Fleet Growth & Productivity
Q: What's the 2024 outlook for fleet growth and productivity?
A: United Rentals plans approximately 4–5% fleet growth in 2024, with $550 million of net growth after replacements. They feel confident due to supply chain improvements and strong positioning. They expect positive fleet productivity in 2024, driven by a positive rate environment and industry discipline, despite some inflationary pressures.

Capital Allocation & M&A
Q: How will you balance capital allocation between shareholder returns and M&A?
A: United Rentals intends to return a large majority of free cash flow to shareholders, but M&A remains a priority. With $7 billion of capacity even after shareholder returns and lower leverage, they are open to acquisitions that add value and new products. Excess capital will be used to augment shareholder value without compromising M&A opportunities.

Used Equipment Sales Impact
Q: How will used equipment sales normalization affect margins?
A: As recovery rates normalize from previous highs (from $0.74 on the dollar in 2022 to an expected $0.60 in 2024), margins will be impacted. United Rentals anticipates flat margins year-over-year excluding used equipment, due to this normalization and investments in growth initiatives.

Free Cash Flow Sustainability
Q: Is $2 billion the new baseline for free cash flow?
A: While not providing specific long-term guidance, management feels confident in sustaining strong free cash flow generation similar to recent years, reflecting the cash-generative nature of the business and normalized free cash margin.

Manufacturing & Industrial Outlook
Q: What is the outlook for manufacturing and industrial sectors in 2024?
A: United Rentals expects these sectors to continue being strong growth drivers in 2024, supported by ongoing mega projects, including those in semiconductors, EVs, and upcoming LNG opportunities. Industrial manufacturing was the largest growing vertical in Q4 2023.

Dividend Growth Policy
Q: How will dividends grow over time?
A: The company aims to grow dividends in line with long-term earnings growth, aspiring to join the "dividend aristocrats." While not following a strict formula, they intend to support a growing dividend consistent with the company's earnings power.

Investments Impacting Margins
Q: How will investments in growth initiatives affect margins?
A: Investments in 50+ cold-starts in Specialty and technology will weigh on incrementals in 2024, resulting in flow-through in the 40% range. These are strategic, long-term investments with strong ROIs that management won't forgo to meet short-term margin targets.

Tax Legislation Impact
Q: How will potential tax changes affect cash taxes?
A: If the proposed restoration of 100% bonus depreciation passes, it could provide several hundred million dollars of incremental cash flow, even retroactively for 2023. Without it, cash taxes are expected to increase by about $200 million in 2024 due to the expiration of prior benefits.

Ahern & GFN Integration
Q: What's the status of Ahern and GFN integration plans?
A: The Ahern integration is complete, with targeted synergies achieved ahead of schedule. There is minimal margin uplift expected in 2024 from it. For GFN, they are ahead of plan to double the business in five years, expecting to achieve it sooner than initially projected.

Rental Rates & Industry Discipline
Q: How are rental rates expected to hold up in 2024?
A: Management feels rental rates will remain positive due to continued industry discipline, rising equipment prices, and a mature market environment. They believe declining rates are neither feasible nor likely, supporting positive fleet productivity.

Fleet Age & CapEx Plans
Q: What's your fleet age and CapEx outlook?
A: Fleet age is back to pre-COVID levels at just over 52 months, adjusted for longer-lived assets. They plan to invest $3.5 billion in CapEx in 2024, with an expected $2.5 billion in fleet disposals, which will further improve fleet age and provide operational flexibility.

Infrastructure Bill Influence
Q: Are infrastructure funds flowing and projects starting?
A: While major projects from the infrastructure bill are in early stages, United Rentals has seen awards made in 2023 and expects more shovel-ready work ahead. They anticipate infrastructure spending to contribute to growth over the next few years, with projects like airports and roadways already underway.

Cold-Starts Focus Areas
Q: What Specialty areas are targeted for cold-starts?
A: The 50 cold-starts planned for 2024 will focus on Reliable Onsite Services, Fluid Solutions, and Mobile Storage. These areas are expected to drive continued double-digit growth in Specialty, capitalizing on market opportunities.

Mega Projects Progress
Q: Are mega projects moving forward as expected?
A: Mega projects are progressing, with some of the largest projects already underway and utilizing equipment. United Rentals is optimistic about multiyear tailwinds from projects in sectors like LNG, infrastructure, and manufacturing, seeing minimal cancellations or delays.

Customer Confidence & Demand
Q: What are customers saying about future demand?
A: Surveys indicate continued positive sentiment, especially among larger customers. While growth in local markets has slowed to mid- to low-single digits, overall customer confidence remains strong, with an exceptionally small fraction expecting declines.