in the, in the lighter, you know, jet side of things. So we continue to see good order flow there. It's that, you know, it's that discretionary, you know, sort of point-of-sale, kind of consumer, you know, generally financed, you know, kind of market that's just- that's down. As I said, we're aligning costs, you know, around that. You know, as Frank said, it's, you know, it's tough, particularly this quarter. We had a really strong quarter for a lot of those kind of products, you know, a year ago.
It's softer now, and so we're, you know, we've made necessary cost and production volume alignments to, to match that. But no, we're absolutely not seeing that behavior when you look at light jets or light 505s, light 407s, you know, I mean, the market for, you know, those, you know, even the sort of the, the lower price point, you know, jets and rotorcraft continue to do very well.
Peter Skibitski (Director, Aerospace & Defense Equity Research)
Okay. Okay, interesting. Last one for me, just on GBSD. It, it looks like, the Sentinel looks like it passed its Nunn-McCurdy review. Any change that you guys expect to the program profile for you guys?
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
No, I don't. We're continuing to work very closely with Northrop. I think the program is progressing well. You know, we've had a number of things that have added scope, you know, to what we originally, you know, had bid on the program. So, I think we have a great relationship with these guys. That piece of the program is going well. As you guys know, I mean, just in the media, you know, a lot of the cost issues around the infrastructure, as opposed to the, you know, the missile itself have been, you know, a big issue. So, for sure, you know, there's schedule challenges, which I think are well documented.
Northrop talks about them, their customer talks about them, but, you know, we continue, I think, to execute well on the program, see scope increases on the program, and are, you know, continuing to make good progress on our piece of the overall weapon system.
Peter Skibitski (Director, Aerospace & Defense Equity Research)
Okay, thank you.
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Sure.
Operator (participant)
Your final question today comes from the line of Gavin Parsons from UBS. Please go ahead.
Gavin Parsons (Director, Aerospace & Defense Equity Research)
Thank you. Morning.
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Morning.
Gavin Parsons (Director, Aerospace & Defense Equity Research)
Sounded like aviation guidance in line with the initial thoughts, industrial margin may be a little below, but can you just kinda go around the horn a little bit and, and update what's tracking above or below to, to allow you to stay in the guidance range?
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, Gavin, I think you actually did a pretty good job there. I think the aviation guys are well within their guide and having a great year. I think that Bell and Systems will probably come in a little bit above their guide. Strong performance in both those businesses. And as we talked about, you know, we'll probably be a little below the guide on the industrial segment just because of lower volume, particularly in that consumer space. But, you know, net, I think we feel pretty good about where things are and, you know, most businesses are performing really well.
Gavin Parsons (Director, Aerospace & Defense Equity Research)
Okay, appreciate it. And then maybe just on pricing on orders, seems like you're still getting maybe mid-single digits on deliveries. Is it a similar level what's going into the backlog today?
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, I mean, we're probably not gonna give, you know, price forecasting, but, you know, I would certainly say price continues to be, you know, strong in the marketplace, so.
Gavin Parsons (Director, Aerospace & Defense Equity Research)
Okay. Thank you.
Scott C. Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Great.
Operator (participant)
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