Textron - Earnings Call - Q3 2020
October 29, 2020
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Textron Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session.
If you'd like to ask a question, please press one then zero. If you should require assistance during the call, please press star then zero. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Vice President of Investor Relations, Mr. Eric Salander. Please go ahead.
Eric Salander (VP of Investor Relations)
Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to mention we will be discussing future estimates and expectations during our call today. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risk factors, which are detailed in our SEC filings and also in today's press release.
On the call today, we have Scott Donnelly, Textron's Chairman and CEO, and Frank Connor, our Chief Financial Officer. Our earnings call presentation can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website. Revenues in the quarter were $2.7 billion, down from $3.3 billion in last year's third quarter. During this year's third quarter, we reported net income of $0.50 per share compared to $0.95 per share in the third quarter of 2019. Adjusted net income, a non-GAAP measure, was $0.53 per share for the third quarter of 2020.
Adjusted Net Income excludes $7 million, a pre-tax special charge, as $0.03 per share after tax, related to the restructuring plan announced in the second quarter. Segment Profit in the quarter was $189 million, down from $297 million in the third quarter of 2019. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions totaled $344 million, up $163 million from last year's third quarter. With that, I'll turn the call over to Scott.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Eric, and good morning, everyone. Overall, the third quarter results reflected a strong operating performance across all our teams, with strong cash generation and improved margins. At Bell, we had a very strong quarter with a 15% operating margin on slightly higher revenues. On the commercial side at Bell, we delivered 41 helicopters, down from 42 in last year's third quarter.
Military remained strong in the quarter, largely due to higher aftermarket volume on existing contracts in support of the V-22 and H-1 fleets. Also, in the quarter, Bell continued to increase the scope of its support of the U.S. military aircraft with the award of a new $213 million H-1 spares contract. In the past year, H-1 aftermarket contracts now total over $1 billion.
Also, in the third quarter, Bell definitized a $272 million contract on the H-1 program with the Czech Republic for eight Yankees and four Zulus. On Future Vertical Lift, the V-280 continues to fly in support of the Army's risk reduction program and has now flown over 190 hours as we continue to demonstrate the capabilities of this aircraft to our Army customer. On FARA, Bell has begun building the 360 Invictus prototype aircraft, starting with gearboxes, rotors, and airframe structure. Moving to Textron Systems, the third quarter was strong with margins of 13.2%.
In the quarter, Systems was awarded an initial contract to support the ground-based strategic deterrent missile system as a subcontractor to Northrop Grumman with work beginning this year. Also, in the quarter, Systems received an additional task order for the Air Force CAF CAS program to support Eglin Air Force Base. This award is in addition to the two bases announced at the end of the second quarter. Systems also announced the successful flyaway of the first two Ship-to-Shore Connectors, Craft 100 and 101.
These two craft are now stationed at Panama City, Florida, where they've been placed into testing and operational roles by the U.S. Navy. In Aviation, revenues were down in the quarter as expected from lower new aircraft deliveries and aftermarket volume. We delivered 25 jets, down from 45 last year, and 21 commercial turboprops, down from 39 last year's third quarter. While the pandemic impacted volume in the quarter, we did see aircraft utilization levels continue to recover and were encouraged by new order flow. Order activity was strong in the quarter, reflecting an increase in new aircraft bookings that resulted in backlog growth of $400 million to $1.8 billion at the quarter end.
On the new product front, we inducted the third Cessna SkyCourier into the aircraft certification program, which has accumulated over 240 flight hours. The program is progressing well, and the aircraft is on track for certification and entry into service in the second half of 2021. We announced the new Beechcraft King Air 360, which recently received FAA type certification.
This updated turboprop includes technological advancements to the flight deck and enhancements to passenger comfort. Moving to Industrial, revenues were down from last year's third quarter, primarily due to lower volume of Specialized Vehicles, principally reflecting the timing of snowmobile deliveries and reduced demand in the ground support equipment business. At Specialized Vehicles, we continue to see strong retail demand in our outdoor power sports business during the third quarter and expect revenue growth in the fourth quarter.
At Kautex, the automotive production outlook has steadily improved since the low point in May, and demand from our customers has returned faster than anticipated. Kautex teams have responded well in managing costs and executing through these challenging times and delivered a strong operating performance in the third quarter. With that, I'll turn the call over to Frank.
Frank Connor (CFO)
Thank you, Scott, and good morning, everyone. Let's review how each of the segments contributed, starting with Textron Aviation. Revenues at Textron Aviation of $795 million were down $406 million from a year ago, largely due to lower Citation jet volume of $234 million, lower aftermarket volume of $95 million, and lower commercial turboprop volume of $83 million. Segment loss was $29 million in the third quarter, down from $104 million of profit last year, primarily due to the lower volume.
Backlog in this segment ended the quarter at $1.8 billion. Moving to Bell, revenues were $793 million, up $10 million from last year on higher military volume, partially offset by lower commercial revenues, primarily due to the mix of aircraft sold in the period. Segment profit of $119 million was up $9 million, largely due to a favorable impact from performance.
Operating margin at the segment was 15%, up 100 basis points from last year. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $5.7 billion. At Textron Systems, revenues were $302 million, down $9 million from a year ago, primarily due to lower volume of $20 million at TRU Simulation + Training. Segment profit of $40 million was up $9 million due to a favorable impact from performance, partially offset by lower volume. Operating margin of 13.2% was up 320 basis points from last year's third quarter.
Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $1.9 billion. Industrial revenues of $832 million were down $118 million from last year, primarily from lower volume of Specialized Vehicles. Segment profit was $58 million, up $11 million from the third quarter of 2019, primarily related to a favorable impact from performance of $24 million, principally reflecting cost reduction activities, partially offset by lower volume and mix.
Operating margin was 7%, up 210 basis points from last year's third quarter. Finance segment revenues were $13 million, and profit was $1 million. Moving below segment profit, corporate expenses were $28 million, and interest expense was $38 million. With respect to our restructuring plan announced in the second quarter, we recorded pre-tax charges of $7 million on the special charges line. Subsequent to the end of the quarter, we entered into a closing agreement with a state tax authority that will result in the recognition of tax benefits that will reduce our tax expense in the fourth quarter by approximately $40-$50 million.
Turning to the balance sheet, we issued $500 million of fixed-rate 10-year notes at a coupon of 2.45% in the third quarter and used the proceeds to pay down the $500 million 3.60% loan that we entered into in the first quarter. Following the cash performance in the quarter, we ended with approximately $2.7 billion of cash on the balance sheet, and we have effectively pre-financed all our existing term debt maturities through 2021.
In the fourth quarter, we expect to repay $350 million of floating-rate notes due in November and $362 million of outstanding borrowings on the corporate-owned life insurance policies that were drawn in the first quarter for additional liquidity. While we continue to believe it is prudent to maintain a higher-than-normal cash balance as we close out the year, we expect to reactivate our share repurchase program on an opportunistic basis in the fourth quarter. With that, I'll turn it back over to Scott.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Thanks, Frank. To wrap up, our teams executed very well and generated solid results in the third quarter. Looking to the fourth quarter, we expect our defense businesses to continue their strong performance.
At Aviation, we anticipate a return to profitability as they begin to capitalize on the new aircraft order flow generated in the third quarter. At Industrial, we expect a continuation of the rebound in our end markets. That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, we can open the lines for questions.
Operator (participant)
Okay. Ladies and gentlemen, if you'd like to ask a question, please press one then zero on your telephone keypad. You may withdraw your question at any time by repeating the one-zero command. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up the handset before pressing the numbers.
Once again, if you have a question, please press one then zero at this time. And one moment, please, for your first question. Your first question comes from the line of Robert Stallard from Vertical Research. Please go ahead.
Robert Stallard (Senior Equity Analyst)
Thanks so much. Good morning.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Morning, Robert.
Robert Stallard (Senior Equity Analyst)
First of all, Scott, I was wondering if there's been any change to your thoughts on 2021 deliveries at Aviation. Are you still thinking about the same as you were three months ago?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, I think the order flow has been encouraging, Rob. And I would say at this point, our plan is that we probably see about half of the recovery. If you look at the dip from 2019 into 2020, we would expect to see about half of that come back in demand in 2021.
Robert Stallard (Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay. And then secondly for me, in terms of the fourth quarter, you gave us some points on the business, but I was wondering if the very strong cash flow that you saw in the third quarter can be continued, or did you pull some items forward into the third quarter?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
No, I think we'll continue to see good cash flow. It's pretty balanced across working capital and across all segments of the business. As you know, we tend to have growth in inventory going into a fourth quarter and then burn that down, and this year, inventory was obviously something we've been managing much more closely, but I expect that we will continue to see good cash generation in Q4.
Robert Stallard (Senior Equity Analyst)
That's great. Thank you very much.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Sure.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Peter Arment from Baird. Please go ahead.
Peter Arment (Senior Research Analyst)
Yeah. Good morning, Scott. Frank.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Peter Arment here.
Peter Arment (Senior Research Analyst)
Hey, Scott. Just maybe good to see the backlog kind of spike up at Aviation. Can you give us a little color there on kind of what the mix of what you're seeing there?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, it's pretty much across the board. We've seen a nice pickup in jet activity, and it really is from lights through our midsize, super midsize platforms, which is good, and also pretty strong order activity in the King Air family.
Peter Arment (Senior Research Analyst)
Okay. And just as a follow-up in staying in Aviation, just the lower aftermarket demand, I guess it still seems a little surprising to us just given what we've heard about biz jet flight activity. What are you seeing there, and do you expect that actually to start to turn the corner before we see deliveries pick up?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Well, I mean, it sequentially certainly is improving, Peter. So it's still down in the sort of low-to-mid 20s on a year-over-year basis. But as we've seen the flight activity continue to grow, the service is coming back with that. So it's not surprising that it would trail a little bit, but we don't think it'll get back to comparable in fourth quarter, but we certainly expect to see it continue to sequentially improve.
Peter Arment (Senior Research Analyst)
Appreciate the color. Thanks, guys.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Sure. Sure.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Sheila Kahyaoglu (Managing Director in Equity Research)
Hi. Good morning, guys, and thank you. On Aviation, I realized it was a tough slog from the losses in Q2, but how do we think about the path to breakeven and moving pieces that you saw in Q3 and going forward?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
I think given the backlog that we've seen and deliveries that are scheduled now for Q4, Sheila, I definitely think that we'll see profitability at Aviation in Q4. What we're trying to get that to claw all the way back to kind of a breakeven on the year. Whether we get there or not, it'll probably be close depending on how the demand and service activity and whatnot happens in the quarter. Certainly, we're expecting a profitable Q4 and getting the business back to breakeven.
