UG
UPBOUND GROUP, INC. (UPBD)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025 consolidated revenue was $1.165B (+9.0% y/y), Adjusted EBITDA $123.6M (+5.7% y/y), and non-GAAP diluted EPS $1.00; GAAP EPS was $0.22 due to $53.4M of “special items” including legal accruals and acquisition-related amortization .
- Versus consensus (S&P Global), revenue and non-GAAP EPS were modest beats: $1.165B vs $1.144B and $1.00 vs $0.9825; management tightened FY25 non-GAAP EPS to $4.05–$4.15 and lowered Adjusted EBITDA to $500–$510M from $515–$535M; revenues and FCF were maintained . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Segment drivers: Acima GMV +11% y/y with underwriting tightened after soft vintages and a jewelry mix shift compressing margins; Rent-A-Center comps improved sequentially (-3.6% y/y vs -4.0% in Q2) with 16.2% EBITDA margin; Brigit grew revenue 40% y/y, ARPU +11% y/y, with EBITDA margin of 16.1% as marketing ramped .
- Catalysts: underwriting actions expected to peak Acima loss rate near ~10% in Q4 before improving in Q1’26; bonus depreciation tailwind adds ~$150M cash-tax savings across 2025–2026; leadership additions (new CFO and Chief Growth Officer) to accelerate AI, analytics, and growth initiatives .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
-
What Went Well
- “Eighth consecutive quarter of GMV growth” at Acima (+11% y/y) as applications rose ~13% and marketplace GMV grew >150% y/y; revenue +10.4% y/y .
- Brigit scaled: revenue +40% y/y to $57.7M; ARPU $13.74 (+11.4% y/y), net advance loss 3.3% within low single-digit target while testing new products (line of credit) and channels .
- Rent-A-Center stabilization: comps improved sequentially to -3.6% y/y; deliveries +3.8% y/y; EBITDA margin expanded to 16.2% (+160 bps q/q) on operational efficiencies .
-
What Went Wrong
- Acima margins compressed: LCO rate rose to 9.7% (vs 9.3% in Q2 and 9.2% last year) and EBITDA margin fell to 12.0% (vs 13.3% last year) due to soft monthly vintages and jewelry mix effects .
- GAAP profitability impacted by “special items”: $53.4M of other gains/charges (legal accruals, asset impairment, acquisition-related amortization and compensation) reduced GAAP EPS to $0.22 .
- Brigit EBITDA margin stepped down to 16.1% (from 27.7% in Q3’24 and 28% in Q2) as marketing spend ramped; net profit margin 7.9% vs 20.2% last year .
Financial Results
Segment Breakdown (Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA):
KPIs
Estimates vs Actual (Q3 2025)
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Guidance Changes
Management’s Q4 outlook: Acima GMV mid-single-digit growth, top line up low double digits, LCO rate to peak near ~10% in Q4 before improving in Q1’26; Rent-A-Center low-to-mid single-digit revenue decline y/y with flat/better LCO; Brigit revenue up high-single-digit q/q with low double-digit EBITDA margins .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO commentary: “Acima achieving its eighth consecutive quarter of GMV growth and Brigit delivering over 40% year-over-year increase in revenue… Rent-A-Center same store sales performance improved sequentially and is expected to stabilize further in the fourth quarter.”
- On Acima underwriting: “Recent monthly vintage yields… under pressure… moved to an incrementally more conservative risk stance… actions already proving to be effective in August and September vintages.”
- On mix and margins: “Jewelry sees a higher proportion of customers electing the first early purchase option, which is a lower margin outcome… category is profitable… helps diversify from furniture.”
- Capital allocation: “Bonus depreciation… ~$50M in 2025 and ~$100M in 2026… supports deleveraging, investment, dividend ($1.56 per share) and opportunistic buybacks.”
- Leadership: Appointment of Hal Khouri as CFO effective Nov 10, 2025; responsibilities include financial operations, optimization, capital allocation, IR .
Q&A Highlights
- Acima growth cadence: Underwriting tightening will suppress GMV in Q4 (mid-single-digit guide); management targets high single-digit to low double-digit GMV growth in 2026 as merchant additions and DTC offset macro headwinds .
- Consumer health: Non-prime consumer remains “stressed” amid inflation, slowing wages/job market; underwriting conservative; RAC benefits from prior tightening with stable-to-improving losses .
- RAC improvement drivers: Refer-a-friend, loyalty revamp, pushing online declines to in-store, improved inventory positioning; comps expected to approach flat-to-positive in Q4 .
- Brigit scaling: Strong ARPU and subscriber growth; marketing and new product (line of credit) tests; EBITDA margins to be low double digits near term with growth focus .
- Capital priorities/M&A: Conservatively biasing excess cash to investment and deleveraging; open to small bolt-ons but near-term focus on balance sheet .
Estimates Context
- Q3 2025 actuals beat consensus: Revenue $1.165B vs $1.144B*, non-GAAP EPS $1.00 vs $0.9825*. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Implications: modest positive revisions likely to non-GAAP EPS trajectory; FY25 Adjusted EBITDA guidance lowered suggests sell-side may trim EBITDA, while maintaining revenue/FCF ranges .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Portfolio momentum intact: consolidated revenue +9% y/y, non-GAAP EPS +5.3% y/y amid macro uncertainty; Acima/DTC engine and Brigit subscription model provide diversified growth streams .
- Near-term margin headwinds at Acima should crest in Q4; underwriting actions and mix normalization underpin margin recovery starting Q1’26—watch LCO trend vs the ~10% peak guide .
- Rent-A-Center stabilization is a quiet positive: sequential comp and margin improvement with holiday inventory positioning—potential for Q4 comp inflection .
- Cash flow and balance sheet improving: YTD OCF ~$264M and net leverage 2.9x; bonus depreciation provides ~$150M cash-tax tailwind through 2026, supporting deleveraging and dividend .
- Leadership upgrades (CFO, CGO) + AI roadmap should accelerate data-driven growth and cost efficiencies across brands—monitor execution on tap-to-lease and cross-sell .
- Guidance reset lowers FY25 EBITDA range; focus shifts to quality of earnings and unit economics as Brigit scales and Acima optimizes decisioning—stock may react to evidence of LCO moderation and holiday GMV .
- Watch merchant wins and DTC scale: marketplace GMV +150% y/y; reduced integration dependency broadens TAM and deepens customer engagement—sustained GMV growth with improving cohorts is key .
Notes on non-GAAP and adjustments: Q3 GAAP EPS ($0.22) reflects $53.4M of special items (legal accruals, asset impairment, acquired intangibles amortization, Brigit equity awards/comp), with non-GAAP diluted EPS at $1.00 after reconciliation .