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Upstream Bio, Inc. (UPB)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 revenue of $0.61M beat S&P Global consensus of $0.38M by ~59% on collaboration revenue; net loss was $21.2M as R&D and G&A scaled with advancing clinical programs . Revenue consensus from S&P Global*.
- Balance sheet strengthened post-IPO: cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments totaled $470.5M at 12/31/24, with runway guided through 2027 .
- Clinical execution improved visibility: CRSwNP Phase 2 enrollment completed in January 2025 with topline expected in H2 2025; severe asthma topline in H2 2026; COPD Phase 2 first patient in H2 2025 .
- Stock catalysts: H2 2025 CRSwNP topline and COPD first patient dosing; cash runway reduces financing overhang post-IPO, which raised ~$293M gross proceeds in Oct-2024 .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- CRSwNP Phase 2 enrollment completed ahead of topline in H2 2025; management emphasized momentum and preparation for Phase 3, pending regulatory dialogue .
- Q4 collaboration revenue of $0.61M exceeded S&P consensus of $0.38M; interest income of $5.08M partially offset operating loss . Revenue consensus from S&P Global*.
- Funding visibility: $470.5M in cash and investments at year-end supports operations through 2027; IPO execution delivered ~$293M gross proceeds .
What Went Wrong
- Operating scale-up widened losses: Q4 R&D $21.8M (vs $11.6M LY) and G&A $5.2M (vs $3.2M LY) drove a Q4 net loss of $21.2M (vs $11.8M LY) .
- QoQ expense growth as programs advanced: Q4 R&D $21.8M vs $15.4M in Q3 and G&A $5.2M vs $4.1M in Q3, increasing the loss from operations ($26.3M in Q4 vs $18.9M in Q3) .
- No numeric guidance on OpEx trajectories or EPS/Revenue beyond runway; investors must infer burn and cadence from quarterly spend and clinical timelines .
Financial Results
P&L (Actuals)
Balance Sheet Snapshot
Q4 2024 vs S&P Global Consensus
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Note: No earnings call transcript was available in the filings set reviewed; commentary reflects press releases.
Management Commentary
- “We closed 2024 and started 2025 with strong continued momentum, marked by the successful completion of enrollment in our Phase 2 clinical trial of verekitug in patients with CRSwNP in January 2025. We expect to report top-line data from this trial in the second half of 2025, enabling regulatory discussions and preparations for a Phase 3 program in CRSwNP.” — Rand Sutherland, MD, CEO
- “We remain on track to dose the first patient in our COPD program in the second half of 2025 and… expect to report top-line data from our ongoing Phase 2 clinical trial in severe asthma in the second half of 2026.” — Rand Sutherland, MD
- “Our recently completed initial public offering has provided us with sufficient capital to fund our planned operations through 2027…” — Rand Sutherland, MD
Q&A Highlights
- Not available; the company furnished Q4 2024 results via an 8-K press release, and no earnings call transcript was included in the documents reviewed .
Estimates Context
- Q4 2024 revenue of $0.61M beat S&P Global consensus of $0.38M by ~59%; 4 estimates contributed to consensus. EPS consensus was -$0.54; the 8-K did not disclose EPS; reported net loss was $21.2M. Revenue/EPS estimates and counts from S&P Global*. Actual revenue and net loss from the 8-K .
- Q3 2024 context: revenue of $0.61M vs $0.40M consensus; EPS actual -$6.96 vs -$3.65 consensus, reflecting pre-IPO share base dynamics and higher OpEx as programs ramped. Revenue/EPS estimates from S&P Global*; actual revenue/net loss from filings .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Clinical execution de-risks the near-term path: CRSwNP Phase 2 enrollment completion and H2 2025 topline are the primary stock catalysts, with potential Phase 3 initiation thereafter, pending regulators .
- Differentiation thesis persists: first-in-class TSLP receptor antagonism and extended dosing intervals in asthma could be clinically meaningful if Phase 2 confirms potency seen in Phase 1b modeling .
- Balance sheet capacity: $470.5M cash/ST investments supports multi-indication development through 2027, reducing financing overhang during key readouts .
- Expense cadence rising with program activity; watch R&D trajectory and interest income offsets as the company advances asthma/COPD alongside CRSwNP .
- Estimate revisions: Q4 revenue beat may lift near-term collaboration revenue run-rate assumptions; lack of EPS disclosure in the 8-K keeps per-share modeling anchored to OpEx/burn forecasts rather than GAAP EPS noise*. Actuals from filings .
- Near-term trading setup: binary risk accumulates into H2 2025 CRSwNP topline; expect positioning to build as timelines firm and any interim conference updates emerge .
- Medium-term thesis: multi-respiratory franchise potential (CRSwNP, severe asthma, COPD) with a unified mechanism may support platform value if efficacy/dosing advantages are confirmed across indications .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*