Sheila Kahyaoglu (Managing Director in Equity Research)
Okay. And then switching over to Bell, I think there's been a lot of noise from third parties on FARA and FLRAA on the future of the program, which I disagree with. But perhaps you could provide us your thoughts, Scott, on how you're thinking about that and if there's any change with the administration next week, how you think about the future of the program too.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Okay. I think we continue to have a lot of dialogue from the working level all the way to very senior members in the Army. There is no question that they are very committed to the FVL programs. It's one of the highest priority programs they have in modernization in the Army. They realize it's absolutely critical to their capability and the role that they play, whether that's in near-peer competition or just in general.
They recognize that they're operating aircraft that are 40, going on 50 years old technology. And for sure, they've been upgraded over the years, but the capability that they're looking for in FVL is something they need. As I said, it's a very high priority. They're rational people. They understand budgetary pressures, and they know there will be budgetary pressures regardless of whether there's a change in administration or not, I'd say over time.
But look, these are very long-cycle programs, and they're committed to the programs, and they've worked hard to make sure that they have the ability to budget and fund these programs. And obviously, from our standpoint, we're very focused on continuing to execute on it. As I said in the prepared remarks, the V-280 continues to fly. It's done great. As you know, we've been over 300 knots flight level.
We've demonstrated level one maneuverability. So the most critical things that they're looking for in speed and range maneuverability, we've demonstrated now. Hard to believe it, but we've been in the flight test program almost three years in December. So on the FVL front, we're making great progress. Starting to build the initial critical components of the aircraft.
So I think our teams, even through the whole COVID process, continue to make great progress and work hard at demonstrating the capability of the products that we've designed and built for the army. So we feel very good about the program.
Sheila Kahyaoglu (Managing Director in Equity Research)
Thank you.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Sure.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Carter Copeland from Melius Research. Please go ahead.
Carter Copeland (President and Co-founder)
Hey, good morning, guys.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Morning, Carter.
Carter Copeland (President and Co-founder)
Just wondered if you could speak about the margin performance at Bell and the productivity commentary there and just if you encountered any COVID-related costs and how you anticipate if there's reimbursement of those or just what it was that you saw that drove that? Thanks.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
So, look, on the cost front, I mean, for sure, there are some costs that are directly incurred. We've had some disruptions here and there, but I have to say that that business, and this has been true in several of our businesses, continued to operate through the whole COVID process. And obviously, we had to put all the proper safety protocols in place, and I think those have been very successful.
But our guys have continued to execute. We're getting the output. We're delivering what the customer needs. Obviously, one of the things we're benefiting from is we've seen a significant uptick in the amount of activity on the installed base contracts on V-22 and H-1, and that's driven some additional volume through some critical parts of the factory, which has yielded good productivity.
So I think that for sure, there have been some minor, relatively speaking, I would say minor costs incurred in the process of working through a difficult time. But really, what you're seeing in terms of margin performance is just good solid performance by our teams and executing well on some increased volume going through the shops.
Carter Copeland (President and Co-founder)
Okay. Great. And then just a quick follow-up on Aviation. Just with respect to Q4 deliveries, what you're looking for there, I mean, I know there have been some challenges getting some aircraft delivered and whatnot due to restrictions. How are you thinking about the remainder of the year just as it's important to think about the 2021 commentary you gave us earlier?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
I would say there's risk here or there on a couple of aircraft. If a customer is unable to show up or take the delivery, again, we're still living in a bit of a dynamic world, obviously, in terms of restrictions around travel and things like that. But at least as we see it right now, it's sort of one-offs here and there. We don't expect it to be a material number.
Obviously, that could change if there's a real big change in terms of travel restriction. But again, there, much like at Bell, the teams are working. We have occasional disruptions on supply-based issues and things like that, but in general, are working our way through it. So I think we feel pretty confident that we'll be able to deliver on the volume that we're expecting to see in Q4 and obviously would expect to see the same in that assumption in terms of how we recover and increase volume in 2021.
Carter Copeland (President and Co-founder)
Okay. Great. Thanks for the call, Scott.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Sure.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of George Shapiro from Shapiro Research. Please go ahead.
George Shapiro (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
Yes. Good morning. Scott, you avoided answering Carter's question about specific deliveries in the fourth quarter. I mean, you're expecting somewhere around 50 deliveries in the fourth quarter?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Oh, I didn't think Carter asked for a specific number. Of course, if he had, I would have evaded the question.
George Shapiro (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
Okay. So you're going to evade my question as well?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
George, you know we don't give a forecast of the exact numbers. Look, it's not an environment probably where we would do that. Certainly, we feel like the order book coming through Q3, we're pleased with the amount of activity. We're pleased with the amount of activity that we're still seeing out there in the marketplace.
Look, I think our expectations are that we'll see a decent recovery coming out of this. This is, as you know, a very different environment than maybe what we've seen before where you had challenges in the SEN market. The used market continues to be robust. If you look at activity in that light to midsize jet market, and the used side is quite strong. I mean, you hear brokers talking about that all the time. We certainly see that in selling our own used aircraft business.
So again, as you know, these things are all sort of subject to something crazy happening from an overall market environment. But right now, we think the demand is looking pretty good. The fundamentals are good, and then we ought to be able to deliver a good fourth quarter.
