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Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue of $0.61M beat S&P Global consensus of $0.38M by ~59% on collaboration revenue; net loss was $21.2M as R&D and G&A scaled with advancing clinical programs . Revenue consensus from S&P Global*.
  • Balance sheet strengthened post-IPO: cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments totaled $470.5M at 12/31/24, with runway guided through 2027 .
  • Clinical execution improved visibility: CRSwNP Phase 2 enrollment completed in January 2025 with topline expected in H2 2025; severe asthma topline in H2 2026; COPD Phase 2 first patient in H2 2025 .
  • Stock catalysts: H2 2025 CRSwNP topline and COPD first patient dosing; cash runway reduces financing overhang post-IPO, which raised ~$293M gross proceeds in Oct-2024 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • CRSwNP Phase 2 enrollment completed ahead of topline in H2 2025; management emphasized momentum and preparation for Phase 3, pending regulatory dialogue .
  • Q4 collaboration revenue of $0.61M exceeded S&P consensus of $0.38M; interest income of $5.08M partially offset operating loss . Revenue consensus from S&P Global*.
  • Funding visibility: $470.5M in cash and investments at year-end supports operations through 2027; IPO execution delivered ~$293M gross proceeds .

What Went Wrong

  • Operating scale-up widened losses: Q4 R&D $21.8M (vs $11.6M LY) and G&A $5.2M (vs $3.2M LY) drove a Q4 net loss of $21.2M (vs $11.8M LY) .
  • QoQ expense growth as programs advanced: Q4 R&D $21.8M vs $15.4M in Q3 and G&A $5.2M vs $4.1M in Q3, increasing the loss from operations ($26.3M in Q4 vs $18.9M in Q3) .
  • No numeric guidance on OpEx trajectories or EPS/Revenue beyond runway; investors must infer burn and cadence from quarterly spend and clinical timelines .

Financial Results

P&L (Actuals)

Metric ($USD Millions)Q4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Collaboration Revenue$0.45 $0.61 $0.61
Research & Development$11.55 $15.43 $21.77
General & Administrative$3.23 $4.07 $5.16
Total Operating Expenses$14.78 $19.50 $26.93
Loss from Operations$(14.33) $(18.89) $(26.32)
Interest Income$1.52 $2.90 $5.08
Net Loss$(11.83) $(15.99) $(21.24)

Balance Sheet Snapshot

Metric12/31/202312/31/2024
Cash & Cash Equivalents$25.83M $325.89M
Short-term Investments$83.98M $144.56M
Cash, Equivalents & ST Investments (Total)$109.81M $470.45M
Total Assets$117.20M $481.72M
Total Liabilities$9.39M $11.87M
Stockholders’ Equity (Deficit)$(123.13)M $469.85M

Q4 2024 vs S&P Global Consensus

MetricActualConsensus
Revenue$0.61M $0.38M*
EPS (Primary)N/A (not disclosed in 8-K)-$0.54*
Estimates Count4 (EPS), 4 (Revenue)*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q3 2024)Current Guidance (Q4 2024)Change
CRSwNP Phase 2 ToplineH2 2025Topline H2 2025 Topline H2 2025; enrollment completed Jan-2025 Maintained timeline; status advanced (enrollment completed)
CRSwNP Phase 3 PrepPost-toplineNot explicitly statedPreparing for Phase 3 pending regulatory interactions New detail
Severe Asthma Phase 2 ToplineH2 2026H2 2026 H2 2026 Maintained
COPD Phase 2 First PatientH2 2025H2 2025 first patient H2 2025 first patient Maintained
Cash RunwayThrough 2027Through 2027 (post-IPO) Through 2027 Maintained
IPO ProceedsOct 2024~$293M gross ~$293M gross No change

