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Uniti Group Inc. (UNIT)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Solid quarter with revenue of $293.9M, Adjusted EBITDA of $237.8M (~81% margin), GAAP diluted EPS $0.05, and AFFO per diluted share $0.35; core recurring strategic fiber revenue grew ~4% YoY and consolidated bookings rose 40% YoY .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, revenue was a slight miss (~$293.9M vs $295.4M*) and EPS missed ($0.05 vs ~$0.09*); management noted a $4M non-recurring fiber sale shifted out of Q1, impacting non-recurring revenue timing .
  • 2025 outlook updated: revenue and Adjusted EBITDA ranges maintained ($1,196–$1,216M and $966–$986M), AFFO maintained ($369–$389M), but net income lowered ($90–$110M) and interest expense raised ($535M) reflecting debt actions and costs to date .
  • Strategic catalysts: merger progress (97% shareholder approval; 16/18 PUC approvals; potential close as early as July/August), resilient ABS funding and improved cost of capital, and strengthening hyperscaler and wireless demand with lease-up momentum .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Core recurring strategic fiber revenue +~4% YoY; bookings +40% YoY; consolidated Adjusted EBITDA margin ~81% .
    • Segment execution: Leasing revenue $222.4M and Adjusted EBITDA $215.1M; Fiber revenue $71.5M and Adjusted EBITDA $28.8M (40% margin) .
    • Strategic/financial positioning: shareholder approval for Windstream merger (97% yes), PUC approvals in 16 of 18 jurisdictions; ABS market remains resilient and blended debt yields improved by ~500 bps over two years; minimal tariff exposure (<1% of combined capex) .
  • What Went Wrong

    • EPS and revenue modestly missed S&P Global consensus due in part to timing: a $4M one-time government fiber sale slipped from Q1 to later in Q2, reducing non-recurring revenue in the quarter .
    • Net income guidance reduced for 2025 and interest expense nudged higher after partial redemption of 10.50% 2028 notes and transaction-related costs, tightening flexibility on GAAP metrics despite unchanged EBITDA/AFFO .
    • Capital intensity optics: Leasing net success-based capex $169.9M in Q1 included $175M of GCI outlays (front-loaded), compressing capex timing; Fiber net success-based capex $17.7M, with some NRC timing variability .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($M)$292.247 $293.315 $293.909
Net Income ($M)$12.230 $21.573 $12.220
Diluted EPS ($)$0.05 $0.09 $0.05
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$235.324 $239.455 $237.830
AFFO per diluted share ($)$0.33 $0.35 $0.35
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %~81% ~82% ~81%
  • Estimate comparison (Q1 2025):
    • Revenue: Actual $293.909M vs Consensus ~$295.386M*; Surprise -$1.48M (-0.5%). Actual: ; Consensus*: GetEstimates.
    • EPS: Actual $0.05 vs Consensus ~$0.09*; Surprise -$0.04 (-46.8%). Actual: ; Consensus*: GetEstimates.
    • Management cited a $4M one-time sale deferral as the primary revenue timing factor .
    • Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Breakdown

SegmentQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Uniti Leasing Revenue ($M)222.922 221.661 222.4
Uniti Leasing Adjusted EBITDA ($M)215.188 214.460 215.126
Uniti Fiber Revenue ($M)69.325 71.654 71.5
Uniti Fiber Adjusted EBITDA ($M)25.557 31.071 28.756

KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPIQ1 2025
Core recurring strategic fiber revenue YoY~+4%
Consolidated bookings YoY+40%
Wireless bookings~2x vs Q1’24
Uniti Leasing net success-based capex ($M)$169.9 (incl. $175.0 GCI)
Uniti Fiber net success-based capex ($M)$17.7
Combined liquidity (cash + undrawn revolver)~$592M
Cash and equivalents ($M)$91.956
Total Debt ($M)$5,477.946
Net Debt / Annualized Adjusted EBITDA6.09x

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (2/21/25)Current Guidance (5/6/25)Change
Revenue ($M)FY 2025$1,196 – $1,216 $1,196 – $1,216 Maintained
Net income attributable to common ($M)FY 2025$95 – $115 $90 – $110 Lowered
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)FY 2025$966 – $986 $966 – $986 Maintained
Interest expense, net ($M)FY 2025$532 $535 Raised
FFO ($M)FY 2025$322 – $342 $315 – $335 Lowered
AFFO ($M)FY 2025$369 – $389 $369 – $389 Maintained
Weighted avg diluted shares (M)FY 2025280 280 Maintained