George Shapiro (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
In terms of orders in the fourth quarter, Scott, you expect orders to be significantly better than Q3? I mean, usually, your fourth quarter is the biggest order quarter.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Well, Q4 can be a decent quarter. George, as you know, usually, the book-to-bill is not there because usually our strongest delivery quarter is in Q4. But as I said, I think right now we are continuing to see good activity. Look, some of those aircraft are things that we'll deliver in Q4, but for sure, we're starting to see bookings and things that are aircraft deliveries are out in 2021 as well.
George Shapiro (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
But I mean, like last year, the implied orders in Q4 were $1.5 billion versus $1.2 billion in Q3. So you did almost $1.2 billion this Q3. Would you expect to see $1.5 billion in orders in Q4?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Again, George, I honestly don't know. I mean, I think that trying to dial in on that number is something we probably won't do because we just don't know, right? I mean, look, our sales teams are out there. They're selling. I'm encouraged by the amount of activity. We're seeing deals close. Aircraft are moving at a good pace. So I mean, we've never guided that number, but we certainly feel good about what's going on in the end market.
George Shapiro (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
The percentage of orders in the quarter from NetJets, can you disclose that?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
We do not, but suffice to say, there are orders in the quarter, and I expect there'll be orders in the quarter for Q4, so again, look, the encouraging part about what's going on in the market is that we're seeing increased activity in flight hours, and we're seeing increased demand. When we talk to guys that are frankly charter operators of our aircraft from companies that are, guys that Wheels Up that are membership-oriented kind of companies and from NetJets, who as you know is a very important partner for us in that fractional market. The demand in all of those areas appears to be quite strong, which is encouraging not only for deliveries this year, but also for building some order book and giving us some visibility into 2021.
George Shapiro (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
Okay. Thanks very much. I'll get back into queue for some more.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Okay. Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of David Strauss from Barclays. Please go ahead.
David Strauss (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
Hey. Thanks. Good morning.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Morning.
David Strauss (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
I guess, asking George's question another way. Did NetJets, or has NetJets, fully rebooked what they debooked in Q1?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Okay. We've never given backlog by aircraft, certainly not by customer. So I don't think we would provide that guidance. I would say from a color standpoint, we feel good about where NetJets is. I think they feel good about where their market is, and they're seeing strong demand. And a lot of it is new customers coming to the market, which is good for business Aviation overall.
David Strauss (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
Okay. And just roughly taking, Scott, the delivery forecast that you're talking about for 2021, it looks like the last time you were at similar kind of volume assessment was a mid-single-digit margin business. Is that the right place to think about for next year, just I guess given the cost cutting that you've done and maybe a bit of a different mix in terms of bigger airplanes coming through?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Look, guys, I mean, obviously, we're not doing 2021 guidance at this point, but when we get to the call in January, we would expect at this point that we'll get back to providing you that kind of revenue and margin expectations for the year.
David Strauss (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
Okay. I guess last one then, looking at Industrial Kautex versus vehicles, was Kautex actually up year over year in the quarter? And I think you commented especially the vehicle side would be up in Q4. Is that sequentially or year over year you're talking about? Thanks.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
From a revenue standpoint, we weren't back to where it was on a year-over-year basis. Obviously, the same is true in the Specialized Vehicles business. We did see a recovery. Frankly, it was stronger than we expected, particularly in North America and Asia. Looks strong. Europe's still a little bit soft. Revenue was not up on a year-over-year basis, but it was up significantly, obviously, from where we were in Q3 and delivered good margins.
David Strauss (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
Okay. Thanks very much.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Sure.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr from Cowen. Please go ahead.
Cai von Rumohr (Managing Director)
Yes. Thanks a lot. And good results. So I was kind of surprised by how good numbers were at Industrial and Bell as well as the extent of the drop at Aviation. Could you maybe walk us through any favorable adjustments or unfavorable adjustments, particularly EACs? And were there any sort of catch-ups or anything in the profit? Because those numbers at Industrial are kind of better than anything I can think of that you've done in a long time. Thanks.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Well, sure, Cai. Well, look, Industrial, that's not the kind of accounting. So we don't do the EACs or catch-ups or things like that. I think that obviously, as we went through the last six months, there was a lot of focus on efficiencies and cost reductions and trying to optimize the operations. So as volume came back into those businesses, they performed well and delivered good margin.
We expected in, for instance, in the Kautex side, we were anticipating all along getting some fairly good mix. A lot of the newer technology, particularly around hybrid vehicles and things like that, where we have a good position and a strong product line, are contributing there as well. So on the Industrial front, it was just delivering and converting well on volume starting to come back into those businesses.
I don't think there's anything particularly notable on the, like I say, I think the best color to give you on Bell is that we really have seen nice growth in the aftermarket side, particularly on the military programs and H-1s and V-22s. And that's driven additional volume in critical technologies for us, right? It's a lot of our gearboxes, rotating things, and blades, and things of that nature, which help to drive good productivity and efficiency in terms of utilization of the factories. And that falls through as good margin business.
Cai von Rumohr (Managing Director)
Thanks. And then so Bell, you consistently talk of the drop in margins to 10%-12%, and the margins pretty consistently go up. How should we think about where your margins might be next year?
