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United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record fourth-quarter profit with pre-tax margin up 3.2 pts YoY (8.9% GAAP; 9.7% adjusted) on $14.70B revenue (+7.8% YoY); diluted EPS $2.95 and adjusted EPS $3.26; cargo +30% YoY and loyalty +12% YoY supported the beat .
  • Unit revenue inflected: TRASM +1.6% YoY; management expects domestic RASM to turn “solidly positive” YoY in 1Q25, with continued international RASM improvement—key near-term stock catalysts alongside Starlink rollout and buybacks .
  • 2025 guide: adjusted EPS $11.50–$13.50 and 1Q25 adjusted EPS $0.75–$1.25; 2025 adjusted capex < $7B; fleet plan indicates 71 NB/10 WB deliveries and YE2025 mainline of 1,054 aircraft (subject to change) .
  • Structural narrative unchanged: premium +10% YoY, Basic Economy +20–21% YoY, corporate +7–16% YoY in 4Q; management reiterates a path to double-digit pre-tax margins as industry capacity normalizes and international supply remains tight .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record 4Q profit “well ahead of expectations,” with adjusted pre-tax margin up 3.5 pts YoY to 9.7% and adjusted EPS $3.26; TRASM +1.6% YoY on capacity +6.2% .
  • Revenue mix strength: premium revenue +10% YoY; corporate revenue +7–16% (flown business +16% in 4Q); loyalty +12% YoY; cargo +30% YoY in 4Q .
  • Management tone confident: “We enter 2025 with demand trends continuing to accelerate… on the path to double-digit pre-tax margins” — CEO Scott Kirby .

What Went Wrong

  • Underlying cost pressure: CASM-ex +5.0% YoY in 4Q; management flagged 2–3 pts CASM-ex pressure in 2025 from labor, partly offset by utilization/gauge benefits in 2026–2027 .
  • Domestic RASM was still −1.9% in 4Q (though improving into 1Q), and CASM-ex outpaced TRASM in 4Q; China remained a headwind (now lapped exiting 4Q) .
  • Aircraft OEM delays persist (Boeing/Airbus), moderating 2025 gauge/capacity benefits and biasing capex lower; China demand structurally below pre-COVID levels .

Financial Results

Headline P&L and Margins (company-reported)

MetricQ4 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Operating Revenue ($B)$13.63 $14.99 $14.84 $14.70
Diluted EPS (GAAP)$1.81 $3.96 $2.90 $2.95
Adjusted Diluted EPS (Non-GAAP)$2.00 $4.14 $3.33 $3.26
Operating Margin (GAAP)7.3% 12.9% 10.5% 10.2%
Pre-tax Margin (GAAP)5.7% 11.6% 8.7% 8.9%
Pre-tax Margin (Adj.)6.2% 12.1% 9.7% 9.7%

Unit Revenue and Costs

MetricQ4 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
TRASM (¢)18.48 18.81 18.20 18.77
PRASM (¢)16.85 17.17 16.63 16.95
CASM (¢)17.13 16.39 16.28 16.85
CASM-ex (¢)12.28 12.10 12.26 12.89

KPIs and Operating Drivers

KPIQ4 2023Q4 2024
Passengers (000s)41,779 44,344
RPMs (mm)60,671 64,463
ASMs (mm)73,727 78,298
Load Factor82.3% 82.3%
Avg Fuel Price ($/gal)$3.13 $2.40
Aircraft in Fleet (end)1,358 1,406

Segment Mix – Q4 2024 Passenger Revenue

RegionPassenger Revenue ($mm)YoY %PRASM YoYYield YoYASMs (mm)
Domestic8,138 5.7% −1.9% −0.1% 43,497
Europe2,092 9.5% 7.1% 4.9% 12,996
ME/India/Africa258 −11.0% 5.2% 7.3% 1,760
Atlantic (incl. Europe/MEA)2,350 6.8% 7.1% 5.5% 14,756
Pacific1,477 11.2% 4.1% −2.3% 11,540
Latin America1,310 9.5% 0.4% 0.8% 8,505
International Total5,137 8.7% 4.3% 1.8% 34,801
Consolidated13,275 6.9% 0.6% 0.6% 78,298

Notes: 4Q capacity +6.2% YoY; TRASM +1.6% YoY; CASM −1.6% YoY; CASM-ex +5.0% YoY .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted Diluted EPS1Q 2025Not previously provided$0.75–$1.25 New
Adjusted Diluted EPSFY 2025Not previously provided$11.50–$13.50 New
Adjusted Total CapexFY 2025Not previously provided< $7B New
Domestic RASM1Q 2025N/A“Solidly positive” YoY expected Positive
International RASM1Q 2025N/AContinued improvement expected Positive
Profit Sharing Accrual1Q 2025N/A$40–$60M expected New
Fleet DeliveriesFY 2025 planN/A71 NB / 10 WB planned (subject to OEM) New
YE2025 Mainline FleetYE 2025EN/A1,054 mainline; total regional 428 (plan) New
Pre-tax Margin PathMulti-yearReiterated trajectory“Path to double-digit pre-tax margin” reiterated Reaffirm

