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UPBOUND GROUP, INC. (UPBD)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue was $1.079B (+6.0% y/y), GAAP diluted EPS $0.55 versus $(0.21) in Q4 2023, and non-GAAP diluted EPS $1.05 (+$0.24 y/y); Adjusted EBITDA rose 14.1% to $122.8M while consolidated lease charge-off rate improved 20 bps to 7.3% .
  • Segment performance was mixed: Acima GMV +15.3% y/y with revenue +14.4% and LCO down to 9.0%; Rent-A-Center revenue declined 3.3% y/y but Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 17.0% amid lower operating expenses .
  • FY 2025 guidance initiated: revenue $4.50–$4.75B, non-GAAP EPS $3.90–$4.40, Adjusted EBITDA (ex-SBC) $500–$540M, FCF $150–$200M; Q1 2025 non-GAAP EPS guided to $0.90–$1.00 .
  • Potential stock catalysts: CEO succession (CFO Fahmi Karam to become CEO on June 1, 2025), dividend raised 5%+ to $0.39/qtr, and Brigit acquisition closed Jan 31, 2025 to accelerate digital financial health cross-sell and underwriting enhancements .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Acima delivered its fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit GMV growth (+15.3% y/y), with revenue +14.4% y/y and LCO improving to 9.0%; management highlighted expanding merchant roster and higher DTC marketplace contribution .
  • Rent-A-Center Adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 17.0% (14.5% prior year) on lower operating expenses; GAAP operating profit reached $69.7M (15.7% margin) despite revenue headwinds .
  • Consolidated operating discipline: GAAP operating expenses fell to 39.8% of revenue (from 44.9%), driving operating margin expansion (7.3% vs 5.5%) and non-GAAP EPS to $1.05; CEO: “Acima’s momentum continued…largest-ever adjusted EBITDA” .

What Went Wrong

  • Rent-A-Center revenue declined 3.3% y/y; LCO increased 80 bps to 5.0% and store count fell to 1,728 after franchising and consolidation actions, pressuring top line despite margin gains .
  • Acima gross margin contracted 260 bps y/y due to a higher merchandise sales mix (more 90-day purchase option elections) and the ANOW-to-Acima platform conversion impact .
  • Q4 cash flow: net cash from operations (-$61.9M) and FCF (-$74.0M) were negative as growth funding and working capital needs weighed versus Q3’s positive FCF .

Financial Results

Consolidated vs Prior Periods and Estimates

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$1,018.1 $1,068.9 $1,079.2
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$(0.21) $0.55 $0.55
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.81 $0.95 $1.05
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$107.6 $116.9 $122.8
Net Profit Margin (%)(1.1%) 2.9% 2.9%
Lease Charge-Off Rate (%)7.5% 7.4% 7.3%

Note: Wall Street consensus from S&P Global for Q4 2024 was not available via our data connection at time of analysis. We attempted retrieval but could not obtain the figures. As such, we cannot state beat/miss versus consensus for Q4 2024.

Segment Breakdown

Segment MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Rent-A-Center Revenue ($MM)$459.3 $458.7 $444.0
Rent-A-Center Adj. EBITDA ($MM)$66.7 $74.7 $75.4
Rent-A-Center Adj. EBITDA Margin (%)14.5% 16.3% 17.0%
Rent-A-Center LCO (%)4.2% 4.9% 5.0%
Rent-A-Center 30+ Past Due (%)3.1% 3.4% 3.4%
Acima GMV ($MM)$475.2 $436.1 $547.8
Acima GMV Y/Y (%)19.0% 13.0% 15.3%
Acima Revenue ($MM)$507.9 $566.2 $581.1
Acima Adj. EBITDA ($MM)$75.0 $75.3 $80.9
Acima Adj. EBITDA Margin (%)14.8% 13.3% 13.9%
Acima LCO (%)9.9% 9.2% 9.0%
Acima 60+ Past Due (%)13.0% 13.4% 13.3%
Mexico Revenue ($MM)$19.1 $—$18.3
Franchising Revenue ($MM)$31.8 $—$35.8

KPIs

KPIQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
On-Rent Rental Merchandise, Net ($MM)$1,109.9 $1,016.7 $1,134.9
RAC Lease Portfolio – Monthly Value ($MM)$145.0 $132.2 $136.8
Corporate-Owned Store Count (U.S. & PR)1,839 1,726 1,728
Net Cash from Operating Activities ($MM)$(19.7) $106.2 $(61.9)
Free Cash Flow ($MM)$(36.9) $88.3 $(74.0)