I mean, does 10%-12% assume kind of the level of military aftermarket you were seeing, and therefore that's now too low? Or are we going to see a steep drop-off? And if so, why is it? Because it looks like you would be headed for a cliff. Maybe talk a little bit about the trend we should expect in 2021.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Cai, I think that we'll obviously get the guidance in 2021 at a later time. Overall, we work again on these, in some cases, multi-year contracts. We've had additional volume come in. As you know, as you do future contracts, these are negotiated deals, and you expect to see some pressure on some of those margins once that higher volume is in there and goes into your base numbers.
A lot of it will depend, frankly, for us on what level of R&D do we continue to spend around these FARA and these FLRAA programs, which will certainly pressure. As you know, those are cost-share programs. The government's funding a lot of that, but there is still a contribution for us to have to make in support of those programs. There's still a lot of work to do there.
So that will put some margin pressure on a go-forward basis as well. And over the long term, it'll depend a lot on how we do on volume of bringing in additional FMS cases and things of that nature. So look, I still think this is a low double-digit margin business. We've always said that 10%-12% number. Originally, people didn't believe us and said, "No, it's going to be 8%-9%." Now people don't believe us and say it's going to be 13%-14%. So on the average, it sounds like 10%-12% is probably about right.
Cai von Rumohr (Managing Director)
Last one. Could you give us any sizing of the EACs you've been seeing there at Bell as you come down the end on the V-22?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Not at Bell. I mean, the program adjustment for the quarter was $22.5 million compared to 2021 and last year. On a year-over-year basis, for the total Textron, there was no big V. Yeah. There's no change on a year-over-year basis, really. And look, I think we had good margins in the system side as well.
And I think part of that is, look, we're sort of turning the corner, I would say, on the ship-to-shore development program. We've started getting more craft deliveries. The production lines are starting to run better. We're starting to get supplied parts coming in at the right time. Obviously, we've got the initial units now from the definitized production contract are starting to enter into production.
So that's a program that obviously is going to start to be a contributor to the profit. And the rest of the business, frankly, continues to perform well. And we expect that as we see some of these new things like the CAF CAS program start to roll in, again, that'll generate revenue and good margins. So I think that Systems is also going to run in that low double-digit margin area.
Cai von Rumohr (Managing Director)
Great. Thank you very much.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Yep.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Kristine Liwag (Head of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research)
Hi. Good morning, guys.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Morning.
Kristine Liwag (Head of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research)
I just wanted to circle back on Textron Aviation. For the bookings that you've had so far, can you provide more color on the pricing environment and competitive dynamics?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
No. No. Look, we had slight positive pricing in the quarter, and you'll see that, but look, the market, I think, again, it benefits from not having this huge number of used aircraft out there, particularly not new, young used aircraft. That puts pricing on customers considering do they buy a used aircraft or new aircraft, so that's a positive for us. I think, look, I think we all know in general, people were planning higher production rates this year than what the demand has turned out to be in the market, so you do occasionally see deals where someone's trying to move aircraft, and we're trying to be much more disciplined about that and instead rein in our production volumes and maintain reasonable pricing, and I think that's what you'll see in the quarter is that we had slightly positive pricing.
Kristine Liwag (Head of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research)
Thanks. And also, as flight departments plan out their fleets, to what extent has fewer commercial airline routes affected their buying decisions so far? And when you think about customers who are on the cusp of ordering an aircraft that hasn't quite signed the dotted line, what's the variable that they're looking at that would make them more confident in ordering?
Is it more visibility with the economy? Is it a vaccine? Easing border restrictions? Can you just provide more color in terms of their decision tree?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
It's hard to say. I mean, it'd be anecdotal, I guess. I mean, every customer is a bit different. But there's no doubt that as an industry, I mean, we're seeing new aircraft. I believe that, again, charters and clubs and fractional owners are also seeing this, that you have people that are coming into business Aviation that have not historically been in business Aviation or owned an equity piece of an aircraft. And clearly, again, the macro environment out there right now is there some healthy dynamic to it?
There probably is. Is it also the fact that for lots of companies and individuals that aren't around hub airports? We all know that when you see the dramatic reduction in the number of commercial flights, particularly if you have to connect through someplace, the reduction in the number of flights is making it very difficult for people to get from point A to point B in the country without taking a whole day doing it, so I think the convenience factor, which a lot of customers obviously have enjoyed for many, many years, is becoming more appealing to a lot of other folks as it becomes harder to travel commercially, and look, our view over the long term is maybe some of that is people that might charter or maybe they go back to commercial airlines someday, but we think a lot of people, once they've experienced the convenience and the productivity and efficiency of traveling private, they'll stick with it.
Kristine Liwag (Head of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research)
Thanks for the color.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of John Raviv from Citi. Please go ahead.
John Raviv (Managing Director)
Hey, good morning, everyone. Scott, just kind of big picture, what's the visibility and confidence to getting back to sort of what I'll call 18, 19 segment profit levels? What's in your control versus what's not in your control?
Pre-COVID, we used to talk about Aviation needing pricing to deliver better margin. You seem to have pricing now. Industrial had room for self-help pre-COVID. That's still the case. So just holistically, what's the path back here?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Well, look, I mean, obviously, it's different in each one of the businesses. First of all, obviously, in Bell and Systems that have not seen nearly as much disruption going through this have continued on delivering good margins. I think Bell's in a very good place. Systems, we all know, needed some self-help, particularly around the Ship-to-Shore Connector program, which, as I said, is steadily improving.
