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UNITED STATES ANTIMONY CORP (UAMY)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue accelerated sharply to $6.87M*, vs S&P Global consensus of $4.47M* (beat), while diluted EPS was -$0.010* vs -$0.010 consensus (in line); EBITDA was -$0.49M* as mix and ramp costs weighed. [Values retrieved from S&P Global]*
  • FY 2024 marked a turning point: revenue $14.94M (+72% YoY), gross profit $3.47M (vs -$3.34M in 2023), and net loss narrowed to $1.73M; cash and equivalents ended at $18.17M with only $0.33M of debt.
  • Operational catalysts: Mexico’s Madero smelter restart with first ore shipments, seven furnaces refurbished and 15 hires; Alaska ore trucking targeted for summer, aiming to vertically integrate and improve margins.
  • Guidance stance: historically no guidance; management introduced directional commentary that 2025 consolidated revenues are “being currently estimated” without a numeric range.
  • Strategic narrative: strengthening supply chain security (DoD grants in quiet period), addressing tariff risk, and building investor visibility (anticipated Russell 2000 addition) to support medium-term re-rating.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record FY performance and structural improvement: “This past year was a significant turning point… record revenues of $14.9 million, up 72% YoY… gross profit up 204% YoY.”
  • Zeolite operations stabilized and scaled: run-time reached 98.4% in Q4; Preston granule capacity lifted from ~4 tons/hour to >12 tons/hour; lease extended 10 years.
  • Supply diversification and restart: reopened Mexico operations; three international antimony ore suppliers secured; engineered capacity up to 200 tons/month at Mexico.

What Went Wrong

  • Zeolite profitability still negative in FY 2024 due to catch-up repairs and maintenance, with a ~$0.6M gross loss in the segment.
  • Continued net loss despite improvement and ramp investments; management refrained from committing to near-term quarterly profitability.
  • External overhangs: DoD grants uncertain (quiet period, timing risk) and potential tariff exposure; management is engaged but outcomes remain outside company control.

Financial Results

Quarterly Performance vs Prior Periods and Estimates

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$3.663*$2.572*$6.872*
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.0018*-$0.0100*-$0.0099*
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$1.250*$0.424*$1.310*
Gross Margin (%)34.13%*16.48%*19.06%*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$0.189*-$0.769*-$0.490*
EBITDA Margin (%)5.15%*-29.91%*-7.13%*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Q4 2024 Actual vs S&P Global Consensus

MetricConsensusActual# of Estimates
Revenue ($USD Millions)$4.473*$6.872*1*
Diluted EPS ($USD)-$0.010*-$0.0099*1*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)n/a-$0.490*n/a

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

FY 2024 Segment Mix (Context)

SegmentFY 2024 Revenue ($USD Millions)YoY Growth
Antimony$11.1+88%
Zeolite$2.9+19%

KPIs and Balance Sheet (Q4/FY context)

KPIValueContext
Cash & Equivalents$18.17MYE 2024 cash strength
Debt$0.33MOne equipment note
Zeolite Run-time (Q4)98.4%Operational stabilization
Zeolite Capacity (Preston)>12 tons/hrUp from ~4 tons/hr
Mexico (Madero) Furnaces Refurbished7~$0.5M cost; 15 hires
Antimony Suppliers3Diversified sourcing

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Consolidated RevenueFY 2025None“Currently estimated” (no range disclosed) Initiated directional commentary
Margins/OpEx/TaxFY 2025NoneNot providedMaintained non-guidance
Segment-specificFY 2025NoneNot providedMaintained non-guidance
DividendsFY 2025NoneNot providedMaintained non-guidance