Non-GAAP EPS excludes “special items” such as Acima acquired assets amortization/depreciation, legal matters, transaction fees, accelerated stock comp, and discrete tax items per reconciliations .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Consolidated Revenue ($B)FY 2025N/A$4.50 – $4.75 Initiated
Adjusted EBITDA ex-SBC ($MM)FY 2025N/A$500 – $540 Initiated
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)FY 2025N/A$3.90 – $4.40 Initiated
Free Cash Flow ($MM)FY 2025N/A$150 – $200 Initiated
Consolidated Revenue ($B)Q1 2025N/A$1.05 – $1.15 Initiated
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)Q1 2025N/A$0.90 – $1.00 Initiated
Tax Rate (%)FY 2025N/A~26% Initiated
Diluted Shares (MM)FY 2025N/A~58.9 incl. ~2.7M Brigit shares Initiated
Acima (GMV/Rev growth; EBITDA margin)FY 2025N/AHigh single-digit to low double-digit growth; margins improving toward mid-teens Initiated
Rent-A-Center (Revenue; EBITDA margin)FY 2025N/ARevenue down low single digits; margins mid-teens, down y/y Initiated
Brigit (Revenue; Adj. EBITDA)FY 2025N/ARev $215–$230M; Adj. EBITDA $25–$30M (11/12 months consolidated) Initiated
Dividend per Share (Quarterly)Ongoing$0.37 in 2024 $0.39 (+5%+) Raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Prior-2)Q3 2024 (Prior-1)Q4 2024 (Current)Trend
AI/TechnologyLaunched cloud-native POS (RecPad), modular e-commerce; AI-powered leasability engine; Google partnerships for personalization Generative AI on rentacenter.com; AI-powered Acima marketplace onboarding; virtual lease card roadmap Rack Bed POS improvements; continued Google work; marketplace added Walmart/Amazon/Target; ongoing virtual lease card testing Scaling digital initiatives
Macro/Trade-downTrade-down lifting Acima apps +35%; selective underwriting; revenue guidance raised Trade-down continued; Acima LCO improved; RAC seasonality headwinds but margins up Trade-down persists; Acima margins expected to improve in 2025; cautious underwriting posture Stable-to-improving risk profile
Product performanceFurniture softer industry-wide; diversification (jewelry, wheel & tire) offsets Furniture/e-com mix increases; category diversification Jewelry and wheel/tire strong; marketplace adds large brands Diversification benefits
Regulatory/legalFiled suit vs CFPB; disclosed investigation context Legal accrual (~$7.5M) estimate commentary; cautious disclosures Special items in Q4 include legal matters; management expects ongoing resolution; competitor case dismissal cited Continuing but contained
Regional/eventsRAC store consolidation; NY franchise sale announced RAC impacted by competitor liquidations; e-com revenue 26% Hurricanes Helene/Milton modest impact; footprint optimization largely complete Operationally manageable

Management Commentary

  • CEO (Mitch Fadel): “Acima’s momentum continued…delivered over 17% growth this year on both GMV and revenue, while generating its largest-ever adjusted EBITDA…we welcomed Brigit…” .
  • CFO (Fahmi Karam): “Upbound delivered strong results in Q4…we met or exceeded annual guidance…In 2025, we expect stronger cash flow…ongoing commitment to reducing our debt” .
  • On 2025 priorities: focus on merchants, customers, and margins (Acima); underwriting discipline; digital evolution and omni-channel efficiency (RAC); cross-marketing and cash-flow underwriting synergies (Brigit) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Consumer/Underwriting: Core customer remains under pressure; conservative posture; Acima benefits from trade-down while RAC does not see direct waterfall effect .
  • Acima margin drivers: Expect margin improvement via lower losses and operating leverage; near-term gross profit impacted by early purchase mix; sequential margin uptick already evident .
  • Merchant pipeline: Active and robust, with recent wins among top-50 furniture retailers; integration speed and service drive share gains .
  • External dynamics: Furniture retailer bankruptcies created Q4 liquidation headwind but potential 2025 upside for RAC and Acima .
  • Tax season: Early indications of higher refunds vs prior year support consumer demand; management constructive .
  • Legal: No material update; management confident in position; notes competitor’s similar case largely dismissed .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was not retrievable at the time of analysis; therefore we cannot state beat/miss versus Street for Q4 2024. Management did not cite specific consensus comparisons on the Q4 call .
  • Given new FY 2025 guidance, Street estimates may need to adjust higher for revenue and EPS if Acima margin improvements and Brigit contributions materialize as guided .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Acima is the growth engine: double-digit GMV and revenue growth with improving loss rates and a clear path to margin normalization; leverage merchant adds, DTC marketplace, and underwriting discipline .
  • RAC resilience: despite revenue pressure, margin execution was strong; footprint optimization largely complete, with digital conversion supporting mid-teens margins in 2025 even as expenses normalize .
  • FY 2025 setup: Initiated guidance points to top-line growth, EPS expansion, and stronger FCF; delivery hinges on Acima margin recovery and Brigit integration/cross-sell .
  • Capital allocation: dividend raised to $0.39; deleveraging remains a priority with target net leverage ≤2x over time supported by improved FCF .
  • Regulatory risk monitored but quantified via special items; no new adverse developments disclosed in Q4; watch for resolution trajectory in 2025 .
  • Near-term trading: Positive momentum likely tied to Acima margin trajectory and validation of Q1 guidance ($0.90–$1.00 EPS); CEO transition adds governance spotlight but continuity assured .
  • Medium-term thesis: Digital-first platform across Acima/Brigit/RAC.com expands TAM and relevance; cross-sell and underwriting data advantages can compound growth and margin over 2025–2026 .