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UPBOUND GROUP, INC. (UPBD)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 consolidated revenue was $1.165B (+9.0% y/y), Adjusted EBITDA $123.6M (+5.7% y/y), and non-GAAP diluted EPS $1.00; GAAP EPS was $0.22 due to $53.4M of “special items” including legal accruals and acquisition-related amortization .
  • Versus consensus (S&P Global), revenue and non-GAAP EPS were modest beats: $1.165B vs $1.144B and $1.00 vs $0.9825; management tightened FY25 non-GAAP EPS to $4.05–$4.15 and lowered Adjusted EBITDA to $500–$510M from $515–$535M; revenues and FCF were maintained . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Segment drivers: Acima GMV +11% y/y with underwriting tightened after soft vintages and a jewelry mix shift compressing margins; Rent-A-Center comps improved sequentially (-3.6% y/y vs -4.0% in Q2) with 16.2% EBITDA margin; Brigit grew revenue 40% y/y, ARPU +11% y/y, with EBITDA margin of 16.1% as marketing ramped .
  • Catalysts: underwriting actions expected to peak Acima loss rate near ~10% in Q4 before improving in Q1’26; bonus depreciation tailwind adds ~$150M cash-tax savings across 2025–2026; leadership additions (new CFO and Chief Growth Officer) to accelerate AI, analytics, and growth initiatives .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • “Eighth consecutive quarter of GMV growth” at Acima (+11% y/y) as applications rose ~13% and marketplace GMV grew >150% y/y; revenue +10.4% y/y .
    • Brigit scaled: revenue +40% y/y to $57.7M; ARPU $13.74 (+11.4% y/y), net advance loss 3.3% within low single-digit target while testing new products (line of credit) and channels .
    • Rent-A-Center stabilization: comps improved sequentially to -3.6% y/y; deliveries +3.8% y/y; EBITDA margin expanded to 16.2% (+160 bps q/q) on operational efficiencies .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Acima margins compressed: LCO rate rose to 9.7% (vs 9.3% in Q2 and 9.2% last year) and EBITDA margin fell to 12.0% (vs 13.3% last year) due to soft monthly vintages and jewelry mix effects .
    • GAAP profitability impacted by “special items”: $53.4M of other gains/charges (legal accruals, asset impairment, acquisition-related amortization and compensation) reduced GAAP EPS to $0.22 .
    • Brigit EBITDA margin stepped down to 16.1% (from 27.7% in Q3’24 and 28% in Q2) as marketing spend ramped; net profit margin 7.9% vs 20.2% last year .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$1.069 $1.158 $1.165
GAAP Operating Profit ($USD Millions)$70.1 $50.7 $52.8
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$116.9 $133.2 $123.6
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)10.9% 11.5% 10.6%
Net Earnings ($USD Millions)$30.9 $15.5 $13.2
Net Profit Margin (%)2.9% 1.3% 1.1%
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.55 $0.26 $0.22
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.95 $1.12 $1.00
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities ($USD Millions)$106.2 $26.1 $89.9
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$88.3 $(10.4) $50.2

Segment Breakdown (Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA):

SegmentMetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
AcimaRevenue ($M)$566.2 $619.0 $625.3
Adj. EBITDA ($M)$75.3 $93.3 $75.0
Rent-A-CenterRevenue ($M)$483.6 $467.1 $461.1
Adj. EBITDA ($M)$79.0 $68.4 $74.7
BrigitRevenue ($M)$51.9 $52.0 $57.7
Adj. EBITDA ($M)$14.4 $14.0 $9.3
MexicoRevenue ($M)$19.0 N/A$20.7
Adj. EBITDA ($M)$1.3 $2.4 $1.9

KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Acima GMV ($M)$436.1 $522.1 $484.0
Acima Lease Charge-Off Rate (%)9.2% 9.3% 9.7%
Acima 60+ Day Past Due Rate (%)13.4% 11.8% 12.7%
Rent-A-Center Same Store Sales (%)+2.6% -4.0% -3.6%
Rent-A-Center Lease Charge-Off Rate (%)4.9% 4.7% 4.7%
Rent-A-Center 30+ Day Past Due Rate (%)3.4% 2.7% 3.3%
Rent-A-Center Adj. EBITDA Margin (%)16.3% 14.6% 16.2%
Brigit ARPU ($/month)$13.45 $13.45 $13.74
Brigit Net Advance Loss Rate (%)2.6% 2.6% 3.3%

Estimates vs Actual (Q3 2025)

MetricConsensusActualBeat/Miss
Revenue ($USD Billions)$1.144*$1.165 Beat
Non-GAAP EPS ($)$0.9825*$1.00 Beat

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (7/31/2025)Current Guidance (10/30/2025)Change
Revenues ($B)FY 2025$4.60–$4.75 $4.60–$4.75 Maintained
Adj. EBITDA ex SBC ($M)FY 2025$515–$535 $500–$510 Lowered
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)FY 2025$4.05–$4.40 $4.05–$4.15 Tightened (lower top end)
Free Cash Flow ($M)FY 2025$150–$200 $150–$200 Maintained