And we're starting to feel good about that, not only in executing what we have, but having got the first production contract under our belt. So I think those guys are going well. Things like the CAF CAS program, which, look, that was a non-trivial investment for us to get all those aircraft ready. And now putting them to work will be a nice turn in the performance of that business. So I think those guys are fairly straightforward.
If you looked in the Industrial businesses, Kautex generally converts well and performs well. And they, I think, are showing that as we come back through the auto cycle. And I expect them to continue to perform well. As you know, the volume is usually lighter in the automotive industry in Q4.
But I think that, again, they're getting back into their normal stride and will do well. But we know we had things to do in the Industrial side around channel development in particular. And I think that we're seeing the benefits of our relationship with Bass Pro on the Tracker side. Our Arctic Cat channel is also performing well. And we're seeing good retail volume through those channels. So I think the cost structure, as we've talked about before, we're consolidating some facilities and reducing footprints.
And as a result of those restructuring activities, I think we come out of this cycle in TSV in a much better place. So that should drive improved performance versus what we've seen in the past. Look, Aviation is very much a volume game. We've obviously had to go through some very difficult restructuring here just in terms of adjusting for a lower volume than where we were in 2018, 2019 timeframe.
As I've said, I think we'll probably get half of that back. It's kind of how we think about 2021 and then get back to the road that we were on when we get into the future years. I think our product lineup has never been better, right? When you look at where we are with Latitudes and Longitudes, SkyCourier coming along very nicely. So it's been a rough year for sure for that team. But they continue to make the kind of progress in terms of the positioning of the products and the business and the cost that we should be able to get back on track years of going to 2021 and beyond.
John Raviv (Managing Director)
Thanks, Scott Fultor. Scott is following up on Aviation comment. He talked about getting back to the previous road that we were on. I mean, is a double-digit margin in that segment a pipe dream at this point, or is that a realistic goal? And also, I just say thinking about production rate as a function of that, you talked about getting half deliveries back in 2021. What does it say about production rate in 2021? Thank you.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Look, guys, I mean, obviously, we've always been trying to target getting back to double-digit. We were making good progress, I think, towards getting there. But as I said, you do need to have volume, right? I mean, we have to have a market that has got enough demand that we can get volumes back there to do that.
And I think we were getting there. A big part of it was, obviously, this year having a full year of longitude. And obviously, that I mean, we have a full year of longitude, but overall, the business has seen a dramatic reduction in demand. So as I said, I think we'll get about half of that back.
So when we think about the production run rates for 2021, it's targeting a delivery that's going to be somewhere in between where we are this year and where we were in 2019. So we're setting production run rates to achieve that. Obviously, run rates increase through the course of the year because we expect, again, when you think about 2022, that you're back up maybe to where you were in 2019.
But this is a plan, guys, right? I mean, to think that we have that kind of visibility in this market, we haven't had that kind of visibility in this market in a very, very long time. So again, I feel very good about the macro environment.The fact that there's not used aircraft out there, the fact that we have a very nice product lineup with it makes us feel comfortable that we should be thinking that way and planning that way. But obviously, we'll make production line and volume decisions as things play out.
John Raviv (Managing Director)
I appreciate that, Scott. Thank you so much.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Ron Epstein from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Ron Epstein (Senior Equity Analyst)
Hey, yeah. Good morning, guys.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Good morning, Ron.
Ron Epstein (Senior Equity Analyst)
Maybe on the business jet side, just following up on the whole string of questions that we've had. When the time comes to ramp back up, right, which hopefully isn't too far out, how difficult will that be, right? I mean, given the restructuring that's going on, how is your workforce in Wichita? And do you have a sense on how your supply chain's doing?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Well, look, I don't think it's that difficult to ramp back up. Ron, I mean, we're certainly not straining our supply chain, obviously. So we have to work very closely with guys like Pratt and Williams and Honeywell around volumes on engines, which obviously are a pretty long lead item. Avionics, etc. I mean, look, there's nothing magic about it, right?
I mean, we work with our supply chain all the time to do these forecasts and kind of line things up. Frankly, if I looked at some of the things that have been the longest lead times and the most constraining things in the supply base, which typically, as you know, around bearings and castings and forgings, and to be honest, right now, there's a lot of capacity that's been freed up. I mean, these are common suppliers to commercial Aviation.
And so as those volumes have dropped, the supply chain, frankly, our biggest struggles over the last four or five years, I mean, the team works through it. And obviously, it hasn't been a problem in the end. But there's a lot of work that goes into ensuring that we get the right supply and source of supply for a lot of those critical items. And that was strained because of the very, very strong demand in the commercial side. Obviously, that's not the case today. So we still have to do a good job of forecasting and working with suppliers. But I'd say solving those issues is easier than it has been for the last 10 years.
Ron Epstein (Senior Equity Analyst)
And then maybe another question, another Aviation question, if I may. If you look at the fleet utilization today, do you guys have a sense on how many Citations are being used just for personal leisure travel as opposed to business travel? And I guess my question is this, right?
