Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
- Ulta Beauty plans to open between 60 and 65 net new stores in fiscal 2024, bringing the two-year total to 90 to 95 new stores, and sees potential for additional growth through its small format store prototype.
- Ulta Beauty is executing strategies to drive growth in the prestige cosmetics category, including launching sought-after brands like Charlotte Tilbury in 600 stores and online, aiming to regain market share in this segment.
- Ulta Beauty is expanding internationally into Mexico in partnership with Axo, with plans to be operational in 2025, opening new growth opportunities beyond the U.S. market.
- Operating margin is expected to decline to between 14% and 14.3% of sales in fiscal 2024, down from 15% in fiscal 2023, primarily due to SG&A deleverage, ongoing wage pressures, and supply chain cost deleverage.
- Gross margin is anticipated to decrease modestly in fiscal 2024 because of lower merchandise margin and deleveraging of supply chain costs, partially offset by growth in other revenue.
- The company faced challenges in the prestige cosmetics category in 2023, especially in the second half, with more growth on the mass side and challenges on the prestige side, potentially indicating a shift in consumer preferences that could impact margins.
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Margin Outlook and New Product Contribution
Q: What's driving the margin outlook to 14%-14.3%, and how will new products contribute this year?
A: Ulta expects operating margins between 14% and 14.3% of sales, mainly due to SG&A deleverage from investments in growth enablers and wage pressures [5]. Merchandise margins will decrease modestly because of lower margin rates and supply chain costs, partially offset by growth in other revenue [5]. New product launches like Charlotte Tilbury in 600 stores and Sol de Janeiro in 700 stores are expected to contribute significantly, maintaining historical newness contribution levels of 20%-30% of sales [5]. -
Store Expansion Plans
Q: How will the increased store expansion this year impact market share?
A: Ulta plans to open 60 to 65 net new stores in fiscal 2024, including 10 small format stores, aligning with previous growth targets [3]. This expansion aims to win back market share from competitors [3]. -
International Expansion into Mexico
Q: Why is Ulta entering Mexico instead of Canada, and what's the long-term opportunity?
A: Ulta chose Mexico after careful evaluation due to strong performance in border stores and a promising partnership with Axo [1]. They plan to begin operations in 2025, with associated costs included in 2024 guidance [1]. -
Investment Plans and Impact on Expenses
Q: What are the 2024 investment plans compared to previous years?
A: Incremental investments will be limited in 2024 as foundational projects like Project SOAR and Digital Store wrap up [6]. Ulta invested $62 million in 2023 and $55 million in 2022 on transformational strategic investments [6]. -
Promotional Environment and Sales Outlook
Q: How will the promotional environment affect 2024 guidance and sales mix?
A: Ulta doesn't expect a significant increase in promotional intensity, planning for a competitive yet rational environment [8]. The company anticipates a normalized pricing environment and will manage shifts between mass and prestige products [8]. -
Balance Between Prestige and Mass Products
Q: How is the balance of prestige and mass products shaping future growth and margins?
A: Ulta sees strong engagement across both prestige and mass categories and is well-positioned to adapt to consumer shifts [2]. Merchandise margins remain higher than in 2019 due to a healthier business mix [2]. -
Luxury Brands Performance and Expansion
Q: How did luxury brands perform, and will there be more rollouts in 2024?
A: Luxury brands like Chanel, Dior, Natasha Denona, and Pat McGrath performed well, meeting guest needs [7]. Ulta will continue to grow existing luxury partnerships but hasn't shared specifics on new launches [7]. -
UB Media Growth Potential
Q: What's the update on UB Media's platform and scaling potential?
A: Ulta is pleased with UB Media's progress, leveraging first-party data to enhance partnerships with brands [4]. Although specific numbers aren't disclosed, the company expects continued growth in this area [4]. -
Share Gains in Prestige Cosmetics
Q: Will Ulta return to share gains in the prestige cosmetics category?
A: Ulta is focused on driving growth in all makeup segments, including prestige, through new brands like Charlotte Tilbury, exclusive offerings, and innovation from existing big brands [0]. They are confident in delivering expected growth over time [0].