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UR-ENERGY INC (URG)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 had no product sales; diluted EPS was -$0.03 vs consensus -$0.02, a modest miss, while ramp-up KPIs improved materially (drummed 83,066 lbs; wellfield flow +44% since early March to >2,800 gpm) .
  • Regulatory catalyst: EPA aquifer exemption received May 1, 2025, providing final approval for Lost Creek expansion across LC East/KM horizons; enables mining in additional units and supports multi-year volume growth .
  • 2025 delivery guidance lowered to 440,000 lbs at $61.56/lb for ~$27.1M revenue, reflecting deferral of 300,000 lbs to H1 2026; contract book remains multi-year with seven agreements through 2030 .
  • Operational momentum: processing circuits stabilized (both dryers and filter presses operating), safety culture improved, and inventory at converter increased to 368,540 lbs at Q1-end; 403,827 lbs post-quarter .
  • Liquidity: cash was $86.0M at March 31 and $66.0M as of May 2 following ongoing construction and operations; focus remains on safe, compliant execution across Lost Creek and Shirley Basin .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Lost Creek ramp-up progressing: “wellfield flow rate has increased by 44% since the beginning of March 2025 and is now routinely over 2,800 gallons per minute” with dryers operating routinely and improved process consistency .
  • Final regulatory milestone achieved: “issuance of the aquifer exemption… is the final approval required to mine within the specified geologic horizons” for Lost Creek expansion, unlocking additional mine units .
  • Multi-year commercial visibility: seven sales agreements now in place through 2030 with escalation and some market-related pricing, underpinning 2025 delivery of 440,000 lbs at $61.56/lb (~$27.1M revenue) .

What Went Wrong

  • No Q1 product sales; deliveries are weighted to later periods, contributing to negative EPS and margin pressure in the quarter .
  • Cost structure remains heavy during ramp-up and with non-produced inventory carried; 2024 gross losses highlight sensitivity to purchased/borrowed pounds, though Q1-2025 operations improved sequentially .
  • 2025 delivery guidance lowered from prior 700–730k lbs to 440k lbs after deferring 300k lbs to H1 2026, reducing near-term revenue vs prior expectations .

Financial Results

P&L and Margins (Actuals)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$6.40*$22.65*N/A* (“No product sales”)
Diluted EPS ($USD)-$0.023*-$0.057*-$0.030*
Net Income ($USD Millions)-$8.00*-$20.06*-$10.90*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)-$17.75*-$22.36*-$14.56*
Gross Profit Margin (%)-87.08%*-87.08%*N/A*
EBITDA Margin (%)-239.11%*-98.68%*N/A*
Net Income Margin (%)N/A*-88.56%*N/A*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Actual vs Consensus (Q1 2025)

MetricConsensusActual
Revenue ($USD Millions)$1.54*N/A* (“No product sales”)
Diluted EPS ($USD)-$0.02*-$0.03*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIs: U3O8 Production

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Pounds captured (lb)75,075 81,771 74,479
Pounds drummed (lb)71,804 74,006 83,066
Pounds shipped (lb)67,488 66,526 106,301

Inventory (lbs)

Inventory CategoryQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
In-process (lb)90,140 39,169 29,700
Plant (lb)26,580 33,919 10,772
Conversion – produced (lb)40,713 12,239 118,540
Conversion – non-produced (lb)—250,000 250,000
Total (lb)157,433 335,327 409,012

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
U3O8 deliveries (lbs)2025700,000–730,000 lbs (three term agreements) 440,000 lbs Lowered
Avg price per lb2025N/A$61.56/lb Introduced
Revenue from U3O8 sales2025N/A~$27.1M Introduced
Shirley Basin startupEarly 2026Early 2026 Early 2026 Maintained
Annual production capacity (with SB)Early 2026~2.2M lbs/yr ~2.2M lbs/yr Maintained
Lost Creek expansion (aquifer exemption)2025Pending Approved May 1, 2025 Achieved

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: No Q1 2025 earnings call transcript was available; themes drawn from the company’s Q1 materials and prior quarter releases.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2: Q4 2024)Previous Mentions (Q-1: Q3 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Production rampRepairs on dryers; HH 2-12 online in Jan; Q4 captured 81,771 lbs Production increasing QoQ; sold 100k lbs in Q3 Wellfield flow +44%; both dryers operating; drummed 83,066 lbs Improving
Regulatory approvalsExpansion pending —EPA aquifer exemption final approval received Positive inflection
Contract book & pricingMulti-year deals; 2025 initially 700–730k lbs 740k lbs anticipated in 2025; strong term pricing 2025 set at 440k lbs, $61.56/lb; 7 agreements through 2030 Near-term lowered, long-term intact
Macro/tariffsTrump admin policies; AI-driven power demand; limited tariff impact so far Strong uranium fundamentals; supplier response slow Section 232 probe into uranium imports launched; potential positive impact Supportive
Safety & operationsStaff retention improved; both dryers repair sequence —Safety culture improved; no recordable incidents YTD Improving
Shirley Basin buildoutMonitor wells complete; major construction in 2025; startup early 2026 Buildout to 2.2M lbs capacity Enclosure, IX vessels, substation upgrade; MU1 drilling mobilized On schedule

Management Commentary

  • “The issuance of the aquifer exemption is the culmination of many years of thorough analysis and is the final approval required to mine within the specified geologic horizons.” — John Cash, CEO .
  • “We anticipate that we will deliver and sell 440,000 pounds U3O8 at an average price per pound sold of $61.56 in 2025 from which we expect to realize revenues of $27.1 million.” .
  • “Our wellfield flow rate has increased by 44% since the beginning of March 2025 and is now routinely over 2,800 gallons per minute… Both dryers operating routinely and other process circuits performing more consistently.” .

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q1 2025 earnings call transcript or Q&A was available in the document set searched; thus, there were no accessible analyst questions or real-time management clarifications for the quarter [earnings-call-transcript search returned none].

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 EPS was -$0.03 vs Wall Street consensus -$0.02, a $0.01 miss; revenue had consensus $1.54M but the company reported no product sales in the quarter, implying a miss vs expectations .
  • Given lowered 2025 deliveries (440k lbs) and timing of shipments, estimates for quarterly revenue/EPS likely shift toward later periods; cost optimization and process stabilization at Lost Creek should factor into revisions .

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term earnings cadence is shipment-timed: Q1 had no sales; deliveries are planned across 2025 totaling 440k lbs at $61.56/lb (~$27.1M), with more volume expected to be recognized later in the year .
  • Regulatory de-risking achieved: EPA aquifer exemption finalizes Lost Creek expansion, enabling additional mine units and supporting higher sustained production as processes stabilize .
  • Ramp-up momentum is real: plant circuits now at design levels; flow rates and drummed volumes improved; safety performance strengthened—key operational KPIs are trending positively .
  • Guidance reset reduces 2025 volume vs prior expectations; however, multi-year contract book and Shirley Basin progress toward early 2026 startup underpin medium-term capacity to ~2.2M lbs/yr .
  • Watch catalysts: shipment execution in Q2–Q4, further Lost Creek header houses, Shirley Basin construction milestones, and potential Section 232 outcomes affecting domestic uranium pricing/sourcing .
  • Liquidity sufficient for execution: $86.0M cash at March 31 and $66.0M on May 2 supports continued construction and ramp-up; monitor cash burn vs delivery schedules .
  • Estimate path: With Q1 miss and lower delivery guide, consensus likely shifts later; improving operational efficiency and regulatory greenlights provide offsetting confidence for medium-term trajectory .