Executive Summary

Q4 2024 delivered a larger quarterly GAAP net loss of $8.44M (-$0.50 EPS) versus Q3’s $6.48M and Q4 2023’s $4.34M, driven in part by a $2.71M impairment charge; cash and marketable securities ended the quarter at $23.2M and management now guides cash runway into Q4 2025 .
The near-term catalyst is the Phase 2b ASPIRE 24‑week topline in DME, expected in Q1 2025 (36‑week data Q2 2025); management reiterated conviction in UBX1325’s differentiated, durable profile vs anti‑VEGF standard of care .
Operating discipline continued: for FY 2024, R&D fell to $13.0M (from $20.1M) and G&A to $15.5M (from $19.0M), reflecting headcount reductions, program wind-downs (BEHOLD/ENVISION), and facilities savings; 2024 cash used in operations fell to $20.9M from $37.1M in 2023 .
Sequential liquidity declined ($34.0M in Q2 → $29.0M in Q3 → $23.2M in Q4), but runway extended by one quarter (from “into Q3 2025” to “into Q4 2025”), implying lower burn and/or expense efficiencies as the ASPIRE readouts approach .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

Clear clinical milestone visibility: “We expect to receive 24‑week topline data from our Phase 2b ASPIRE study in DME in this quarter,” positioning a decisive catalyst in Q1 2025 and 36‑week data in Q2 2025 .
Operating discipline: FY 2024 R&D fell by $7.1M to $13.0M YoY (personnel, program completion, and facilities savings), and G&A fell by $3.5M to $15.5M; cash used in operations fell to $20.9M from $37.1M in 2023 .
Regulatory clarity from prior quarter supports potential pivotal plan: FDA Type C feedback suggests a non‑inferiority pivotal vs an anti‑VEGF (e.g., aflibercept) on BCVA with a 4‑letter margin, framing the registrational path if ASPIRE data are supportive .

Loss widened: Q4 net loss increased to $8.44M (-$0.50 EPS) vs $6.48M (-$0.38) in Q3 and $4.34M (-$0.28) in Q4 2023, with a $2.71M impairment recorded in Q4 .
Liquidity pressure continues sequentially: cash and marketable securities stepped down to $23.2M at 12/31/24 from $29.0M (9/30/24) and $34.0M (6/30/24), though runway guidance was extended .
R&D ticked up sequentially in Q4 (to $3.04M from $2.79M in Q3) due to ongoing ASPIRE study costs despite lower personnel expenses, highlighting continued trial‑related spend into readouts .

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Loss from operations	-$6.979	-$6.602	-$9.991
Net loss	-$5.279	-$6.481	-$8.440
Net loss per share (GAAP)	-$0.31	-$0.38	-$0.50
R&D expense	$3.463	$2.787	$3.035
G&A expense	$3.516	$3.815	$4.251
Impairment of long‑lived assets	$0.000	$0.000	$2.705
Interest income	$0.515	$0.396	$0.309
Gain (loss) on warrant liability	$1.246	-$0.215	$1.306

Notes: UBX presents no revenue line in its Statements of Operations; results reflect operating expenses and losses as a clinical‑stage company .

Metric	Q2 2024 (as of 6/30/24)	Q3 2024 (as of 9/30/24)	Q4 2024 (as of 12/31/24)
Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities	$34.0	$29.0	$23.2
Cash used in operations (period context)	$9.8 YTD (Q1–Q2)	$15.0 YTD (Q1–Q3)	$5.9 in Q4; $20.9 FY 2024

S&P Global consensus EPS and revenue estimates for Q4 2024 were unavailable for UBX; as a result, a vs‑consensus comparison is not presented.

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Cash runway	Operating runway	Sufficient into Q3 2025	Sufficient into Q4 2025	Extended
ASPIRE 24‑week topline	Q1 2025	Expected Q1 2025	Anticipated Q1 2025	Maintained
ASPIRE 36‑week topline	Q2 2025	Expected Q2 2025	Anticipated Q2 2025	Maintained
Pivotal study expectations (if positive)	Design parameters	Non‑inferiority vs aflibercept on BCVA (ETDRS), 4‑letter margin	No incremental change disclosed	Maintained

Note: UBX’s 8‑K furnished a press release and did not include a call transcript; no transcript was found in filings for Q4 2024 .

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
R&D execution (ASPIRE progress)	Exceeded enrollment goal; extended study to 50 patients and 36 weeks	24‑week topline expected Q1 2025; 36‑week in Q2 2025	On track toward readouts
Regulatory path	FDA Type C meeting indicated non‑inferiority pivotal vs aflibercept; BCVA, 4‑letter margin	No new regulatory updates; focus on topline timing	Stable clarity
Cost discipline / runway	Cash+securities: $34.0M (Q2); $29.0M (Q3); runway into Q3 2025	$23.2M at Q4; runway extended to Q4 2025	Liquidity down; runway extended
Product positioning	Novel senolytic mechanism; potential durability vs anti‑VEGF	Reinforced differentiation and potential advantages vs anti‑VEGF	Consistent messaging

“We expect to receive 24‑week topline data from our Phase 2b ASPIRE study in diabetic macular edema (DME) in this quarter… With its novel mechanism of action and durable therapeutic profile, UBX1325 could offer meaningful advantages over existing anti‑VEGF treatments.” – Anirvan Ghosh, Ph.D., CEO .
FY expense reductions reflect deliberate focus: R&D down $7.1M YoY and G&A down $3.5M YoY, citing reduced headcount, completion of BEHOLD/ENVISION, and facilities savings .

No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript was furnished with the 8‑K (exhibit was the press release only), and no transcript was found in filings; therefore, Q&A themes are not available to summarize .

We were unable to retrieve S&P Global consensus EPS and revenue estimates for UBX’s Q4 2024; accordingly, no vs‑consensus comparison is presented for this quarter.

The stock’s near‑term narrative is binary around ASPIRE topline: 24‑week data in Q1 2025 and 36‑week data in Q2 2025 are the primary catalysts; management emphasizes potential differentiation vs anti‑VEGF standard of care .
Sequential losses widened largely due to a Q4 impairment ($2.71M) and higher G&A, while R&D rose modestly as ASPIRE continued; monitor expense cadence post‑readouts .
Liquidity stepped down to $23.2M at year‑end, but runway was extended into Q4 2025, reflecting operating discipline as the company nears data disclosures .
Regulatory pathway remains defined from Q3’s FDA interaction (BCVA non‑inferiority vs aflibercept), which could accelerate planning if ASPIRE data are supportive .
No revenue and GAAP losses will likely persist pending successful clinical outcomes and a path to registration; watch for any incremental financing disclosures relative to the runway .
Year‑over‑year operating cost reductions (R&D and G&A) and lower cash burn versus 2023 improve operational flexibility into data catalysts .

Supporting detail and additional disclosures

Fourth quarter and full‑year 2024 financial results, cash balance, runway, and operating expense detail: .
Third quarter 2024 trends and FDA feedback: .
Second quarter 2024 trends and trial enrollment update: .