Management’s Q4 outlook: Acima GMV mid-single-digit growth, top line up low double digits, LCO rate to peak near ~10% in Q4 before improving in Q1’26; Rent-A-Center low-to-mid single-digit revenue decline y/y with flat/better LCO; Brigit revenue up high-single-digit q/q with low double-digit EBITDA margins .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025)Previous Mentions (Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
AI/Technology initiativesAcima AI-powered “leasability engine”, marketplace personalization; RAC digital enhancements (Google AI search, chatbot), Cash App payments Agentics AI for real-time sales coaching; tap-to-lease pilot underway; direct-to-consumer marketplace scaling Acima adds tap-to-lease virtual card; account mgmt upgrades; refer-a-friend; CGO hired to accelerate data analytics/AI use cases Expanding scope and execution
Supply chain & tariffs/macroLimited tariff exposure; weekly payment/term levers to offset costs; consumer stable but cautious No tariff-driven price increases yet; potential inflation tailwinds via trade-down; consumer stressed but resilient Macro uncertainty; slowing job growth; tariff-related price pressures; consumer confidence low; nimble pricing/term adjustments planned Macro headwinds; mitigation via pricing/terms
Product performance mixFurniture/appliances >66% RAC revenue; Acima furniture ~40% GMV; DTC up ~80% y/y (Q1) Acima DTC +130% y/y; jewelry rising share; returning customers >40% GMV Jewelry mix lifts GMV but lower margin (early purchase option); furniture still largest (~40% GMV) Mix shift toward jewelry; margin impact
Regional/merchant winsAcima pilot expansion to Mexico leveraging RAC footprint Extending large account exclusivity; pipeline strong; diversified SMB/regional wins Milestone: 100,000th merchant location; Living Spaces onboarded; marketplace GMV +150% y/y Merchant network scaling
Regulatory/legalCFPB matter dismissed; multi-state AG and NY AG matters remain Added $31.7M legal accrual; McBurnie class action settlement in principle Q3 special items include ~$12.6M legal matters Legacy matters winding down; ongoing accruals
Brigit R&D executionStrong subscriber and ARPU growth; integration roadmap; cash flow underwriting capabilities Marketing tests across new channels; line of credit pilot up to $500 Line of credit beta; expanded channel mix; marketing ramp; targeting mid-teens EBITDA margins Scaling product set and acquisition

Management Commentary

  • CEO commentary: “Acima achieving its eighth consecutive quarter of GMV growth and Brigit delivering over 40% year-over-year increase in revenue… Rent-A-Center same store sales performance improved sequentially and is expected to stabilize further in the fourth quarter.”
  • On Acima underwriting: “Recent monthly vintage yields… under pressure… moved to an incrementally more conservative risk stance… actions already proving to be effective in August and September vintages.”
  • On mix and margins: “Jewelry sees a higher proportion of customers electing the first early purchase option, which is a lower margin outcome… category is profitable… helps diversify from furniture.”
  • Capital allocation: “Bonus depreciation… ~$50M in 2025 and ~$100M in 2026… supports deleveraging, investment, dividend ($1.56 per share) and opportunistic buybacks.”
  • Leadership: Appointment of Hal Khouri as CFO effective Nov 10, 2025; responsibilities include financial operations, optimization, capital allocation, IR .

Q&A Highlights

  • Acima growth cadence: Underwriting tightening will suppress GMV in Q4 (mid-single-digit guide); management targets high single-digit to low double-digit GMV growth in 2026 as merchant additions and DTC offset macro headwinds .
  • Consumer health: Non-prime consumer remains “stressed” amid inflation, slowing wages/job market; underwriting conservative; RAC benefits from prior tightening with stable-to-improving losses .
  • RAC improvement drivers: Refer-a-friend, loyalty revamp, pushing online declines to in-store, improved inventory positioning; comps expected to approach flat-to-positive in Q4 .
  • Brigit scaling: Strong ARPU and subscriber growth; marketing and new product (line of credit) tests; EBITDA margins to be low double digits near term with growth focus .
  • Capital priorities/M&A: Conservatively biasing excess cash to investment and deleveraging; open to small bolt-ons but near-term focus on balance sheet .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 actuals beat consensus: Revenue $1.165B vs $1.144B*, non-GAAP EPS $1.00 vs $0.9825*. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Implications: modest positive revisions likely to non-GAAP EPS trajectory; FY25 Adjusted EBITDA guidance lowered suggests sell-side may trim EBITDA, while maintaining revenue/FCF ranges .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Portfolio momentum intact: consolidated revenue +9% y/y, non-GAAP EPS +5.3% y/y amid macro uncertainty; Acima/DTC engine and Brigit subscription model provide diversified growth streams .
  • Near-term margin headwinds at Acima should crest in Q4; underwriting actions and mix normalization underpin margin recovery starting Q1’26—watch LCO trend vs the ~10% peak guide .
  • Rent-A-Center stabilization is a quiet positive: sequential comp and margin improvement with holiday inventory positioning—potential for Q4 comp inflection .
  • Cash flow and balance sheet improving: YTD OCF ~$264M and net leverage 2.9x; bonus depreciation provides ~$150M cash-tax tailwind through 2026, supporting deleveraging and dividend .
  • Leadership upgrades (CFO, CGO) + AI roadmap should accelerate data-driven growth and cost efficiencies across brands—monitor execution on tap-to-lease and cross-sell .
  • Guidance reset lowers FY25 EBITDA range; focus shifts to quality of earnings and unit economics as Brigit scales and Acima optimizes decisioning—stock may react to evidence of LCO moderation and holiday GMV .
  • Watch merchant wins and DTC scale: marketplace GMV +150% y/y; reduced integration dependency broadens TAM and deepens customer engagement—sustained GMV growth with improving cohorts is key .

Notes on non-GAAP and adjustments: Q3 GAAP EPS ($0.22) reflects $53.4M of special items (legal accruals, asset impairment, acquired intangibles amortization, Brigit equity awards/comp), with non-GAAP diluted EPS at $1.00 after reconciliation .