When we get to a post-COVID world and you have people flying for business and for all the other reasons they fly, one of the things that kind of seems to me that could happen is business Aviation post-COVID could be actually far more robust than it was pre-COVID because of what happened during COVID. So my question is this. Do you see any evidence of that? Is that something you guys talk about, or am I completely off base?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
No, look, I think that's the macro environment that I think is a positive, all right? First of all, to answer your first question, I mean, we don't have the data, right? I mean, we know all of our Citations flying. We have very, very good information on all that stuff. But nobody checks a box that says, "Hey, this is a personal trip or a business trip."
So I mean, we don't have that data, obviously, to break it out. But I think we know when you see the market coming back and you got 85% of the flight hours, we all know that business conventions aren't happening. You guys aren't having conferences. I mean, we all know there's nowhere near as much business travel happening today as there was a year ago.
And so we know that, therefore, that gap and that increase has a lot of personal use going on of aircraft. And certainly, we know this from discussions with our charter operators, the club guys, our fractional guys. Everybody knows that there is a lot more personal travel going on than you would normally see.
I mean, if we look at Europe in August, it was over 100% of a year ago. That's not business travel in Europe in August, right? So you see a much higher utilization of these aircraft for personal reasons right now. And so the case we would make, and certainly it's how we think about it, is when you think about business travel coming back, and it is starting to come back, right?
And there's no question more people are traveling and moving around, but not anywhere near the scale of what you would have seen a year ago, that just as you're seeing more people opt to use business Aviation for personal reasons, you're going to see more people choose to use business Aviation for business reasons. And so you're going to have both higher utilization in personal and higher utilization in business. And therefore, that's what I say drives a better macro environment than we've seen in a long time.
And again, as we look at orders, as we look at customers, it is that kind of a mix in anticipation of people already using it personally and anticipating using it more on the business front. So that's the reason, frankly, for us to feel bullish about why this will recover in a positive way. And again, also, of course, you have this dynamic of not having this large used market out there. So I think we'll see aggregate demand increase, and it will look to the new aircraft demand because you don't have a lot of new used aircraft out there to compete with it.
Ron Epstein (Senior Equity Analyst)
Yeah, that makes sense. And then one last one, if I'm kind of changing subjects completely. Before the pandemic and kind of the whole world got turned upside down, you guys had made a bunch of progress on reshaping the Industrial portfolio. Are you comfortable with where it is, or is there still work to do there?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Look, there's always work to do, but we're comfortable with where we are. And we're very focused, obviously, at this point on executing and operating the businesses, and that's what we're doing. And I think it's working.
Ron Epstein (Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay, great. Thanks.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Sure.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Noah Poponak (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Hi, Good morning, everyone.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Hey, Noah.
Noah Poponak (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Scott, last quarter, you had provided the forecast that 2020 Cessna jet deliveries would decline 30%-40% for the year. The first three quarters are down 40%-50%. Is the fourth quarter decline less than that 30%-40% to still pull you into that range for the year, or does the fourth quarter year-over-year decline look more like what it's been year to date?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
No, I expect that we'll see some recovery on those percentage basis as we go into Q4 based on the order book and the level of activity we're seeing in the market.
Noah Poponak (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Got it. Okay. So that 30-40 for the year stands?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
That's still how we're thinking about the year, correct?
Noah Poponak (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Got it. And then maybe looking at Bell Commercial somewhat similarly, the unit change year-over-year there improved nicely in the third quarter versus the first half of the year. Maybe you could just elaborate on what you're seeing from your customers in that market and how you're thinking about 2021 at this point?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Well, look, I think that we've certainly seen some softness on the commercial side, and it's largely driven by the fact that it's, like, Aviation, and a lot of things. It's hard to get a lot of face time with customers. It's hard to kind of just get deals done. As you know, our Bell Commercial business is heavy on foreign customers.
A lot of fleet operators, a lot of our bigger aircraft are international, and it's still a challenge to sell and do demos, and frankly, a lot of these are government or private public kind of things, and in a lot of the world, it's hard to get deals done, so I think we'll continue to see that, and again, how does that change into 2021? I wish I could tell you the answer to that.
I mean, it depends on how the virus is progressing and what different countries do around governments really getting back to work and getting deals done. So it's been a challenge through the course of the year, and I think it'll continue to be one as we go forward.
Noah Poponak (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Do you feel like you have less visibility on sort of where to set production there for next year than you do with how you're speaking to the Cessna jet business?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
No, I think we're pretty well set on what we think the production levels need to be. Again, these are relatively long-cycle production, especially when you get into customization and things like that. So we've made the adjustments that we think we need to make in terms of production. But like I said, I think the only difference that's a little more challenging maybe is the fact that a lot of them are international customers, so.
Noah Poponak (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Yeah. Okay. And Frank, on cash flow, working capital has been a not insignificant use of cash for a pretty long time. And in the nice cash flow number you have in the quarter, it looks to be a source. Are you at a pivot point where with all the new jets in Cessna and some churn in some of the other businesses, you've had to use working capital where you can now have that as a source of cash sustainably for a while moving forward, or is that a bad read?
Frank Connor (CFO)
No, I mean, look, it moves around, obviously, depending on seasonality of the business and other factors. I think the teams have done a really nice job in decelerating as we went into the pandemic and being very focused on working capital utilization and cash generation. And that's reflected in the numbers.