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Prev-2)Q3 2024 (Prev-1)Q4 2024 (Current)Trend
AI/Tech & StarlinkApp leadership; TSA Touchless ID; customer rebooking; foundation for Starlink deal Innovation leadership; Starlink agreement announced Starlink a “game changer” with free, fast Wi‑Fi; unlocks digital/loyalty monetization Accelerating
Supply Chain/OEMGeneral delivery delays; capex managed Boeing 787/777X delays; capex downward bias 2025 deliveries reduced vs prior; FY25 capex < $7B Constraining near-term gauge
Tariffs/Macro/Regulatory (ATC)N/AN/AFAA/ATC staffing a significant driver of delays; optimism on policy focus Improving policy focus
Product/SegmentationPremium resilience; Basic Economy +38% YoY in 2Q Premium RASM +2%; Basic Economy volumes +21% YoY Premium revenue +10%; Basic Economy ~21% of domestic pax; merchandising expansion ahead Strong mix tailwind
Regional TrendsAtlantic strength; Pacific expansion Pacific PRASM challenged; China headwinds Atlantic PRASM +7.1%; Pacific PRASM +4.1% (improved); LatAm stabilizing Improving ex-China
Loyalty/Kinective MediaKinective launched; NPS highs Early Kinective scale; MileagePlus momentum Loyalty +12%; co-brand spend +9%; >1M new cards; media ramp plan Monetization ramp

Management Commentary

  • “United had a unique strategy coming out of COVID… 2024 was a strong year across the board… we enter 2025 with demand trends continuing to accelerate which puts us on the path to double-digit pre-tax margins.” — CEO Scott Kirby .
  • “Q4 TRASM increased 1.6% YoY on a 6.2% increase in capacity… we project domestic RASM will turn solidly positive in Q1.” — CCO Andrew Nocella .
  • “We delivered record fourth quarter earnings… adjusted pre-tax margin of 9.7%… full year adjusted EPS of $10.61.” — CFO Mike Leskinen .
  • “Starlink… is going to be a game changer… Fast and free Wi‑Fi… unlock a host of new digital benefits.” — CCO Andrew Nocella .

Q&A Highlights

  • Domestic RASM inflection: United expects positive domestic RASM in 1Q25; corporate demand accelerating, especially in coastal hubs .
  • Cost framework: CASM-ex peaked in 3Q; declines into 4Q and further into 2025; 2–3 pts labor headwind in 2025; gauge-driven CASM-ex relief in 2026–2027 .
  • Starlink and merchandising: Free, fast Wi‑Fi plus seatback screens to enable personalization and new high-margin revenue streams (Kinective Media, MileagePlus) .
  • Fleet/gauge: 2025 a “pause year” on gauge due to OEM delays; significant gauge tailwinds expected from A321/737 MAX families beginning 2026–2027; growing optimism on MAX 10 .
  • Capital returns and balance sheet: $81M repurchased in 4Q; $1.4B authorization remaining; targeting <2x net leverage in 2025; free cash flow around 2024’s $3.4B .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus estimates were unavailable at time of analysis due to data access limits; numeric comparisons vs. Street consensus cannot be shown. The company characterized 4Q as “well ahead of expectations,” but did not disclose consensus numbers in filings/press materials .
  • Implication: Street models likely need to lift near-term domestic RASM and 1Q25 EPS given management’s “solidly positive” domestic RASM commentary and 1Q25 EPS guidance range .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Positive unit revenue momentum into 1Q25 and strong FY25 EPS guide ($11.50–$13.50) position UAL for continued margin expansion as domestic RASM turns positive and international remains robust .
  • Mix advantages (premium, Basic Economy, loyalty) and Starlink-enabled merchandising are durable differentiators that can support TRASM outperformance and incremental high-margin revenue streams .
  • Near-term cost headwinds (labor-driven CASM-ex) are manageable; structural gauge benefits and utilization improvements kick in 2026–2027, providing a multi-year CASM-ex tailwind .
  • OEM delays cap 2025 gauge but reduce capex (<$7B), aiding FCF and buyback capacity; deleveraging on track to <2x net leverage with $1.4B buyback authorization outstanding .
  • Regional setup favorable: Atlantic and Pacific PRASM improved markedly; China headwinds now largely lapped; LatAm stabilizing .
  • Policy/ATC focus from the new administration could reduce delay-driven inefficiencies, a potential operational and cost tailwind .

All data above sourced from United’s 4Q/FY24 press release and 8‑K exhibits (including Investor Update), the 4Q24 earnings call, and prior quarter materials as cited.