UE
Urban Edge Properties (UE)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 delivered record quarterly earnings for UE by management’s account, with FFO as Adjusted of $0.35 per diluted share (+6% YoY) and same-property NOI growth of 3.8% driven by rent commencements from the signed-not-open pipeline, higher net recovery revenue, and 2024 acquisitions .
- Net income per diluted share was $0.07 vs $0.02 in Q1 2024; total revenue was $118.17M vs $109.63M in Q1 2024; leasing momentum remained strong (42 deals; shop occupancy a new record 92.4%) .
- Guidance: Net income per diluted share raised to $0.40–$0.45; FFO and FFO as Adjusted reiterated at $1.36–$1.41 and $1.37–$1.42; management noted they would have raised guidance by ~$0.02 if not for April macro/tariff volatility .
- Capital recycling continues: $25M land sale closed and ~$41.2M under contract (weighted avg ~5% cap), with proceeds targeted to 1031 exchanges; dividend maintained at $0.19 per share (declared May 7, 2025) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record quarterly FFO as Adjusted and accelerating rent growth: “FFO as adjusted of $0.35 per share… the highest quarterly earnings result in UE’s 10-year history… Rent growth is accelerating…” .
- Leasing execution and occupancy quality: 42 leases (434k sf) with strong spreads (new leases same-space cash +34.3%); shop occupancy rose to 92.4%, up 400 bps YoY .
- Redevelopment pipeline and capital recycling: $156.4M active projects at ~14% expected yield; $66M of assets sold/under contract at ~5% cap, improving portfolio mix .
What Went Wrong
- Occupancy ticked down vs Q4 due to anchor recaptures tied to bankruptcies; same-property leased occupancy fell 50 bps QoQ (96.6%) .
- Macro uncertainty post-tariff announcements led management to hold back a potential ~$0.02 guidance raise despite a stronger start to the year .
- Investment sales market showing early signs of slowing; bid-ask spreads remain wide and CMBS issuance limited since April, tempering external growth pacing .
Financial Results
Core metrics vs prior year and prior quarter
Quarterly trend view (prior two quarters plus current)
KPIs
Estimates vs actuals (S&P Global consensus)
Values retrieved from S&P Global. FFO/FFO as Adjusted consensus was unavailable; Street tends to focus on FFO for REITs, but only EPS consensus was present [Values retrieved from S&P Global].
Guidance Changes
Management commentary: “We would have likely increased our guidance by $0.02 a share, if not for the economic volatility in April.”
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “FFO as adjusted of $0.35 per share, a 6% increase over the first quarter of last year and the highest quarterly earnings result in UE's 10-year history.” – Jeff Olson, CEO .
- “We would have likely increased our guidance by $0.02 a share, if not for the economic volatility in April.” – Jeff Olson, CEO .
- “Since the tariffs were announced in early April, we have not seen any changes in retailer demand at our properties… investment sales market is showing early signs of slowing down.” – Jeff Olson, CEO .
- “Our same-property NOI… increased 3.8%… due in part to higher net recoveries, CAM reconciliation billings and collections from tenants in bankruptcy…” – Mark Langer, CFO .
- “We are actively recycling capital by selling some of our noncore lower cap assets and redeploying that capital into accretive acquisitions.” – Jeff Olson, CEO .
Q&A Highlights
- Tariffs/macro impact: Management sees no slowdown in retailer demand to date; brokers report robust leasing pipelines; cautious stance maintained due to April volatility .
- Dispositions vs acquisitions spread: Recent dispos at
5% cap; acquisitions in low-7% range over past 18 months ($550M buys vs ~$450M sells) – attractive spread; many transactions structured as 1031 exchanges . - Dividend and 1031: 1031 exchanges defer gains and do not add pressure to dividend payout; tax basis mechanics confirmed .
- Market pricing and bid-ask: Bid-ask remains wide post-tariffs; UE is patient and underwriting deals amid changing rates/lending spreads .
- Bad debt and tenant risk: Bad debt guidance reiterated at 75–100 bps; Q1 ran ~10 bps below; Kohl’s seen as low bankruptcy risk, with strong store productivity and low rents .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 EPS missed consensus: $0.07 actual vs $0.16 consensus; REITs are typically assessed on FFO, where UE delivered $0.35 and +6% YoY growth; Street FFO consensus was unavailable, implying estimates may need to recalibrate focus to NOI/FFO drivers (SNO commencements, recovery rates) [Values retrieved from S&P Global] .
- Revenue: Actual $118.17M; revenue consensus for Q1 was not available in S&P Global for comparison; prior quarters show sequential revenue growth consistent with lease commencements [Values retrieved from S&P Global] .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Execution remains strong: Record FFO as Adjusted and robust leasing (shop occupancy record; 34% cash spreads on new leases) reinforce organic growth trajectory into 2H 2025 .
- Guidance conservatism is macro-driven, not operational: Management explicitly held back a ~$0.02 raise due to April volatility; watch for potential upward revision next quarter if macro stabilizes .
- Capital recycling at favorable spreads continues: Dispositions at ~5% cap and targeted accretive 1031 acquisitions should enhance portfolio quality and growth .
- Redevelopment pipeline (~$156M at ~14% yield) supports medium-term NOI visibility, especially as SNO ($25.1M) commences with $4.4M expected in remainder of 2025 .
- Balance sheet/liquidity (~$791M) and limited near-term maturities (8% through 2026) reduce financing risk amid wider spreads and limited CMBS issuance .
- Near-term stock catalysts: Signs of tariff-related slowdown (none to date) vs investment sales market softening; potential guidance raise; incremental SNO commencements; further redevelopments stabilizing .
- Risk monitor: Bankruptcy-driven anchor recaptures temporarily pressure occupancy, but replacements are negotiating at better terms; watch macro, lending spreads, and investment sales velocity .