Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
- United Airlines anticipates benefiting from a structural shift in global capacity, as delays in wide-body aircraft production like the Boeing 777X and grounding of older models lead to supply constraints, creating a favorable setup for their global long-haul network.
- United Airlines is well-positioned to capitalize on the evolving industry backdrop in 2025, focusing on building connectivity in its mid-continent hubs, investing in products that customers want to buy, and expecting material tailwinds from accelerating corporate demand, particularly important in Q1 of 2025.
- United Airlines is expanding internationally by leveraging its strong global gateways, adding new destinations like Nuuk, Greenland, which strengthens the brand, enhances customer profiles, and boosts MileagePlus sign-ups, expecting profitable growth both within and outside partner hubs.
- United Airlines faced significant operational disruptions due to the CrowdStrike outage, resulting in the cancellation of approximately 2,500 to 2,600 flights, which may negatively impact revenue and customer satisfaction.
- Delays in aircraft deliveries from Boeing, including the 777X and 787 models, could hinder United's capacity growth plans and affect their ability to meet future demand, potentially impacting profitability.
- The production lines for wide-body aircraft are not keeping up with demand over the next 3 to 5 years, which might pose challenges for United in expanding their international network and capitalizing on growth opportunities.
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Margin Expansion Outlook
Q: Can you update us on your path to double-digit pretax margins by 2026?
A: We are confident that industry evolution will lead to higher margins. In 2011, major airlines had pretax margins between 3% and 4%. Southwest's capacity commitment led to margin expansion of 9 points over three years. Today, with similar dynamics and unprofitable capacity exiting the market, we expect a meaningful expansion of margins over the next three years. -
CapEx Expectations Amid Boeing Delays
Q: Given Boeing's delays, should we expect CapEx at the lower end of your $7-9 billion range next year?
A: Yes, due to production delays, we have a downward bias to CapEx but expect it to stay within the $7-9 billion range. We'll provide more precise guidance in January. -
Impact of Boeing Strike on Operations
Q: How is the Boeing strike affecting United's schedule?
A: The strike has an immediate impact as aircraft deliveries have stopped. We are encouraged that Boeing is focused on the long term, and while there are short-term impacts, we believe they are positioning for a strong turnaround. -
CASM-ex and RASM Expectations
Q: When will RASM growth exceed CASM growth?
A: We expect that inflection to occur in 2025. CASM-ex peaked in Q3 and will decline into Q4 and further into 2025. We're focused on driving profitability through efficiency while continuing to invest in the customer. -
Unprofitable Capacity Exiting Market
Q: Is increased capacity during peaks the new normal as competitors struggle?
A: There's an incredible amount of unprofitable capacity in the U.S. marketplace. We've seen it exiting at a rapid pace since mid-August, which continues into next year. This improves the setup for higher margins as international and business traffic remain strong. -
MileagePlus and Kinective Contribution
Q: How will MileagePlus and Kinective Media contribute to margin expansion in 2025?
A: In '25, we're in an investment phase, making a little money, but acceleration begins in '26 and beyond. The program is performing incredibly well; revenue from the premier population was up 9% and drove the majority of revenue growth. -
Corporate Travel Recovery
Q: Are you seeing signs of recovery in corporate travel?
A: Yes, corporate traffic is accelerating, particularly important in Q1. Coastal hubs are stronger than interior hubs; professional services, financial services, and tech are growing fastest. All verticals are growing, and corporate traffic looks good. -
RASM Outlook for Q4 and Q1
Q: What's your RASM expectation for Q4 and differences across regions?
A: While I can't provide specifics for Q4, for Q1 domestic yields were down 9% in July, down 2% in September, and up 3% in January. The yield environment is looking good, and Q1 is shaping up well with business traffic rebounding. -
International Expansion Impact
Q: How will new international routes impact results next year?
A: Adding destinations like Greenland will have a small system impact but great effects on our brand and MileagePlus sign-ups. Our global gateways allow us to fly successfully to a broad range of destinations, and we'll continue to grow profitably. -
Growth in Basic Economy Volume
Q: Is United aiming to become the largest supplier of discount capacity domestically?
A: Our intent is to expand margins by offering a full range of products. Basic economy represents about 15-16% of our domestic passenger volumes. Offering basic economy is profitable for United and unfavorable for competitors. -
Regional Recovery Trends
Q: Which regions are standing out in recovery?
A: Coastal hubs are stronger than interior hubs. Corporate travel in professional services, financial services, and tech is growing fastest. All verticals are growing, and corporate traffic looks good. -
China Market Outlook
Q: What's the outlook for flights to China?
A: China demand is entirely different today; we're operating three daily flights but don't anticipate significantly more soon. The negative RASM impact of China will dissipate as we lap the increase in schedule.
Research analysts covering United Airlines Holdings.