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: No earnings call transcript was available in the filings set reviewed; commentary reflects press releases.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2, Q-1)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
CRSwNP executionQ-2 (Q2’24): N/A (pre-IPO/public filings not available). Q-1 (Q3’24): CRSwNP Phase 2 ongoing; topline H2’25 Enrollment completed Jan-2025; topline H2’25; endpoints (NPS primary) aligned with prior registrational precedents Positive execution; readiness for Phase 3
Severe asthma differentiationQ-1: Phase 1b data/modeling showed high potency and extended dosing rationale; FeNO/eosinophil reductions; testing Q12W/Q24W regimens Maintained timeline H2’26 for topline; emphasis on unique TSLP receptor antagonism Stable, differentiation thesis intact
COPD programQ-1: Phase 2 startup activities; first patient H2’25 On track for H2’25 first patient Stable
Capital & runwayQ-1: IPO completed; runway through 2027 $470.5M cash/STI at YE; runway through 2027 Strengthened balance sheet
Org/leadershipQ-1: Appointed Daniella Beckman to Board (Audit Chair) Added General Counsel (Dec-2024) Building public-company infrastructure
Regulatory/designQ-1: —CRSwNP endpoints include NPS primary and symptom/surgery secondary endpoints Clarity on registrationally relevant design

Management Commentary

  • “We closed 2024 and started 2025 with strong continued momentum, marked by the successful completion of enrollment in our Phase 2 clinical trial of verekitug in patients with CRSwNP in January 2025. We expect to report top-line data from this trial in the second half of 2025, enabling regulatory discussions and preparations for a Phase 3 program in CRSwNP.” — Rand Sutherland, MD, CEO
  • “We remain on track to dose the first patient in our COPD program in the second half of 2025 and… expect to report top-line data from our ongoing Phase 2 clinical trial in severe asthma in the second half of 2026.” — Rand Sutherland, MD
  • “Our recently completed initial public offering has provided us with sufficient capital to fund our planned operations through 2027…” — Rand Sutherland, MD

Q&A Highlights

  • Not available; the company furnished Q4 2024 results via an 8-K press release, and no earnings call transcript was included in the documents reviewed .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 2024 revenue of $0.61M beat S&P Global consensus of $0.38M by ~59%; 4 estimates contributed to consensus. EPS consensus was -$0.54; the 8-K did not disclose EPS; reported net loss was $21.2M. Revenue/EPS estimates and counts from S&P Global*. Actual revenue and net loss from the 8-K .
  • Q3 2024 context: revenue of $0.61M vs $0.40M consensus; EPS actual -$6.96 vs -$3.65 consensus, reflecting pre-IPO share base dynamics and higher OpEx as programs ramped. Revenue/EPS estimates from S&P Global*; actual revenue/net loss from filings .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Clinical execution de-risks the near-term path: CRSwNP Phase 2 enrollment completion and H2 2025 topline are the primary stock catalysts, with potential Phase 3 initiation thereafter, pending regulators .
  • Differentiation thesis persists: first-in-class TSLP receptor antagonism and extended dosing intervals in asthma could be clinically meaningful if Phase 2 confirms potency seen in Phase 1b modeling .
  • Balance sheet capacity: $470.5M cash/ST investments supports multi-indication development through 2027, reducing financing overhang during key readouts .
  • Expense cadence rising with program activity; watch R&D trajectory and interest income offsets as the company advances asthma/COPD alongside CRSwNP .
  • Estimate revisions: Q4 revenue beat may lift near-term collaboration revenue run-rate assumptions; lack of EPS disclosure in the 8-K keeps per-share modeling anchored to OpEx/burn forecasts rather than GAAP EPS noise*. Actuals from filings .
  • Near-term trading setup: binary risk accumulates into H2 2025 CRSwNP topline; expect positioning to build as timelines firm and any interim conference updates emerge .
  • Medium-term thesis: multi-respiratory franchise potential (CRSwNP, severe asthma, COPD) with a unified mechanism may support platform value if efficacy/dosing advantages are confirmed across indications .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*