Management attributed updates to business unit-level revisions, partial redemption of 10.50% 2028 notes, and transaction-related/other costs to date .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024)Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
AI/hyperscalersDemand strong; long-term award (Montgomery, AL) ~20% of bookings; anchor-first approach; blended yields near 20%; inference to dominate by 2030 Hyperscaler activity strong; lease-up a large portion; 15–20% of bookings; doubling down on high strand-count routes Strengthening
Wireless demand2024 flat; expecting pickup in 2025 Q1 wireless bookings ~2x YoY Improving
Capital structure/ABSClosed $589M ABS; coupon <6.5%; redeemed part of 10.5% notes; leverage 5.8x ABS resilient; blended debt yield ~7.5%; >$1B potential ABS capacity; leverage 6.09x Ongoing optimization
Regulatory backdropFCC/NTIA shifts: copper retirement leniency; subsidy/permitting favorable; minimal tariff impact (<1% capex) Tailwind
Merger progressOn track for 2H25 close 16/18 PUC approvals; shareholder vote set; close as early as July 97% shareholder approval; 16/18 PUC approvals; potential July/Aug close Advancing
Kinetic FTTH build~325k homes in 2025; ~2.0M homes by YE25; 3.0–3.5M by 2029 Reiterated acceleration; appointed President of Kinetic (Harrobin) Accelerating

Management Commentary

  • “Our core recurring strategic fiber revenue grew approximately 4%... consolidated bookings were up 40%... capital intensity of our fiber business continues to decline... well positioned to benefit from... Generative AI and convergence” — Kenny Gunderman, CEO .
  • “Leasing revenues of $222M and Adjusted EBITDA of $215M... Fiber revenues of $72M and Adjusted EBITDA of $29M... non-recurring revenue lower than expected due to a $4M one-time sale delay” — Paul Bullington, CFO .
  • “We received shareholder approval... approximately 97%... PUC approvals from 16 of 18... on track to close... as early as July or August” — CEO .
  • “Tariff changes [anticipated to have] little to no effect... no more than 1% of our total combined CapEx” — CEO .
  • “Debt currently yielding around 7.5% on a blended basis, a 500 bps improvement in 2 years... ABS remains attractive; $1B+ near-term ABS capacity potential” — CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • M&A pipeline remains active; focus remains on integration and insurgent fiber strategy, but Uniti stays engaged with strategic and financial parties .
  • Hyperscaler dynamics: 15–20% of bookings; many deals treated as anchors with lease-up; blended yields on hyperscaler builds nearing ~20% as lease-up progresses .
  • ABS vs other debt: flexible mix guided by market cost; ABS complements unsecured markets as they reopen .
  • Kinetic build plan: ~325k homes in 2025; ~2.0M homes passed by YE25 (two years ahead of original plan), targeting 3.0–3.5M by 2029; initial FTTH penetrations 25–30% on later cohorts .
  • Guidance clarity: GCI funding for 2025 fully recognized in Q1 due to mechanics/timing; no further GCI payments expected for the year .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: revenue $293.909M vs ~$295.386M* (miss ~0.5%); EPS $0.05 vs ~$0.09* (miss) .
  • of estimates: EPS (6), revenue (5)*.

  • Directionally, Street may trim GAAP net income and interest expense assumptions given updated guidance, while maintaining revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and AFFO ranges .

Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Execution steady with stable revenue and EBITDA QoQ; AFFO per share held at $0.35, supported by lease-up and disciplined capital intensity management .
  • The EPS/revenue miss was modest and primarily timing-driven (slipped $4M one-time sale); underlying recurring fiber growth and bookings remained robust .
  • Guidance quality: EBITDA/AFFO intact; GAAP net income lowered and interest expense raised post-debt actions — focus remains on cash metrics and leverage path .
  • Merger milestones de-risking the close (97% shareholder approval; 16/18 PUCs cleared); potential July/Aug close is a key stock catalyst .
  • Funding optionality: ABS platform provides lower-cost, investment-grade financing; management sees >$1B near-term ABS capacity post-close — a lever for FTTH acceleration and deleveraging .
  • AI/hyperscaler tailwinds real and broadening; hyperscaler lease-up rising with higher strand counts, while wireless bookings re-accelerate — supports mid-single-digit top-line with expanding economics over time .
  • Watch items: completion of remaining regulatory approvals, execution on FTTH build/penetrations, and continued cost-of-capital improvements to support the medium-term deleveraging case .

Additional Context (Q1 2025 Press Releases)

  • Stockholders approved the proposed merger with Windstream (over 90% of shares present voted in favor) .
  • Uniti appointed John Harrobin President of Kinetic, bringing FTTH transformation experience from Frontier .
  • Conference participation updates (JPM TMT, MoffettNathanson; later Nareit REITweek), indicating ongoing investor outreach .

Notes on non-GAAP: Management provides reconciliations; Q1 included $7.8M transaction-related costs, $8.5M loss on extinguishment of debt, and adjusts for non-cash items in AFFO/EBITDA reconciliations .

S&P Global estimate values were used for consensus comparisons (marked with *).