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Prior-2)Q3 2024 (Prior-1)Q4 2024 (Current)Trend
Mexico operationsClosure and discontinued ops; selling remaining inventory Planning restart due to price/demand; sourcing international ore Restart executing; first Australian ore at port; 7 furnaces refurbished; hiring Reopening and ramping
Antimony supply/pricingSeeking flotation capability; supply tight; margins dependent on Rotterdam-linked contracts Supplier shutdown impacted Q3; tolling raised volume but lowered ASP; focus on new sources Three suppliers; Alaska internal ore in summer to improve margins Diversifying; vertical integration
Zeolite operationsRun-time improved; inventory build; sales initiatives (CattleMax) More repairs causing segment loss; preparing SK1300 report Q4 run-time 98.4%; capacity tripled; lease extended Stabilized and scaling
Government (DoD)Lobbying, educating agencies on zeolite use cases Site visits; concept papers; ATM registration optionality DoD grants in quiet period; cautious optimism; tariff exemption pursuit Advancing but timing unclear
Tariffs/macron/aChina mineral restrictions tightening; sourcing challenges Monitoring tariffs; seeking critical mineral exemptions Managed risk; advocacy
Alaska/Canada miningTargeting non-federal lands; high-grade focus; cobalt opportunity (Ontario) Multiple Alaska targets; trucking economics; Sudbury infrastructure Permitting on state lands; trenching/stripping; trucking to Montana by Aug. Execution phase
Investor relations/indexLaunching IR outreach, conferences, social media Media coverage; conferences; building awareness Anticipated Russell 2000 addition; broader institutional outreach Expanding visibility

Management Commentary

  • CEO framing: “This past year was a significant turning point for USAC… record revenues… gross profit up 204% YoY.”
  • Vertical integration plan: “With our ability to move our own product from Alaska in August… our margins will substantially improve.”
  • Mexico ramp: “Our first shipment of Australian antimony arrived at the port today… refurbished seven furnaces… hired 15… ready to process within a week to 10 days.”
  • Zeolite turnaround: “We went from under a 50% availability run time… to 98.4% run time in the fourth quarter… capacity from ~4 tons/hour to over 12 tons/hour.”
  • Capital markets: “It appears that U.S. Antimony is going to be added to the Russell 2000 Index in May.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Capacity expansion limits at Thompson Falls amid footprint constraints; incremental furnaces added; contract increased Canadian input +25% as of Feb 1.
  • Stibnite (Idaho) interaction: USAC aims to handle potential concentrate metallurgically when available; many parties are years away from material.
  • Alaska trucking economics: $5,200/truckload ($260/ton) concept cited; plan for summer excavation with local contractors under USAC direction.
  • Madero ramp details and inventory assurance before further expansion; additional Mexico supplier targeting ~100 tons/month.
  • Profitability timing caution; continued investment and warrant cash inflows bolstering cash balance.

Estimates Context

  • Revenue: Q4 2024 actual $6.872M* vs S&P Global consensus $4.473M* (beat). [Values retrieved from S&P Global]*
  • EPS: Q4 2024 actual -$0.0099* vs -$0.010* consensus (in line). [Values retrieved from S&P Global]*
  • Coverage: Consensus comprised of one estimate for both EPS and revenue in Q4 2024; target price consensus reflected at $9.67*, indicating nascent coverage and potential for estimate volatility. [Values retrieved from S&P Global]*

Where estimates may need to adjust:

  • Revenue trajectories likely to be revised higher near-term given the Mexico restart and sequential Q4 acceleration; margin forecasts should reflect early-stage ramp costs and mix effects until internal Alaska ore contributes in 2H 2025.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Sequential momentum: Q4 revenue inflected to $6.87M*, beating consensus by ~$2.4M*, signaling demand strength and early benefits from sourcing initiatives. [Values retrieved from S&P Global]*
  • Margin pathway: Near-term margins constrained by ramp and mix (EBITDA -$0.49M* in Q4), but vertical integration (Alaska ore) and Mexico scale are designed to lift margins starting 2H 2025. [Values retrieved from S&P Global]*
  • Zeolite is fixed and ready: Operational reliability and throughput gains set the stage for profitable growth as sales initiatives broaden into water, nuclear, and agriculture end markets.
  • Balance sheet resilience: YE cash $18.17M and minimal debt ($0.33M) provide flexibility to fund ramp, permitting, and selective capex without near-term external financing.
  • Policy optionality: DoD grants and potential tariff exemptions could accelerate expansion and de-risk supply, but timing/quantum remain uncertain; monitor filings and 8-Ks.
  • Coverage expansion: Building IR presence and index inclusion expectations (Russell 2000) could improve liquidity and institutional sponsorship, supporting valuation range-setting.
  • Execution focus: Watch for updates on Madero throughput, Alaska ore trucking start, Thompson Falls furnace additions, and segment profitability progression.

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*