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Uniti Group Inc. (UNIT)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Solid quarter with revenue of $293.9M, Adjusted EBITDA of $237.8M (~81% margin), GAAP diluted EPS $0.05, and AFFO per diluted share $0.35; core recurring strategic fiber revenue grew ~4% YoY and consolidated bookings rose 40% YoY .
- Versus S&P Global consensus, revenue was a slight miss (~$293.9M vs $295.4M*) and EPS missed ($0.05 vs ~$0.09*); management noted a $4M non-recurring fiber sale shifted out of Q1, impacting non-recurring revenue timing .
- 2025 outlook updated: revenue and Adjusted EBITDA ranges maintained ($1,196–$1,216M and $966–$986M), AFFO maintained ($369–$389M), but net income lowered ($90–$110M) and interest expense raised ($535M) reflecting debt actions and costs to date .
- Strategic catalysts: merger progress (97% shareholder approval; 16/18 PUC approvals; potential close as early as July/August), resilient ABS funding and improved cost of capital, and strengthening hyperscaler and wireless demand with lease-up momentum .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Core recurring strategic fiber revenue +~4% YoY; bookings +40% YoY; consolidated Adjusted EBITDA margin ~81% .
- Segment execution: Leasing revenue $222.4M and Adjusted EBITDA $215.1M; Fiber revenue $71.5M and Adjusted EBITDA $28.8M (40% margin) .
- Strategic/financial positioning: shareholder approval for Windstream merger (97% yes), PUC approvals in 16 of 18 jurisdictions; ABS market remains resilient and blended debt yields improved by ~500 bps over two years; minimal tariff exposure (<1% of combined capex) .
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What Went Wrong
- EPS and revenue modestly missed S&P Global consensus due in part to timing: a $4M one-time government fiber sale slipped from Q1 to later in Q2, reducing non-recurring revenue in the quarter .
- Net income guidance reduced for 2025 and interest expense nudged higher after partial redemption of 10.50% 2028 notes and transaction-related costs, tightening flexibility on GAAP metrics despite unchanged EBITDA/AFFO .
- Capital intensity optics: Leasing net success-based capex $169.9M in Q1 included $175M of GCI outlays (front-loaded), compressing capex timing; Fiber net success-based capex $17.7M, with some NRC timing variability .
Financial Results
- Estimate comparison (Q1 2025):
- Revenue: Actual $293.909M vs Consensus ~$295.386M*; Surprise -$1.48M (-0.5%). Actual: ; Consensus*: GetEstimates.
- EPS: Actual $0.05 vs Consensus ~$0.09*; Surprise -$0.04 (-46.8%). Actual: ; Consensus*: GetEstimates.
- Management cited a $4M one-time sale deferral as the primary revenue timing factor .
- Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Segment Breakdown
KPIs and Balance Sheet
Guidance Changes
Management attributed updates to business unit-level revisions, partial redemption of 10.50% 2028 notes, and transaction-related/other costs to date .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our core recurring strategic fiber revenue grew approximately 4%... consolidated bookings were up 40%... capital intensity of our fiber business continues to decline... well positioned to benefit from... Generative AI and convergence” — Kenny Gunderman, CEO .
- “Leasing revenues of $222M and Adjusted EBITDA of $215M... Fiber revenues of $72M and Adjusted EBITDA of $29M... non-recurring revenue lower than expected due to a $4M one-time sale delay” — Paul Bullington, CFO .
- “We received shareholder approval... approximately 97%... PUC approvals from 16 of 18... on track to close... as early as July or August” — CEO .
- “Tariff changes [anticipated to have] little to no effect... no more than 1% of our total combined CapEx” — CEO .
- “Debt currently yielding around 7.5% on a blended basis, a 500 bps improvement in 2 years... ABS remains attractive; $1B+ near-term ABS capacity potential” — CFO .
Q&A Highlights
- M&A pipeline remains active; focus remains on integration and insurgent fiber strategy, but Uniti stays engaged with strategic and financial parties .
- Hyperscaler dynamics: 15–20% of bookings; many deals treated as anchors with lease-up; blended yields on hyperscaler builds nearing ~20% as lease-up progresses .
- ABS vs other debt: flexible mix guided by market cost; ABS complements unsecured markets as they reopen .
- Kinetic build plan: ~325k homes in 2025; ~2.0M homes passed by YE25 (two years ahead of original plan), targeting 3.0–3.5M by 2029; initial FTTH penetrations 25–30% on later cohorts .
- Guidance clarity: GCI funding for 2025 fully recognized in Q1 due to mechanics/timing; no further GCI payments expected for the year .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: revenue $293.909M vs ~$295.386M* (miss ~0.5%); EPS $0.05 vs ~$0.09* (miss) .
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of estimates: EPS (6), revenue (5)*.
- Directionally, Street may trim GAAP net income and interest expense assumptions given updated guidance, while maintaining revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and AFFO ranges .
Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Execution steady with stable revenue and EBITDA QoQ; AFFO per share held at $0.35, supported by lease-up and disciplined capital intensity management .
- The EPS/revenue miss was modest and primarily timing-driven (slipped $4M one-time sale); underlying recurring fiber growth and bookings remained robust .
- Guidance quality: EBITDA/AFFO intact; GAAP net income lowered and interest expense raised post-debt actions — focus remains on cash metrics and leverage path .
- Merger milestones de-risking the close (97% shareholder approval; 16/18 PUCs cleared); potential July/Aug close is a key stock catalyst .
- Funding optionality: ABS platform provides lower-cost, investment-grade financing; management sees >$1B near-term ABS capacity post-close — a lever for FTTH acceleration and deleveraging .
- AI/hyperscaler tailwinds real and broadening; hyperscaler lease-up rising with higher strand counts, while wireless bookings re-accelerate — supports mid-single-digit top-line with expanding economics over time .
- Watch items: completion of remaining regulatory approvals, execution on FTTH build/penetrations, and continued cost-of-capital improvements to support the medium-term deleveraging case .
Additional Context (Q1 2025 Press Releases)
- Stockholders approved the proposed merger with Windstream (over 90% of shares present voted in favor) .
- Uniti appointed John Harrobin President of Kinetic, bringing FTTH transformation experience from Frontier .
- Conference participation updates (JPM TMT, MoffettNathanson; later Nareit REITweek), indicating ongoing investor outreach .
Notes on non-GAAP: Management provides reconciliations; Q1 included $7.8M transaction-related costs, $8.5M loss on extinguishment of debt, and adjusts for non-cash items in AFFO/EBITDA reconciliations .
S&P Global estimate values were used for consensus comparisons (marked with *).