As we mentioned earlier in the call, we'll continue to see, I think, some liquidation of inventory in the fourth quarter, just on the higher volumes that we would typically see in that fourth quarter. But then we would expect working capital to kind of seasonally move around as we move into 2021. So we've been very focused on it. I think we're doing a better job of managing it, but there's always going to be some quarter-to-quarter volatility to it. But the teams have been very focused on it and done a nice job with it.
Noah Poponak (Managing Director of Equity Research)
Okay. Thanks very much.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Seth Seifman (VP and Equity Research Analyst)
Thanks very much, and good morning. I was wondering if the payroll tax holiday has been a benefit on the cash flow this year, and if so, if you could quantify it.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
It's been a benefit. We won't quantify it, but it has been a bit of a benefit, but it hasn't been a kind of significantly material number on cash.
Seth Seifman (VP and Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. And then if we were to end the year today, what kind of change in pension expense would you be looking at for 2021? And have you given any more thought to mark-to-market accounting?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, look, there's lots of things that go into the pension calculation, so I can't really kind of snap a line today because we haven't done all of that analysis. From a discount rate standpoint, their interest rates are down a bit, so that probably creates some headwind. There's a little bit of tailwind associated with just the averaging of various gains and amortizations and things like that over time, so it's ultimately kind of hard to tell where that will fall out.
We wouldn't expect it to be a big headwind as we look at 2021, but it may be some headwind, and kind of I'm not going to kind of comment around looking at different kind of accounting policies vis-à-vis pension. We'll save that for if and when we were to do anything in that regard.
Seth Seifman (VP and Equity Research Analyst)
Thanks. And then maybe one bigger picture, Scott. In the past, I feel like discussions of the business jet demand environment have often revolved around politics and elections and tax rates and all that stuff. And we're potentially looking at a change in administration and a higher corporate tax rate. Is all that stuff kind of irrelevant this time given the other demand drivers that you've talked about, or maybe we've just made too much of it in the past?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Well, yeah, I don't know. So it's a good question. I mean, I'd say normally, when you see uncertainty or question, and for sure, we've seen that before, right, where people are kind of waiting to understand a tax policy or the outcome of an election.
Look, no markets like uncertainty, obviously. It's kind of interesting, obviously, this year because of the pandemic, there's just so much other swirl going around out there that maybe it's hard to see what role the politics is playing. I mean, generally speaking, I'd say we've seen that in the past, right, where people kind of hold off until they have visibility, and then it's kind of interesting because in the end, everybody goes kind of back to where they were, right?
It's just regardless of what the answer is in terms of a political outcome, it just seems like this year, because of all the other noise around the pandemic, it doesn't seem to be playing as prominent a role in discussions, but I'm sure there's some of it out there, but I think in the end, as we know, we've seen this before in election years. Even when we see it in election years, once you get past the election, people kind of get back to life. I mean, and I suspect that would be a dynamic year as well.
Seth Seifman (VP and Equity Research Analyst)
Great. Thanks very much.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of George Shapiro from Shapiro Research. Please go ahead.
George Shapiro (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
Yes. I just wanted to follow up on the margin at Bell and Systems. I mean, the Bell margin was the highest from my records since the fourth quarter of 2012, and the Systems was the highest since the third quarter of 2009. So I guess my question is, I mean, obviously, Scott, you've said the Bell margin's not sustainable, but the Systems margin still seems to be sustainable, or it's a little bit abnormally high this quarter?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
It's probably a little on the high side, George. I think, as I said, we've been seeing steady improvement, and a lot of that is self-help around getting the Ship-to-Shore Connector program squared away. I do think the teams made really good progress on that, and that'll continue to be a contributor. We have had things like the CAF CAS program, which, again, as I said, has required investment, which is now converting into revenue and margin, which will help us on a go-forward basis.
There's also a lot of new programs. There's a lot of R&D programs that are in there around modernization, which all that will balance out, I think, to be, as I said, I think, kind of a low double-digit margin business.
George Shapiro (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
And what gets the margin at Bell down to the range you've talked about? I mean, there's been some expectation that this year would be weaker because you had the new V-22 buy. I mean, obviously, getting some benefit by growing aftermarket support for that program. But so what happens to get the margin to drop as much as it seems to have to drop to get kind of to your guide?
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Well, again, I think we are ramping up R&D activity, and we'll see that continue into next year as we've got more and more resources coming in, particularly on the FARA program. Well, I expect as we continue to make progress on FLRAA, we've seen a lot of requirements work here in this early phase of the next phase of that program, and you'll start to see more engineering and R&D as we sort of head towards kind of a PDR capability on that platform. And I think, look, we are getting benefits of having more volume going through a lot of these shops.
And obviously, as you renegotiate and do future contracts, that volume goes in there, and we'll get negotiated down to a more nominal margin on some of those things. But we are certainly. I'm sorry. Go ahead, George.
George Shapiro (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
Sorry about that. This is kind of a trivial question, but you delivered one Citation X in the quarter. I think the last time you delivered one was the first quarter of 2019. So is there anything unique with that one? Was that one just sitting in inventory? If you had any color on that.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah. I mean, we've obviously phased that program out. So just the last couple of aircraft, which we've been using for other reasons, are just finally selling out of inventory.
George Shapiro (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)
Okay. Thanks again very much.
Scott Donnelly (Chairman and CEO)
Sure.
Eric Salander (VP of Investor Relations)
Okay, Greg. Yeah. That concludes the call on our end.
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Teleconference. You may now disconnect.